RugbyRebels

Banquo wrote:

Which Tyler wrote:Fuck!

dont believe it tbh

I don't want to believe it, but I lose £5 for every majority seat Boris takes over 30, might be 32

Recount at safe labour seat. Could be in the right ball park

Oh god. Fuck this.

The nonsense coming out of the Labour Party is atrocious. Good riddance if they’re the kind of people in the party...

The Tories ran the campaign in brexit, the press ran the campaign on brexit, it’s all brexit, ffs.

Leave constituencies are voting to leave. Is that so hard to understand?

Right. That's the last news I want to see for approximately five years.

Puja wrote:

Mellsblue wrote:

Puja wrote:
But why would anyone want to? Best case scenario, they get one extra vote and don't get caught, woooo!


We have effectively zero voter fraud - 6 alleged (not even confirmed!) cases over two elections is statistically negligible. Whether it's a despicable Tory plot or not, any solution will end up disenfranchising poorer people more significantly than richer people and end up losing thousands of votes to get rid of 6 dodgy ones over 2 elections. We probably lose more to counting errors!

Puja

What are you basing this disenfranchising on? There’s no policy yet. I’ve just shown that my council will provide a free second piece of non-photography ID, via a home visit I believe, with the first being the polling card. How is that disenfranchising anybody?
In essence, my point is that some more hysterical parts of the media have decided it’s a Tory plot to disenfranchise people when the trials show that’s not the case and there’s no actually policy detail to base the hysteria on.
Over and out. Let’s enjoy the election coverage. We are all going to political hell.

Quite apart from the people who would struggle to acquire even free ID provided with a home visit because of being trans, homeless, couch-surfing, living on a boat, mental health issues meaning they're not able to have someone come for a home visit, students registered to vote at uni/at home but not being physically present at the time, etc, I think we can all agree that having two pieces of ID is more difficult than not having two pieces of ID, which means that some people who would vote without ID will not vote with ID. I don't get a policy that reduces voter turnout in order to solve a practically non-existent problem.

But you raise a good point - let's all stop arguing and "enjoy" the election coverage.

Puja

Agreed.

Can I just say that the good burghers of North Down are sending our new Alliance Party MP over to your Reichstag to bring a bit of democratic rigour to this whole sorry debacle.

Stom wrote:The nonsense coming out of the Labour Party is atrocious. Good riddance if they’re the kind of people in the party...

The Tories ran the campaign in brexit, the press ran the campaign on brexit, it’s all brexit, ffs.

Leave constituencies are voting to leave. Is that so hard to understand?

It would be a mistake to think it's only Brexit. Momentum/Militant is a problem even once Corbyn steps down for an awful lot of potential Labour voters

Digby wrote:

Stom wrote:The nonsense coming out of the Labour Party is atrocious. Good riddance if they’re the kind of people in the party...

The Tories ran the campaign in brexit, the press ran the campaign on brexit, it’s all brexit, ffs.

Leave constituencies are voting to leave. Is that so hard to understand?

It would be a mistake to think it's only Brexit. Momentum/Militant is a problem even once Corbyn steps down for an awful lot of potential Labour voters

Agreed. Listen to Cooper and Mann if in doubt. There’s a schism between metropolitan Labour and it’s town based (former) hard core.

Turnout iffy as well- demographics will be fascinating. There were an awful lot more pensioners in the queue than I’ve seen before locally

Old people shouldn’t be allowed to vote.

Stom wrote:The nonsense coming out of the Labour Party is atrocious. Good riddance if they’re the kind of people in the party...

The Tories ran the campaign in brexit, the press ran the campaign on brexit, it’s all brexit, ffs.

Leave constituencies are voting to leave. Is that so hard to understand?

After losing 59 seats, losing 7.9% of votes and losing seats in traditionally staunch Labour seats they really are over estimating their "popular support". To claim "huge popular support" as Corbyn put it when they have been pumped it laughable.

They'd have been wiped out in Scotland but for Ian Murray having local support for him as an MP rather than the party.

Big D wrote:

Stom wrote:The nonsense coming out of the Labour Party is atrocious. Good riddance if they’re the kind of people in the party...

The Tories ran the campaign in brexit, the press ran the campaign on brexit, it’s all brexit, ffs.

Leave constituencies are voting to leave. Is that so hard to understand?

After losing 59 seats, losing 7.9% of votes and losing seats in traditionally staunch Labour seats they really are over estimating their "popular support". To claim "huge popular support" as Corbyn put it when they have been pumped it laughable.

They'd have been wiped out in Scotland but for Ian Murray having local support for him as an MP rather than the party.

Chairman Ian Lavery proclaims the manifesto as the greatest document ever written by Labour.

Big D wrote:

Stom wrote:The nonsense coming out of the Labour Party is atrocious. Good riddance if they’re the kind of people in the party...

The Tories ran the campaign in brexit, the press ran the campaign on brexit, it’s all brexit, ffs.

Leave constituencies are voting to leave. Is that so hard to understand?

After losing 59 seats, losing 7.9% of votes and losing seats in traditionally staunch Labour seats they really are over estimating their "popular support". To claim "huge popular support" as Corbyn put it when they have been pumped it laughable.

They'd have been wiped out in Scotland but for Ian Murray having local support for him as an MP rather than the party.

The thing with the Labour manifesto was that they didn't have to appeal to their core support, they needed to appeal to their fringe support while still having their core values within.

So a little less extreme would have been a good idea. Mainly "British Broadband".

But I don't think any campaigning difference would have made any difference.

The only Labour government we've had in recent times was led by someone who was very media savvy, right at the beginning of the minj-resurgence of the press.

Since then, Labour have been pilloried by the media, painted as unfit to lead by every publication and news portal out there except the Daily Mirror, Guardian, and Independent, and to a lesser extent the BBC.

As we've moved further into tribal politics, the UK's electoral system has been coming to this conclusion. There is no way Labour have the press and media support to win in places outside major cities and student towns. So instead they end up with around 40 seats less than they would have got under PR.

The UK needs electoral reform.

If we're going to have a tribal system, where the North and London are so divided, where multicultural places vote Labour and white places vote Tory, and we preach intolerance...

We need electoral reform.

The world has moved into an appalling situation. We have people voting for Trump, Johnson, Orban, Bolsonaro, Duterte, Erdogan, Modi...

People who are either borderline or outright racist, and whose policies are designed to marginalise and force out minorities.

I'm disgusted.

Banquo wrote:

Big D wrote:

Stom wrote:The nonsense coming out of the Labour Party is atrocious. Good riddance if they’re the kind of people in the party...

The Tories ran the campaign in brexit, the press ran the campaign on brexit, it’s all brexit, ffs.

Leave constituencies are voting to leave. Is that so hard to understand?

After losing 59 seats, losing 7.9% of votes and losing seats in traditionally staunch Labour seats they really are over estimating their "popular support". To claim "huge popular support" as Corbyn put it when they have been pumped it laughable.

They'd have been wiped out in Scotland but for Ian Murray having local support for him as an MP rather than the party.

Chairman Ian Lavery proclaims the manifesto as the greatest document ever written by Labour.

People do double down when they feel things are unfairly maligned.

The Labour manifesto is not terrible. It has holes, but it's not as bad as the Tory manifesto.

Let's not pretend any number of people read either document. They didn't.

Tory remainers liked the lies about "keep Corbyn out" (I will allow that they were mostly exagerations rather than outright lies; and allow some leeway here).
Labour leavers liked the lies about "get brexit done" despite knowing full well that they were lies.

A victory for duplicity, prejudice and bigotry

I've never been more ashamed to be British

The only glimmer of silver lining is that 50.3% voted for pro-EU parties, compared to 45.6% voting anti-EU - even though that's completely irrelevant in our FPTP system

Which Tyler wrote:A victory for duplicity, prejudice and bigotry

I've never been more ashamed to be British

This.

Fuck.

Which Tyler wrote:Tory remainers liked the lies about "keep Corbyn out"
Labour leavers like the lies about "get brexit done" despite knowing that they were lies.

A victory for duplicity, prejudice and bigotry

I've never been more ashamed to be British

The only glimmer of silver lining is that 50.3% voted for pro-EU parties, compared to 45.6% voting anti-EU - even though that's completely irrelevant in our crazy electoral system

I predicted the difference between vote share and seat share...but I didn't think it'd be quite this stark...

Change of maths - taking in the more minor parties (all parties receiving more than 10,000 votes:
45.7% - 14.4M voted for anti-EU parties (14,400,353)
53.3% - 16.8M voted for pro-EU parties (16,805,681)
1% - 0.3M voted for tiny parties / independants (304,687)

Well that went well didn’t it?
My remaining hope is that Boris is more amenable to a good deal than the nutters in his party, but with moderates removed it silenced that is a slim hope.

One argument has been resolved though (not that it will be accepted by many), Labour cannot win power from the left. To win it needs to move to the centre. It’s that simple. Will they manage to recognise that, somehow I doubt it. Easier to blame Brexit and the media.

Stom wrote:

Banquo wrote:

Big D wrote:
After losing 59 seats, losing 7.9% of votes and losing seats in traditionally staunch Labour seats they really are over estimating their "popular support". To claim "huge popular support" as Corbyn put it when they have been pumped it laughable.

They'd have been wiped out in Scotland but for Ian Murray having local support for him as an MP rather than the party.

Chairman Ian Lavery proclaims the manifesto as the greatest document ever written by Labour.

People do double down when they feel things are unfairly maligned.

The Labour manifesto is not terrible. It has holes, but it's not as bad as the Tory manifesto.

Let's not pretend any number of people read either document. They didn't.

we'll have to disagree, I don't think it is unfairly maligned. Its a very long wish list, and the 'red wall' smelt a rat (you are likely right to say it wasn't read, but they heard all the headlines, and know there is no such thing as a free lunch), disliked Corbyn hugely, and likely most importantly felt cheated by (the perception that) Labour blocking Brexit, and ant-semitism played a part too (I know that gets dismissed as media smears on here, but the lived experience of the likes of Berger, Ellman, Hodge, and Smeeth really can't be ignored). All of this played a part in getting people who would never normally dream of voting Tory ticking the box (and a lot did, notwithstanding Brexit party polling high in some seats); this isn't just my view, but what the likes of Yvette Cooper, John Mann, Ruth Smeeth and others said. I do know from a lobbyist that the Tory manifesto was deliberately simple/sh*t, making sure that only one message was remembered, and that McDonnell/Corbyn/clique went large on the manifesto against policy advisor advice and without involving people like Ashworth (not in the inner circle).

battle being played out tween moderate Labour and Corbynite factions on TV; moderates blaming Corbyn and manifesto (and how hard it was to message),Corbynites solely blaming Brexit.

Gina Miller was very articulate about tactical voting too- it was talked about a lot, but a lot of potential libdem voters switched in the booth as they didn't want to enable a Corbhyn govt. These would likely be Tory remainers I suppose; similarly Libdem voters not giving Labour a leg up.

I agree its been poxy, dispiriting campaign; perhaps the second most dispiriting part was how poor the opposition other than the SNP have performed, when it should have been an open goal (the first being the tawdry elements of the Tory campaign)

(also- turnout)

Sandydragon wrote:Well that went well didn’t it?
My remaining hope is that Boris is more amenable to a good deal than the nutters in his party, but with moderates removed it silenced that is a slim hope.

One argument has been resolved though (not that it will be accepted by many), Labour cannot win power from the left. To win it needs to move to the centre. It’s that simple. Will they manage to recognise that, somehow I doubt it. Easier to blame Brexit and the media.

Interesting to see what the large new intake shape up like- seem to be a lot younger and more diverse. As you say, have to hope its not as bad as it could be.

Whole thing leaves me thinking that the only sensible thing to do now as a vaguely left leaning individual of any colour is to join the labour party so at least you get a vote on the next party leader.

There's a hell of a lot more moderates who want Labour closer to the centre than denialist JC fanboys who think that Rebecca Long-Bailey is the obvious next step.

ad_tigger wrote:Whole thing leaves me thinking that the only sensible thing to do now as a vaguely left leaning individual of any colour is to join the labour party so at least you get a vote on the next party leader.

There's a hell of a lot more moderates who want Labour closer to the centre than denialist JC fanboys who think that Rebecca Long-Bailey is the obvious next step.

Hear hear; what I would have given for a non Momentum/Jezza Labour party.

Banquo wrote:

Stom wrote:

Banquo wrote: Chairman Ian Lavery proclaims the manifesto as the greatest document ever written by Labour.

People do double down when they feel things are unfairly maligned.

The Labour manifesto is not terrible. It has holes, but it's not as bad as the Tory manifesto.

Let's not pretend any number of people read either document. They didn't.

we'll have to disagree, I don't think it is unfairly maligned. Its a very long wish list, and the 'red wall' smelt a rat (you are likely right to say it wasn't read, but they heard all the headlines, and know there is no such thing as a free lunch), disliked Corbyn hugely, and likely most importantly felt cheated by (the perception that) Labour blocking Brexit, and ant-semitism played a part too (I know that gets dismissed as media smears on here, but the lived experience of the likes of Berger, Ellman, Hodge, and Smeeth really can't be ignored). All of this played a part in getting people who would never normally dream of voting Tory ticking the box (and a lot did, notwithstanding Brexit party polling high in some seats); this isn't just my view, but what the likes of Yvette Cooper, John Mann, Ruth Smeeth and others said. I do know from a lobbyist that the Tory manifesto was deliberately simple/sh*t, making sure that only one message was remembered, and that McDonnell/Corbyn/clique went large on the manifesto against policy advisor advice and without involving people like Ashworth (not in the inner circle).

battle being played out tween moderate Labour and Corbynite factions on TV; moderates blaming Corbyn and manifesto (and how hard it was to message),Corbynites solely blaming Brexit.

Gina Miller was very articulate about tactical voting too- it was talked about a lot, but a lot of potential libdem voters switched in the booth as they didn't want to enable a Corbhyn govt. These would likely be Tory remainers I suppose; similarly Libdem voters not giving Labour a leg up.

I agree its been poxy, dispiriting campaign; perhaps the second most dispiriting part was how poor the opposition other than the SNP have performed, when it should have been an open goal (the first being the tawdry elements of the Tory campaign)

(also- turnout)

You're really telling me that people in the midlands and north, in Brexit voting heartlands, cared 1 iota about anti-semitism?

And I still fail to see how any other Labour leader could have faired any better unless they campaigned on Leave, and then this election wouldn't have happened!

If you asked those people why they voted how they voted, you will get Brexit, Corbyn is a terrorist sympathiser (which is a media thing, not a reality), Labour will cost us £2,400 more a year (another lie, and nothing to do with Corbyn again), and so on.

None of which is the fault of Corbyn.

Yes, he's not been a very good leader all in all, but you cannot pin this election on him. Only a leave Labour leader could have won, and then there would have been no election in the first place!

And, also, I didn't say it was unfairly maligned, I said when someone FEELS it's unfairly maligned.