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There's also the complete failure of Russian logistics. Yeah, they managed to get shit to the Ukrainian border, thanks to the mostly government-owned rail system and trains, but it's been a clusterfuck as soon as they went into the Ukraine.Zhivago wrote:Training on the side of the Russians also keySandydragon wrote:That will be the influence of the nato training. The Russians would be expected to rely on huge firepower to overwhelm defences (and it looks like they are reverting to type). Holding ground indefinitely would just give them targets. Better to keep moving although it takes good discipline training and comms to do that. Our training has worked well it seemsZhivago wrote:
Apparently the Ukrainians are carrying out a defensive strategy called 'maneuver defence'
https://www.popularmechanics.com/milita ... explained/
Takes serious bravery to protest there, I hope it countsGalfon wrote:Starts with a trickle..
No wonder he's blocking news channels.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-60640204
Nuclear and China are still factors here, this is far from done.cashead wrote:Seriously though, I struggle to see any scenario now in which Russia can maintain a long-term hold over Ukraine.
1. The Russian assumption that they've already got Ukrainian hearts and minds has been comprehensively proven false. Russian warship, go fuck yourself; Slava Ukraini and all that. Insisting that they're a fake country that by all rights should be a Russian colony, if not outright a part of Russia as part of Putin's imperialist delusions when they've got a long, and unique history and a distinct culture appears to have pissed them off. Can't imagine why.
2. Russian logistics as soon as they cross their border is a goddamned joke. No fuel, no food, what the actual shit, Vladimir. 40 years on from Afghanistan, and you still haven't learned a goddamned thing.
3. Ukraine is huge. Actually, it's bigger than that, it's large. If you don't count Russia as a European country, it's the biggest European nation. If you do, it's the second biggest. It's one big boy.
End result is that you've got an army that has been exposed as a fucking joke, in a fuck-off huge country, full of people that hate your fucking guts, and have developed a taste for humiliating and killing you. They've made it clear that Ukraine is their country, and they want you to get the hell out yesterday. Have fun holding on to Ukraine in those circumstances, and good luck, because you're gonna need it.
Oh, and as an added bonus, plenty of your own citizens have been emboldened enough to call you a cunt at the top of their lungs, your oligarch buddies are getting their shit snatched away from them where they've stashed it, and the Russian economy, which was never as big as you'd think it was, is currently in mid-collapse.
Hardly mental illness stomStom wrote:Who's to say China aren't already involved?
Who's to say they didn't tweak Putin's balls just to make sure he invaded, so that they could see how it went in relation to their (surely) planned Taiwan aims.
Who's to say that this isn't simply a pretty appalling distraction tool?
Honestly, I'm so fed up of people trying to understand the reasoning when that reasoning only makes sense through the lens of some kind of mental illness.
China don't want any part of this.Stom wrote:Who's to say China aren't already involved?
Who's to say they didn't tweak Putin's balls just to make sure he invaded, so that they could see how it went in relation to their (surely) planned Taiwan aims.
Who's to say that this isn't simply a pretty appalling distraction tool?
Honestly, I'm so fed up of people trying to understand the reasoning when that reasoning only makes sense through the lens of some kind of mental illness.
I hope you're right. I think there's far too little (independent) information about the details of the war, on the ground, to draw any conclusions yet. On the economic front though, I don't see how Russia can continue with this in the medium term.cashead wrote:Seriously though, I struggle to see any scenario now in which Russia can maintain a long-term hold over Ukraine.
1. The Russian assumption that they've already got Ukrainian hearts and minds has been comprehensively proven false. Russian warship, go fuck yourself; Slava Ukraini and all that. Insisting that they're a fake country that by all rights should be a Russian colony, if not outright a part of Russia as part of Putin's imperialist delusions when they've got a long, and unique history and a distinct culture appears to have pissed them off. Can't imagine why.
2. Russian logistics as soon as they cross their border is a goddamned joke. No fuel, no food, what the actual shit, Vladimir. 40 years on from Afghanistan, and you still haven't learned a goddamned thing.
3. Ukraine is huge. Actually, it's bigger than that, it's large. If you don't count Russia as a European country, it's the biggest European nation. If you do, it's the second biggest. It's one big boy.
End result is that you've got an army that has been exposed as a fucking joke, in a fuck-off huge country, full of people that hate your fucking guts, and have developed a taste for humiliating and killing you. They've made it clear that Ukraine is their country, and they want you to get the hell out yesterday. Have fun holding on to Ukraine in those circumstances, and good luck, because you're gonna need it.
Oh, and as an added bonus, plenty of your own citizens have been emboldened enough to call you a cunt at the top of their lungs, your oligarch buddies are getting their shit snatched away from them where they've stashed it, and the Russian economy, which was never as big as you'd think it was, is currently in mid-collapse.
China is playing it coy. What do they have to lose, assuming we don’t end up with a full scale nuclear war which screws everyone. Russia tests western resolve. China can be the mediator and look like a peace maker.Stom wrote:Who's to say China aren't already involved?
Who's to say they didn't tweak Putin's balls just to make sure he invaded, so that they could see how it went in relation to their (surely) planned Taiwan aims.
Who's to say that this isn't simply a pretty appalling distraction tool?
Honestly, I'm so fed up of people trying to understand the reasoning when that reasoning only makes sense through the lens of some kind of mental illness.
Russian lol-gistics as well. They're doing comparatively alright down south, where they have their bases in or near Crimea, but up north, they're struggling with getting vehicles going and keeping them going.Galfon wrote:MoD update from this morning:
"The large Russian column north west of Kyiv has made little progress in over a week and is suffering continued losses at the hands of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.
There has been a notable decrease in overall Russian air activity over Ukraine in recent days, likely due to the unexpected effectiveness and endurance of Ukrainian Air Defence forces
Russia has deployed conscript troops to Ukraine despite previous public assurances from President Putin not to do so. As casualties mount, President Putin will be forced to draw from across the Russian Armed Forces and other sources to replace his losses. "
Looks like as predicted, 2 weeks in & Russ. appear to be hitting problems in financing the continuing venture.
You see this shit throughout history. You simply can not hold a territory indefinitely, without having won over the population, or ceded back to the local populace, the sovereignty you sought to strip away. The Russians may yet make it to Kiev, and they may take Ukraine, but holding a territory that vast, after comprehensively losing the campaign to win hearts and minds is an entirely different thing - especially when that population is angry, motivated and determined to kick you the fuck out.Son of Mathonwy wrote:I hope you're right. I think there's far too little (independent) information about the details of the war, on the ground, to draw any conclusions yet. On the economic front though, I don't see how Russia can continue with this in the medium term.cashead wrote:Seriously though, I struggle to see any scenario now in which Russia can maintain a long-term hold over Ukraine.
1. The Russian assumption that they've already got Ukrainian hearts and minds has been comprehensively proven false. Russian warship, go fuck yourself; Slava Ukraini and all that. Insisting that they're a fake country that by all rights should be a Russian colony, if not outright a part of Russia as part of Putin's imperialist delusions when they've got a long, and unique history and a distinct culture appears to have pissed them off. Can't imagine why.
2. Russian logistics as soon as they cross their border is a goddamned joke. No fuel, no food, what the actual shit, Vladimir. 40 years on from Afghanistan, and you still haven't learned a goddamned thing.
3. Ukraine is huge. Actually, it's bigger than that, it's large. If you don't count Russia as a European country, it's the biggest European nation. If you do, it's the second biggest. It's one big boy.
End result is that you've got an army that has been exposed as a fucking joke, in a fuck-off huge country, full of people that hate your fucking guts, and have developed a taste for humiliating and killing you. They've made it clear that Ukraine is their country, and they want you to get the hell out yesterday. Have fun holding on to Ukraine in those circumstances, and good luck, because you're gonna need it.
Oh, and as an added bonus, plenty of your own citizens have been emboldened enough to call you a cunt at the top of their lungs, your oligarch buddies are getting their shit snatched away from them where they've stashed it, and the Russian economy, which was never as big as you'd think it was, is currently in mid-collapse.
I'm always cautious to take Ukranian proclamations with a pinch of salt, on the basis that they're generally what I want to hear and that makes me credulous, but that's entertaining if true.cashead wrote:The NACP, Ukraine's anti-corruption watchdog has thanked the Russian Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoygu for his corruption. According to them, they've found that the protective barriers on the Russian T-72 and T-80 tanks are made from cardboard egg trays, and the Russian bullet-proof vests that they've found in captured APCs are made of cardboard.
While a grain of salt is needed, it's also entirely plausible under Shoygu's command, when he's been busy with opening up the military to influence from various lobby groups and grifters - something which his predecessor, Anatoly Serdyukov, was deposed for fighting and reducing.
Russia has also lost nine colonels and generals in the two weeks since this war has started, and it's safe to assume a proportional number of NCOs are being killed each week as well.
It would explain why they still haven't taken Kharkiv, despite it being, like, 50 feet from the border.
The EU have also just basically kicked the doors open and have loudly announced they're organising a welcoming party for the Ukrainians, so, uh, good going there, Vladimir.
The Russian NCO cadre is poor. It puts a lot more onto officers. And conscript armies are a different beast to a professional one.cashead wrote:The NACP, Ukraine's anti-corruption watchdog has thanked the Russian Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoygu for his corruption. According to them, they've found that the protective barriers on the Russian T-72 and T-80 tanks are made from cardboard egg trays, and the Russian bullet-proof vests that they've found in captured APCs are made of cardboard.
While a grain of salt is needed, it's also entirely plausible under Shoygu's command, when he's been busy with opening up the military to influence from various lobby groups and grifters - something which his predecessor, Anatoly Serdyukov, was deposed for fighting and reducing.
Russia has also lost nine colonels and generals in the two weeks since this war has started, and it's safe to assume a proportional number of NCOs are being killed each week as well.
It would explain why they still haven't taken Kharkiv, despite it being, like, 50 feet from the border.
The EU have also just basically kicked the doors open and have loudly announced they're organising a welcoming party for the Ukrainians, so, uh, good going there, Vladimir.
With volunteers from the Central African Republic and Asia on the way to help Russia fight the nationalists. It’s almost farcicalZhivago wrote:Russians using Chechen forces as barrier troops now to prevent desertion
Ukraine have been given candidate status, and while full membership is still several years away, it looks like step one has been accelerated - probably due to some pressing matters going on within their borders.Puja wrote:I'm always cautious to take Ukranian proclamations with a pinch of salt, on the basis that they're generally what I want to hear and that makes me credulous, but that's entertaining if true.cashead wrote:The NACP, Ukraine's anti-corruption watchdog has thanked the Russian Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoygu for his corruption. According to them, they've found that the protective barriers on the Russian T-72 and T-80 tanks are made from cardboard egg trays, and the Russian bullet-proof vests that they've found in captured APCs are made of cardboard.
While a grain of salt is needed, it's also entirely plausible under Shoygu's command, when he's been busy with opening up the military to influence from various lobby groups and grifters - something which his predecessor, Anatoly Serdyukov, was deposed for fighting and reducing.
Russia has also lost nine colonels and generals in the two weeks since this war has started, and it's safe to assume a proportional number of NCOs are being killed each week as well.
It would explain why they still haven't taken Kharkiv, despite it being, like, 50 feet from the border.
The EU have also just basically kicked the doors open and have loudly announced they're organising a welcoming party for the Ukrainians, so, uh, good going there, Vladimir.
There's no way the EU will let Ukraine in any time this decade though. They are so far away on so many economic, corruption, democratic, and legal metrics for EU accession that not even a very creative interpretation of very liberally bent rules would allow them access. Even with all the sympathy in the world, there's no legal route that could let them in, especially while simultaneously denying Montenegro, Albania, Macedonia, and Serbia, which are all far closer (and have been in the queue since 2008!). Plus, it requires every EU country to vote to accept them, and there'll be a few that are too worried about the backsliding on rights and democracy of the likes of Poland and Hungary to be waving in another Eastern European country. Not to mention that the EU has a mutual defence clause and there's bound to be a few that don't fancy having a war with Russia (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia for a start!).
Puja
One of the biggest problems for the Germans after the initial stages of Operation Barbarossa was that hundreds of their NCOs were getting killed each week, with no way of replacing them with equally experienced men. Unless Putin was stashing away all of his good officers in Siberia, the organisational efficiency of their invasion force has little to no hope of rebounding.Sandydragon wrote:The Russian NCO cadre is poor. It puts a lot more onto officers. And conscript armies are a different beast to a professional one.
I think candidate status is just, "has applied, hasn't been immediately rejected."cashead wrote:Ukraine have been given candidate status, and while full membership is still several years away, it looks like step one has been accelerated - probably due to some pressing matters going on within their borders.Puja wrote:I'm always cautious to take Ukranian proclamations with a pinch of salt, on the basis that they're generally what I want to hear and that makes me credulous, but that's entertaining if true.cashead wrote:The NACP, Ukraine's anti-corruption watchdog has thanked the Russian Minister of Defence, Sergei Shoygu for his corruption. According to them, they've found that the protective barriers on the Russian T-72 and T-80 tanks are made from cardboard egg trays, and the Russian bullet-proof vests that they've found in captured APCs are made of cardboard.
While a grain of salt is needed, it's also entirely plausible under Shoygu's command, when he's been busy with opening up the military to influence from various lobby groups and grifters - something which his predecessor, Anatoly Serdyukov, was deposed for fighting and reducing.
Russia has also lost nine colonels and generals in the two weeks since this war has started, and it's safe to assume a proportional number of NCOs are being killed each week as well.
It would explain why they still haven't taken Kharkiv, despite it being, like, 50 feet from the border.
The EU have also just basically kicked the doors open and have loudly announced they're organising a welcoming party for the Ukrainians, so, uh, good going there, Vladimir.
There's no way the EU will let Ukraine in any time this decade though. They are so far away on so many economic, corruption, democratic, and legal metrics for EU accession that not even a very creative interpretation of very liberally bent rules would allow them access. Even with all the sympathy in the world, there's no legal route that could let them in, especially while simultaneously denying Montenegro, Albania, Macedonia, and Serbia, which are all far closer (and have been in the queue since 2008!). Plus, it requires every EU country to vote to accept them, and there'll be a few that are too worried about the backsliding on rights and democracy of the likes of Poland and Hungary to be waving in another Eastern European country. Not to mention that the EU has a mutual defence clause and there's bound to be a few that don't fancy having a war with Russia (Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia for a start!).
Puja