Brexit delayed

[Mellsblue]

Conservative leader timetable:
Nominations close during w/c 10th June.
Final two by end of June (hopefully).
Member vote before 24th July.

[Puja]

Conservative leader timetable:
Nominations close during w/c 10th June.
Final two by end of June (hopefully).
Member vote before 24th July.

Parliament goes on their well-earned summer holidays after that, cause bless their little souls, they're tired lambs. And then back in September with only 2 months left till B day, no time left for an election or a referendum or anything beyond further futile parliamentary prolixity. To top it off, we'll likely be blessed with the blond-haired twat in charge who thinks himself the second coming of Churchill and who will spin our inevitable No Deal triumph till it's polished and any consequences the results of the previous administration or those nasty Europeans.

I can think of worse uses of our precious deadline time than a Conservative leadership contest, but not very many.

Puja

[morepork]

Is Boris likely?

[Which Tyler]

I can think of worse uses of our precious deadline time than a Conservative leadership contest, but not very many.

I'm struggling here - could you name some?

[Puja]

Is Boris likely?

He's actually being talked up as the (no laughing at the back) "reasonable" choice. The leadership contest is in two parts - first the big list of candidates are whittled down to two by the MPs, and then those two are voted on by the party membership. Boris has the Leave credentials of being part of the campaign, he's supported by the Victorian demographic of Rees-Mogg, but he's seen as more sensible (I'm serious, stop laughing) than frothing loonies like Francois or Raab, so there's a good chance that he'll be seen as a palatable Leave option. If he makes it to the final two, then the party membership are heavily Eurosceptic and "anti P-C" so they're very fond of him. He's got a disturbingly good chance.

Mind, who else is there? I remember looking at the candidates last time and thinking May was the best of a bad bunch and look how terrible she turned out. Now that honoured of "least-worst" probably goes to Amber Rudd, although she'll never win.

I can think of worse uses of our precious deadline time than a Conservative leadership contest, but not very many.

I'm struggling here - could you name some?

Sticking with May and continually voting on iterations of her withdrawal agreement.

Puja

[Mellsblue]

If Boris gets to the final two he’ll win it. I think most of the parliamentary party realise they need a Leaver and he is the most palatable. It will depend on his manifesto. MP’s will accept him wanting Brexit as long as no deal isn’t plan A and the rest of his policies appeal to the liberal, one nation Conservative end of the party. He already has Mercer, who is seen as a rising star, and from what I’ve heard he also has Tugendhat, another rising star and chair of the foreign affairs committee, Gove has been saying nice things about him and it’s rumoured Morgan will be his other ‘big beast’. He also has the happy knack of winning, which is the ultimate aphrodisiac for a Conservative.

[Sandydragon]

Many many think that Boris would be a reasonable bet given that he doesn’t really believe in anything other than himself and could potentially deviate from being a true Brexiteers if he got into office.

I don’t think any of the remainers have a chance.

[Mellsblue]

I don’t think any of the remainers have a chance.

If the party members are given two Remainers it could all be over and I’d have to buy some sandals a pair of white socks and join the Lib Dems.

[Puja]

Many many think that Boris would be a reasonable bet given that he doesn’t really believe in anything other than himself and could potentially deviate from being a true Brexiteers if he got into office.

I don’t think any of the remainers have a chance.

I've seen those articles and I think they're wishful thinking. The theory that Boris might cancel Brexit/call a second referendum with a heavy heart runs on the idea that he'd value saving the country and being a saviour, which I think is misunderstanding the Boris self-preservation drive - he'll prioritise his political career over the well-being of the country, every day of the week.

I can see one remainer going through to the final two to offer "balance", but they'd be murdered by the members' vote.

Puja

[Digby]

Diggers, I get it, you think it's a terrible idea etc etc but I'm not really defending the concept of leaving, other than there are some upsides, albeit limited ones and nowhere near in quality or quantity of staying, and that a halfway house is the worst of both worlds.

It's more this idea that you must be thick, inbred or racist to want to leave, or that it is all the ERG or the govts/Mays fault, or that it will inevitably lead to us being America/Singapore light, or that Brexiteers are Nazis at worst and racists at best (and yes I'd agree that a decent number of Leave voters are just racists/c**nts) or that it's ok to have a running total of deaths and celebrate when it theoretically meant that Remain would win a second ref or the premis that there were and are no lies coming from the Remain side. I could go on.

When I discuss Brexit in situations where most people are overwhelmingly ardent Leavers, I defend Remainers as staunchly from their insults and accusations as I defend Leave voters on here and I point the finger of blame at ardent Brexiteer MPs as much as I point the finger of blame at ardent Remainer MPs whilst on here. I've had my fair share of rows with ERG supporters whilst at Conservative meetings. I also have great discussions with many people who just want to get on with it whilst understanding that a second ref will solve nothing and no deal Brexit is madness.

In short, I think 30% of the country have been swallowed down the Brexit vortex and the rest of us have to watch you trade insults whilst nothing is achieved.

Just think, if we'd all accepted the referendum result we might out of the EU and negotiating the closest trade deal in the world, have continued joint initiatives, such as Erasmus, whilst also dealing with the myriad of other issues parliament should be dealing with, and the changes to everyday life would be almost imperceptible.

Here's the thing, you state very simply we need to accept the referendum and that a halfway house is the worst of both worlds, which I disagree with, if I accept the referendum it's with the conclusion we should remain in the single market and customs union to minimise the damage of what is a very stupid decision, and technically I'm fine with that as we'd still be leaving the EU. So accepting the referendum is a very different thing depending on one's biases

Why you want to defend someone who's been busy being so stupid (and/or racist) I don't know, but if that's how you get your kicks so be it.

[Which Tyler]

Ouch:

[Mellsblue]

Diggers, I get it, you think it's a terrible idea etc etc but I'm not really defending the concept of leaving, other than there are some upsides, albeit limited ones and nowhere near in quality or quantity of staying, and that a halfway house is the worst of both worlds.

It's more this idea that you must be thick, inbred or racist to want to leave, or that it is all the ERG or the govts/Mays fault, or that it will inevitably lead to us being America/Singapore light, or that Brexiteers are Nazis at worst and racists at best (and yes I'd agree that a decent number of Leave voters are just racists/c**nts) or that it's ok to have a running total of deaths and celebrate when it theoretically meant that Remain would win a second ref or the premis that there were and are no lies coming from the Remain side. I could go on.

When I discuss Brexit in situations where most people are overwhelmingly ardent Leavers, I defend Remainers as staunchly from their insults and accusations as I defend Leave voters on here and I point the finger of blame at ardent Brexiteer MPs as much as I point the finger of blame at ardent Remainer MPs whilst on here. I've had my fair share of rows with ERG supporters whilst at Conservative meetings. I also have great discussions with many people who just want to get on with it whilst understanding that a second ref will solve nothing and no deal Brexit is madness.

In short, I think 30% of the country have been swallowed down the Brexit vortex and the rest of us have to watch you trade insults whilst nothing is achieved.

Just think, if we'd all accepted the referendum result we might out of the EU and negotiating the closest trade deal in the world, have continued joint initiatives, such as Erasmus, whilst also dealing with the myriad of other issues parliament should be dealing with, and the changes to everyday life would be almost imperceptible.

Here's the thing, you state very simply we need to accept the referendum and that a halfway house is the worst of both worlds, which I disagree with, if I accept the referendum it's with the conclusion we should remain in the single market and customs union to minimise the damage of what is a very stupid decision, and technically I'm fine with that as we'd still be leaving the EU. So accepting the referendum is a very different thing depending on one's biases

Why you want to defend someone who's been busy being so stupid (and/or racist) I don't know, but if that's how you get your kicks so be it.

You were doing so well to sound rational and happy to debate in good faith and then you had to put in that last sentence to ruin it.
It’s my big worry of politics at the moment. People aren’t happy to accept that people have a valid reason to have a different opinion. It must be because they’re thick, racist, evil etc etc. Civil political discourse has almost disappeared.

[Banquo]

Diggers, I get it, you think it's a terrible idea etc etc but I'm not really defending the concept of leaving, other than there are some upsides, albeit limited ones and nowhere near in quality or quantity of staying, and that a halfway house is the worst of both worlds.

It's more this idea that you must be thick, inbred or racist to want to leave, or that it is all the ERG or the govts/Mays fault, or that it will inevitably lead to us being America/Singapore light, or that Brexiteers are Nazis at worst and racists at best (and yes I'd agree that a decent number of Leave voters are just racists/c**nts) or that it's ok to have a running total of deaths and celebrate when it theoretically meant that Remain would win a second ref or the premis that there were and are no lies coming from the Remain side. I could go on.

When I discuss Brexit in situations where most people are overwhelmingly ardent Leavers, I defend Remainers as staunchly from their insults and accusations as I defend Leave voters on here and I point the finger of blame at ardent Brexiteer MPs as much as I point the finger of blame at ardent Remainer MPs whilst on here. I've had my fair share of rows with ERG supporters whilst at Conservative meetings. I also have great discussions with many people who just want to get on with it whilst understanding that a second ref will solve nothing and no deal Brexit is madness.

In short, I think 30% of the country have been swallowed down the Brexit vortex and the rest of us have to watch you trade insults whilst nothing is achieved.

Just think, if we'd all accepted the referendum result we might out of the EU and negotiating the closest trade deal in the world, have continued joint initiatives, such as Erasmus, whilst also dealing with the myriad of other issues parliament should be dealing with, and the changes to everyday life would be almost imperceptible.

Here's the thing, you state very simply we need to accept the referendum and that a halfway house is the worst of both worlds, which I disagree with, if I accept the referendum it's with the conclusion we should remain in the single market and customs union to minimise the damage of what is a very stupid decision, and technically I'm fine with that as we'd still be leaving the EU. So accepting the referendum is a very different thing depending on one's biases

Why you want to defend someone who's been busy being so stupid (and/or racist) I don't know, but if that's how you get your kicks so be it.

You were doing so well to sound rational and happy to debate in good faith and then you had to put in that last sentence to ruin it.
It’s my big worry of politics at the moment. People aren’t happy to accept that people have a valid reason to have a different opinion. It must be because they’re thick, racist, evil etc etc. Civil political discourse has almost disappeared.

Moderate twat.

[Digby]

Diggers, I get it, you think it's a terrible idea etc etc but I'm not really defending the concept of leaving, other than there are some upsides, albeit limited ones and nowhere near in quality or quantity of staying, and that a halfway house is the worst of both worlds.

It's more this idea that you must be thick, inbred or racist to want to leave, or that it is all the ERG or the govts/Mays fault, or that it will inevitably lead to us being America/Singapore light, or that Brexiteers are Nazis at worst and racists at best (and yes I'd agree that a decent number of Leave voters are just racists/c**nts) or that it's ok to have a running total of deaths and celebrate when it theoretically meant that Remain would win a second ref or the premis that there were and are no lies coming from the Remain side. I could go on.

When I discuss Brexit in situations where most people are overwhelmingly ardent Leavers, I defend Remainers as staunchly from their insults and accusations as I defend Leave voters on here and I point the finger of blame at ardent Brexiteer MPs as much as I point the finger of blame at ardent Remainer MPs whilst on here. I've had my fair share of rows with ERG supporters whilst at Conservative meetings. I also have great discussions with many people who just want to get on with it whilst understanding that a second ref will solve nothing and no deal Brexit is madness.

In short, I think 30% of the country have been swallowed down the Brexit vortex and the rest of us have to watch you trade insults whilst nothing is achieved.

Just think, if we'd all accepted the referendum result we might out of the EU and negotiating the closest trade deal in the world, have continued joint initiatives, such as Erasmus, whilst also dealing with the myriad of other issues parliament should be dealing with, and the changes to everyday life would be almost imperceptible.

Here's the thing, you state very simply we need to accept the referendum and that a halfway house is the worst of both worlds, which I disagree with, if I accept the referendum it's with the conclusion we should remain in the single market and customs union to minimise the damage of what is a very stupid decision, and technically I'm fine with that as we'd still be leaving the EU. So accepting the referendum is a very different thing depending on one's biases

Why you want to defend someone who's been busy being so stupid (and/or racist) I don't know, but if that's how you get your kicks so be it.

You were doing so well to sound rational and happy to debate in good faith and then you had to put in that last sentence to ruin it.
It’s my big worry of politics at the moment. People aren’t happy to accept that people have a valid reason to have a different opinion. It must be because they’re thick, racist, evil etc etc. Civil political discourse has almost disappeared.

I'm not saying people can't have a different opinion, nor we should refuse to act on decisions that win in votes even if they're stupid. Only that they can't expect people not to call them stupid whilst they're being stupid. Democracy is no defence against stupidity, but it's still important that democracy win out unless someone has a better idea than democracy, and heaven knows I'm not capable of a good idea.

Brexit doesn't have valid reasons, it's supposed answers are no answers, and they're certainly no answer to the problems typically listed as to why many voted for Brexit. There will of course be pockets within society that benefit whichever way we might have gone, so comments as to the good or bad are intended to be taken as across society as a whole.

Also is this really a place for a good faith debate as I tend to post simply to amuse myself rather than with any loftier ambition?

[Digby]

Ouch:

Like Farage he's capable of raising some valid concerns, like Farage his solutions can far too easily be placed in a column marked insane/abhorrent

[Puja]

Ouch:

Like Farage he's capable of raising some valid concerns, like Farage his solutions can far too easily be placed in a column marked insane/abhorrent

He's not wrong here though. Getting fed up of people feeling sad for May - yes, she inherited a shit situation, but no-one forced her into being leader (and she did a fair job stitching up her competitors), and she's had three years leading a country. Even though she's lost her job, she's never going to be poor or short of a job opportunity, which is more than can be said for a lot of people her decisions have harmed. And it's hardly as though she's undeserving of the sack - she has thoroughly earned it and under usual circumstances would have had it over a year ago.

A set of performative tears shouldn't make people feel better for her - she's not an unfortunate victim of fate or circumstances who deserves pity.

Puja

[Digby]

Exciting to see the contenders for the leadership of the Tory party don't even agree on what Brexit means, other than Brexit, and that somehow (magic?) they'll unite the country.

[Mikey Brown]

Ouch:

Like Farage he's capable of raising some valid concerns, like Farage his solutions can far too easily be placed in a column marked insane/abhorrent

Jones? I don’t like him but he’s correct here, not sure how he compares to Farage at all.

Puja is right. May is a c*nt. I think that’s roughly what he was saying anyway.

[Banquo]

Ouch:

Like Farage he's capable of raising some valid concerns, like Farage his solutions can far too easily be placed in a column marked insane/abhorrent

Jones? I don’t like him but he’s correct here, not sure how he compares to Farage at all.

Puja is right. May is a c*nt. I think that’s roughly what he was saying anyway.

I assume in the sense that the diagnosis is correct, but the solution wrong.

[Digby]

Like Farage he's capable of raising some valid concerns, like Farage his solutions can far too easily be placed in a column marked insane/abhorrent

Jones? I don’t like him but he’s correct here, not sure how he compares to Farage at all.

Puja is right. May is a c*nt. I think that’s roughly what he was saying anyway.

I assume in the sense that the diagnosis is correct, but the solution wrong.

Yep, they can both raise valid complaints

[Which Tyler]

Halfway-ish. 182/373

Brx: 31.0%
LD: 20.9%
Lab: 14.6%
Grn: 12.3%
Con: 8.8%
SNP+PC: 3.8%


Pro-Brexit: 3.92M
Anti-Brexit: 4.66M

[Puja]

If one were looking at the UK's demand for a "No Deal" Brexit vs any other option, it appears to be 35% for and 65% against. No doubt the media will give Farage and his ilk as much time as they want to carp about how this shows an overwhelming mandate for No Deal.

Greens are doing well. 5 MEPs already with an inevitable one in the SW still to come. Not bad to've doubled their representation when 75% of the media coverage that was given to them was "Don't vote Green, tactically vote Lib Dem to stop Brexit."

Puja

[Which Tyler]

356/373


Brx: 31.6%
LD: 20.3%
Lab: 14.1%
Grn: 12.1%
Con: 9.1%
SNP+PC: 4.6%


Leave: 5.8M
Remain: 6.7M



MEPs (waiting for Scotland & NI), 2014 => 2019

Farage's ego, 23 => 28
Lib Dem, 1 => 15
Labour, 18 => 10
Green, 3 => 7
Conservative, 18 => 3
Plaid, 1 => 1

9 to be declared

[Mellsblue]

If one were looking at the UK's demand for a "No Deal" Brexit vs any other option, it appears to be 35% for and 65% against. No doubt the media will give Farage and his ilk as much time as they want to carp about how this shows an overwhelming mandate for No Deal.

Greens are doing well. 5 MEPs already with an inevitable one in the SW still to come. Not bad to've doubled their representation when 75% of the media coverage that was given to them was "Don't vote Green, tactically vote Lib Dem to stop Brexit."

Puja

Coverage up here, including from the Lib Dem party, was to vote Green.

[Sandydragon]

Farage is claiming his triumph to be clear indications of the UK electorates willingness to leave on no deal. Yet more votes for parties with remain policies.

Real shame all the media will focus on is Farage.