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Re: COVID19

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:32 am
by Digby
Mellsblue wrote:
Digby wrote:I knew there was a push not to have the MMR vaccine and I knew there was a push the vaccine shouldn't be a combined MMR approach. I didn't know there was a vaccine that was designed to protect against the MMR vaccine
It was my poor editing, ironically. Should’ve read:
‘refused to withdraw Wakefield’s anti-MMR vaccine paper
It wouldn't have surprised me if they'd come up with such in the supposed name of science, and I pay little to no attention to such people so could easily have missed it. I'm as likely to read papers on bible study, or even the bible as read stuff by Wakefield.

Re: RE: Re: COVID19

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:35 am
by Digby
Banquo wrote:
Which Tyler wrote:
Banquo wrote: a- anyone believe the Chinese stats?
b- societal differences huge
c- we are all guessing
Does anyone believe anyone's stats?
No, ours are also bollocks, so why try and draw a comparison.
On t'wireless earlier it was noted French death stats for the virus only include those who died in an appropriate setting, basically hospital, where they can easily count them. So if you're an old person who died in a residential home who died in the home from the virus you're not included, though they are looking to correct that, not least as that's exactly where lots of old people are dying. If they do correct there could well be a spike in French numbers when in reality nothing has changed

Re: COVID19

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:37 am
by Banquo

Re: COVID19

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:57 am
by Sandydragon
I can only imagine the amusement that generated amongst exhausted Australian medics.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:08 am
by Puja
It's the laconic way he's telling the story of how it escalated that's really tickled me. "At that point, I ran out of magnets." :lol:

Puja

Re: COVID19

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:28 am
by Son of Mathonwy
Probably just the tip of the iceberg re people inserting objects (or small mammals) in an ill-advised place.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:54 am
by Mellsblue
Maybe Gove was right after all
*runs for cover*

Re: COVID19

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:48 pm
by twitchy
Image

Re: COVID19

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 12:55 pm
by Sandydragon
Son of Mathonwy wrote:Probably just the tip of the iceberg re people inserting objects (or small mammals) in an ill-advised place.
I wonder how long people have to be isolated before they start looking at the dog in a funny way?

Re: COVID19

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:48 pm
by Donny osmond
Updated to include yesterday's figures. Big euro countries following almost identical paths, apart from Spain.

Seemingly the figures from Japan aren't all they seem, but wouldn't be able to out any detain on that.Image

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

Re: COVID19

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 2:56 pm
by Sandydragon
How much do we trust any of those figures? Unless we are all using the same criteria for assessing cause of death (which apparently isn't the case) then there is potential for significant discrepancies.

However, assuming each country doesn't change the criteria midway then its interesting to see how individuals countries begin to level out as a result of their lockdowns (or alternatives). The biggest surprise for me is that the US isn't doubling quicker.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:08 pm
by morepork
Sandydragon wrote:How much do we trust any of those figures? Unless we are all using the same criteria for assessing cause of death (which apparently isn't the case) then there is potential for significant discrepancies.

However, assuming each country doesn't change the criteria midway then its interesting to see how individuals countries begin to level out as a result of their lockdowns (or alternatives). The biggest surprise for me is that the US isn't doubling quicker.

Give it a week. We are about to get to the fun part of the exponential. Also really should look more closely at epicentres, rather than the 300 000 000 spread out over a big chunk of continent.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 4:59 pm
by Sandydragon
morepork wrote:
Sandydragon wrote:How much do we trust any of those figures? Unless we are all using the same criteria for assessing cause of death (which apparently isn't the case) then there is potential for significant discrepancies.

However, assuming each country doesn't change the criteria midway then its interesting to see how individuals countries begin to level out as a result of their lockdowns (or alternatives). The biggest surprise for me is that the US isn't doubling quicker.

Give it a week. We are about to get to the fun part of the exponential. Also really should look more closely at epicentres, rather than the 300 000 000 spread out over a big chunk of continent.
Fair point, the US is still a week or 2 behind other areas. And the mid west is very different to New York.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 6:23 pm
by Galfon
from gov.uk:

'Coronavirus: MOTs due from 30 March 2020
Your car, van or motorcycle’s MOT expiry date will be extended by 6 months if it’s due on or after 30 March 2020 - but you must keep your vehicle safe to drive
.'

but only from 30 Mar..good luck if yours has expired in the last few days and you need a garridge - small locals are mostly closed, & main dealers are just doing emergency vehicles. :|..

Re: COVID19

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 10:18 pm
by morepork
Nice reassuring font.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Mon Mar 30, 2020 11:02 pm
by Galfon
morepork wrote:Nice reassuring font.
my choice not the gov'ners, but thank you.

Meanwhile, more on topic - the first of many across de globe.Little need for expensive grown-up play areas when peeps are dying left, right, centre and everywhere between.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/ ... ll-on-game

Re: COVID19

Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:18 am
by Eugene Wrayburn
There's not a massive amount of point in comparing raw numbers across countries it seems to me. What you can usefully look at is progression in other countries to predict progression in your own and the effect of certain restrictions. Obviously there are cultural differences and weird outliers - something decidedly weird is going on in Japan's numbers - which will affect all these things. The rate of doubling of deaths is probably the best indicator we have.

Anyway my favourite resource with apologies if it has already been shared is: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus# ... m-covid-19

Re: COVID19

Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:19 am
by Eugene Wrayburn
Oh and a cheery note. My friends private GP, who knows that she does a bit a sewing, asked her if she could knock up a mask or two and advise the GP how to do some herself. The system is beyond fucked.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 1:32 am
by Puja
Galfon wrote:
morepork wrote:Nice reassuring font.
my choice not the gov'ners, but thank you.

Meanwhile, more on topic - the first of many across de globe.Little need for expensive grown-up play areas when peeps are dying left, right, centre and everywhere between.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/ ... ll-on-game
That's USAR using Covid-19 as an excuse to do something that was always coming. They were up to their eyeballs in debt due to mismanagement and utter fecklessness - I'm sure coronavirus didn't help, but they were a basketcase long before any pandemic came along.

Puja

Re: COVID19

Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 3:07 am
by morepork
Eugene Wrayburn wrote:Oh and a cheery note. My friends private GP, who knows that she does a bit a sewing, asked her if she could knock up a mask or two and advise the GP how to do some herself. The system is beyond fucked.

Totally FUBAR man. Stay clean, stay safe.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:00 am
by canta_brian
Eugene Wrayburn wrote:There's not a massive amount of point in comparing raw numbers across countries it seems to me. What you can usefully look at is progression in other countries to predict progression in your own and the effect of certain restrictions. Obviously there are cultural differences and weird outliers - something decidedly weird is going on in Japan's numbers - which will affect all these things. The rate of doubling of deaths is probably the best indicator we have.

Anyway my favourite resource with apologies if it has already been shared is: https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus# ... m-covid-19
Reported deaths though. Hang on I will quote the post and bring it forward.

Re: COVID19

Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 5:01 am
by canta_brian
Which Tyler wrote:
"The town of Nembro, near Bergamo, had 158 deaths so far this year Vs 35 on average in the recent past.

Only 31 deaths were attributed to Covid-19"


Of course, some of those will be undiagnosed COVID deaths, and some secondary as equipment and care isn't available for others when capacity is taken up with COVID.
This is the one.

Also
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/ ... 82846.html

Re: RE: Re: COVID19

Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:11 am
by Donny osmond
canta_brian wrote:
Which Tyler wrote:
"The town of Nembro, near Bergamo, had 158 deaths so far this year Vs 35 on average in the recent past.

Only 31 deaths were attributed to Covid-19"


Of course, some of those will be undiagnosed COVID deaths, and some secondary as equipment and care isn't available for others when capacity is taken up with COVID.
This is the one.

Also
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/ ... 82846.html
In pictorial formImage

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

Re: RE: Re: COVID19

Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:34 am
by canta_brian
Donny osmond wrote:
canta_brian wrote:
Which Tyler wrote:
"The town of Nembro, near Bergamo, had 158 deaths so far this year Vs 35 on average in the recent past.

Only 31 deaths were attributed to Covid-19"


Of course, some of those will be undiagnosed COVID deaths, and some secondary as equipment and care isn't available for others when capacity is taken up with COVID.
This is the one.

Also
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/ ... 82846.html
In pictorial formImage

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk
That’s what I was trying to do at 4 am! Fail on my part. But I’m symptomatic for the Covid plague (mild only so don’t start a fundraiser) so I’m not all that good at anything right now.

Re: RE: Re: COVID19

Posted: Tue Mar 31, 2020 9:42 am
by Stom
canta_brian wrote:
Donny osmond wrote:
canta_brian wrote: This is the one.

Also
https://www.rfa.org/english/news/china/ ... 82846.html
In pictorial formImage

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk
That’s what I was trying to do at 4 am! Fail on my part. But I’m symptomatic for the Covid plague (mild only so don’t start a fundraiser) so I’m not all that good at anything right now.
That's the thing, I have also been symptomatic, but those symptoms can also be attributed to other things, too.

My wife and I have been offered tests by a client of my wife's, but I'm unsure whether we should take them. On one hand, it would be good to know if we've had it, so are currently immune, but on the other hand, it could potentially be a lot more use to someone else.