RugbyRebels

Ross. S wrote:http://www.taxresearch.org.uk/Blog/2016 ... -70-years/

Just going to leave this here. Probably to late to influence anything but there we go....

That is a vital piece of information that no-one believes, ever.

Donny osmond wrote:I know we've all learned not to trust the Polls, but this guy has still done some interesting research... and he reckons Labours poll surge might not be all his supporters would hope for...

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/ju ... boost-real

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I reckon that's about right, too. Labour will get 230-240 seats, imo. But it will be interesting to see what happens with potential "protest votes". Everyone I know who is not family in Twickenham is voting for Vince Cable to get rid of the Tory MP who ousted him. If that happens elsewhere, we could see a reduced Tory majority, even. And some of the UKIP voters I know - actually most of them - have been posting more pro-Labour than pro-Tory stuff on FB. Which was interesting. Not sure where they'll turn out.

But the most important thing is to actually have voted. This time - for the first time since being here - they actually sent me my postal vote in time. So I could vote this time.

Everyone else, get out there (although I know I'm preaching to the converted in an internet politics thread...).

Dunno, I very nearly didn't. Probably wouldn't have if I wasn't out already.

Never really liked the idea that putting a democratic figleaf of approval on an oligarchy is a massive civic duty and privilege for an individual. Huge for the country but the individual vote? Meh. Particularly if you don't live in a marginal.

are we nearly there yet?

Stom wrote:But the most important thing is to actually have voted. This time - for the first time since being here - they actually sent me my postal vote in time. So I could vote this time.

Everyone else, get out there (although I know I'm preaching to the converted in an internet politics thread...).

Why don't you use proxy?

Zhivago wrote:

Stom wrote:But the most important thing is to actually have voted. This time - for the first time since being here - they actually sent me my postal vote in time. So I could vote this time.

Everyone else, get out there (although I know I'm preaching to the converted in an internet politics thread...).

Why don't you use proxy?

Is that a Russian voting system?

Zhivago wrote:

Stom wrote:But the most important thing is to actually have voted. This time - for the first time since being here - they actually sent me my postal vote in time. So I could vote this time.

Everyone else, get out there (although I know I'm preaching to the converted in an internet politics thread...).

Why don't you use proxy?

A postal vote would be more useful surely? I'd only use proxy voting if I were away for the day and I asked the wife to vote on my behalf. If getting to the pollling booth is likely to be too difficult for one election, it probably would be for all, hence postal voting.

Zhivago wrote:

Stom wrote:But the most important thing is to actually have voted. This time - for the first time since being here - they actually sent me my postal vote in time. So I could vote this time.

Everyone else, get out there (although I know I'm preaching to the converted in an internet politics thread...).

Why don't you use proxy?

It would have been a hassle, and only 1 person available who I would trust to put the x in the right box. Plus, it really should not be a big deal to send papers out on time...and this time they managed.

Stom wrote:

Zhivago wrote:

Stom wrote:But the most important thing is to actually have voted. This time - for the first time since being here - they actually sent me my postal vote in time. So I could vote this time.

Everyone else, get out there (although I know I'm preaching to the converted in an internet politics thread...).

Why don't you use proxy?

It would have been a hassle, and only 1 person available who I would trust to put the x in the right box. Plus, it really should not be a big deal to send papers out on time...and this time they managed.

I'm available if you'd like your vote to go for the Monster Raving Loonies. (actually this election I did wonder about voting Monster Raving Loony Party)

Exit poll = hung parliament

I'll start thinking about sandy's new avatar...

Zhivago wrote:Exit poll = hung parliament

I'll start thinking about sandy's new avatar...

Word from both Labour and Conservative camps this is out of line with their expectations.

Zhivago wrote:Exit poll = hung parliament

I'll start thinking about sandy's new avatar...

Well know in a few hours time, what will be will be.

I still think in an exit poll people are more likely to say they didn't vote Conservative if they did, than the other way around.

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:Exit poll = hung parliament

I'll start thinking about sandy's new avatar...

Well know in a few hours time, what will be will be.

That'll make for a boring thread. More baseless speculation and arguments, please.

jared_7 wrote:I still think in an exit poll people are more likely to say they didn't vote Conservative if they did, than the other way around.

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:Exit poll = hung parliament

I'll start thinking about sandy's new avatar...

Well know in a few hours time, what will be will be.

That'll make for a boring thread. More baseless speculation and arguments, please.

The exit polls have been quite reliable recently, though...

It will be interesting, then. When I get up around 6 UK time, it'll be very interesting to see exactly where we are with seats declared.

Stom wrote:

jared_7 wrote:I still think in an exit poll people are more likely to say they didn't vote Conservative if they did, than the other way around.

Sandydragon wrote: Well know in a few hours time, what will be will be.

That'll make for a boring thread. More baseless speculation and arguments, please.

The exit polls have been quite reliable recently, though...

It will be interesting, then. When I get up around 6 UK time, it'll be very interesting to see exactly where we are with seats declared.

Except for the one prior to this.......

BBC repeatedly saying that this is based on a lot of 50/50 constituency falling the correct way. Still, you can't see it being that far wrong surely.

Mellsblue wrote:

Stom wrote:

jared_7 wrote:I still think in an exit poll people are more likely to say they didn't vote Conservative if they did, than the other way around.



That'll make for a boring thread. More baseless speculation and arguments, please.

The exit polls have been quite reliable recently, though...

It will be interesting, then. When I get up around 6 UK time, it'll be very interesting to see exactly where we are with seats declared.

Except for the one prior to this.......

BBC repeatedly saying that this is based on a lot of 50/50 constituency falling the correct way. Still, you can't see it being that far wrong surely.

The exit poll got close last time out...

The normal polls got it all wrong.

Mellsblue wrote:

Stom wrote:

jared_7 wrote:I still think in an exit poll people are more likely to say they didn't vote Conservative if they did, than the other way around.



That'll make for a boring thread. More baseless speculation and arguments, please.

The exit polls have been quite reliable recently, though...

It will be interesting, then. When I get up around 6 UK time, it'll be very interesting to see exactly where we are with seats declared.

Except for the one prior to this.......

BBC repeatedly saying that this is based on a lot of 50/50 constituency falling the correct way. Still, you can't see it being that far wrong surely.

Oh, and there are some bloody tight constituencies. And on this basis, there should be a criminal investigation into Newcastle under Lyme, that was pretty disgraceful...

Reports of up to 1,000s of overseas voters unable to vote, too. And on average we're a left leaning bunch.

Stom wrote:

Mellsblue wrote:

Stom wrote:
The exit polls have been quite reliable recently, though...

It will be interesting, then. When I get up around 6 UK time, it'll be very interesting to see exactly where we are with seats declared.

Except for the one prior to this.......

BBC repeatedly saying that this is based on a lot of 50/50 constituency falling the correct way. Still, you can't see it being that far wrong surely.

The exit poll got close last time out...

The normal polls got it all wrong.

Not for the referendum which was the last exit poll prior to this.

Stom wrote:

Mellsblue wrote:

Stom wrote:
The exit polls have been quite reliable recently, though...

It will be interesting, then. When I get up around 6 UK time, it'll be very interesting to see exactly where we are with seats declared.

Except for the one prior to this.......

BBC repeatedly saying that this is based on a lot of 50/50 constituency falling the correct way. Still, you can't see it being that far wrong surely.

Oh, and there are some bloody tight constituencies. And on this basis, there should be a criminal investigation into Newcastle under Lyme, that was pretty disgraceful...

Reports of up to 1,000s of overseas voters unable to vote, too. And on average we're a left leaning bunch.

The BBC mean that in the exit poll there are a lot of 50/50 seats that if they've got wrong could radically alter the numbers.

Mellsblue wrote:

Stom wrote:

Mellsblue wrote: Except for the one prior to this.......

BBC repeatedly saying that this is based on a lot of 50/50 constituency falling the correct way. Still, you can't see it being that far wrong surely.

Oh, and there are some bloody tight constituencies. And on this basis, there should be a criminal investigation into Newcastle under Lyme, that was pretty disgraceful...

Reports of up to 1,000s of overseas voters unable to vote, too. And on average we're a left leaning bunch.

The BBC mean that in the exit poll there are a lot of 50/50 seats that if they've got wrong could radically alter the numbers.

Sure. And those seats are being decided on 100s of votes, not 1,000s...So any voter who cannot vote is a problem. The constituency I mentioned had a majority of just 650. If more than 100 students were incorrectly turned away from voting because of an out of date form...well...

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:Exit poll = hung parliament

I'll start thinking about sandy's new avatar...

Well know in a few hours time, what will be will be.

I'll laugh if both parties have failed. Amusing so far with Tories declaring the polls false, and Labour declaring a third loss in a row a win

Digby wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:Exit poll = hung parliament

I'll start thinking about sandy's new avatar...

Well know in a few hours time, what will be will be.

I'll laugh if both parties have failed. Amusing so far with Tories declaring the polls false, and Labour declaring a third loss in a row a win

The first two declarations think the exit poll false too.
Yep, Labour claiming this as a 'victory' is hilarious.

Doing a lot better than expected is certainly a form of victory, no?

Peat wrote:Doing a lot better than expected is certainly a form of victory, no?

Especially if it forces a hung parliament when predictions were a 100-120 seat conservative victory.

It'd be like Wales forcing a draw against the All Blacks.