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Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:21 am
by WaspInWales
Which Tyler wrote:Peat wrote:Doing a lot better than expected is certainly a form of victory, no?
Especially if it forces a hung parliament when predictions were a 100-120 seat conservative victory.
It'd be like Wales forcing a draw against the All Blacks
A moral victory then...or 'if it wasn't for the ref' victory?
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:24 am
by Which Tyler
WaspInWales wrote:Which Tyler wrote:Peat wrote:Doing a lot better than expected is certainly a form of victory, no?
Especially if it forces a hung parliament when predictions were a 100-120 seat conservative victory.
It'd be like Wales forcing a draw against the All Blacks
A moral victory then...or 'if it wasn't for the ref' victory?
Oh, moral victory for shewer.
Oh, and this ETA:
https://mobile.twitter.com/LostUKIPdeposit
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 1:27 am
by WaspInWales
Which Tyler wrote:WaspInWales wrote:Which Tyler wrote:
Especially if it forces a hung parliament when predictions were a 100-120 seat conservative victory.
It'd be like Wales forcing a draw against the All Blacks
A moral victory then...or 'if it wasn't for the ref' victory?
Oh, moral victory for shewer.
Oh, and this ETA:
https://mobile.twitter.com/LostUKIPdeposit
That may well be the best use of Twitter...ever.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 5:27 am
by Sandydragon
Stom wrote:Mellsblue wrote:Stom wrote:
The exit polls have been quite reliable recently, though...
It will be interesting, then. When I get up around 6 UK time, it'll be very interesting to see exactly where we are with seats declared.
Except for the one prior to this.......
BBC repeatedly saying that this is based on a lot of 50/50 constituency falling the correct way. Still, you can't see it being that far wrong surely.
The exit poll got close last time out...
The normal polls got it all wrong.
Some were reasonably close.
So we will have a Tory DUP coalition of sorts I expect. Brexit negotiations will be interesting as every Tory mp will see an opportunity to make their voice heard. With that range of opinion, i expect may will need some labour support at some point.
Interesting that the Tory vote is actually up on last time (% wise), I can't remember the last time a sitting government managed that and lost seats. Th ecollapse of ukip is having a huge impact.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 6:27 am
by Digby
Peat wrote:Doing a lot better than expected is certainly a form of victory, no?
I'd say no as they should never have had such low expectations. To label them winners would be like calling Neil Kinnock a winner, and nobody does that.
Either of our major parties should be winning a 3rd election to get back into government, so Labour's results today are akin to the Tories under Michael Howard, and again nobody calls him a winner, though people tend to be very happy to call him a loser
Re: RE: Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:07 am
by canta_brian
Digby wrote:Peat wrote:Doing a lot better than expected is certainly a form of victory, no?
I'd say no as they should never have had such low expectations. To label them winners would be like calling Neil Kinnock a winner, and nobody does that.
Either of our major parties should be winning a 3rd election to get back into government, so Labour's results today are akin to the Tories under Michael Howard, and again nobody calls him a winner, though people tend to be very happy to call him a loser
You on drugs?
Tory called snap election on the back of huge poll numbers. Corbyn being written off by pretty much every person in Britain. Result, hung parliament. To suggest that this is not a victory for Labour and Corbyn in particular is just churlish.
Re: RE: Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:24 am
by jared_7
canta_brian wrote:Digby wrote:Peat wrote:Doing a lot better than expected is certainly a form of victory, no?
I'd say no as they should never have had such low expectations. To label them winners would be like calling Neil Kinnock a winner, and nobody does that.
Either of our major parties should be winning a 3rd election to get back into government, so Labour's results today are akin to the Tories under Michael Howard, and again nobody calls him a winner, though people tend to be very happy to call him a loser
You on drugs?
Tory called snap election on the back of huge poll numbers. Corbyn being written off by pretty much every person in Britain. Result, hung parliament. To suggest that this is not a victory for Labour and Corbyn in particular is just churlish.
It's amazing what Corbin achieved in such a short time, finally getting some unfiltered press. The real losers are the Blairites who jumped ship because he was "unelectable", imagine what could have been achieved if they hadn't been squabbling for the last 2 years?
BBC correspondent saying a handful of Labour MPs who appeared on their coverage had prewritten speeches prepared to rubbish Corbyn and call for his resignation, again. Apparently had to rush to prepare something nice to say
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 7:56 am
by Mellsblue
Is it amazing? Running on a manifesto that promised the world to all but those nasty people who earn a lot, if you can call £80,000 in the south east a lot, that was economically illiterate and was rubbished by the IFS, and that had only a slim chance of actually being fulfilled. He was also running against a government that presided over seven years of austerity and that ran an utterly woeful campaign. He had Remainers handed to him on a plate in pro-EU seats in which the Lib Dems weren't a viable option and yet he still didn't win or get close to having the numbers to form a coalition.
Re: RE: Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:00 am
by Digby
canta_brian wrote:Digby wrote:Peat wrote:Doing a lot better than expected is certainly a form of victory, no?
I'd say no as they should never have had such low expectations. To label them winners would be like calling Neil Kinnock a winner, and nobody does that.
Either of our major parties should be winning a 3rd election to get back into government, so Labour's results today are akin to the Tories under Michael Howard, and again nobody calls him a winner, though people tend to be very happy to call him a loser
You on drugs?
Tory called snap election on the back of huge poll numbers. Corbyn being written off by pretty much every person in Britain. Result, hung parliament. To suggest that this is not a victory for Labour and Corbyn in particular is just churlish.
Well I was drinking herb tea last night, but as that was just Twinings Lemon & Ginger I suspect I'd be okay.
And my point is the Labour party should have never been trailing like that, it's absurd to even remotely defend that when they're up against a 3rd term austerity Tory opposition. And even absent of that being odd seats behind isn't a win, it's a loss.
Corbyn has done better than Milliband, but that's not good enough.
Re: RE: Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:09 am
by jared_7
Digby wrote:canta_brian wrote:Digby wrote:
I'd say no as they should never have had such low expectations. To label them winners would be like calling Neil Kinnock a winner, and nobody does that.
Either of our major parties should be winning a 3rd election to get back into government, so Labour's results today are akin to the Tories under Michael Howard, and again nobody calls him a winner, though people tend to be very happy to call him a loser
You on drugs?
Tory called snap election on the back of huge poll numbers. Corbyn being written off by pretty much every person in Britain. Result, hung parliament. To suggest that this is not a victory for Labour and Corbyn in particular is just churlish.
Well I was drinking herb tea last night, but as that was just Twinings Lemon & Ginger I suspect I'd be okay.
And my point is the Labour party should have never been trailing like that, it's absurd to even remotely defend that when they're up against a 3rd term austerity Tory opposition. And even absent of that being odd seats behind isn't a win, it's a loss.
Corbyn has done better than Milliband, but that's not good enough.
But you refuse to accept the reason why they are so far behind is in-fighting, and place all of the blame for that infighting on the elected leader rather than those under him causing the problems in the first place.
You are completely right this is not where Labour should be, the last 2 years have been an absolute writeoff and basically only started acting like the party should a couple of months ago.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:14 am
by jared_7
Little turds like Owen Jones have done an unsurprising u-turn, a man who for 2 years was unelectable despite never running an election campaign is all of a sudden "fine prime minister material".
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:15 am
by Peat
Twinings Lemon & Ginger is the shiznit. Good choice man.
Yeah, Labour should never have been in this position, but there's only so much blame that can be apportioned to Corbyn here. He had very little to do with landing them in the hole and, while he could have done a better job digging them out prior to this election, he was well up against it. And he did pretty much the best imaginable job here.
It is pretty pathetic that the Labour's busy going "Whoo hoo" when in reality they've still come behind a party that haven't been able to win a clean majority since 1992. Oops, sorry, did it once. Pathetic from both. We live in an age of political pygmies.
Re: RE: Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:17 am
by Digby
jared_7 wrote:Digby wrote:canta_brian wrote:
You on drugs?
Tory called snap election on the back of huge poll numbers. Corbyn being written off by pretty much every person in Britain. Result, hung parliament. To suggest that this is not a victory for Labour and Corbyn in particular is just churlish.
Well I was drinking herb tea last night, but as that was just Twinings Lemon & Ginger I suspect I'd be okay.
And my point is the Labour party should have never been trailing like that, it's absurd to even remotely defend that when they're up against a 3rd term austerity Tory opposition. And even absent of that being odd seats behind isn't a win, it's a loss.
Corbyn has done better than Milliband, but that's not good enough.
But you refuse to accept the reason why they are so far behind is in-fighting, and place all of the blame for that infighting on the elected leader rather than those under him causing the problems in the first place.
You are completely right this is not where Labour should be, the last 2 years have been an absolute writeoff and basically only started acting like the party should a couple of months ago.
Maybe the infighting is part of the reason, but every party leader has to contend with that. How you control that or not is part of what you're judged on, it's not an issue one should use to absolve a party leader
Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:18 am
by canta_brian
jared_7 wrote:Digby wrote:canta_brian wrote:
You on drugs?
Tory called snap election on the back of huge poll numbers. Corbyn being written off by pretty much every person in Britain. Result, hung parliament. To suggest that this is not a victory for Labour and Corbyn in particular is just churlish.
Well I was drinking herb tea last night, but as that was just Twinings Lemon & Ginger I suspect I'd be okay.
And my point is the Labour party should have never been trailing like that, it's absurd to even remotely defend that when they're up against a 3rd term austerity Tory opposition. And even absent of that being odd seats behind isn't a win, it's a loss.
Corbyn has done better than Milliband, but that's not good enough.
But you refuse to accept the reason why they are so far behind is in-fighting, and place all of the blame for that infighting on the elected leader rather than those under him causing the problems in the first place.
You are completely right this is not where Labour should be, the last 2 years have been an absolute writeoff and basically only started acting like the party should a couple of months ago.
Seems Corbyn has played a blinder. May, on the other hand. Seems May is refusing to step down if Lauren Knussb... Keunsber... Oh what's her name, is correct. That's just wonderful. Her obvious talent is just what we need going into the brexit negotiations in 11 days.
So she supported remain
Flipped to leave to get the top job
Flipped to call a snap election thinking labour were down and out
Made a twat of herself by saying the Europeans were being mean after that number 10 dinner
Lost a parliamentary majority with big gains to the unelectable Corbyn.
She'll do just fine in the brexit negotiations. She's obviously a talent.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:19 am
by Digby
Peat wrote:Twinings Lemon & Ginger is the shiznit. Good choice man.
You say that, but it seems like only the other week I'd have been staying up for much of the election if not all of it whilst drinking champagne.
Re: RE: Re: RE: Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:24 am
by Digby
canta_brian wrote:Seems May is refusing to step down if Lauren Knussb... Keunsber... Oh what's her name, is correct. That's just wonderful. Her obvious talent is just what we need going into the brexit negotiations in 11 days.
Kuenssberg.
May will not last until the next election as she'd not be allowed to fight it even if she wants to. Whether the Tories seek an immediate new leader, whether they try to make some progress on Brexit first allowing May to take some hits so the new person can step in to sort it out, whether May simply quite, whether even we ask the EU for a stay of execution on leaving the EU I don't know, and really they're not likely to know just 5-6 hours later after the scale of their disastrous night was confirmed.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:38 am
by Sandydragon
There is no way that May will lead another election campaign. None. The only reason she isn't busy packing right now, and I understand the likes of BoJo are taking soundings, is that a leadership contest now would be a disaster. Brexit is happening and we can't piss about with a leadership contest now. Once we have a deal in place, I expect those knives being sharpened to be deployed.
It's also in a lot of people's interests to keep May in place. Many Tories don't want Boris but there aren't too many contenders at the moment. I'm not sure Corbyn would want her to go either. If he takes the long view, he is in a great position. He has gained additional seats and regained votes from ukip and other protest parties. He can now watch a weakened PM take the full rap for Brexit whilst chucking grenades in from the sidelines and hoping to capitalise if the Tories fall apart, which given the volatility of the conservative right wing, is quite likely, particularly if May has to compromise and get support of other parties.
Better for Corbyn to have come a close second last night and look to capitalise in a few years time, as I don't think this government will last 5 years.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:39 am
by Peat
Digby wrote:Peat wrote:Twinings Lemon & Ginger is the shiznit. Good choice man.
You say that, but it seems like only the other week I'd have been staying up for much of the election if not all of it whilst drinking champagne.
Champagne is heavily overrated.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:49 am
by Digby
Peat wrote:Digby wrote:Peat wrote:Twinings Lemon & Ginger is the shiznit. Good choice man.
You say that, but it seems like only the other week I'd have been staying up for much of the election if not all of it whilst drinking champagne.
Champagne is heavily overrated.
I agree, and normally I'd consider sparkling wine a better and cheaper alternative. But sometimes it's just a time for champagne
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 8:58 am
by Big D
Once again regardless of content of her campaign Ruth Davidson has had a positive night in Scotland. Tory HQ might keep an eye on that one and get her involved. She seems to know how to strike a chord with the electorate in Scotland.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:06 am
by Banquo
Big D wrote:Once again regardless of content of her campaign Ruth Davidson has had a positive night in Scotland. Tory HQ might keep an eye on that one and get her involved. She seems to know how to strike a chord with the electorate in Scotland.
indeed, polar opposite to May in terms of charisma, energy and debating
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:07 am
by Banquo
McDonnell wants to form a coalition government
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:18 am
by Digby
Banquo wrote:McDonnell wants to form a coalition government
Does he say wants? Though no matter what he wants close friends may persuade him it's in the best interests of the country for him to put aside what he wants and take any opportunity to serve.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:30 am
by Banquo
Digby wrote:Banquo wrote:McDonnell wants to form a coalition government
Does he say wants? Though no matter what he wants close friends may persuade him it's in the best interests of the country for him to put aside what he wants and take any opportunity to serve.
just heard him say it
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Jun 09, 2017 9:33 am
by Stom
Banquo wrote:McDonnell wants to form a coalition government
Did he not say Minority Government? With policy by policy support.
Could we have competing Queen's Speeches?