Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 2:10 pm
Thing is, Braverman is being such a pain that she might be damaging her own chances. The conservative activists are more to the right than many of their MPs, but they also value loyalty to the leader and she has none of that. To be fair, disloyalty did boris no harm, but that was probably as much the brexit effect. They also won’t get to vote for her unless she makes the final 2 candidates and that’s not certain if she is helping to make the conservatives look more of a basket case than they are already.
Who pushes her out of the final two though? Mordaunt will get through as the establishment choice, but I don't see anyone stopping Suella DeVille from claiming the other spot.
Mind, having said that, it does depend who the Tory MPs are that survive the next election. A fair few of the right wing will lose their seats based on current polls.
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 2:10 pm
Thing is, Braverman is being such a pain that she might be damaging her own chances. The conservative activists are more to the right than many of their MPs, but they also value loyalty to the leader and she has none of that. To be fair, disloyalty did boris no harm, but that was probably as much the brexit effect. They also won’t get to vote for her unless she makes the final 2 candidates and that’s not certain if she is helping to make the conservatives look more of a basket case than they are already.
Who pushes her out of the final two though? Mordaunt will get through as the establishment choice, but I don't see anyone stopping Suella DeVille from claiming the other spot.
Mind, having said that, it does depend who the Tory MPs are that survive the next election. A fair few of the right wing will lose their seats based on current polls.
Puja
Your last point makes it very difficult to predict. Mordaunt has a decent chance but so too do some others and some of the rumours suggest that whilst a right winger in the cabinet is popular with the right wing, Suella isn't necessarily that popular herself. Im hoping that the ERG remnants will be properly battered at the election, but that's not aa certainty.
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 2:10 pm
Thing is, Braverman is being such a pain that she might be damaging her own chances. The conservative activists are more to the right than many of their MPs, but they also value loyalty to the leader and she has none of that. To be fair, disloyalty did boris no harm, but that was probably as much the brexit effect. They also won’t get to vote for her unless she makes the final 2 candidates and that’s not certain if she is helping to make the conservatives look more of a basket case than they are already.
Who pushes her out of the final two though? Mordaunt will get through as the establishment choice, but I don't see anyone stopping Suella DeVille from claiming the other spot.
Mind, having said that, it does depend who the Tory MPs are that survive the next election. A fair few of the right wing will lose their seats based on current polls.
Puja
I'm hoping there'll be about 10 of them left at that point.
Interesting reading for the inevitable Tory leadership contest. In a Tory members' poll Cleverly and Badenoch are top, followed by Mordaunt, Johnny Mercer (whoever that is) and Braverman in the next tier.
It hugely depends on how much of the ERG is left. They will effectively be a block vote for the right. If the rest of the party can push forward two credible candidates, or at least not total nutter candidates, then the votes of the membership won’t be important.
On a slightly depressing note. We could still have over a year of this psychodrama to go of Sunak holds onto the bitter end.
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 4:43 pm
It hugely depends on how much of the ERG is left. They will effectively be a block vote for the right. If the rest of the party can push forward two credible candidates, or at least not total nutter candidates, then the votes of the membership won’t be important.
On a slightly depressing note. We could still have over a year of this psychodrama to go of Sunak holds onto the bitter end.
I wonder how the 1922 Committee will try to stitch things up next time? That might be the only hope for the sane wing of the party - I'm not sure they'll have enough support to get the top two candidates, but if they have the most popular amongst the MPs they can set the entry level ridiculously high again. Although that could backfire horrifically. But, yeah, it depends on what remains of the parliamentary party at that point (not to mention the leadership candidates).
Yeah, with Boris out of the way I expect Sunak will continue till the last possible moment.
The members polling was surprising to me though - seeing Badenoch above Bravaman. But that poll was before this week's lunacy from Bravaman - who knows if it will have been good or bad for her. I expect the lack of rioting from the peace march will not have helped her. Anyway, some Rwanda lunacy to come this week, see how that goes.
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 4:43 pm
It hugely depends on how much of the ERG is left. They will effectively be a block vote for the right. If the rest of the party can push forward two credible candidates, or at least not total nutter candidates, then the votes of the membership won’t be important.
On a slightly depressing note. We could still have over a year of this psychodrama to go of Sunak holds onto the bitter end.
I wonder how the 1922 Committee will try to stitch things up next time? That might be the only hope for the sane wing of the party - I'm not sure they'll have enough support to get the top two candidates, but if they have the most popular amongst the MPs they can set the entry level ridiculously high again. Although that could backfire horrifically. But, yeah, it depends on what remains of the parliamentary party at that point (not to mention the leadership candidates).
Yeah, with Boris out of the way I expect Sunak will continue till the last possible moment.
The members polling was surprising to me though - seeing Badenoch above Bravaman. But that poll was before this week's lunacy from Bravaman - who knows if it will have been good or bad for her. I expect the lack of rioting from the peace march will not have helped her. Anyway, some Rwanda lunacy to come this week, see how that goes.
I don’t think the 1922 will be able to set such a high bar for entry again. Last time it was because we were in economic dire straights and multiple voting rounds helped no one. Less of an issue in opposition. If Rwanda actually comes off then Braverman will get a lot of kudos amongst the right, if the courts throw it out then she must be toast and potentially seen as a useless minister, which won’t help her regardless of her ideology.
I was just wondering whether Braverman has been told to expect bad news on the Rwanda court case? If she fails to get that through then she probably gets sacked and just looks incompetent. But, if she is seen to be sacked for standing up for traditional British values then it might cover up for some of her failings. She’s always been outspoken but seems to have gone into overdrive in the last week or so.
Until we know the makeup of the Conservative Party post election, it’s really hard to predict anything. I do think it will be an ugly contest between the middle ground and the UKIP entryists over the future of the party.
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 4:43 pm
It hugely depends on how much of the ERG is left. They will effectively be a block vote for the right. If the rest of the party can push forward two credible candidates, or at least not total nutter candidates, then the votes of the membership won’t be important.
On a slightly depressing note. We could still have over a year of this psychodrama to go of Sunak holds onto the bitter end.
I wonder how the 1922 Committee will try to stitch things up next time? That might be the only hope for the sane wing of the party - I'm not sure they'll have enough support to get the top two candidates, but if they have the most popular amongst the MPs they can set the entry level ridiculously high again. Although that could backfire horrifically. But, yeah, it depends on what remains of the parliamentary party at that point (not to mention the leadership candidates).
Yeah, with Boris out of the way I expect Sunak will continue till the last possible moment.
The members polling was surprising to me though - seeing Badenoch above Bravaman. But that poll was before this week's lunacy from Bravaman - who knows if it will have been good or bad for her. I expect the lack of rioting from the peace march will not have helped her. Anyway, some Rwanda lunacy to come this week, see how that goes.
I don’t think the 1922 will be able to set such a high bar for entry again. Last time it was because we were in economic dire straights and multiple voting rounds helped no one. Less of an issue in opposition. If Rwanda actually comes off then Braverman will get a lot of kudos amongst the right, if the courts throw it out then she must be toast and potentially seen as a useless minister, which won’t help her regardless of her ideology.
I was just wondering whether Braverman has been told to expect bad news on the Rwanda court case? If she fails to get that through then she probably gets sacked and just looks incompetent. But, if she is seen to be sacked for standing up for traditional British values then it might cover up for some of her failings. She’s always been outspoken but seems to have gone into overdrive in the last week or so.
Until we know the makeup of the Conservative Party post election, it’s really hard to predict anything. I do think it will be an ugly contest between the middle ground and the UKIP entryists over the future of the party.
There's no such thing as bad news for Braverman on Rwanda. Either it goes through and she's a right wing hero, or it gets blocked by liberal lefty judges and she gets to declare that the only resort is to leave the ECHR and resign in protest if Ready4Rish! doesn't make it government policy, thus making her a right wing hero while also inuring her from being associated with the incoming election loss.
I was curious and looked it up and unfortunately it looks like Braverman is in the safest of all possible safe seats. Had a brief moment of hope with the thought that she might lose hers in the next election, but polling says it's only possible if Lib Dems actively withdrew from fighting it.
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 4:43 pm
It hugely depends on how much of the ERG is left. They will effectively be a block vote for the right. If the rest of the party can push forward two credible candidates, or at least not total nutter candidates, then the votes of the membership won’t be important.
On a slightly depressing note. We could still have over a year of this psychodrama to go of Sunak holds onto the bitter end.
I wonder how the 1922 Committee will try to stitch things up next time? That might be the only hope for the sane wing of the party - I'm not sure they'll have enough support to get the top two candidates, but if they have the most popular amongst the MPs they can set the entry level ridiculously high again. Although that could backfire horrifically. But, yeah, it depends on what remains of the parliamentary party at that point (not to mention the leadership candidates).
Yeah, with Boris out of the way I expect Sunak will continue till the last possible moment.
The members polling was surprising to me though - seeing Badenoch above Bravaman. But that poll was before this week's lunacy from Bravaman - who knows if it will have been good or bad for her. I expect the lack of rioting from the peace march will not have helped her. Anyway, some Rwanda lunacy to come this week, see how that goes.
I don’t think the 1922 will be able to set such a high bar for entry again. Last time it was because we were in economic dire straights and multiple voting rounds helped no one. Less of an issue in opposition. If Rwanda actually comes off then Braverman will get a lot of kudos amongst the right, if the courts throw it out then she must be toast and potentially seen as a useless minister, which won’t help her regardless of her ideology.
No, it was to make sure Sunak won rather than Johnson again.
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 6:13 pm
I wonder how the 1922 Committee will try to stitch things up next time? That might be the only hope for the sane wing of the party - I'm not sure they'll have enough support to get the top two candidates, but if they have the most popular amongst the MPs they can set the entry level ridiculously high again. Although that could backfire horrifically. But, yeah, it depends on what remains of the parliamentary party at that point (not to mention the leadership candidates).
Yeah, with Boris out of the way I expect Sunak will continue till the last possible moment.
The members polling was surprising to me though - seeing Badenoch above Bravaman. But that poll was before this week's lunacy from Bravaman - who knows if it will have been good or bad for her. I expect the lack of rioting from the peace march will not have helped her. Anyway, some Rwanda lunacy to come this week, see how that goes.
I don’t think the 1922 will be able to set such a high bar for entry again. Last time it was because we were in economic dire straights and multiple voting rounds helped no one. Less of an issue in opposition. If Rwanda actually comes off then Braverman will get a lot of kudos amongst the right, if the courts throw it out then she must be toast and potentially seen as a useless minister, which won’t help her regardless of her ideology.
No, it was to make sure Sunak won rather than Johnson again.
Partially but it was only supported because of the situation. Normally that wouldn’t have received backing.
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 8:39 pm
Except Sunak is more likely to sack her if project Rwanda falls on its face.
You genuinely think he's got the minerals? Not like she hasn't given him plenty of other reasons to sack her previously that he's turned down.
Puja
If he replaced her with another right winger he would get away with it. She would be a shit thrower from the outside, but keeping her close ain’t stopping that so he hasn’t got that much to lose and this is further impacting Tory credibility.
I wonder if getting sacked is down to her lifestyle choices?
It was so much easier to blame Them. It was bleakly depressing to think They were Us. I've certainly never thought of myself as one of Them. No one ever thinks of themselves as one of Them. We're always one of Us. It's Them that do the bad things.
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 8:42 am
Looks like he does have the minerals after all.
Now let's hope that she's also cocked up her calculus on how many letters will be sent to the 1922 committee over her sacking.
I'm all for the tories tearing lumps out of each other in public, but the last thing we need is the slightest hope of PM Braverman (or PM Patel for that matter)
I compulsively click on this thread every so often without thinking about and usually it makes me want to blow my brains out, but Braverman gone feels like an objectively great bit of news. It's hard to imagine she is a figure that others will stick their neck out for at this point, no? Whilst they're all basically awful I think most are more callous/ignorant than evil. Braverman however seems like a truly bad person.
I don’t think the 1922 will be able to set such a high bar for entry again. Last time it was because we were in economic dire straights and multiple voting rounds helped no one. Less of an issue in opposition. If Rwanda actually comes off then Braverman will get a lot of kudos amongst the right, if the courts throw it out then she must be toast and potentially seen as a useless minister, which won’t help her regardless of her ideology.
No, it was to make sure Sunak won rather than Johnson again.
Partially but it was only supported because of the situation. Normally that wouldn’t have received backing.
Well I'm no expert on the internal workings of the Tory party but from the outside it looks like they can make up any rules they want. In that event they knew that had to keep the members out of it because they'd probably have brought Johnson back.
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 8:42 am
Looks like he does have the minerals after all.
This was actually how I found out the good news!
Cleverly in as home secretary in a boost to his leadership credentials, and David Cameron in as foreign secretary rather than bringing another right winger in to "balance" the cabinet. An absolute and concrete rebuke to the right wing for pushing too hard - Ready4Rish! does indeed have more guts than I gave him credit for.
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 8:42 am
Looks like he does have the minerals after all.
This was actually how I found out the good news!
Cleverly in as home secretary in a boost to his leadership credentials, and David Cameron in as foreign secretary rather than bringing another right winger in to "balance" the cabinet. An absolute and concrete rebuke to the right wing for pushing too hard - Ready4Rish! does indeed have more guts than I gave him credit for.
Let's see if that works out for him...
Puja
I still think he is toast at the election but Cameron will enjoy winding the right of the party up and Braverman will turn up the volume so expect some fireworks
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 10:14 pm No, it was to make sure Sunak won rather than Johnson again.
Partially but it was only supported because of the situation. Normally that wouldn’t have received backing.
Well I'm no expert on the internal workings of the Tory party but from the outside it looks like they can make up any rules they want. In that event they knew that had to keep the members out of it because they'd probably have brought Johnson back.
Johnson had the support of about 100 or so MPs, probably a few more who might have quietly acquiesced. If that had been the stated intention the 1922 would have had a riot. But with the economy tanking the logic of not drawing out a long battle as we had numerous hustings and rounds of voting was one they could push.
As it was , Boris probably could have secure the 100 votes, and indeed claimed to have done so.
Braverman gone. Yeah, that's good. Only because she was undermining the police though.
And we're getting 13 years of Tory decline, austerity boy, lobbyist David Cameron (presumably soon to be Lord Cameron?) back. Hilarious. Let's bring back Osbourne while we're at it.
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 8:29 am
Partially but it was only supported because of the situation. Normally that wouldn’t have received backing.
Well I'm no expert on the internal workings of the Tory party but from the outside it looks like they can make up any rules they want. In that event they knew that had to keep the members out of it because they'd probably have brought Johnson back.
Johnson had the support of about 100 or so MPs, probably a few more who might have quietly acquiesced. If that had been the stated intention the 1922 would have had a riot. But with the economy tanking the logic of not drawing out a long battle as we had numerous hustings and rounds of voting was one they could push.
As it was , Boris probably could have secure the 100 votes, and indeed claimed to have done so.
Johnson said he had about 100 MPs backing him. So it must be true.
He cut short a holiday to come back for the contest. It was the perfect opportunity to have revenge on Sunak and the Tories who'd taken him down. Only his failure to secure the necessary support would have stopped him from running.
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 10:12 am
Well I'm no expert on the internal workings of the Tory party but from the outside it looks like they can make up any rules they want. In that event they knew that had to keep the members out of it because they'd probably have brought Johnson back.
Johnson had the support of about 100 or so MPs, probably a few more who might have quietly acquiesced. If that had been the stated intention the 1922 would have had a riot. But with the economy tanking the logic of not drawing out a long battle as we had numerous hustings and rounds of voting was one they could push.
As it was , Boris probably could have secure the 100 votes, and indeed claimed to have done so.
Johnson said he had about 100 MPs backing him. So it must be true.
He cut short a holiday to come back for the contest. It was the perfect opportunity to have revenge on Sunak and the Tories who'd taken him down. Only his failure to secure the necessary support would have stopped him from running.
Brady suggested that the threshold has indeed been met. But I also suspect that as chair of the 1922 they had a chat over port and the realities were made clear to Boris
