RugbyRebels

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 2:10 pm Thing is, Braverman is being such a pain that she might be damaging her own chances. The conservative activists are more to the right than many of their MPs, but they also value loyalty to the leader and she has none of that. To be fair, disloyalty did boris no harm, but that was probably as much the brexit effect. They also won’t get to vote for her unless she makes the final 2 candidates and that’s not certain if she is helping to make the conservatives look more of a basket case than they are already.

Puja wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 7:52 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 2:10 pm Thing is, Braverman is being such a pain that she might be damaging her own chances. The conservative activists are more to the right than many of their MPs, but they also value loyalty to the leader and she has none of that. To be fair, disloyalty did boris no harm, but that was probably as much the brexit effect. They also won’t get to vote for her unless she makes the final 2 candidates and that’s not certain if she is helping to make the conservatives look more of a basket case than they are already.

Who pushes her out of the final two though? Mordaunt will get through as the establishment choice, but I don't see anyone stopping Suella DeVille from claiming the other spot.

Mind, having said that, it does depend who the Tory MPs are that survive the next election. A fair few of the right wing will lose their seats based on current polls.

Puja

Puja wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 7:52 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sat Nov 11, 2023 2:10 pm Thing is, Braverman is being such a pain that she might be damaging her own chances. The conservative activists are more to the right than many of their MPs, but they also value loyalty to the leader and she has none of that. To be fair, disloyalty did boris no harm, but that was probably as much the brexit effect. They also won’t get to vote for her unless she makes the final 2 candidates and that’s not certain if she is helping to make the conservatives look more of a basket case than they are already.

Who pushes her out of the final two though? Mordaunt will get through as the establishment choice, but I don't see anyone stopping Suella DeVille from claiming the other spot.

Mind, having said that, it does depend who the Tory MPs are that survive the next election. A fair few of the right wing will lose their seats based on current polls.

Puja

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 4:43 pm It hugely depends on how much of the ERG is left. They will effectively be a block vote for the right. If the rest of the party can push forward two credible candidates, or at least not total nutter candidates, then the votes of the membership won’t be important.

On a slightly depressing note. We could still have over a year of this psychodrama to go of Sunak holds onto the bitter end.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 6:13 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 4:43 pm It hugely depends on how much of the ERG is left. They will effectively be a block vote for the right. If the rest of the party can push forward two credible candidates, or at least not total nutter candidates, then the votes of the membership won’t be important.

On a slightly depressing note. We could still have over a year of this psychodrama to go of Sunak holds onto the bitter end.

I wonder how the 1922 Committee will try to stitch things up next time? That might be the only hope for the sane wing of the party - I'm not sure they'll have enough support to get the top two candidates, but if they have the most popular amongst the MPs they can set the entry level ridiculously high again. Although that could backfire horrifically. But, yeah, it depends on what remains of the parliamentary party at that point (not to mention the leadership candidates).

Yeah, with Boris out of the way I expect Sunak will continue till the last possible moment.

The members polling was surprising to me though - seeing Badenoch above Bravaman. But that poll was before this week's lunacy from Bravaman - who knows if it will have been good or bad for her. I expect the lack of rioting from the peace march will not have helped her. Anyway, some Rwanda lunacy to come this week, see how that goes.

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 6:46 pm

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 6:13 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 4:43 pm It hugely depends on how much of the ERG is left. They will effectively be a block vote for the right. If the rest of the party can push forward two credible candidates, or at least not total nutter candidates, then the votes of the membership won’t be important.

On a slightly depressing note. We could still have over a year of this psychodrama to go of Sunak holds onto the bitter end.

I wonder how the 1922 Committee will try to stitch things up next time? That might be the only hope for the sane wing of the party - I'm not sure they'll have enough support to get the top two candidates, but if they have the most popular amongst the MPs they can set the entry level ridiculously high again. Although that could backfire horrifically. But, yeah, it depends on what remains of the parliamentary party at that point (not to mention the leadership candidates).

Yeah, with Boris out of the way I expect Sunak will continue till the last possible moment.

The members polling was surprising to me though - seeing Badenoch above Bravaman. But that poll was before this week's lunacy from Bravaman - who knows if it will have been good or bad for her. I expect the lack of rioting from the peace march will not have helped her. Anyway, some Rwanda lunacy to come this week, see how that goes.

I don’t think the 1922 will be able to set such a high bar for entry again. Last time it was because we were in economic dire straights and multiple voting rounds helped no one. Less of an issue in opposition. If Rwanda actually comes off then Braverman will get a lot of kudos amongst the right, if the courts throw it out then she must be toast and potentially seen as a useless minister, which won’t help her regardless of her ideology.

I was just wondering whether Braverman has been told to expect bad news on the Rwanda court case? If she fails to get that through then she probably gets sacked and just looks incompetent. But, if she is seen to be sacked for standing up for traditional British values then it might cover up for some of her failings. She’s always been outspoken but seems to have gone into overdrive in the last week or so.
Until we know the makeup of the Conservative Party post election, it’s really hard to predict anything. I do think it will be an ugly contest between the middle ground and the UKIP entryists over the future of the party.

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 6:46 pm

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 6:13 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 4:43 pm It hugely depends on how much of the ERG is left. They will effectively be a block vote for the right. If the rest of the party can push forward two credible candidates, or at least not total nutter candidates, then the votes of the membership won’t be important.

On a slightly depressing note. We could still have over a year of this psychodrama to go of Sunak holds onto the bitter end.

I wonder how the 1922 Committee will try to stitch things up next time? That might be the only hope for the sane wing of the party - I'm not sure they'll have enough support to get the top two candidates, but if they have the most popular amongst the MPs they can set the entry level ridiculously high again. Although that could backfire horrifically. But, yeah, it depends on what remains of the parliamentary party at that point (not to mention the leadership candidates).

Yeah, with Boris out of the way I expect Sunak will continue till the last possible moment.

The members polling was surprising to me though - seeing Badenoch above Bravaman. But that poll was before this week's lunacy from Bravaman - who knows if it will have been good or bad for her. I expect the lack of rioting from the peace march will not have helped her. Anyway, some Rwanda lunacy to come this week, see how that goes.

I don’t think the 1922 will be able to set such a high bar for entry again. Last time it was because we were in economic dire straights and multiple voting rounds helped no one. Less of an issue in opposition. If Rwanda actually comes off then Braverman will get a lot of kudos amongst the right, if the courts throw it out then she must be toast and potentially seen as a useless minister, which won’t help her regardless of her ideology.

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 8:39 pm Except Sunak is more likely to sack her if project Rwanda falls on its face.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 10:14 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 6:46 pm

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 6:13 pm
I wonder how the 1922 Committee will try to stitch things up next time? That might be the only hope for the sane wing of the party - I'm not sure they'll have enough support to get the top two candidates, but if they have the most popular amongst the MPs they can set the entry level ridiculously high again. Although that could backfire horrifically. But, yeah, it depends on what remains of the parliamentary party at that point (not to mention the leadership candidates).

Yeah, with Boris out of the way I expect Sunak will continue till the last possible moment.

The members polling was surprising to me though - seeing Badenoch above Bravaman. But that poll was before this week's lunacy from Bravaman - who knows if it will have been good or bad for her. I expect the lack of rioting from the peace march will not have helped her. Anyway, some Rwanda lunacy to come this week, see how that goes.

I don’t think the 1922 will be able to set such a high bar for entry again. Last time it was because we were in economic dire straights and multiple voting rounds helped no one. Less of an issue in opposition. If Rwanda actually comes off then Braverman will get a lot of kudos amongst the right, if the courts throw it out then she must be toast and potentially seen as a useless minister, which won’t help her regardless of her ideology.

No, it was to make sure Sunak won rather than Johnson again.

Puja wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 12:39 am

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 8:39 pm Except Sunak is more likely to sack her if project Rwanda falls on its face.

You genuinely think he's got the minerals? Not like she hasn't given him plenty of other reasons to sack her previously that he's turned down.

Puja

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 8:42 am Looks like he does have the minerals after all.

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 8:29 am

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 10:14 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 6:46 pm

I don’t think the 1922 will be able to set such a high bar for entry again. Last time it was because we were in economic dire straights and multiple voting rounds helped no one. Less of an issue in opposition. If Rwanda actually comes off then Braverman will get a lot of kudos amongst the right, if the courts throw it out then she must be toast and potentially seen as a useless minister, which won’t help her regardless of her ideology.

No, it was to make sure Sunak won rather than Johnson again.

Partially but it was only supported because of the situation. Normally that wouldn’t have received backing.

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 8:42 am Looks like he does have the minerals after all.

Puja wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 10:15 am

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 8:42 am Looks like he does have the minerals after all.

This was actually how I found out the good news!

Cleverly in as home secretary in a boost to his leadership credentials, and David Cameron in as foreign secretary rather than bringing another right winger in to "balance" the cabinet. An absolute and concrete rebuke to the right wing for pushing too hard - Ready4Rish! does indeed have more guts than I gave him credit for.

Let's see if that works out for him...

Puja

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 10:12 am

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 8:29 am

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Sun Nov 12, 2023 10:14 pm
No, it was to make sure Sunak won rather than Johnson again.

Partially but it was only supported because of the situation. Normally that wouldn’t have received backing.

Well I'm no expert on the internal workings of the Tory party but from the outside it looks like they can make up any rules they want. In that event they knew that had to keep the members out of it because they'd probably have brought Johnson back.

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 10:20 am

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 10:12 am

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 8:29 am
Partially but it was only supported because of the situation. Normally that wouldn’t have received backing.

Well I'm no expert on the internal workings of the Tory party but from the outside it looks like they can make up any rules they want. In that event they knew that had to keep the members out of it because they'd probably have brought Johnson back.

Johnson had the support of about 100 or so MPs, probably a few more who might have quietly acquiesced. If that had been the stated intention the 1922 would have had a riot. But with the economy tanking the logic of not drawing out a long battle as we had numerous hustings and rounds of voting was one they could push.

As it was , Boris probably could have secure the 100 votes, and indeed claimed to have done so.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 10:25 am Let's bring back Osbourne while we're at it.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 10:34 am

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 10:20 am

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 13, 2023 10:12 am
Well I'm no expert on the internal workings of the Tory party but from the outside it looks like they can make up any rules they want. In that event they knew that had to keep the members out of it because they'd probably have brought Johnson back.

Johnson had the support of about 100 or so MPs, probably a few more who might have quietly acquiesced. If that had been the stated intention the 1922 would have had a riot. But with the economy tanking the logic of not drawing out a long battle as we had numerous hustings and rounds of voting was one they could push.

As it was , Boris probably could have secure the 100 votes, and indeed claimed to have done so.

Johnson said he had about 100 MPs backing him. So it must be true.

He cut short a holiday to come back for the contest. It was the perfect opportunity to have revenge on Sunak and the Tories who'd taken him down. Only his failure to secure the necessary support would have stopped him from running.