Whos going down?

[Which Tyler]

Interesting version ofnthenword "proven" there.

[Scrumhead]

It’s not like it’s a long time since Saracens won the European Cup, so I think proven is overstating it.

That said, I agree that our club game needs to change to help the success of the England team and allow for more of a level playing field on squad quality and rotation than what currently exists.

[Peej]

It's been a while since Wasps and Leicester won, sure, but not that long since Sarries did. And the clubs have been there or there abouts in the quarters and semis.In 2016 there were three English clubs and one French in the semi finals, for example.

Lean years do not suggest the system is broken

[fivepointer]

Big result today -
Bristol (10) 35
Tries: Randall, C Piutau, Morahan, Pincus Cons: Madigan 2, Sheedy Pens: Madigan 2, Sheedy
Newcastle (20) 28
Tries: Goneva, Chick, Radwan Cons: Flood 2 Pens: Flood 3

Bristol now on 23 pts, 6 ahead of Falcons and Worcester.

[Scrumhead]

Yep. That gap is growing, although Newcastle have Quins at home next week so I dare say we’ll help them out with our obligatory away loss.

[Tigersman]

Honestly reckon it will be between Bristol and Worcester now.
Saying that next week
Sale v Saracens (Honestly see Sarries winning this comfortably maybe Sale TBP). 1-5
Worcester v Bath (Reckon Worcester will win depending on Bath's injuries) 4-1
Newcastle v Quins (Quins have a poor away record) 4-1
Exeter v Bristol (Exeter win) 5-0
Leicester v Gloucester (Hopefully Gloucester play like they did yesterday.... going to say Leicester win as it makes things more interesting) 4-1
Wasps v Saints (Honestly reckon Saints will win) 1-4

Would leave the table
1. Exeter 52
2. Sarries 51
3. Gloucester 33
4. Saints 30
5. Quins 29
6. Bath 28
7. Tigers 28
8. Sale 26
9. Wasps 26
10. Bristol 23
11. Worcester 21
12. Falcons 21

Scary stuff for coaches.

[Tigersman]

What is actually really odd
The distance between 2 and 3rd is the same as the distance between 3rd and 12th!!!!!

[fivepointer]

Think this could change weekly. There isnt one team that is out and out useless. Every team has enough quality to indicate they will stay up if they can string a few good performances together. On the other hand, its easy to see how a team might be sucked into trouble if results go against them.
I genuinely think its going to come down to injuries, luck and the ability to chisel out the odd BP.

[Stom]

Think this could change weekly. There isnt one team that is out and out useless. Every team has enough quality to indicate they will stay up if they can string a few good performances together. On the other hand, its easy to see how a team might be sucked into trouble if results go against them.
I genuinely think its going to come down to injuries, luck and the ability to chisel out the odd BP.

I'm sticking with: If Faf stays fit, one of Wuss and Briz go down. If Faf gets injured, Sale go down.

They're averaging 3.2 points a game with him and 1.5 without him this season.

[Scrumhead]

Bad weekend for Newcastle. Getting nothing while Worcester picked up a win was almost the worst case scenario (no BP for Worcester).

Given where they are, I think they should rest whoever they can for their remaining European games and concentrate on playing catch-up in the Premiership.

Perhaps the 6 Nations will be an opportunity to claw back some points while other teams are more disrupted by international call-ups, but Worcester and Bristol aren’t likely to lose too many players either.

[Tigersman]

Worcester could well lose
Weir
Te'o (Not that it matters....)
Adams
and maybe Hill and Singleton.

Bristol won't lose anyone.

Falcons could lose Wilson which whilst only one player is their big leader.

[Scrumhead]

I doubt Weir will get a recall and Singleton and Hill are definitely more in the maybe category than certainties.

As you said yourself, Te’o is more or less irrelevant anyway given how rarely he plays and while Adams is a key player who they’ll almost certainly lose, he’s not been anywhere near the form he was in last season or the season before.

Arguably, Worcester are better with Mills at 12 than Te’o anyway!

The key for Newcastle will be getting their injured players back. Witty and Welch we’re back yesterday but they’re still missing the likes of Wilson, Flood, Williams and Sinoti.

Come to think of it, the retirements of Vickers, Lawson and Hogg have been a bigger blow than expected. Clearly not stars, but very useful, experienced players who all made a difference.

[Tigersman]

I doubt Weir will get a recall and Singleton and Hill are definitely more in the maybe category than certainties.

As you said yourself, Te’o is more or less irrelevant anyway given how rarely he plays and while Adams is a key player who they’ll almost certainly lose, he’s not been anywhere near the form he was in last season or the season before.

Arguably, Worcester are better with Mills at 12 than Te’o anyway!

The key for Newcastle will be getting their injured players back. Witty and Welch we’re back yesterday but they’re still missing the likes of Wilson, Flood, Williams and Sinoti.

Come to think of it, the retirements of Vickers, Lawson and Hogg have been a bigger blow than expected. Clearly not stars, but very useful, experienced players who all made a difference.

Scotland's 10 are
Russell, Hastings and Jackson. Weir form has been better recently than Hastings and Jackson. Hastings especially has been poor the last 4 or so weeks a couple of bad european could see him loss a spot. weir was also called up to the AI squad so still in Townsend mind.

Latu was a massive loss on reflection.

[Puja]

Signing T2/3 players like Bettencourt and Mullen has not panned out for them. Richards has made very good business out of signing underperforming or underrated players in the past few years, but the likes of Cavubati, Mulipola, Swiel, etc has not had the impact of previous bargains hunts, for varying reasons.

Puja

[Scrumhead]

True. Most of their signings have spent more time injured than they have playing.

Bettencourt looks decent. Good enough to second choice behind Harris anyway.

[fivepointer]

Newcastle do have an extensive injury list. They've really struggled all season to get any continuity in their selection. Its a major factor.
Next 2 weeks in Europe they will simply put out reserves.
Their priority must be to pick up wins when the Prem returns on 15 February, though that wont be easy. They have Bath A, Exeter A, Worcester H, Wasps A and Sale H

[Tigersman]

Tigers could be missing
Kerr
Cole
Genge
Youngs
Ford
Tuilagi
May
Holmes
+ Injuries.....

6N's period will be very tough on us.

[Mellsblue]

Bettencourt is pretty highly rated. If I have the correct bloke, there was a bit of a battle between Fr and Esp for his age group nationality, and plenty of clubs after him when decided on France.

Beating Quins at home was one they would’ve been targeting for a win. Interesting article in the the times that Gustard analysed all his players’ performances away from home.....and J Chisholm was dropped.

[Stom]

Bettencourt is pretty highly rated. If I have the correct bloke, there was a bit of a battle between Fr and Esp for his age group nationality, and plenty of clubs after him when decided on France.

Beating Quins at home was one they would’ve been targeting for a win. Interesting article in the the times that Gustard analysed all his players’ performances away from home.....and J Chisholm was dropped.

Was he dropped? He was listed on the unavailable players list...

[BenHK]

Based on the remaining games, and home fixtures each of the bottom three have, I figure that Newcastle will finish up on 32, Worcester 33 and Bristol on 40. All in the laps of the gods mind you

Bristol:
Round Date Team (H) Team (A) Prediction Points
13 2/17/2019 Bristol Wasps Win 4
14 2/23/2019 Harlequins Bristol Lose 0
15 3/1/2019 Bristol Gloucester Win 4
16 3/9/2019 Northampton Bristol Lose 0
17 3/23/2019 Bristol Worcester Win 4
18 4/6/2019 Bath Bristol Lose 1
19 4/12/2019 Bristol Saracens Lose 1
20 4/26/2019 Leicester Bristol Lose 0
21 5/3/2019 Bristol Sale Lose 1
22 5/18/2019 Newcastle Bristol Lose 1
16

Newcastle:
Round Date Team (H) Team (A) Prediction Points
13 2/16/2019 Bath Newcastle Lose 0
14 2/23/2019 Exeter Newcastle Lose 0
15 3/3/2019 Newcastle Worcester Win 4
16 3/9/2019 Wasps Newcastle Lose 1
17 3/23/2019 Newcastle Sale Win 4
18 4/5/2019 Saracens Newcastle Lose 0
19 4/12/2019 Newcastle Leicester Lose 1
20 4/26/2019 Newcastle Northampton Lose 1
21 5/3/2019 Gloucester Newcastle Lose 0
22 5/18/2019 Newcastle Bristol Win 4
15

Worcester:
Round Date Team (H) Team (A) Prediction Points
13 2/16/2019 Harlequins Worcester Lose 0
14 2/24/2019 Worcester Leicester Lose 1
15 3/3/2019 Newcastle Worcester Lose 1
16 3/9/2019 Worcester Exeter Lose 0
17 3/23/2019 Bristol Worcester Lose 1
18 4/5/2019 Wasps Worcester Lose 0
19 4/12/2019 Worcester Sale Win 4
20 4/26/2019 Worcester Gloucester Win 4
21 5/3/2019 Northampton Worcester Lose 1
22 5/18/2019 Worcester Saracens Lose 0
12

[Puja]

Bettencourt is pretty highly rated. If I have the correct bloke, there was a bit of a battle between Fr and Esp for his age group nationality, and plenty of clubs after him when decided on France.

Not sure you do have the right bloke - isn't he a Portguese player?

Puja

[Mellsblue]

Bettencourt is pretty highly rated. If I have the correct bloke, there was a bit of a battle between Fr and Esp for his age group nationality, and plenty of clubs after him when decided on France.

Not sure you do have the right bloke - isn't he a Portguese player?

Puja

Ah ok. Swap Portugal for Esp.

[Mellsblue]

Bettencourt is pretty highly rated. If I have the correct bloke, there was a bit of a battle between Fr and Esp for his age group nationality, and plenty of clubs after him when decided on France.

Beating Quins at home was one they would’ve been targeting for a win. Interesting article in the the times that Gustard analysed all his players’ performances away from home.....and J Chisholm was dropped.

Was he dropped? He was listed on the unavailable players list...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/paul ... -g2qvsr3cd


‘The team selection for today’s game against Newcastle Falcons at Kingston Park was made after Gustard studied all the performance data and worked out which players were less effective for the team away from the Twickenham Stoop. James Chisholm and Cadan Murley were not considered as a result.’

[Tigersman]

Worcester v Saracens could be a great final game potentially.

Worcester could have everything to play for, Saracens not much to play for depending where they are in the table and Europe they might be focused elsewhere.

[padprop]

Bettencourt is pretty highly rated. If I have the correct bloke, there was a bit of a battle between Fr and Esp for his age group nationality, and plenty of clubs after him when decided on France.

Beating Quins at home was one they would’ve been targeting for a win. Interesting article in the the times that Gustard analysed all his players’ performances away from home.....and J Chisholm was dropped.

Was he dropped? He was listed on the unavailable players list...

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/paul ... -g2qvsr3cd


‘The team selection for today’s game against Newcastle Falcons at Kingston Park was made after Gustard studied all the performance data and worked out which players were less effective for the team away from the Twickenham Stoop. James Chisholm and Cadan Murley were not considered as a result.’

Whilst that sounds good in principle, hasn't Murley only played about 4 games? Not really alot of data to analyse.