RugbyRebels

We're at 98.5% counted, but the results probably won't change a huge deal.



It's a historic defeat for the National Party, their second worst result they've ever suffered.

This is also the 3rd biggest electoral victory for Labour, with the 2 biggest wins coming well before MMP.

Electorate changes

Auckland Central goes to the Greens, with Chlöe Swarbrick becoming the first Greens MP to take an electorate since the late Jeanette Fitzsimons took the Coromandel seat in 1999.

East Coast returns to Labour control.

Hamilton East and Hamilton West both return to Labour, after flipping to National in 2005 and 2008 respectively.

Hutt South returns to Labour after one parliamentary term in National hands.

Ilam flips to Labour, with voters rejecting National Party Deputy Leader and Campaign Manager Gerry Brownlee. It's interesting. An interesting series of facts.

Nelson returns to Labour after being held by National Party veteran Nick Smith since 1996.

New Plymouth returns to Labour for the first time since the 2005 election.

Northcote, a safe National seat, has flipped to Labour.

Otaki, held by National since 2008, returns to Labour.

Rangitata, a safe National seat, recently vacated by sex pest MP Andrew Falloon

Tukituki goes into Labour hands.

Upper Harbour, a relatively new electorate considered a National stronghold, has gone to Labour.

Whanganui was held by National since the 2005 election, and returns to Labour.

On the Maori roll, all but one seat is set to return to Labour, with the Waiariki electorate returning to Maori Party control.

Labour has also won the Party Vote in all but 3 electorates - those being Epsom, Tamaki and Taranaki

Ilam flips to Labour, with voters rejecting National Party Deputy Leader and Campaign Manager Gerry Brownlee. It's interesting. An interesting series of facts.

About fucking time. That thick wanker made a pigs arse of the earthquake recovery effort.

zer0 wrote:Seems they won't need the Greens, which is unfortunate and not really how MMP is supposed to work. But at least we'll now get to see how much of the general handbraking was Winnie and how much was Labour itself. I suspect a disappointingly large amount of the latter, unfortunately.

Definitely time to walk the walk.

We also await the special votes, which usually tends to favour Labour and the Greens, so expect it to be one final kick in the teeth for the right.

Just reward for fantastic management of the virus.

Johnson and Trump can see what they might have done for their own popularity if only they hadn't been such fuck-ups.

morepork wrote:Ilam flips to Labour, with voters rejecting National Party Deputy Leader and Campaign Manager Gerry Brownlee. It's interesting. An interesting series of facts.

About fucking time. That thick wanker made a pigs arse of the earthquake recovery effort.

At this stage, the following National MPs survive through their entitlement to 9 list seats in addition to their 26 electorate seats

Gerry Brownlee (2)
Paul Goldsmith (3)
Chris Bishop (7)
David Bennett (11)
Michael Woodhouse (12)
Nicola Willis (13)
Melissa Lee (16)
Nick Smith (18)
Maureen Pugh (19)


They join the following Electorate MPs
Todd Muller (Bay of Plenty)
Chris Luxon (Botany)
Scott Simpson (Coromandel)
Erica Stanford (East Coast Bays)
Penny Simmonds (Invercargill)
Stuart Smith (Kaikoura)
Chris Penk (Kaipara ki Mahurangi - a new electorate that encompasses the old Helensville one that Penk held previously)
Denise Lee (Maungakiekie)
Simon Watts (North Shore)
Matt King (Northland)
Simeon Brown (Pakuranga)
Judith Collins (Papakura)
Andrew Bayly (Port Waikato - a returned electorate that encompasses Franklin, Raglan and northern Waikato)
Ian McKelvie (Rangitikei)
Todd McClay (Rotorua)
Nicola Grigg (Selwyn)
Joseph Mooney (Southland - a new electorate that covers rural Southland like Gore and Mataura, and areas like Queenstown and Te Anau)
Simon O'Connor (Tamaki)
Barbara Kuriger (Taranaki-King Country)
Louise Upston (Taupo)
Simon Bridges (Tauranga)
Tim van de Molen (Waikato)
Matthew Doocey (Waimakariri)
Jacqui Dean (Waitaki)
Mark Mitchell (Whangaparoa - a new electorate that covers the Hibiscus Coast all the way to bits of Albany)
Shane Reti (Whangarei)

In the coming months or even weeks, I think we can expect a lot of bloodletting

Brownlee as Campaign Manager, will likely be bundled down the list, and out of Parliament.
Collins will likely be rolled - she's despised within her own party, and she'll be expected to carry the can for this

With the outcome of the special votes, Maureen Pugh and probably Nick Smith will also be gone.
Shane Reti is also vulnerable, having only just retained his electorate off of 162 votes, but the Nats will probably sacrifice someone who's more trouble than they're worth on the list to keep him.

cashead wrote:

morepork wrote:Ilam flips to Labour, with voters rejecting National Party Deputy Leader and Campaign Manager Gerry Brownlee. It's interesting. An interesting series of facts.

About fucking time. That thick wanker made a pigs arse of the earthquake recovery effort.

At this stage, the following National MPs survive through their entitlement to 9 list seats in addition to their 26 electorate seats

Gerry Brownlee (2)
Paul Goldsmith (3)
Chris Bishop (7)
David Bennett (11)
Michael Woodhouse (12)
Nicola Willis (13)
Melissa Lee (16)
Nick Smith (18)
Maureen Pugh (19)


They join the following Electorate MPs
Todd Muller (Bay of Plenty)
Chris Luxon (Botany)
Scott Simpson (Coromandel)
Erica Stanford (East Coast Bays)
Penny Simmonds (Invercargill)
Stuart Smith (Kaikoura)
Chris Penk (Kaipara ki Mahurangi - a new electorate that encompasses the old Helensville one that Penk held previously)
Denise Lee (Maungakiekie)
Simon Watts (North Shore)
Matt King (Northland)
Simeon Brown (Pakuranga)
Judith Collins (Papakura)
Andrew Bayly (Port Waikato - a returned electorate that encompasses Franklin, Raglan and northern Waikato)
Ian McKelvie (Rangitikei)
Todd McClay (Rotorua)
Nicola Grigg (Selwyn)
Joseph Mooney (Southland - a new electorate that covers rural Southland like Gore and Mataura, and areas like Queenstown and Te Anau)
Simon O'Connor (Tamaki)
Barbara Kuriger (Taranaki-King Country)
Louise Upston (Taupo)
Simon Bridges (Tauranga)
Tim van de Molen (Waikato)
Matthew Doocey (Waimakariri)
Jacqui Dean (Waitaki)
Mark Mitchell (Whangaparoa - a new electorate that covers the Hibiscus Coast all the way to bits of Albany)
Shane Reti (Whangarei)

In the coming months or even weeks, I think we can expect a lot of bloodletting

Brownlee as Campaign Manager, will likely be bundled down the list, and out of Parliament.
Collins will likely be rolled - she's despised within her own party, and she'll be expected to carry the can for this

With the outcome of the special votes, Maureen Pugh and probably Nick Smith will also be gone.
Shane Reti is also vulnerable, having only just retained his electorate off of 162 votes, but the Nats will probably sacrifice someone who's more trouble than they're worth on the list to keep him.

I am confused. What are special votes? How would Shane Reti be vulnerable - didn't he win a seat based upon people voting for their local MP?

Puja

Puja wrote:

cashead wrote:

morepork wrote:Ilam flips to Labour, with voters rejecting National Party Deputy Leader and Campaign Manager Gerry Brownlee. It's interesting. An interesting series of facts.

About fucking time. That thick wanker made a pigs arse of the earthquake recovery effort.

At this stage, the following National MPs survive through their entitlement to 9 list seats in addition to their 26 electorate seats

Gerry Brownlee (2)
Paul Goldsmith (3)
Chris Bishop (7)
David Bennett (11)
Michael Woodhouse (12)
Nicola Willis (13)
Melissa Lee (16)
Nick Smith (18)
Maureen Pugh (19)


They join the following Electorate MPs
Todd Muller (Bay of Plenty)
Chris Luxon (Botany)
Scott Simpson (Coromandel)
Erica Stanford (East Coast Bays)
Penny Simmonds (Invercargill)
Stuart Smith (Kaikoura)
Chris Penk (Kaipara ki Mahurangi - a new electorate that encompasses the old Helensville one that Penk held previously)
Denise Lee (Maungakiekie)
Simon Watts (North Shore)
Matt King (Northland)
Simeon Brown (Pakuranga)
Judith Collins (Papakura)
Andrew Bayly (Port Waikato - a returned electorate that encompasses Franklin, Raglan and northern Waikato)
Ian McKelvie (Rangitikei)
Todd McClay (Rotorua)
Nicola Grigg (Selwyn)
Joseph Mooney (Southland - a new electorate that covers rural Southland like Gore and Mataura, and areas like Queenstown and Te Anau)
Simon O'Connor (Tamaki)
Barbara Kuriger (Taranaki-King Country)
Louise Upston (Taupo)
Simon Bridges (Tauranga)
Tim van de Molen (Waikato)
Matthew Doocey (Waimakariri)
Jacqui Dean (Waitaki)
Mark Mitchell (Whangaparoa - a new electorate that covers the Hibiscus Coast all the way to bits of Albany)
Shane Reti (Whangarei)

In the coming months or even weeks, I think we can expect a lot of bloodletting

Brownlee as Campaign Manager, will likely be bundled down the list, and out of Parliament.
Collins will likely be rolled - she's despised within her own party, and she'll be expected to carry the can for this

With the outcome of the special votes, Maureen Pugh and probably Nick Smith will also be gone.
Shane Reti is also vulnerable, having only just retained his electorate off of 162 votes, but the Nats will probably sacrifice someone who's more trouble than they're worth on the list to keep him.

I am confused. What are special votes? How would Shane Reti be vulnerable - didn't he win a seat based upon people voting for their local MP?

Puja

Special votes are ones that aren't taken at a polling place, such as overseas votes, people who have to mail them in, prisoners on remand, or currently serving a <3-year sentence, or this year, anyone who enrolled after writ day, which was September 13.

They have historically favoured the left, and Labour and the Greens usually get a seat or two each at the expense of National.

Because these would include electorate votes, Reti, and Rawiri Waititi of the Waiariki electorate for that matter, are potentially vulnerable due to the slim margins of their wins.

cashead wrote:

Puja wrote:I am confused. What are special votes? How would Shane Reti be vulnerable - didn't he win a seat based upon people voting for their local MP?

Puja

Special votes are ones that aren't taken at a polling place, such as overseas votes, people who have to mail them in, prisoners on remand, or currently serving a <3-year sentence, or this year, anyone who enrolled after writ day, which was September 13.

They have historically favoured the left, and Labour and the Greens usually get a seat or two each at the expense of National.

Because these would include electorate votes, Reti, and Rawiri Waititi of the Waiariki electorate for that matter, are potentially vulnerable due to the slim margins of their wins.

Ah right, that makes sense. Thanks!

Puja

Thi is really something spectacular:



The anchor systematically crushed the spirits of that guy with a cheery smile on her face. That was flawless.

Puja

It's entertaining though Tova O'Brien -- the host -- is a serial peddler of misinformation and (attempted) whiperer upper of fear and hysteria.

At the very least, she ended up the face of a fear-mongering hysteria-peddling press that sought to undermine the government response for the purpose of dem preshus preshus clix.

It was hilarious seeing them called out in that al Jazeera article, where one of their own told them to eat a bowl of soggy fucks, and collectively get salty a.f. over it.

Meanwhile, Willie Jackson confirmed on the weekend that while they are no plans to enter into a coalition with the Maori Party, Labour are open to working alongside them in promoting Maori interests and negotiating Treaty settlements, including Ihumatao.

They have also confirmed they will be entering negotiations with the Greens, so hopefully they can reach an agreement they're both happy with. The government will be better off with having the Greens in amongst.

Farmers and Bidnesspeople (aka old white dudes) are having a good old whinge about the possibility of the Greens getting in government. Employment relations and de environment are two areas NZ needs to get into the 21st century on.