Minibudget

[Donny osmond]

How are any of you following all this and not just wanting to blow your fucking heads off? I can only manage about 3 minutes of reading ‘the news’ before it all seems completely pointless.

Is any of this behaviour really likely to lead to significant change? Every leader becomes better in hindsight once we see how awful the next one is, and people keep acting like we’ve finally hit the tipping point where things will have to change for the better.

I'm not gonna lie, the inside of my head is significantly less flip than my online self. Frankly, I find being sardonic online and arguing with strangers to be a major part of keeping me sane. That and polls showing Labour having a 17 point lead, even with the structural disadvantages of Tory media and the safety-first approach of Starmer - gives me faith that I'm not alone (although the 28% still going Conservative at this point are baffling. What on earth would it take at this point?!).

Puja

Maybe it's because I don't live in the UK.
Maybe it's because the government over here has done so much that I'm numbed to it.
Maybe it's because I'm just laughing at what's left to come.
Maybe it's because I have a belief that by showing the Tory party for what they truly are, we could get rid of them for a generation, and this is worth that.

But I'm quite blase about the pretty terrible situation in the UK.

My wife asked me about the state of Europe today: is it just the US who are doing well and Europe are doing crap?

No dear. It's Hungary and the UK that are doing crap. Europe is fine. We've got something in common: corrupt, useless governments only out to line their own pockets.

Europe is very much not "fine". The UK might be proudly leading the way down the swanny, but with the continued rise of the far right, economic and environmental catastrophe happening in real time, not least in Germany the biggest and most important part of Europe, and a war on our borders, Europe is in the edge of a precipice. "Fine" is a long way away.

[Which Tyler]

Europe is very much not "fine". The UK might be proudly leading the way down the swanny, but with the continued rise of the far right, economic and environmental catastrophe happening in real time, not least in Germany the biggest and most important part of Europe, and a war on our borders, Europe is in the edge of a precipice. "Fine" is a long way away.

As shown by recent elections in Sweden and Italy

France managed to steer clear, but only just

[Stom]

I'm not gonna lie, the inside of my head is significantly less flip than my online self. Frankly, I find being sardonic online and arguing with strangers to be a major part of keeping me sane. That and polls showing Labour having a 17 point lead, even with the structural disadvantages of Tory media and the safety-first approach of Starmer - gives me faith that I'm not alone (although the 28% still going Conservative at this point are baffling. What on earth would it take at this point?!).

Puja

Maybe it's because I don't live in the UK.
Maybe it's because the government over here has done so much that I'm numbed to it.
Maybe it's because I'm just laughing at what's left to come.
Maybe it's because I have a belief that by showing the Tory party for what they truly are, we could get rid of them for a generation, and this is worth that.

But I'm quite blase about the pretty terrible situation in the UK.

My wife asked me about the state of Europe today: is it just the US who are doing well and Europe are doing crap?

No dear. It's Hungary and the UK that are doing crap. Europe is fine. We've got something in common: corrupt, useless governments only out to line their own pockets.

Europe is very much not "fine". The UK might be proudly leading the way down the swanny, but with the continued rise of the far right, economic and environmental catastrophe happening in real time, not least in Germany the biggest and most important part of Europe, and a war on our borders, Europe is in the edge of a precipice. "Fine" is a long way away.

Economically, cost of living crisis, and the value of the currency. It's not great, but compared to here and the UK, it's most definitely fine.

And it wouldn't be an economic catastrophe if we didn't have neo-capitalism. As shown by the massive profits made by the oil and wheat companies. As people are made aware of that, it could lead to sentiment change and a big positive movement away from this terrible economic system.

[Donny osmond]

"
And it wouldn't be an economic catastrophe if we didn't have neo-capitalism. As shown by the massive profits made by the oil and wheat companies. As people are made aware of that, it could lead to sentiment change "

I agree up to a point about the causes, but leading to sentiment change? Oh please, that's been the hope for decades and it's as far away as ever. If it weren't populist nationalists rising to power simply by blaming 'them' wouldn't be rising to power. Time to get real.

[Stom]

"
And it wouldn't be an economic catastrophe if we didn't have neo-capitalism. As shown by the massive profits made by the oil and wheat companies. As people are made aware of that, it could lead to sentiment change "

I agree up to a point about the causes, but leading to sentiment change? Oh please, that's been the hope for decades and it's as far away as ever. If it weren't populist nationalists rising to power simply by blaming 'them' wouldn't be rising to power. Time to get real.

Really? You don't see sentiment change? Press coverage and public opinion on windfall taxes is very different to how it's ever been. And that's just the start. As people are squeezed, especially the youth, who have not previously mobilised, they're going to look to latch onto something that can actually make their lives better.

I would say we are at a bit of a crossroads. People are starting to take notice.

Or, everything is a play, and we should just ignore it

[Son of Mathonwy]

If you think things are bad here, then A] you're dead right, and B] things are going to be far, far worse in Brazil in approximately 1 week's time

Yeah, I saw ths John Oliver thing on that this week. I don't see any way that's not ending in military dictatorship.

Puja

Italy ain't looking too rosy either.

[Son of Mathonwy]

How are any of you following all this and not just wanting to blow your fucking heads off? I can only manage about 3 minutes of reading ‘the news’ before it all seems completely pointless.

Is any of this behaviour really likely to lead to significant change? Every leader becomes better in hindsight once we see how awful the next one is, and people keep acting like we’ve finally hit the tipping point where things will have to change for the better.

I'm not gonna lie, the inside of my head is significantly less flip than my online self. Frankly, I find being sardonic online and arguing with strangers to be a major part of keeping me sane. That and polls showing Labour having a 17 point lead, even with the structural disadvantages of Tory media and the safety-first approach of Starmer - gives me faith that I'm not alone (although the 28% still going Conservative at this point are baffling. What on earth would it take at this point?!).

Puja

If you don’t laugh then you would cry. It’s desperate and so many people are at a cliff edge with little hope of improvement anytime soon. Some of this isn’t the governments fault but much is and they are definitely making a bad situation worse.

As for the 28%. They are the ones who now have more money in their pockets and don’t give a shit about others.

The 28% also contains those who believe the Tory press and think BBC and ITV news are a bunch of communists. 'Fury at city traders selling off the Pound' etc.

[Sandydragon]

If you think things are bad here, then A] you're dead right, and B] things are going to be far, far worse in Brazil in approximately 1 week's time

Yeah, I saw ths John Oliver thing on that this week. I don't see any way that's not ending in military dictatorship.

Puja

Italy ain't looking too rosy either.

Yeah. Feels like consensus is long gone and its all about drawing up battle lines. The rise of the far right or left is no cause for celebration.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Yeah, I saw ths John Oliver thing on that this week. I don't see any way that's not ending in military dictatorship.

Puja

Italy ain't looking too rosy either.

Yeah. Feels like consensus is long gone and its all about drawing up battle lines. The rise of the far right or left is no cause for celebration.

It seems so easy for the far right to present themselves as moderate or at least acceptable. They just need the media to promote them to a relatively ignorant population. With Berlusconi's media it's too easy. In the UK, most of the media will back the Tories no matter how far right they go.

[Puja]

If you think things are bad here, then A] you're dead right, and B] things are going to be far, far worse in Brazil in approximately 1 week's time

Yeah, I saw ths John Oliver thing on that this week. I don't see any way that's not ending in military dictatorship.

Puja

Italy ain't looking too rosy either.

At least Italy have voted for their fascist. Bolsonaro is going to lose the election, but has already been following the Trump playbook of claiming massive fraud before the election and whipping his supporters up to stop the steal, with the difference that Bolsonaro has the full support and respect of the military so he's likely to make a coup stick.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

Italy ain't looking too rosy either.

Yeah. Feels like consensus is long gone and its all about drawing up battle lines. The rise of the far right or left is no cause for celebration.

It seems so easy for the far right to present themselves as moderate or at least acceptable. They just need the media to promote them to a relatively ignorant population. With Berlusconi's media it's too easy. In the UK, most of the media will back the Tories no matter how far right they go.

The Times is less likely to unwaveringly back the Tories at the moment. The Torygraph, Mail and Express will always support them; they are all basically UKIP papers in blue rather than purple colours.

[Sandydragon]

Yeah, I saw ths John Oliver thing on that this week. I don't see any way that's not ending in military dictatorship.

Puja

Italy ain't looking too rosy either.

At least Italy have voted for their fascist. Bolsonaro is going to lose the election, but has already been following the Trump playbook of claiming massive fraud before the election and whipping his supporters up to stop the steal, with the difference that Bolsonaro has the full support and respect of the military so he's likely to make a coup stick.

Puja

Yep. I can't see him quietly handing over power and I don't think the institutions in Brazil will be that successful in preventing him from ordering a military takeover.

[Which Tyler]

At least Italy have voted for their fascist. Bolsonaro is going to lose the election, but has already been following the Trump playbook of claiming massive fraud before the election and whipping his supporters up to stop the steal, with the difference that Bolsonaro has the full support and respect of the military so he's likely to make a coup stick.

Exactly - I've not seen the John Oliver one you mentioned; but Italy and Sweden have just voted in their fascist, through free and fair elections (well, -ish).

Bolsanaro is about to lose his election; he's already set up claims that he CAN only lose by fraud, he has the army in his pocket, and he's been arming his followers, and has basically promised a coup if the election disagrees with him - inspired by, but learned from, Trump's attempted coup - and all set up well in advance.
Brazil is also still pretty new to this "democracy" lark; only getting rid of their military junta in the mid-80s

[Stom]

At least Italy have voted for their fascist. Bolsonaro is going to lose the election, but has already been following the Trump playbook of claiming massive fraud before the election and whipping his supporters up to stop the steal, with the difference that Bolsonaro has the full support and respect of the military so he's likely to make a coup stick.

Exactly - I've not seen the John Oliver one you mentioned; but Italy and Sweden have just voted in their fascist, through free and fair elections (well, -ish).

Bolsanaro is about to lose his election; he's already set up claims that he CAN only lose by fraud, he has the army in his pocket, and he's been arming his followers, and has basically promised a coup if the election disagrees with him - inspired by, but learned from, Trump's attempted coup - and all set up well in advance.
Brazil is also still pretty new to this "democracy" lark; only getting rid of their military junta in the mid-80s

After working for a Swedish company, I can't say I'm surprised...

[Son of Mathonwy]

You gotta feel for those 81,000 Tory members who voted Truss in. On Friday they must have thought: at last, a real Tory budget. And then the pound goes to shit. Their heroes in the City took their bribes and then stuck the knife in.

I wonder if any of them think they may have made a mistake, and like Kwarteng, their understanding of the economics isn't quite as sound as they had thought. Not that such a thought will have pierced the unbreakable, Eton-forged shell protecting his ego.

[Sandydragon]

You gotta feel for those 81,000 Tory members who voted Truss in. On Friday they must have thought: at last, a real Tory budget. And then the pound goes to shit. Their heroes in the City have took their bribes and then stuck the knife in.

I wonder if any of them think they may have made a mistake, and like Kwarteng, their understanding of the economics isn't quite as sound as they had thought. Not that such a thought will have pierced the unbreakable, Eton-forged shell protecting his ego.

Many of them will be mortgage free and have savings at this point so higher interest rates isnt something they will object to. But taking a kicking off the markets won't go down well.

[Donny osmond]

"
And it wouldn't be an economic catastrophe if we didn't have neo-capitalism. As shown by the massive profits made by the oil and wheat companies. As people are made aware of that, it could lead to sentiment change "

I agree up to a point about the causes, but leading to sentiment change? Oh please, that's been the hope for decades and it's as far away as ever. If it weren't populist nationalists rising to power simply by blaming 'them' wouldn't be rising to power. Time to get real.

Really? You don't see sentiment change? Press coverage and public opinion on windfall taxes is very different to how it's ever been. And that's just the start. As people are squeezed, especially the youth, who have not previously mobilised, they're going to look to latch onto something that can actually make their lives better.

I would say we are at a bit of a crossroads. People are starting to take notice.

Or, everything is a play, and we should just ignore it

I don't see meaningful sentiment change. The road to hell is paved with good intentions and we - Europe - are firmly on that road. People will ultimately vote for themselves rather than the greater good. If there were meaningful levels of sentiment change, the populist nationalists wouldn't be getting voted into power, or gaining more and more votes across the continent.

[Son of Mathonwy]

You gotta feel for those 81,000 Tory members who voted Truss in. On Friday they must have thought: at last, a real Tory budget. And then the pound goes to shit. Their heroes in the City took their bribes and then stuck the knife in.

I wonder if any of them think they may have made a mistake, and like Kwarteng, their understanding of the economics isn't quite as sound as they had thought. Not that such a thought will have pierced the unbreakable, Eton-forged shell protecting his ego.

Many of them will be mortgage free and have savings at this point so higher interest rates isnt something they will object to. But taking a kicking off the markets won't go down well.

And at least some of them will be unimpressed with the chaotic handling of the economy. Unless they blame that all on those ungrateful traders.

[Stom]

"
And it wouldn't be an economic catastrophe if we didn't have neo-capitalism. As shown by the massive profits made by the oil and wheat companies. As people are made aware of that, it could lead to sentiment change "

I agree up to a point about the causes, but leading to sentiment change? Oh please, that's been the hope for decades and it's as far away as ever. If it weren't populist nationalists rising to power simply by blaming 'them' wouldn't be rising to power. Time to get real.

Really? You don't see sentiment change? Press coverage and public opinion on windfall taxes is very different to how it's ever been. And that's just the start. As people are squeezed, especially the youth, who have not previously mobilised, they're going to look to latch onto something that can actually make their lives better.

I would say we are at a bit of a crossroads. People are starting to take notice.

Or, everything is a play, and we should just ignore it

I don't see meaningful sentiment change. The road to hell is paved with good intentions and we - Europe - are firmly on that road. People will ultimately vote for themselves rather than the greater good. If there were meaningful levels of sentiment change, the populist nationalists wouldn't be getting voted into power, or gaining more and more votes across the continent.

I find it's best not to see it all as doom and gloom, as that can have a serious impact on mental health...

Instead, I like to see the positives. We have a real chance to shape the future here. And I think we can do it. We're being shown the absolute worst of society. People are seeing that. Those I see are being turned off by it. And it cannot last.

[Which Tyler]

N=1

But about the only thing my patients are talking about this week is how they need to kick the tories out - this is Tewkesbury (58.4% tory 2019), and the more affluent residents who are happy to pay for healthcare (chiropractor) rather than wait for a physio.

[morepork]

In the immortal words of Public Enemy:

"Can't truss it"

[Which Tyler]

Tewkesbury would still be blue

[morepork]

The local radio interviews....sweet mother of fuck.

[Zhivago]

Can't be long now until another vote of no confidence surely

[Puja]

The local radio interviews....sweet mother of fuck.

Massive, massive tactical error from Team Truss. Had she done one national program, something fluffy like This Morning, then it would probably have been rough, but they could've controlled the questions, threatened loss of future access if they got too rough, got it over and done with in 15 minutes. Doing a round of local radio meant that a) she was facing a bunch of interviewers who didn't give a fuck about losing access cause they were never going to get a chance like this again (and I'd imagine a few of them are now fielding job offers or at least using the audio to try and get a better job), b) had over an hour of questions which are now all online, and c) gave each later interviewer the chance to listen to her early evasions and tailor their approach to absolutely murder her in a way she didn't have a response to.

It's like her advisers thought this was the 1990s and local radio interviews would be entirely discrete because it only got heard in that area and so she would be doing the same interview over and over.

Puja