RugbyRebels

Banquo wrote:

Digby wrote:

Banquo wrote:McDonnell wants to form a coalition government

Does he say wants? Though no matter what he wants close friends may persuade him it's in the best interests of the country for him to put aside what he wants and take any opportunity to serve.

just heard him say it

And how does one know a politician is lying?

If John is saying that is it just to put pressure on the Tories to move quickly in all this? No one else is going to seriously discuss anything surely until the Tories have a go at putting a government together

Big D wrote:Once again regardless of content of her campaign Ruth Davidson has had a positive night in Scotland. Tory HQ might keep an eye on that one and get her involved. She seems to know how to strike a chord with the electorate in Scotland.

Completely agree. Davidson and BoJo to feature large in the next campaign as the Tories go for popularity.

Any thoughts on what position the DUP will want to take re brexit? The "will of the people" in NI was 56% in favour of remain.

The lib dems were accused of jot respecting "the will of the people" for their 2nd referendum policy. Would the same charge be levelled in NI if the DUP support the Tories?

Big D wrote:Once again regardless of content of her campaign Ruth Davidson has had a positive night in Scotland. Tory HQ might keep an eye on that one and get her involved. She seems to know how to strike a chord with the electorate in Scotland.

Yep. If it wasn't for her May would be in even deep s**t.

Stom wrote:

Banquo wrote:McDonnell wants to form a coalition government

Did he not say Minority Government? With policy by policy support.

Could we have competing Queen's Speeches?

I don't think we will.

Anyone can try and form a government, of course when one party has a majority its basically a given. There is nothing to stop Labour having a go at something, but the mathematical reality is that the Tories, with DUP support, could scupper them at any moment.

I'm very surprised they are trying this on, unless they don't expect to get anywhere.

canta_brian wrote:Any thoughts on what position the DUP will want to take re brexit? The "will of the people" in NI was 56% in favour of remain.

The lib dems were accused of jot respecting "the will of the people" for their 2nd referendum policy. Would the same charge be levelled in NI if the DUP support the Tories?

Most likely hard brexit. They tend to be comparable to the right wing of the tory party.

Two things:

1) For Labour to have done this well, after the press they have had and the in-fighting and bickering that has dogged them for ages...it's incredible, really. And they reached voters. Turnout was high, turnout amongst the young was high, and there were some very marginals that could have gone the other way.

No party has the strength to get done what they want, and the only way we could have a government who can pass even half of their plans is with a Tory DUP coalition...which would be a disaster for the Tories and, maybe Eugene could shed some light on this, maybe for the DUP, too, in the long run.

I think there's a good chance we could be continuing our yearly poll cycle. Sigh.

2) The Brexit negotiator from the EU has said that we can take our time, so long as we stick to the 2 years. So that paves the way for Labour to challenge again and again. For the Lib Dems to challenge again and again. For the SNP to challenge again and again. And considering the deep divisions within the Tories, the likelihood of any vote in Parliament actually passing is...slim.

Oh, and btw, does anyone else think we could see the end of Farron? He only just held onto his seat, and he's pretty repulsive. Perhaps Vince will step up as party leader now he's back in power. Highest turnout, we got: 80%, and over half voted for Vince.

Sandydragon wrote:

canta_brian wrote:Any thoughts on what position the DUP will want to take re brexit? The "will of the people" in NI was 56% in favour of remain.

The lib dems were accused of jot respecting "the will of the people" for their 2nd referendum policy. Would the same charge be levelled in NI if the DUP support the Tories?

Most likely hard brexit. They tend to be comparable to the right wing of the tory party.

And worse is some ways. Gay marriage, abortion rights etc etc

Sandydragon wrote:

Big D wrote:Once again regardless of content of her campaign Ruth Davidson has had a positive night in Scotland. Tory HQ might keep an eye on that one and get her involved. She seems to know how to strike a chord with the electorate in Scotland.

Completely agree. Davidson and BoJo to feature large in the next campaign as the Tories go for popularity.

Amber Rudd hung onto her seat, she could be a contender. She would be far more likely to get elected than BoJo, but if she's clever she'll bide her time, as the Tories will not win the next election.

Sandydragon wrote:

canta_brian wrote:Any thoughts on what position the DUP will want to take re brexit? The "will of the people" in NI was 56% in favour of remain.

The lib dems were accused of jot respecting "the will of the people" for their 2nd referendum policy. Would the same charge be levelled in NI if the DUP support the Tories?

Most likely hard brexit. They tend to be comparable to the right wing of the tory party.

I believe they will be "soft Brexit" types. NI voted to remain (ok the country didn't get a vote but you know what I mean) and the DUP need to play it carefully considering there will likely be another Stormont election required.

I guess the problem is, what is the value of 10 DUP seats to the Conservatives? The discussions around that will be interesting. The DUP have some "interesting" views on things like same sex marriage etc which would need to be handled by the Tory PR machine (they should easily manage that but nothing is a given with them).

Sandydragon wrote:

Stom wrote:

Banquo wrote:McDonnell wants to form a coalition government

Did he not say Minority Government? With policy by policy support.

Could we have competing Queen's Speeches?

I don't think we will.

Anyone can try and form a government, of course when one party has a majority its basically a given. There is nothing to stop Labour having a go at something, but the mathematical reality is that the Tories, with DUP support, could scupper them at any moment.

I'm very surprised they are trying this on, unless they don't expect to get anywhere.

I wouldn't be sure. The Tories have constantly accused Labour of infighting, but the Tories are the biggest party of infighting: that was May's entire reason for calling the election in the first place! We could see some high levels of dissension...

A fun fact: the UK Cabinet Manual on hung parliaments, and minority or coalition governments is based on New Zealand's.

Big D wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

canta_brian wrote:Any thoughts on what position the DUP will want to take re brexit? The "will of the people" in NI was 56% in favour of remain.

The lib dems were accused of jot respecting "the will of the people" for their 2nd referendum policy. Would the same charge be levelled in NI if the DUP support the Tories?

Most likely hard brexit. They tend to be comparable to the right wing of the tory party.

I believe they will be "soft Brexit" types. NI voted to remain (ok the country didn't get a vote but you know what I mean) and the DUP need to play it carefully considering there will likely be another Stormont election required.

I guess the problem is, what is the value of 10 DUP seats to the Conservatives? The discussions around that will be interesting. The DUP have some "interesting" views on things like same sex marriage etc which would need to be handled by the Tory PR machine (they should easily manage that but nothing is a given with them).

No chance, they're more like UKIP than soft Tories...

Stom wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Big D wrote:Once again regardless of content of her campaign Ruth Davidson has had a positive night in Scotland. Tory HQ might keep an eye on that one and get her involved. She seems to know how to strike a chord with the electorate in Scotland.

Completely agree. Davidson and BoJo to feature large in the next campaign as the Tories go for popularity.

Amber Rudd hung onto her seat, she could be a contender. She would be far more likely to get elected than BoJo, but if she's clever she'll bide her time, as the Tories will not win the next election.

I think RD would wait, she'll want a proper crack at the SNP at the next Scottish election and I reckon we'll see another GE before 2021. No idea about Amber Rudd but she only barely kept her seat.

Stom wrote:

Banquo wrote:McDonnell wants to form a coalition government

Did he not say Minority Government? With policy by policy support.

Could we have competing Queen's Speeches?

no, May has first dibs

Digby wrote:

Banquo wrote:

Digby wrote:
Does he say wants? Though no matter what he wants close friends may persuade him it's in the best interests of the country for him to put aside what he wants and take any opportunity to serve.

just heard him say it

And how does one know a politician is lying?

If John is saying that is it just to put pressure on the Tories to move quickly in all this? No one else is going to seriously discuss anything surely until the Tories have a go at putting a government together

the pedants continue to revolt

Stom wrote:Two things:

1) For Labour to have done this well, after the press they have had and the in-fighting and bickering that has dogged them for ages...it's incredible, really. And they reached voters. Turnout was high, turnout amongst the young was high, and there were some very marginals that could have gone the other way.

No party has the strength to get done what they want, and the only way we could have a government who can pass even half of their plans is with a Tory DUP coalition...which would be a disaster for the Tories and, maybe Eugene could shed some light on this, maybe for the DUP, too, in the long run.

I think there's a good chance we could be continuing our yearly poll cycle. Sigh.

2) The Brexit negotiator from the EU has said that we can take our time, so long as we stick to the 2 years. So that paves the way for Labour to challenge again and again. For the Lib Dems to challenge again and again. For the SNP to challenge again and again. And considering the deep divisions within the Tories, the likelihood of any vote in Parliament actually passing is...slim.

Oh, and btw, does anyone else think we could see the end of Farron? He only just held onto his seat, and he's pretty repulsive. Perhaps Vince will step up as party leader now he's back in power. Highest turnout, we got: 80%, and over half voted for Vince.

Yep, Labour have done well. The two campaigns were polls apart in quality. Corbyn, for the negatives I see in him, is a good and seasoned campaigner. Even more so when playing the underdog.

The next few months will be chaos. If it weren't for Brexit you'd assume there would be another GE in the summer but I just can't see that happening. It's an absolute shambles.

Not sure about Farron. Nice chap, other than his religion driven views on homosexuality, but he's no leader. To be honest, I'm not its that relevant beyond the Lib Dem party themselves.

Stom wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Stom wrote:
Did he not say Minority Government? With policy by policy support.

Could we have competing Queen's Speeches?

I don't think we will.

Anyone can try and form a government, of course when one party has a majority its basically a given. There is nothing to stop Labour having a go at something, but the mathematical reality is that the Tories, with DUP support, could scupper them at any moment.

I'm very surprised they are trying this on, unless they don't expect to get anywhere.

I wouldn't be sure. The Tories have constantly accused Labour of infighting, but the Tories are the biggest party of infighting: that was May's entire reason for calling the election in the first place! We could see some high levels of dissension...

How would Corbyn keep the left and right of his own party happy before setting off to secure Welsh, Scottish, Green and Lib Dem votes?

I don't know we've ever had such an election of losers, May obviously the biggest, but Corbyn lost a 3rd election in a row for Labour, the Lib Dems lost a share of the vote, SNP lost seats, UKIP were annihilated, in a zero sum game it's rather impressive in a way to have them all look such losers, welcome to Brexit Britain!

Digby wrote:

Stom wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:
I don't think we will.

Anyone can try and form a government, of course when one party has a majority its basically a given. There is nothing to stop Labour having a go at something, but the mathematical reality is that the Tories, with DUP support, could scupper them at any moment.

I'm very surprised they are trying this on, unless they don't expect to get anywhere.

I wouldn't be sure. The Tories have constantly accused Labour of infighting, but the Tories are the biggest party of infighting: that was May's entire reason for calling the election in the first place! We could see some high levels of dissension...

How would Corbyn keep the left and right of his own party happy before setting off to secure Welsh, Scottish, Green and Lib Dem votes?

I don't know we've ever had such an election of losers, May obviously the biggest, but Corbyn lost a 3rd election in a row for Labour, the Lib Dems lost a share of the vote, SNP lost seats, UKIP were annihilated, in a zero sum game it's rather impressive in a way to have them all look such losers, welcome to Brexit Britain!

Corbyn's record doesn't inspire loyalty amongst his own MPs. Keeping together a rainbow coalition/ progressive alliance will be hugely difficult in normal times - with Brexit calling I think its too much to ask for any leader. Even if they do collect together all of their mutual 'friends' in the commons, they still don't have a majority. The Tories might keep them in power to deflect the shit, but I can't see that lasting too long.

Stom wrote:

Big D wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:
Most likely hard brexit. They tend to be comparable to the right wing of the tory party.

I believe they will be "soft Brexit" types. NI voted to remain (ok the country didn't get a vote but you know what I mean) and the DUP need to play it carefully considering there will likely be another Stormont election required.

I guess the problem is, what is the value of 10 DUP seats to the Conservatives? The discussions around that will be interesting. The DUP have some "interesting" views on things like same sex marriage etc which would need to be handled by the Tory PR machine (they should easily manage that but nothing is a given with them).

No chance, they're more like UKIP than soft Tories...

Their leader has already said they don't want a hard Brexit.

Corbyn's left wing agenda would have very little chance of getting through parliament. Ignoring the Lords and any delaying tactics there. Many Labour MPs don't agree with the full range of Corbyn's policies. I'm sure they will think long and hard about rebelling and what loyalty they now owe Corbyn now - but given his track record of rebelling, I don't think he can expect too much loyalty on some of the more left elements of his manifesto.

The Liberals might not support the wilder elements such as nationalisation.

The tories won't vote for it either.

SO after a short period of time, Labour will not be able to get any policies through. Corbyn will have to go back to the country to get a mandate of his own. Another election. Maybe momentum (no pun) is with him, but with competent leadership and a better campaign thats a risk as well.

Interesting times.

Oh for Cameron and Clegg

Stom wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Big D wrote:Once again regardless of content of her campaign Ruth Davidson has had a positive night in Scotland. Tory HQ might keep an eye on that one and get her involved. She seems to know how to strike a chord with the electorate in Scotland.

Completely agree. Davidson and BoJo to feature large in the next campaign as the Tories go for popularity.

Amber Rudd hung onto her seat, she could be a contender. She would be far more likely to get elected than BoJo, but if she's clever she'll bide her time, as the Tories will not win the next election.

How do recounts work?

Amber, you seem to have lost.
Recount

Amber you seem to have lost.
Recount

Amber we have found 400(!!!) odd votes. Now you have won.
That's that then. Count over.

Mellsblue wrote: polls apart in quality.

good work

canta_brian wrote:

Stom wrote:

Sandydragon wrote: Completely agree. Davidson and BoJo to feature large in the next campaign as the Tories go for popularity.

Amber Rudd hung onto her seat, she could be a contender. She would be far more likely to get elected than BoJo, but if she's clever she'll bide her time, as the Tories will not win the next election.

How do recounts work?

Amber, you seem to have lost.
Recount

Amber you seem to have lost.
Recount

Amber we have found 400(!!!) odd votes. Now you have won.
That's that then. Count over.

electoral commission need to overhaul our system; my son could have had three votes and no-one would have been any the wiser.