RugbyRebels

Sandydragon wrote:Might also make Putin realise that its time to negotiate to save something. Or it could provide him still further.

Kherson will be hard for the Ukrainians. Fighting in urbanised areas favours the defenders and unlike the Russians, they don't have the tactic to obliterate it with artillery fire then mop up the rubble.

No, but they do have partisans.

Zhivago wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:Might also make Putin realise that its time to negotiate to save something. Or it could provide him still further.

Kherson will be hard for the Ukrainians. Fighting in urbanised areas favours the defenders and unlike the Russians, they don't have the tactic to obliterate it with artillery fire then mop up the rubble.

No, but they do have partisans.

Lightly armed troops harassing supply lines is fair enough but to take and hold a city you want lots of infantry. And it’s shit.

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:Might also make Putin realise that its time to negotiate to save something. Or it could provide him still further.

Kherson will be hard for the Ukrainians. Fighting in urbanised areas favours the defenders and unlike the Russians, they don't have the tactic to obliterate it with artillery fire then mop up the rubble.

No, but they do have partisans.

Lightly armed troops harassing supply lines is fair enough but to take and hold a city you want lots of infantry. And it’s shit.

Ukraine isn't lacking infantry though. They've mobilised a million men. They're lacking arty, but not infantry.

Zhivago wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:
No, but they do have partisans.

Lightly armed troops harassing supply lines is fair enough but to take and hold a city you want lots of infantry. And it’s shit.

Ukraine isn't lacking infantry though. They've mobilised a million men. They're lacking arty, but not infantry.

Hopefully they have been trained well because urban warfare isn’t a place to learn on the job. And artillery isn’t that helpful when it’s your own city.

Hopefully the Russians will be demoralised and won’t try to ape Stalingrad levels of resilience

Sandydragon wrote:Hopefully the Russians will be demoralised and won’t try to ape Stalingrad levels of resilience

That's gotta be the hope, hasn't it? The Russian conscripts know full well at this point that they're not liberators to the people of Kherson and the antipathy they face will only grow as the Ukranians get closer. Couple that with the bridges at their backs being regularly shot out and there's hopefully going to be a fair few who will be thinking about being the ones who get out while the getting's good, instead of being the ones trying to cross the river under heavy fire. Only takes a few to crumble for it to turn into a rout.

Let's hope.

Puja

There is a video of a Russian soldier castrating a Ukrainian soldier alive (apparently, no way will I look for this one). Just another example of the barbarism the Ukrainians are facing.

How long before Germany cave?

Banquo wrote:How long before Germany cave?

To be fair I’m surprised they haven’t already. The change in Italian government is also likely to open up some gaps in European solidarity.

Sandydragon wrote:

Banquo wrote:How long before Germany cave?

To be fair I’m surprised they haven’t already. The change in Italian government is also likely to open up some gaps in European solidarity.

Yup. TBH the solidarity has been pretty impressive- suspect Putin was thinking we'd crack earlier- but it looks like they are prepared for a long game.

Banquo wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Banquo wrote:How long before Germany cave?

To be fair I’m surprised they haven’t already. The change in Italian government is also likely to open up some gaps in European solidarity.

Yup. TBH the solidarity has been pretty impressive- suspect Putin was thinking we'd crack earlier- but it looks like they are prepared for a long game.

Some of the noises coming from senior republicans in the US are a bit worrying. If the US decides not to continue its support then Ukraine is screwed. I worry that republicans will vote against anything Biden proposes just in order to oppose it.

Sandydragon wrote:

Banquo wrote:

Sandydragon wrote: To be fair I’m surprised they haven’t already. The change in Italian government is also likely to open up some gaps in European solidarity.

Yup. TBH the solidarity has been pretty impressive- suspect Putin was thinking we'd crack earlier- but it looks like they are prepared for a long game.

Some of the noises coming from senior republicans in the US are a bit worrying. If the US decides not to continue its support then Ukraine is screwed. I worry that republicans will vote against anything Biden proposes just in order to oppose it.

unfortunately the (additional) privations of the Russian people (such as they are outside the major conurbations) matter the square root of eff all to Putin- he's not going to back down, but imo will string this out with relatively minimal force from them. Perhaps the answer is obviously yes,and I'm a bit slow, but maybe this whole thing was gamed as a big disruptor to the western economies when they were already on the covid ropes.

Banquo wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Banquo wrote: Yup. TBH the solidarity has been pretty impressive- suspect Putin was thinking we'd crack earlier- but it looks like they are prepared for a long game.

Some of the noises coming from senior republicans in the US are a bit worrying. If the US decides not to continue its support then Ukraine is screwed. I worry that republicans will vote against anything Biden proposes just in order to oppose it.

unfortunately the (additional) privations of the Russian people (such as they are outside the major conurbations) matter the square root of eff all to Putin- he's not going to back down, but imo will string this out with relatively minimal force from them. Perhaps the answer is obviously yes,and I'm a bit slow, but maybe this whole thing was gamed as a big disruptor to the western economies when they were already on the covid ropes.

All the better for him if he can reduce the population of dagestanis, buryats etc

Zhivago wrote:

Banquo wrote:

Sandydragon wrote: Some of the noises coming from senior republicans in the US are a bit worrying. If the US decides not to continue its support then Ukraine is screwed. I worry that republicans will vote against anything Biden proposes just in order to oppose it.

unfortunately the (additional) privations of the Russian people (such as they are outside the major conurbations) matter the square root of eff all to Putin- he's not going to back down, but imo will string this out with relatively minimal force from them. Perhaps the answer is obviously yes,and I'm a bit slow, but maybe this whole thing was gamed as a big disruptor to the western economies when they were already on the covid ropes.

All the better for him if he can reduce the population of dagestanis, buryats etc

well quite

Sandydragon wrote:

Banquo wrote:

Sandydragon wrote: To be fair I’m surprised they haven’t already. The change in Italian government is also likely to open up some gaps in European solidarity.

Yup. TBH the solidarity has been pretty impressive- suspect Putin was thinking we'd crack earlier- but it looks like they are prepared for a long game.

Some of the noises coming from senior republicans in the US are a bit worrying. If the US decides not to continue its support then Ukraine is screwed. I worry that republicans will vote against anything Biden proposes just in order to oppose it.

Didn't both houses just vote to send ATACMS?

Yes, but there’s some interesting media articles on the growing number of republicans who are not happy with getting involved, and if they gain control of both houses in the next few months that could prove difficult.

Hopefully it’s just over sensitive commentators but playing politics comes easy to many of the MAGA community

And let's not forget that Ukraine is what Trump's first impeachment was about. There are a few Republican nutjobs who would be anti it just on that basis.

Puja

Articles coming to the surface about sanctions helping Russia. How Russia is just trading more with Asia.

And, well, my views haven't changed. If I was in charge, the rule would be simple: you want to trade with us, play by our rules. Our rules are: human rights are essential. No rights, no trade. Corps can go elsewhere for their cheap crap and we can cut China off as well as Russia, and as well as India. Let them sink and find another way to do it, even if it means more expensive electronics. We can't continue with the world like it is, people like Putin, Xi, Modi, and lapdogs like Trump, Bolsonaro, Orban, etc., have had enough power for enough time. Cut them off completely and find an alternative.

BTW, how hard is it for a government to, for instance, provide every household with a free induction hob? Or to offer incentives to turn to electric heating rather than gas. Yes, I know, some electricity is produced by gas, but it's still a better solution.

Meanwhile, get the major electrical plant projects back on line. Nuclear is an option. Increase WFH and close offices. It's possible, there's just no political appetite.

Stom wrote:Articles coming to the surface about sanctions helping Russia. How Russia is just trading more with Asia.

And, well, my views haven't changed. If I was in charge, the rule would be simple: you want to trade with us, play by our rules. Our rules are: human rights are essential. No rights, no trade. Corps can go elsewhere for their cheap crap and we can cut China off as well as Russia, and as well as India. Let them sink and find another way to do it, even if it means more expensive electronics. We can't continue with the world like it is, people like Putin, Xi, Modi, and lapdogs like Trump, Bolsonaro, Orban, etc., have had enough power for enough time. Cut them off completely and find an alternative.

BTW, how hard is it for a government to, for instance, provide every household with a free induction hob? Or to offer incentives to turn to electric heating rather than gas. Yes, I know, some electricity is produced by gas, but it's still a better solution.

Meanwhile, get the major electrical plant projects back on line. Nuclear is an option. Increase WFH and close offices. It's possible, there's just no political appetite.

Sorry, our lot aren't even willing to build windmills on land.

Banquo wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Banquo wrote:How long before Germany cave?

To be fair I’m surprised they haven’t already. The change in Italian government is also likely to open up some gaps in European solidarity.

Yup. TBH the solidarity has been pretty impressive- suspect Putin was thinking we'd crack earlier- but it looks like they are prepared for a long game.

Long game may change tho if Rus turns off the gas completely?

Sent from my CPH2195 using Tapatalk

Donny osmond wrote:

Banquo wrote:

Sandydragon wrote: To be fair I’m surprised they haven’t already. The change in Italian government is also likely to open up some gaps in European solidarity.

Yup. TBH the solidarity has been pretty impressive- suspect Putin was thinking we'd crack earlier- but it looks like they are prepared for a long game.

Long game may change tho if Rus turns off the gas completely?

Sent from my CPH2195 using Tapatalk

Yep, that's what I was driving at with long game.

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Stom wrote:Articles coming to the surface about sanctions helping Russia. How Russia is just trading more with Asia.

And, well, my views haven't changed. If I was in charge, the rule would be simple: you want to trade with us, play by our rules. Our rules are: human rights are essential. No rights, no trade. Corps can go elsewhere for their cheap crap and we can cut China off as well as Russia, and as well as India. Let them sink and find another way to do it, even if it means more expensive electronics. We can't continue with the world like it is, people like Putin, Xi, Modi, and lapdogs like Trump, Bolsonaro, Orban, etc., have had enough power for enough time. Cut them off completely and find an alternative.

BTW, how hard is it for a government to, for instance, provide every household with a free induction hob? Or to offer incentives to turn to electric heating rather than gas. Yes, I know, some electricity is produced by gas, but it's still a better solution.

Meanwhile, get the major electrical plant projects back on line. Nuclear is an option. Increase WFH and close offices. It's possible, there's just no political appetite.

Sorry, our lot aren't even willing to build windmills on land.

whilst we could do more, the UK isn't so bad on this, Sizewell c finally signed, non fossil fuel power and so on. We should do more on home insulation etc tho, separate to this argument on energy independence.

Stom wrote:
BTW, how hard is it for a government to, for instance, provide every household with a free induction hob?

Pretty hard. There’s obviously the cost, especially as building materials are suffering from levels of inflation similar to the rise in your energy bills (and have been since 2020), there is getting your hands on millions of units in a world where supply chains are gummed up and production lines are working way below capacity, then there is finding enough qualified people to fit the millions of units and then there’s the capacity of the grid to supply all these new electric items - news broke yesterday that no new houses could be built in parts of west London as there isn’t the capacity of elec supply.
Insulation is the sensible option but again isn’t as easy as just whacking a load of cladding on buildings or pumping insulation in to cavities. Previous initiatives have been prone to dodgy chancers creating more issues than they solve and even well intentioned council run programs have led to virtually uninhabitable houses due to ill thought out works. Even if you do get the insulation works to a high quality there is plenty of evidence that people then just use the same/similar amount of energy and have a warmer house and one less layer of clothing.
On the plus side, it looks like Scotland will set passive house standards as their minimum standard for new builds and hopefully the rest of the U.K. will follow… all we’ll have to do then is retrain an entire industry.
As for the idea that we can just transition to elec renewables, there are plenty of people and organisations who believe the U.K. will never be able to produce the supply required to run the entire country on renewable elec. A friend of friend works at Audi in their long term planning department (I’m sure it has a more fancy name than that) and they’re turning most of their attention to hydrogen due, mostly, to the green elec supply ceiling and, to a lesser extent, the worry that the next scandal are the conditions, ecological and human, at mines from where they source the lithium, carbon etc.

Banquo wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Stom wrote:Articles coming to the surface about sanctions helping Russia. How Russia is just trading more with Asia.

And, well, my views haven't changed. If I was in charge, the rule would be simple: you want to trade with us, play by our rules. Our rules are: human rights are essential. No rights, no trade. Corps can go elsewhere for their cheap crap and we can cut China off as well as Russia, and as well as India. Let them sink and find another way to do it, even if it means more expensive electronics. We can't continue with the world like it is, people like Putin, Xi, Modi, and lapdogs like Trump, Bolsonaro, Orban, etc., have had enough power for enough time. Cut them off completely and find an alternative.

BTW, how hard is it for a government to, for instance, provide every household with a free induction hob? Or to offer incentives to turn to electric heating rather than gas. Yes, I know, some electricity is produced by gas, but it's still a better solution.

Meanwhile, get the major electrical plant projects back on line. Nuclear is an option. Increase WFH and close offices. It's possible, there's just no political appetite.

Sorry, our lot aren't even willing to build windmills on land.

whilst we could do more, the UK isn't so bad on this, Sizewell c finally signed, non fossil fuel power and so on. We should do more on home insulation etc tho, separate to this argument on energy independence.

If we aren't so bad, I'd hate to see what bad looks like.

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Banquo wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote: Sorry, our lot aren't even willing to build windmills on land.

whilst we could do more, the UK isn't so bad on this, Sizewell c finally signed, non fossil fuel power and so on. We should do more on home insulation etc tho, separate to this argument on energy independence.

If we aren't so bad, I'd hate to see what bad looks like.

Fair enough, I was thinking that our reduction in dependence on fossil fuels for 'lectric was a good news story, but digging a bit deeper, not so much.

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Banquo wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote: Sorry, our lot aren't even willing to build windmills on land.

whilst we could do more, the UK isn't so bad on this, Sizewell c finally signed, non fossil fuel power and so on. We should do more on home insulation etc tho, separate to this argument on energy independence.

If we aren't so bad, I'd hate to see what bad looks like.

Let me introduce you to Hungary. Say hello to King Viktor, who believes that indentured servants should return to serve his climate change denying, fascist kingdom.