RugbyRebels

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2024 6:57 pm On another note, I wonder if Farages decision was influenced by a certain guilty verdict? No point going to the US to be Trumps mate if he’s not going to get elected. I suspect Farage has made a decision over what’s best for Farage and he can be too busy with the UK election to be that closely associated with Trump.

Puja wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2024 8:02 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2024 6:57 pm On another note, I wonder if Farages decision was influenced by a certain guilty verdict? No point going to the US to be Trumps mate if he’s not going to get elected. I suspect Farage has made a decision over what’s best for Farage and he can be too busy with the UK election to be that closely associated with Trump.

I would've said it's more likely influenced by no-one in America having the slightest bit of time for him - I'd be surprised if Trump even remembers his name, let alone is desperate for his help. I imagine he'll probably rake in more from a raised UK profile as an MP, or even just as leader of the Reform Party, than he would for 2-3 appearances on Fox News.

Puja

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2024 10:14 pm

Puja wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2024 8:02 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2024 6:57 pm On another note, I wonder if Farages decision was influenced by a certain guilty verdict? No point going to the US to be Trumps mate if he’s not going to get elected. I suspect Farage has made a decision over what’s best for Farage and he can be too busy with the UK election to be that closely associated with Trump.

I would've said it's more likely influenced by no-one in America having the slightest bit of time for him - I'd be surprised if Trump even remembers his name, let alone is desperate for his help. I imagine he'll probably rake in more from a raised UK profile as an MP, or even just as leader of the Reform Party, than he would for 2-3 appearances on Fox News.

Puja

I expect Farage's decision was at least partly because the bribe he was angling for from Sunak wasn't forthcoming.

There is a perfect scenario where Reform split the Tory vote, letting in a bunch of LibDems and Labour MPs, destroying the Tories in parliament but yielding no MPs for Reform. But that's too neat. The real horror would be Farage in parliament, the Tories in disarray, merging with Reform, Farage taking leadership. Reality somewhere inbetween I guess.

Puja wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 12:55 am

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2024 10:14 pm

Puja wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2024 8:02 pm

I would've said it's more likely influenced by no-one in America having the slightest bit of time for him - I'd be surprised if Trump even remembers his name, let alone is desperate for his help. I imagine he'll probably rake in more from a raised UK profile as an MP, or even just as leader of the Reform Party, than he would for 2-3 appearances on Fox News.

Puja

I expect Farage's decision was at least partly because the bribe he was angling for from Sunak wasn't forthcoming.

There is a perfect scenario where Reform split the Tory vote, letting in a bunch of LibDems and Labour MPs, destroying the Tories in parliament but yielding no MPs for Reform. But that's too neat. The real horror would be Farage in parliament, the Tories in disarray, merging with Reform, Farage taking leadership. Reality somewhere inbetween I guess.

I mean, the perfect scenario would be him standing in North West Essex and splitting Badenoch's vote, but we don't always get what we want.

The Tories can't merge with Reform, because they are two completely different entities - the former is a political party that is beholden to its members and has rules, traditions and principles, whereas the latter is a company acting as a political vehicle, that is beholden to no-one but the rich men who own it. Reform terrify me - we may complain about the 1822 Club, the Tory Party Conference, and the Tory Membership's perverse decisions to elect Liz Truss as leader, but they at least do vote and have some form of accountability. As seen from today, all that's needed for Reform to change leader is for the owners to will it.

Puja

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 9:38 am

Puja wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 12:55 am

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2024 10:14 pm
I expect Farage's decision was at least partly because the bribe he was angling for from Sunak wasn't forthcoming.

There is a perfect scenario where Reform split the Tory vote, letting in a bunch of LibDems and Labour MPs, destroying the Tories in parliament but yielding no MPs for Reform. But that's too neat. The real horror would be Farage in parliament, the Tories in disarray, merging with Reform, Farage taking leadership. Reality somewhere inbetween I guess.

I mean, the perfect scenario would be him standing in North West Essex and splitting Badenoch's vote, but we don't always get what we want.

The Tories can't merge with Reform, because they are two completely different entities - the former is a political party that is beholden to its members and has rules, traditions and principles, whereas the latter is a company acting as a political vehicle, that is beholden to no-one but the rich men who own it. Reform terrify me - we may complain about the 1822 Club, the Tory Party Conference, and the Tory Membership's perverse decisions to elect Liz Truss as leader, but they at least do vote and have some form of accountability. As seen from today, all that's needed for Reform to change leader is for the owners to will it.

Puja

I get what you're saying, although I fear this merely makes a formal merger more difficult rather than impossible. And an informal one, where Farage (and/or Tice) gets the leadership or significant control within the Tory party is more possible. The best defence they have right now is that Farage would be a massive threat to the ambitions of any of the major Tory figures (dear god, I am genuinely considering Braverman to be a major figure here ), so they'd be mad to let him in.

But we saw in 2019 how opportunistic and short-termist the Tories were in selecting Johnson (who, as predicted, crashed and burned himself and the party). It could happen again if they saw Farage as their best hope for regaining power. And the Tory members would elect Farage as leader without a second thought.

It is scary. It would be good if the LibDems stood aside (or, more realistically, didn't try too hard) to give Labour a clear run in Clacton, while the right-wing vote is horrifically split. Labour were a distant second in 2019 but obviously will see a significant swing this time.

Puja wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 10:12 am

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 9:38 am

Puja wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 12:55 am

I mean, the perfect scenario would be him standing in North West Essex and splitting Badenoch's vote, but we don't always get what we want.

The Tories can't merge with Reform, because they are two completely different entities - the former is a political party that is beholden to its members and has rules, traditions and principles, whereas the latter is a company acting as a political vehicle, that is beholden to no-one but the rich men who own it. Reform terrify me - we may complain about the 1822 Club, the Tory Party Conference, and the Tory Membership's perverse decisions to elect Liz Truss as leader, but they at least do vote and have some form of accountability. As seen from today, all that's needed for Reform to change leader is for the owners to will it.

Puja

I get what you're saying, although I fear this merely makes a formal merger more difficult rather than impossible. And an informal one, where Farage (and/or Tice) gets the leadership or significant control within the Tory party is more possible. The best defence they have right now is that Farage would be a massive threat to the ambitions of any of the major Tory figures (dear god, I am genuinely considering Braverman to be a major figure here ), so they'd be mad to let him in.

But we saw in 2019 how opportunistic and short-termist the Tories were in selecting Johnson (who, as predicted, crashed and burned himself and the party). It could happen again if they saw Farage as their best hope for regaining power. And the Tory members would elect Farage as leader without a second thought.

It is scary. It would be good if the LibDems stood aside (or, more realistically, didn't try too hard) to give Labour a clear run in Clacton, while the right-wing vote is horrifically split. Labour were a distant second in 2019 but obviously will see a significant swing this time.

I just looked up the MRP polls to see about the chances of a Labour win and got very depressed as it looked pretty bad for Labour unless there was a 50/50 split of votes (and it's the kind of seat where the Tory vote will peel straight over to Reform if given a start to vote for). However, I then read the small print and realised I was looking at the old seat and the boundaries have since changed to this, where Labour were already predicted to win 40.2% to 39.7% before Farage ever got involved! The seat has been extended inland to cover Great Bentley, Frating, and Little Oakley, all much more affluent, less deprived, and higher educated (not an insult - the coastline has some of the worst educational outcomes in the country) areas than the coastline. It's still a strong right constituency, but it's not the same demographic mix as that which elected UKIP in 2015. I don't think the Lib Dems would be trying very hard in that seat any which way; it's not their natural territory.

Hopefully Farage will peel more of the Conservative vote who despise the Tories but can't bring themselves to vote for Corbyn and Communism, than he will the people who were considering LAbour because they wanted to vote for change, and he'll end up humiliated for an 8th time.

Puja

Puja wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 10:12 am

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 9:38 am

Puja wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 12:55 am

I mean, the perfect scenario would be him standing in North West Essex and splitting Badenoch's vote, but we don't always get what we want.

The Tories can't merge with Reform, because they are two completely different entities - the former is a political party that is beholden to its members and has rules, traditions and principles, whereas the latter is a company acting as a political vehicle, that is beholden to no-one but the rich men who own it. Reform terrify me - we may complain about the 1822 Club, the Tory Party Conference, and the Tory Membership's perverse decisions to elect Liz Truss as leader, but they at least do vote and have some form of accountability. As seen from today, all that's needed for Reform to change leader is for the owners to will it.

Puja

I get what you're saying, although I fear this merely makes a formal merger more difficult rather than impossible. And an informal one, where Farage (and/or Tice) gets the leadership or significant control within the Tory party is more possible. The best defence they have right now is that Farage would be a massive threat to the ambitions of any of the major Tory figures (dear god, I am genuinely considering Braverman to be a major figure here ), so they'd be mad to let him in.

But we saw in 2019 how opportunistic and short-termist the Tories were in selecting Johnson (who, as predicted, crashed and burned himself and the party). It could happen again if they saw Farage as their best hope for regaining power. And the Tory members would elect Farage as leader without a second thought.

It is scary. It would be good if the LibDems stood aside (or, more realistically, didn't try too hard) to give Labour a clear run in Clacton, while the right-wing vote is horrifically split. Labour were a distant second in 2019 but obviously will see a significant swing this time.

I just looked up the MRP polls to see about the chances of a Labour win and got very depressed as it looked pretty bad for Labour unless there was a 50/50 split of votes (and it's the kind of seat where the Tory vote will peel straight over to Reform if given a star to vote for). However, I then read the small print and realised I was looking at the old seat and the boundaries have since changed to this, where Labour were already predicted to win 40.2% to 39.7% before Farage ever got involved! The seat has been extended inland to cover Great Bentley, Frating, and Little Oakley, all much more affluent, less deprived, and higher educated (not an insult - the coastline has some of the worst educational outcomes in the country) areas than the coastline. It's still a strong right constituency, but it's not the same demographic mix as that which elected UKIP in 2015. I don't think the Lib Dems would be trying very hard in that seat any which way; it's not their natural territory.

Hopefully Farage will peel more of the Conservative vote who despise the Tories but can't bring themselves to vote for Corbyn and Communism, than he will the people who were considering LAbour because they wanted to vote for change, and he'll end up humiliated for an 8th time.

Puja

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 10:29 am

Puja wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 10:12 am

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 9:38 am
I get what you're saying, although I fear this merely makes a formal merger more difficult rather than impossible. And an informal one, where Farage (and/or Tice) gets the leadership or significant control within the Tory party is more possible. The best defence they have right now is that Farage would be a massive threat to the ambitions of any of the major Tory figures (dear god, I am genuinely considering Braverman to be a major figure here ), so they'd be mad to let him in.

But we saw in 2019 how opportunistic and short-termist the Tories were in selecting Johnson (who, as predicted, crashed and burned himself and the party). It could happen again if they saw Farage as their best hope for regaining power. And the Tory members would elect Farage as leader without a second thought.

It is scary. It would be good if the LibDems stood aside (or, more realistically, didn't try too hard) to give Labour a clear run in Clacton, while the right-wing vote is horrifically split. Labour were a distant second in 2019 but obviously will see a significant swing this time.

I just looked up the MRP polls to see about the chances of a Labour win and got very depressed as it looked pretty bad for Labour unless there was a 50/50 split of votes (and it's the kind of seat where the Tory vote will peel straight over to Reform if given a star to vote for). However, I then read the small print and realised I was looking at the old seat and the boundaries have since changed to this, where Labour were already predicted to win 40.2% to 39.7% before Farage ever got involved! The seat has been extended inland to cover Great Bentley, Frating, and Little Oakley, all much more affluent, less deprived, and higher educated (not an insult - the coastline has some of the worst educational outcomes in the country) areas than the coastline. It's still a strong right constituency, but it's not the same demographic mix as that which elected UKIP in 2015. I don't think the Lib Dems would be trying very hard in that seat any which way; it's not their natural territory.

Hopefully Farage will peel more of the Conservative vote who despise the Tories but can't bring themselves to vote for Corbyn and Communism, than he will the people who were considering LAbour because they wanted to vote for change, and he'll end up humiliated for an 8th time.

Puja

That sounds a lot more positive. Surprising that Farage would pick that seat, even, given he has the whole country to choose from. He could do Labour's job for them .

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 10:29 am

Puja wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 10:12 am

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 9:38 am
I get what you're saying, although I fear this merely makes a formal merger more difficult rather than impossible. And an informal one, where Farage (and/or Tice) gets the leadership or significant control within the Tory party is more possible. The best defence they have right now is that Farage would be a massive threat to the ambitions of any of the major Tory figures (dear god, I am genuinely considering Braverman to be a major figure here ), so they'd be mad to let him in.

But we saw in 2019 how opportunistic and short-termist the Tories were in selecting Johnson (who, as predicted, crashed and burned himself and the party). It could happen again if they saw Farage as their best hope for regaining power. And the Tory members would elect Farage as leader without a second thought.

It is scary. It would be good if the LibDems stood aside (or, more realistically, didn't try too hard) to give Labour a clear run in Clacton, while the right-wing vote is horrifically split. Labour were a distant second in 2019 but obviously will see a significant swing this time.

I just looked up the MRP polls to see about the chances of a Labour win and got very depressed as it looked pretty bad for Labour unless there was a 50/50 split of votes (and it's the kind of seat where the Tory vote will peel straight over to Reform if given a star to vote for). However, I then read the small print and realised I was looking at the old seat and the boundaries have since changed to this, where Labour were already predicted to win 40.2% to 39.7% before Farage ever got involved! The seat has been extended inland to cover Great Bentley, Frating, and Little Oakley, all much more affluent, less deprived, and higher educated (not an insult - the coastline has some of the worst educational outcomes in the country) areas than the coastline. It's still a strong right constituency, but it's not the same demographic mix as that which elected UKIP in 2015. I don't think the Lib Dems would be trying very hard in that seat any which way; it's not their natural territory.

Hopefully Farage will peel more of the Conservative vote who despise the Tories but can't bring themselves to vote for Corbyn and Communism, than he will the people who were considering LAbour because they wanted to vote for change, and he'll end up humiliated for an 8th time.

Puja

That sounds a lot more positive. Surprising that Farage would pick that seat, even, given he has the whole country to choose from. He could do Labour's job for them .

Puja wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 3:08 pm Oh, even better - it was apparently a banana milkshake from McDonalds.

Zhivago wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 3:55 pm There is no space for violence against politicians in a healthy democracy.

Puja wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 3:56 pm Just looked a bit further into Clacton and my hopes of Labour winning the seat have taken a nose-dive. Their candidate is young, black, university-educated, which are all things the constituency is adamantly not, and has been parachuted in from London (which will not endear, considering Clacton regards Londoners as either bloody tourists ruining our town or not touristy enough and abandoning the British seaside for cheap flights abroad, depending on how much your job depends on the tourism trade). He seems like an excellent candidate who would win most seats, but the constituency has an average age of 51, is 97% White British (literal stat, not hyperbole), is highly insular, and I cannot see them voting for someone named Jovan Owusu Nepaul.

I hope to be proven wrong, but I don't have faith in the place where I grew up not to be incredibly racist.

Puja

Zhivago wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 3:55 pm There is no space for violence against politicians in a healthy democracy.

Puja wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 12:55 am

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2024 10:14 pm

Puja wrote: ↑Mon Jun 03, 2024 8:02 pm

I would've said it's more likely influenced by no-one in America having the slightest bit of time for him - I'd be surprised if Trump even remembers his name, let alone is desperate for his help. I imagine he'll probably rake in more from a raised UK profile as an MP, or even just as leader of the Reform Party, than he would for 2-3 appearances on Fox News.

Puja

I expect Farage's decision was at least partly because the bribe he was angling for from Sunak wasn't forthcoming.

There is a perfect scenario where Reform split the Tory vote, letting in a bunch of LibDems and Labour MPs, destroying the Tories in parliament but yielding no MPs for Reform. But that's too neat. The real horror would be Farage in parliament, the Tories in disarray, merging with Reform, Farage taking leadership. Reality somewhere inbetween I guess.

I mean, the perfect scenario would be him standing in North West Essex and splitting Badenoch's vote, but we don't always get what we want.

The Tories can't merge with Reform, because they are two completely different entities - the former is a political party that is beholden to its members and has rules, traditions and principles, whereas the latter is a company acting as a political vehicle, that is beholden to no-one but the rich men who own it. Reform terrify me - we may complain about the 1822 Club, the Tory Party Conference, and the Tory Membership's perverse decisions to elect Liz Truss as leader, but they at least do vote and have some form of accountability. As seen from today, all that's needed for Reform to change leader is for the owners to will it.

Puja

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 4:53 pm

Zhivago wrote: ↑Tue Jun 04, 2024 3:55 pm There is no space for violence against politicians in a healthy democracy.

Agreed, even if it's Farage, it's not on.

Puja wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 11:15 am I'm amazed by the pearl-clutching over this. It's not "violence against politicians" - it's a milkshake. It's a noisy and embarrassing protest, not violence.

Back onto serious politicians, Starmer did a terrible job at the debate. All very well explaining carefully afterwards that the Tories are lying and exaggerating, but most of the audience will not read the careful and well-cited later rebuttal - they just heard Sunak hammer home the point of "Labour will raise taxes by £2,000" over and over and Starmer fail to deal with it.

Puja

Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 1:59 pm How is it even possible they go in to a debate not prepared for "Labour are bad with money"?

Puja wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 2:58 pm

Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Wed Jun 05, 2024 1:59 pm How is it even possible they go in to a debate not prepared for "Labour are bad with money"?

It is baffling isn't it? If I was asked, before that debate, to bet my house on one thing that Sunak would say during it, it would have been, "Labour plan to raise taxes". And yet Starmer seemed to be taken unawares. I can only assume that the strategy was to "not dignify it with an answer," but that's clearly been a huge success, given the Tory papers are screaming headlines of "Starmer refuses to deny £2,000 tax hike for every household".

Puja