RugbyRebels

Hobson's choice for election coverage. Kuenssberg is intolerable, so changed over to Channel 4 and Dorries was talking, so switched to ITV and they were stultifyingly boring, plus the threat of George Osbourne being allowed to talk.

Puja

I’m liking the idea of watching on fast forward playback without sound. There’s hours of waffle to come

Banquo wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:09 pm reform predicted for 13....libdems plus 53.

%votes will be fascinating

Silver lining is that Conservatives with 130 should be strong enough to tell Farage to F off

Exit poll can be searched by constituency here:
https://news.sky.com/story/exit-poll-wh ... y-13163180

Puja wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:13 pm Hobson's choice for election coverage. Kuenssberg is intolerable, so changed over to Channel 4 and Dorries was talking, so switched to ITV and they were stultifyingly boring, plus the threat of George Osbourne being allowed to talk.

Puja

Kuennsberg has grown some teeth for some reason. I think the Beeb is easily the best of a bad bunch. I spose there's LBC or PolJoe but neither are much to my taste

410 MPs. Chance to enact some real change?

50 up, 600 to go

Lab = 45
Con = 2
LD = 2
Ref = 1

Reform have failed in 3 (that I've noticed) that the exit poll gave them 90%+ chancd of winning. Each and every one of those is a cause for celebration.

Galloway looses. Corbyn wins (TBC)

100-up

Lab = 81
Con = 10
LD = 8
Ref = 1


Grant Shapps and Alex Chalk are out

Looking better than I expected at this point. Still some horrific people holding seats but whatever.

Which Tyler wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:48 pm

Banquo wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:09 pm reform predicted for 13....libdems plus 53.

%votes will be fascinating

Silver lining is that Conservatives with 130 should be strong enough to tell Farage to F off

Possibly
Not. Several Tory MPs talking about how they weren’t conservative enough. I’m expecting a shift to the right and you won’t get a rizzla between them and reform until they realise that won’t work.

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:20 am

Which Tyler wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:48 pm

Banquo wrote: ↑Thu Jul 04, 2024 10:09 pm reform predicted for 13....libdems plus 53.

%votes will be fascinating

Silver lining is that Conservatives with 130 should be strong enough to tell Farage to F off

Possibly
Not. Several Tory MPs talking about how they weren’t conservative enough. I’m expecting a shift to the right and you won’t get a rizzla between them and reform until they realise that won’t work.

Badenoch will win the leadership election and she hates Farage. Unfortunately she's almost as reprehensible in and of herself, so frying pan -> fire.

Puja

Woke up to better news than I went to sleep on. Exit poll said Reform got 13 and the Greens 2, but I've come back to find them both on 4, which is an excellent result. Also Lib Dems outperforming their predicted 61 to 70+.

Unfortunately my area managed to beat the pre-election polls and somehow return a useless sod of a Tory MP. Bloody typical - last election I was under Michelle Donelan and I should be celebrating her ouster, but boundary changes mean I getAndrew Murrison back.

Puja

Get in!!!

Good to see the Tories get jumped, although not by as much as I would've liked, great to see LDs have such a good night, but top of the bill for me personally is seeing the SNP get humbled. Seeing useless, arrogant snouts-in-the-trough nationalist wankers getting booted will always put me in a good mood.

The overall result brings plenty of pressure for Labour, but that's for the next 5 years to sort out. For now I'm just enjoying the view.

Donny osmond wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:45 am Get in!!!

Good to see the Tories get jumped, although not by as much as I would've liked, great to see LDs have such a good night, but top of the bill for me personally is seeing the SNP get humbled. Seeing useless, arrogant snouts-in-the-trough nationalist wankers getting booted will always put me in a good mood.

The overall result brings plenty of pressure for Labour, but that's for the next 5 years to sort out. For now I'm just enjoying the view.

Lib Dem’s have cleaned up very blue seats round me. Having met them though, complete muppets. But less muppety than the tories. Fckin ell. Looking at the detail, Tory vote went to Reform, enabling narrow Lib Dem wins, suspect replicated across the south east, predictable I suppose.

Turnout a bit of a worry, and Lib Dem’s have so far gained 63 seats with a .6 % vote share increase, and Labour 210 on a 1.6% uptick. Weird stuff. Reform getting 16% is no joke either.

Banquo wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:53 am

Donny osmond wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:45 am Get in!!!

Good to see the Tories get jumped, although not by as much as I would've liked, great to see LDs have such a good night, but top of the bill for me personally is seeing the SNP get humbled. Seeing useless, arrogant snouts-in-the-trough nationalist wankers getting booted will always put me in a good mood.

The overall result brings plenty of pressure for Labour, but that's for the next 5 years to sort out. For now I'm just enjoying the view.

Lib Dem’s have cleaned up very blue seats round me. Having met them though, complete muppets. But less muppety than the tories. Fckin ell. Looking at the detail, Tory vote went to Reform, enabling narrow Lib Dem wins, suspect replicated across the south east, predictable I suppose.

Turnout a bit of a worry, and Lib Dem’s have so far gained 63 seats with a .6 % vote share increase, and Labour 210 on a 1.6% uptick. Weird stuff. Reform getting 16% is no joke either.

There's a lot of spin about Starmer doing great, but actually this is a poor performance. He is just lucky that the Tories imploded. If they don't bring in PR, the Tories will be back in power soon enough, probably after a merger with the far-right Reform party.

I mean if Farage hadn’t come back would anything even have changed? Starmer can’t be under the impression he has done this himself can he?

Farage has been Labour’s biggest asset, but the number of young supporters he has is alarming.

Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:54 am I mean if Farage hadn’t come back would anything even have changed? Starmer can’t be under the impression he has done this himself can he?

Farage has been Labour’s biggest asset, but the number of young supporters he has is alarming.

He comes across to me as someone who is capable of deluding himself into believing he is the cause of his success. I can quote from him on this - 'we did it'. Someone needs to tell him, 'no you didn't really, if you are honest with yourselves'.

We should look at this soberly and realise that Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Jeremy Corbyn achieved higher vote shares than Starmer has.

There is probably a not so ridiculous argument that Farage has been the most influential politician of the last decade.

Banquo wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:53 am

Donny osmond wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 7:45 am Get in!!!

Good to see the Tories get jumped, although not by as much as I would've liked, great to see LDs have such a good night, but top of the bill for me personally is seeing the SNP get humbled. Seeing useless, arrogant snouts-in-the-trough nationalist wankers getting booted will always put me in a good mood.

The overall result brings plenty of pressure for Labour, but that's for the next 5 years to sort out. For now I'm just enjoying the view.

Lib Dem’s have cleaned up very blue seats round me. Having met them though, complete muppets. But less muppety than the tories. Fckin ell. Looking at the detail, Tory vote went to Reform, enabling narrow Lib Dem wins, suspect replicated across the south east, predictable I suppose.

Turnout a bit of a worry, and Lib Dem’s have so far gained 63 seats with a .6 % vote share increase, and Labour 210 on a 1.6% uptick. Weird stuff. Reform getting 16% is no joke either.

Many of the Labour/ Liberal wins will have been in part due to the Reform surge.That is definitely a problem for the future and I think this result means that they are here to stay. I hope Farage gets bored and they fizzle out as a result since I think her personal charisma is outperforming his party. Its also clear that Reform will pick up plenty of blue collar worker's votes, so Labour has a future headache there.

Turnout was awful. Many traditonal tory voters didnt bother? Perhaps some Labour supporters decided that they wouldnt either since the decision wasnt in doubt overall.

Some Labour MPs had massive challenges in their seats, most obviously where there is concern over Gaza.

Overall, its a slapping for the Tories and a bit of a lukewarm welcome for Labour. Starmer needs to look past the numbers, which are superb and should allow him to be effective, and realise that there are very few safe seats anymore and a huge majority doesnt mean auto relection next time.

Zhivago wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:05 am

Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:54 am I mean if Farage hadn’t come back would anything even have changed? Starmer can’t be under the impression he has done this himself can he?

Farage has been Labour’s biggest asset, but the number of young supporters he has is alarming.

He comes across to me as someone who is capable of deluding himself into believing he is the cause of his success.

We should look at this soberly and realise that Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Jeremy Corbyn achieved higher vote shares than Starmer has.

There is probably a not so ridiculous argument that Farage has been the most influential politician of the last decade.

Without Farage, Labour would still have won, I think and analysis of votes needed here to be certain, but I'm sure it wouldnt be a landslide. Reform has done the Tories at the knees properly. Even where TOry MPs won, Karen Bradley in Staffs Moorlands for example, the Reform Challenge has been huge and turned a safe seat into a close run thing.

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:15 am

Zhivago wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:05 am

Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:54 am I mean if Farage hadn’t come back would anything even have changed? Starmer can’t be under the impression he has done this himself can he?

Farage has been Labour’s biggest asset, but the number of young supporters he has is alarming.

He comes across to me as someone who is capable of deluding himself into believing he is the cause of his success.

We should look at this soberly and realise that Theresa May, Boris Johnson, and Jeremy Corbyn achieved higher vote shares than Starmer has.

There is probably a not so ridiculous argument that Farage has been the most influential politician of the last decade.

Without Farage, Labour would still have won, I think and analysis of votes needed here to be certain, but I'm sure it wouldnt be a landslide. Reform has done the Tories at the knees properly. Even where TOry MPs won, Karen Bradley in Staffs Moorlands for example, the Reform Challenge has been huge and turned a safe seat into a close run thing.

Remember that Farage stood down his Reform candidates in 2019. He decided the outcome of that election, and this one.

FPTP is so messed up. It's a joke of an electoral system. The whims of one man is deciding what government we get.

So what options do we have to fix the system?
- Keep FPTP but have a run-off, like France.
- Introduce some federalisation, maybe as part of the reform of the House of Lords, or more widely.
- Move to a more proportional electoral system.

Zhivago wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:31 amThere's a lot of spin about Starmer doing great, but actually this is a poor performance. He is just lucky that the Tories imploded. If they don't bring in PR, the Tories will be back in power soon enough, probably after a merger with the far-right Reform party.

I don't see why he wouldn't have run a different campaign if the tories hadn't spent the entirety of his time as leader of the opposition imploding.

The labour campaign was absolutely to avoid giving the right wing press anything at all to shoot at them; because it was always a landslide win.

This election was always "get the tories out", and who could provide a new / temporary home for those tory voters. It's those voters Labour were chasing, to secure a big majority. I'm sure they don't mind LibDem and Green taking a few seats.
This is about as good a result as anyone could have hoped for, and the low turnout is, IMO, a result of it being a foregone conclusion.

Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:54 am I mean if Farage hadn’t come back would anything even have changed? Starmer can’t be under the impression he has done this himself can he?

Given that a labour landslide was a foregone conclusion before Farage came back, and Reform got candidates into most seats - yes, we'd have had broadly the same result; with more Lib Dem and lower voter turnout.

Which Tyler wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:42 am

Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:54 am I mean if Farage hadn’t come back would anything even have changed? Starmer can’t be under the impression he has done this himself can he?

Given that a labour landslide was a foregone conclusion before Farage came back

It was? I’m fuzzy on the timeline.

I’m not suggesting you simply tally up Con + Reform, but I’m not convinced that being incompetent (or just a total c***) was actually that much of a deal breaker for a lot of (traditionally) Tory voters.

Maybe I’m just struggling with the idea of eventual Reform voters who would have gone Lib Dem / Labour otherwise.

Ah, you’ve included a picture. Now pictures I can understand. Fair enough.

Although that doesn’t predate reform?

Which Tyler wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 9:42 am

Zhivago wrote: ↑Fri Jul 05, 2024 8:31 amThere's a lot of spin about Starmer doing great, but actually this is a poor performance. He is just lucky that the Tories imploded. If they don't bring in PR, the Tories will be back in power soon enough, probably after a merger with the far-right Reform party.

I don't see why he wouldn't have run a different campaign if the tories hadn't spent the entirety of his time as leader of the opposition imploding.

The labour campaign was absolutely to avoid giving the right wing press anything at all to shoot at them; because it was always a landslide win.

This election was always "get the tories out", and who could provide a new / temporary home for those tory voters. It's those voters Labour were chasing, to secure a big majority. I'm sure they don't mind LibDem and Green taking a few seats.
This is about as good a result as anyone could have hoped for, and the low turnout is, IMO, a result of it being a foregone conclusion.

That's certainly part of it, but there's also part that Starmer failed to get his base out in any way shape or form. I agree that he needed to provide a new/temporary home for centre ground voters, but he went further than that, spending a lot of his time chasing Sun and Times readers, looking to appeal to bluer and bluer segments of the electorate at diminishing returns.

You can't argue with the results of 170 seat majority, but he did also achieve 4% lower vote share than the deeply flawed Corbyn did with an ambitiously socialist manifesto that inspired hope. That 170 is built on sand - he's alienated a chunk of his base and, if he doesn't please the people who loaned him their vote, he could find himself in the same position as the Boris majority in 5 years' time.

I remain hopeful though that he will pivot to more ambitious policy-making now that the election is done. Surely he must do.

Puja