If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Mellsblue]

[Mellsblue]

[Mellsblue]

[Galfon]

H&M join Nike and Mcdonalds in leaving Russia.
A number of local withdrawls/retreats by Russ now reported at sea (tactical..), and in Kherson and Donetsk regions after Ukr counters.Russ struggling to get intended troop rotation in allegedly..slog on.
Rouble in good shape though..

[Zhivago]

H&M join Nike and Mcdonalds in leaving Russia.
A number of local withdrawls/retreats by Russ now reported at sea (tactical..), and in Kherson and Donetsk regions after Ukr counters.Russ struggling to get intended troop rotation in allegedly..slog on.
Rouble in good shape though..

Of course the ruble is in good shape. All these western companies pulling out will mean there's less rubles sold for Euros.

[Galfon]

Of course the ruble is in good shape. All these western companies pulling out will mean there's less rubles sold for Euros.

Rocketing fuel prices since the invasion, with plenty happy to comply with Russ. new payment terms also grist t'mill..

[Zhivago]

Ukraine softening up Kherson area for their soon-to-come offensive. Kherson cut of from resupply by recent strikes on two bridges. Antonivka Bridge over the Dnipro to the south side and Dariyivka Bridge over the Inhulets to the east side. Combined with the recent strikes on ammo depots, going to be a tough period for the Russkies. Ukraine will probably wait a few more weeks until their supply runs out more and then start.

[Galfon]

Kherson looks a real possibility now which would help nobble another big objective (Odesa/Moldova). Taking a pop at Crimea after that would be a massive kick in the nethers, and hugely symbolic. Just how far yer man reacts to that is anyones guess.

[Puja]

Kherson looks a real possibility now which would help nobble another big objective (Odesa/Moldova). Taking a pop at Crimea after that would be a massive kick in the nethers, and hugely symbolic. Just how far yer man reacts to that is anyones guess.

I mean, taking Crimea would be both highly symbolic and amusing, but is it a target that Ukraine wants to spend its energy on? They haven't really got the ability to split their attention too much and, while it's not exactly a full-on second front, it would detract from using forces elsewhere.

Puja

[Zhivago]

Kherson looks a real possibility now which would help nobble another big objective (Odesa/Moldova). Taking a pop at Crimea after that would be a massive kick in the nethers, and hugely symbolic. Just how far yer man reacts to that is anyones guess.

I mean, taking Crimea would be both highly symbolic and amusing, but is it a target that Ukraine wants to spend its energy on? They haven't really got the ability to split their attention too much and, while it's not exactly a full-on second front, it would detract from using forces elsewhere.

Puja

Liberating Crimea will enable Ukraine to contest a lot more of the black sea which would reduce the ability of Russia to fire their Kalibr missiles into Ukrainian population centres.

[Sandydragon]

Might also make Putin realise that its time to negotiate to save something. Or it could provide him still further.

Kherson will be hard for the Ukrainians. Fighting in urbanised areas favours the defenders and unlike the Russians, they don't have the tactic to obliterate it with artillery fire then mop up the rubble.

[Zhivago]

Ukraine softening up Kherson area for their soon-to-come offensive. Kherson cut off from resupply by recent strikes on two bridges. Antonivka Bridge over the Dnipro to the south side and Dariyivka Bridge over the Inhulets to the east side. Combined with the recent strikes on ammo depots, going to be a tough period for the Russkies. Ukraine will probably wait a few more weeks until their supply runs out more and then start.

[Zhivago]

Might also make Putin realise that its time to negotiate to save something. Or it could provide him still further.

Kherson will be hard for the Ukrainians. Fighting in urbanised areas favours the defenders and unlike the Russians, they don't have the tactic to obliterate it with artillery fire then mop up the rubble.

No, but they do have partisans.

[Sandydragon]

Might also make Putin realise that its time to negotiate to save something. Or it could provide him still further.

Kherson will be hard for the Ukrainians. Fighting in urbanised areas favours the defenders and unlike the Russians, they don't have the tactic to obliterate it with artillery fire then mop up the rubble.

No, but they do have partisans.

Lightly armed troops harassing supply lines is fair enough but to take and hold a city you want lots of infantry. And it’s shit.

[Zhivago]

Might also make Putin realise that its time to negotiate to save something. Or it could provide him still further.

Kherson will be hard for the Ukrainians. Fighting in urbanised areas favours the defenders and unlike the Russians, they don't have the tactic to obliterate it with artillery fire then mop up the rubble.

No, but they do have partisans.

Lightly armed troops harassing supply lines is fair enough but to take and hold a city you want lots of infantry. And it’s shit.

Ukraine isn't lacking infantry though. They've mobilised a million men. They're lacking arty, but not infantry.

[Sandydragon]

No, but they do have partisans.

Lightly armed troops harassing supply lines is fair enough but to take and hold a city you want lots of infantry. And it’s shit.

Ukraine isn't lacking infantry though. They've mobilised a million men. They're lacking arty, but not infantry.

Hopefully they have been trained well because urban warfare isn’t a place to learn on the job. And artillery isn’t that helpful when it’s your own city.

Hopefully the Russians will be demoralised and won’t try to ape Stalingrad levels of resilience

[Puja]

Hopefully the Russians will be demoralised and won’t try to ape Stalingrad levels of resilience

That's gotta be the hope, hasn't it? The Russian conscripts know full well at this point that they're not liberators to the people of Kherson and the antipathy they face will only grow as the Ukranians get closer. Couple that with the bridges at their backs being regularly shot out and there's hopefully going to be a fair few who will be thinking about being the ones who get out while the getting's good, instead of being the ones trying to cross the river under heavy fire. Only takes a few to crumble for it to turn into a rout.

Let's hope.

Puja

[Zhivago]

There is a video of a Russian soldier castrating a Ukrainian soldier alive (apparently, no way will I look for this one). Just another example of the barbarism the Ukrainians are facing.

[Banquo]

How long before Germany cave?

[Sandydragon]

How long before Germany cave?

To be fair I’m surprised they haven’t already. The change in Italian government is also likely to open up some gaps in European solidarity.

[Banquo]

How long before Germany cave?

To be fair I’m surprised they haven’t already. The change in Italian government is also likely to open up some gaps in European solidarity.

Yup. TBH the solidarity has been pretty impressive- suspect Putin was thinking we'd crack earlier- but it looks like they are prepared for a long game.

[Sandydragon]

How long before Germany cave?

To be fair I’m surprised they haven’t already. The change in Italian government is also likely to open up some gaps in European solidarity.

Yup. TBH the solidarity has been pretty impressive- suspect Putin was thinking we'd crack earlier- but it looks like they are prepared for a long game.

Some of the noises coming from senior republicans in the US are a bit worrying. If the US decides not to continue its support then Ukraine is screwed. I worry that republicans will vote against anything Biden proposes just in order to oppose it.

[Banquo]

To be fair I’m surprised they haven’t already. The change in Italian government is also likely to open up some gaps in European solidarity.

Yup. TBH the solidarity has been pretty impressive- suspect Putin was thinking we'd crack earlier- but it looks like they are prepared for a long game.

Some of the noises coming from senior republicans in the US are a bit worrying. If the US decides not to continue its support then Ukraine is screwed. I worry that republicans will vote against anything Biden proposes just in order to oppose it.

unfortunately the (additional) privations of the Russian people (such as they are outside the major conurbations) matter the square root of eff all to Putin- he's not going to back down, but imo will string this out with relatively minimal force from them. Perhaps the answer is obviously yes,and I'm a bit slow, but maybe this whole thing was gamed as a big disruptor to the western economies when they were already on the covid ropes.

[Zhivago]

Yup. TBH the solidarity has been pretty impressive- suspect Putin was thinking we'd crack earlier- but it looks like they are prepared for a long game.

Some of the noises coming from senior republicans in the US are a bit worrying. If the US decides not to continue its support then Ukraine is screwed. I worry that republicans will vote against anything Biden proposes just in order to oppose it.

unfortunately the (additional) privations of the Russian people (such as they are outside the major conurbations) matter the square root of eff all to Putin- he's not going to back down, but imo will string this out with relatively minimal force from them. Perhaps the answer is obviously yes,and I'm a bit slow, but maybe this whole thing was gamed as a big disruptor to the western economies when they were already on the covid ropes.

All the better for him if he can reduce the population of dagestanis, buryats etc

[Banquo]

Some of the noises coming from senior republicans in the US are a bit worrying. If the US decides not to continue its support then Ukraine is screwed. I worry that republicans will vote against anything Biden proposes just in order to oppose it.

unfortunately the (additional) privations of the Russian people (such as they are outside the major conurbations) matter the square root of eff all to Putin- he's not going to back down, but imo will string this out with relatively minimal force from them. Perhaps the answer is obviously yes,and I'm a bit slow, but maybe this whole thing was gamed as a big disruptor to the western economies when they were already on the covid ropes.

All the better for him if he can reduce the population of dagestanis, buryats etc

well quite