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Of course the ruble is in good shape. All these western companies pulling out will mean there's less rubles sold for Euros.Galfon wrote:H&M join Nike and Mcdonalds in leaving Russia.
A number of local withdrawls/retreats by Russ now reported at sea (tactical..), and in Kherson and Donetsk regions after Ukr counters.Russ struggling to get intended troop rotation in allegedly..slog on.
Rouble in good shape though..
Rocketing fuel prices since the invasion, with plenty happy to comply with Russ. new payment terms also grist t'mill..Zhivago wrote: Of course the ruble is in good shape. All these western companies pulling out will mean there's less rubles sold for Euros.
I mean, taking Crimea would be both highly symbolic and amusing, but is it a target that Ukraine wants to spend its energy on? They haven't really got the ability to split their attention too much and, while it's not exactly a full-on second front, it would detract from using forces elsewhere.Galfon wrote:Kherson looks a real possibility now which would help nobble another big objective (Odesa/Moldova). Taking a pop at Crimea after that would be a massive kick in the nethers, and hugely symbolic. Just how far yer man reacts to that is anyones guess.
Liberating Crimea will enable Ukraine to contest a lot more of the black sea which would reduce the ability of Russia to fire their Kalibr missiles into Ukrainian population centres.Puja wrote:I mean, taking Crimea would be both highly symbolic and amusing, but is it a target that Ukraine wants to spend its energy on? They haven't really got the ability to split their attention too much and, while it's not exactly a full-on second front, it would detract from using forces elsewhere.Galfon wrote:Kherson looks a real possibility now which would help nobble another big objective (Odesa/Moldova). Taking a pop at Crimea after that would be a massive kick in the nethers, and hugely symbolic. Just how far yer man reacts to that is anyones guess.
Puja
Zhivago wrote:Ukraine softening up Kherson area for their soon-to-come offensive. Kherson cut off from resupply by recent strikes on two bridges. Antonivka Bridge over the Dnipro to the south side and Dariyivka Bridge over the Inhulets to the east side. Combined with the recent strikes on ammo depots, going to be a tough period for the Russkies. Ukraine will probably wait a few more weeks until their supply runs out more and then start.
No, but they do have partisans.Sandydragon wrote:Might also make Putin realise that its time to negotiate to save something. Or it could provide him still further.
Kherson will be hard for the Ukrainians. Fighting in urbanised areas favours the defenders and unlike the Russians, they don't have the tactic to obliterate it with artillery fire then mop up the rubble.
Lightly armed troops harassing supply lines is fair enough but to take and hold a city you want lots of infantry. And it’s shit.Zhivago wrote:No, but they do have partisans.Sandydragon wrote:Might also make Putin realise that its time to negotiate to save something. Or it could provide him still further.
Kherson will be hard for the Ukrainians. Fighting in urbanised areas favours the defenders and unlike the Russians, they don't have the tactic to obliterate it with artillery fire then mop up the rubble.
Ukraine isn't lacking infantry though. They've mobilised a million men. They're lacking arty, but not infantry.Sandydragon wrote:Lightly armed troops harassing supply lines is fair enough but to take and hold a city you want lots of infantry. And it’s shit.Zhivago wrote:No, but they do have partisans.Sandydragon wrote:Might also make Putin realise that its time to negotiate to save something. Or it could provide him still further.
Kherson will be hard for the Ukrainians. Fighting in urbanised areas favours the defenders and unlike the Russians, they don't have the tactic to obliterate it with artillery fire then mop up the rubble.
Hopefully they have been trained well because urban warfare isn’t a place to learn on the job. And artillery isn’t that helpful when it’s your own city.Zhivago wrote:Ukraine isn't lacking infantry though. They've mobilised a million men. They're lacking arty, but not infantry.Sandydragon wrote:Lightly armed troops harassing supply lines is fair enough but to take and hold a city you want lots of infantry. And it’s shit.Zhivago wrote:
No, but they do have partisans.
That's gotta be the hope, hasn't it? The Russian conscripts know full well at this point that they're not liberators to the people of Kherson and the antipathy they face will only grow as the Ukranians get closer. Couple that with the bridges at their backs being regularly shot out and there's hopefully going to be a fair few who will be thinking about being the ones who get out while the getting's good, instead of being the ones trying to cross the river under heavy fire. Only takes a few to crumble for it to turn into a rout.Sandydragon wrote:Hopefully the Russians will be demoralised and won’t try to ape Stalingrad levels of resilience
To be fair I’m surprised they haven’t already. The change in Italian government is also likely to open up some gaps in European solidarity.Banquo wrote:How long before Germany cave?
Yup. TBH the solidarity has been pretty impressive- suspect Putin was thinking we'd crack earlier- but it looks like they are prepared for a long game.Sandydragon wrote:To be fair I’m surprised they haven’t already. The change in Italian government is also likely to open up some gaps in European solidarity.Banquo wrote:How long before Germany cave?
Some of the noises coming from senior republicans in the US are a bit worrying. If the US decides not to continue its support then Ukraine is screwed. I worry that republicans will vote against anything Biden proposes just in order to oppose it.Banquo wrote:Yup. TBH the solidarity has been pretty impressive- suspect Putin was thinking we'd crack earlier- but it looks like they are prepared for a long game.Sandydragon wrote:To be fair I’m surprised they haven’t already. The change in Italian government is also likely to open up some gaps in European solidarity.Banquo wrote:How long before Germany cave?
unfortunately the (additional) privations of the Russian people (such as they are outside the major conurbations) matter the square root of eff all to Putin- he's not going to back down, but imo will string this out with relatively minimal force from them. Perhaps the answer is obviously yes,and I'm a bit slow, but maybe this whole thing was gamed as a big disruptor to the western economies when they were already on the covid ropes.Sandydragon wrote:Some of the noises coming from senior republicans in the US are a bit worrying. If the US decides not to continue its support then Ukraine is screwed. I worry that republicans will vote against anything Biden proposes just in order to oppose it.Banquo wrote:Yup. TBH the solidarity has been pretty impressive- suspect Putin was thinking we'd crack earlier- but it looks like they are prepared for a long game.Sandydragon wrote: To be fair I’m surprised they haven’t already. The change in Italian government is also likely to open up some gaps in European solidarity.
All the better for him if he can reduce the population of dagestanis, buryats etcBanquo wrote:unfortunately the (additional) privations of the Russian people (such as they are outside the major conurbations) matter the square root of eff all to Putin- he's not going to back down, but imo will string this out with relatively minimal force from them. Perhaps the answer is obviously yes,and I'm a bit slow, but maybe this whole thing was gamed as a big disruptor to the western economies when they were already on the covid ropes.Sandydragon wrote:Some of the noises coming from senior republicans in the US are a bit worrying. If the US decides not to continue its support then Ukraine is screwed. I worry that republicans will vote against anything Biden proposes just in order to oppose it.Banquo wrote: Yup. TBH the solidarity has been pretty impressive- suspect Putin was thinking we'd crack earlier- but it looks like they are prepared for a long game.
well quiteZhivago wrote:All the better for him if he can reduce the population of dagestanis, buryats etcBanquo wrote:unfortunately the (additional) privations of the Russian people (such as they are outside the major conurbations) matter the square root of eff all to Putin- he's not going to back down, but imo will string this out with relatively minimal force from them. Perhaps the answer is obviously yes,and I'm a bit slow, but maybe this whole thing was gamed as a big disruptor to the western economies when they were already on the covid ropes.Sandydragon wrote: Some of the noises coming from senior republicans in the US are a bit worrying. If the US decides not to continue its support then Ukraine is screwed. I worry that republicans will vote against anything Biden proposes just in order to oppose it.