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Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Mon Oct 28, 2024 9:50 pm
by Son of Mathonwy
Banquo wrote: ↑Mon Oct 28, 2024 5:45 pm
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 26, 2024 3:58 pm
Reeves' plans to borrow more for investment look promising*. And clearly the markets are pretty calm about it. Sure yields went up - there would have to be a knee-jerk reaction upwards to this announcement - but +0.06% is just a murmur.
* but we shall see what she will actually spend it on . . .
Isn't it PFI mk 2, but with a different p? Lets hope the governance is substantially better. As you say, its the what that matters....
I think the choice of p makes quite a bit of difference
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2024 9:33 am
by Banquo
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 28, 2024 9:50 pm
Banquo wrote: ↑Mon Oct 28, 2024 5:45 pm
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Sat Oct 26, 2024 3:58 pm
Reeves' plans to borrow more for investment look promising*. And clearly the markets are pretty calm about it. Sure yields went up - there would have to be a knee-jerk reaction upwards to this announcement - but +0.06% is just a murmur.
* but we shall see what she will actually spend it on . . .
Isn't it PFI mk 2, but with a different p? Lets hope the governance is substantially better. As you say, its the what that matters....
I think the choice of p makes quite a bit of difference
not necessarily in a good way, unless the public sector can somehow start to deliver large projects well. I guess servicing the debt might not be as high, but the commissioners will likely be similar.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2024 9:44 am
by Which Tyler
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... eparations
Britain’s former colonies should be thankful for the legacy of empire, not demanding reparations, according to the Conservative leadership candidate Robert Jenrick.
The MP and former minister said countries that were part of the empire “owe us a debt of gratitude for the inheritance we left them” in the form of legal and democratic institutions.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2024 12:18 pm
by Puja
Which Tyler wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 9:44 am
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/20 ... eparations
Britain’s former colonies should be thankful for the legacy of empire, not demanding reparations, according to the Conservative leadership candidate Robert Jenrick.
The MP and former minister said countries that were part of the empire “owe us a debt of gratitude for the inheritance we left them” in the form of legal and democratic institutions.
I'm trying to work out if he genuinely believes that (far from impossible, given the teaching and media presentation of Empire that was around in mine and his day) or if he's just trying to out-right-wing Badenoch's declaration that reparations would never be on the table under her lead.
Still, good to see that Kipling's poetry remains popular.
Puja
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2024 12:56 pm
by Son of Mathonwy
Banquo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 9:33 am
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 28, 2024 9:50 pm
Banquo wrote: ↑Mon Oct 28, 2024 5:45 pm
Isn't it PFI mk 2, but with a different p? Lets hope the governance is substantially better. As you say, its the what that matters....
I think the choice of p makes quite a bit of difference
not necessarily in a good way, unless the public sector can somehow start to deliver large projects well. I guess servicing the debt might not be as high, but the commissioners will likely be similar.
If the p stands for public then what we're talking about is the normal way public infrastructure etc funded, ie with public money. To call that PFI mk2 is insanely misleading.
PFI brings huge problems. If the deal is too favourable to the private sector this means the state (schools, the NHS, whatever) being forced to overpay for services for decades. If it is too unfavourable (more unlikely) as we have seen, it leads to private companies failing at great cost and the state being forced to step in anyway. And it's all just dodgy accounting, a way to hide government debt.
We don't even know if this is for large projects yet (presumably it will be for a number of things) and, if it is, where's the evidence the private sector can deliver large projects any better than the state?
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2024 1:20 pm
by Banquo
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 12:56 pm
Banquo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 9:33 am
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Mon Oct 28, 2024 9:50 pm
I think the choice of p makes quite a bit of difference
not necessarily in a good way, unless the public sector can somehow start to deliver large projects well. I guess servicing the debt might not be as high, but the commissioners will likely be similar.
If the p stands for public then what we're talking about is the normal way public infrastructure etc funded, ie with public money. To call that PFI mk2 is insanely misleading.
PFI brings huge problems. If the deal is too favourable to the private sector this means the state (schools, the NHS, whatever) being forced to overpay for services for decades. If it is too unfavourable (more unlikely) as we have seen, it leads to private companies failing at great cost and the state being forced to step in anyway. And it's all just dodgy accounting, a way to hide government debt.
We don't even know if this is for large projects yet (presumably it will be for a number of things) and, if it is, where's the evidence the private sector can deliver large projects any better than the state?
Its possibly mark 2 in the sense that its extra borrowing for infrastructure build as was PFI, with a change of rules (not quite hiding debt, but increasing it through rule bending). 'insanely misleading'....ok, it was a mild jab, but you didn't see the question mark, obviously.
You seem convinced that public sector delivery is better than private. My argument on PFI is that it wasn't a terrible idea, but appallingly implemented. By the public sector
. So I'd hope the projects and their implementation are better handled either way, which was my original point. The commissioning and commissoners are key, and as you say, where and what.
BTW what would you point to as a state delivered project?
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2024 2:41 pm
by Son of Mathonwy
Banquo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 1:20 pm
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 12:56 pm
Banquo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 9:33 am
not necessarily in a good way, unless the public sector can somehow start to deliver large projects well. I guess servicing the debt might not be as high, but the commissioners will likely be similar.
If the p stands for public then what we're talking about is the normal way public infrastructure etc funded, ie with public money. To call that PFI mk2 is insanely misleading.
PFI brings huge problems. If the deal is too favourable to the private sector this means the state (schools, the NHS, whatever) being forced to overpay for services for decades. If it is too unfavourable (more unlikely) as we have seen, it leads to private companies failing at great cost and the state being forced to step in anyway. And it's all just dodgy accounting, a way to hide government debt.
We don't even know if this is for large projects yet (presumably it will be for a number of things) and, if it is, where's the evidence the private sector can deliver large projects any better than the state?
Its possibly mark 2 in the sense that its extra borrowing for infrastructure build as was PFI, with a change of rules (not quite hiding debt, but increasing it through rule bending). 'insanely misleading'....ok, it was a mild jab, but you didn't see the question mark, obviously.
You seem convinced that public sector delivery is better than private. My argument on PFI is that it wasn't a terrible idea, but appallingly implemented. By the public sector
. So I'd hope the projects and their implementation are better handled either way, which was my original point. The commissioning and commissoners are key, and as you say, where and what.
BTW what would you point to as a state delivered project?
Okay, it just seems so unlike PFI that the comparison doesn't illuminate anything. To me anyway
No not convinced in all cases but I'd like to see evidence that it's truly advantageous for the state to have the private sector deliver or maintain services or assets for the public sector. Yeah, PFI was appallingly implemented by the government.
I'm no expert but I assume the NHS is full of things that were built as part of a state delivered project.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2024 3:55 pm
by Banquo
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 2:41 pm
Banquo wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 1:20 pm
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Tue Oct 29, 2024 12:56 pm
If the p stands for public then what we're talking about is the normal way public infrastructure etc funded, ie with public money. To call that PFI mk2 is insanely misleading.
PFI brings huge problems. If the deal is too favourable to the private sector this means the state (schools, the NHS, whatever) being forced to overpay for services for decades. If it is too unfavourable (more unlikely) as we have seen, it leads to private companies failing at great cost and the state being forced to step in anyway. And it's all just dodgy accounting, a way to hide government debt.
We don't even know if this is for large projects yet (presumably it will be for a number of things) and, if it is, where's the evidence the private sector can deliver large projects any better than the state?
Its possibly mark 2 in the sense that its extra borrowing for infrastructure build as was PFI, with a change of rules (not quite hiding debt, but increasing it through rule bending). 'insanely misleading'....ok, it was a mild jab, but you didn't see the question mark, obviously.
You seem convinced that public sector delivery is better than private. My argument on PFI is that it wasn't a terrible idea, but appallingly implemented. By the public sector
. So I'd hope the projects and their implementation are better handled either way, which was my original point. The commissioning and commissoners are key, and as you say, where and what.
BTW what would you point to as a state delivered project?
Okay, it just seems so unlike PFI that the comparison doesn't illuminate anything. To me anyway
No not convinced in all cases but I'd like to see evidence that it's truly advantageous for the state to have the private sector deliver or maintain services or assets for the public sector. Yeah, PFI was appallingly implemented by the government.
I'm no expert but I assume the NHS is full of things that were built as part of a state delivered project.
The comparison was really about govt commissioning large projects funded with borrowing. On the detail- we might be having a different definition of 'delivery'.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2024 4:00 pm
by Mellsblue
Banquo you are being unfair, nobody has delivered fax machines more prolifically than the NHS procurement team.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Tue Oct 29, 2024 5:26 pm
by Mellsblue
A nice little primer to get you ready for tomorrow from the IFG:
https://www.instituteforgovernment.org. ... six-things
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Sat Nov 02, 2024 3:56 pm
by Son of Mathonwy
The budget. I like it better than I thought I would, because, despite what it said in their manifesto, Labour have decided to spend a bit more, to take us a little bit back from austerity. This is good. Hope the money will be well spent by Streeting et al. Not so pleased with the way the tax has been raised - the biggest part by significantly lowering the starting wage for employers' NICs and increasing the rate from 13.8% to 15%. This will obviously hit low income workers and the employers of low income workers fairly hard. Far better to have added a higher rate of 'ers NICs for higher rate earners ie those who can bear it more easily.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/October_2 ... dom_budget
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Sat Nov 02, 2024 4:14 pm
by Stom
Way to hide the news… Badenoch is the new leader of the Tories…
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Sat Nov 02, 2024 4:47 pm
by Son of Mathonwy
Stom wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2024 4:14 pm
Way to hide the news… Badenoch is the new leader of the Tories…
Jesus. Tory members just can't help themselves.
Bad news for the Tories but bad news for the country too. Hope Starmer can resist her bullshit, divisive lines - she's better ignored than humoured. But this nails one half of UK politics to the far right, even if it nails the Tories to obscurity. Farage must be laughing.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Sat Nov 02, 2024 5:24 pm
by Mellsblue
I know, they just can’t. They just won’t stop voting for female leaders. I just wish the other parties’ members were so progressive.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Sun Nov 03, 2024 5:07 pm
by Sandydragon
Stom wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2024 4:14 pm
Way to hide the news… Badenoch is the new leader of the Tories…
Which version of right wing candidate would you have preferred? I’m not a fan of Badenoch but I’d prefer her to Jenrick who seems desperate to be Farage without the pint
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Sun Nov 03, 2024 7:48 pm
by Puja
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 5:07 pm
Stom wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2024 4:14 pm
Way to hide the news… Badenoch is the new leader of the Tories…
Which version of right wing candidate would you have preferred? I’m not a fan of Badenoch but I’d prefer her to Jenrick who seems desperate to be Farage without the pint
Badenoch is a true believer though, which I regard as far more dangerous than the "ordering a demagogue from Temu" of Jenrick. I shudder to think of her being anywhere near power, although thankfully she hopefully won't be.
It'll be bad enough with her getting the platform to complain and whinge regularly and publically.
Puja
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Sun Nov 03, 2024 10:36 pm
by Son of Mathonwy
Puja wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 7:48 pm
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 5:07 pm
Stom wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2024 4:14 pm
Way to hide the news… Badenoch is the new leader of the Tories…
Which version of right wing candidate would you have preferred? I’m not a fan of Badenoch but I’d prefer her to Jenrick who seems desperate to be Farage without the pint
Badenoch is a true believer though, which I regard as far more dangerous than the "ordering a demagogue from Temu" of Jenrick. I shudder to think of her being anywhere near power, although thankfully she hopefully won't be.
It'll be bad enough with her getting the platform to complain and whinge regularly and publically.
Puja
Yep. Badenoch actually believes the Tories got ejected because they weren't right-wing enough. So if she ever gets in we'll see austerity-plus as she shrinks the state even further. At least with Jenrick there was the chance that he wouldn't because he was just saying anything to get elected (just like JD* and our own Keir). You know where you are with Badenoch. Unfortunately it's a very nasty place.
There is a danger that she'll out-charisma Starmer though. I think he can handle her but there is a risk. He needs to stay aloof.
* for Viz fans, I don't mean Salinger or Sports
.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Mon Nov 04, 2024 8:45 pm
by Sandydragon
Puja wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 7:48 pm
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 5:07 pm
Stom wrote: ↑Sat Nov 02, 2024 4:14 pm
Way to hide the news… Badenoch is the new leader of the Tories…
Which version of right wing candidate would you have preferred? I’m not a fan of Badenoch but I’d prefer her to Jenrick who seems desperate to be Farage without the pint
Badenoch is a true believer though, which I regard as far more dangerous than the "ordering a demagogue from Temu" of Jenrick. I shudder to think of her being anywhere near power, although thankfully she hopefully won't be.
It'll be bad enough with her getting the platform to complain and whinge regularly and publically.
Puja
Born again Christians can be more Christian than those who have held belief all their lives.
Ok not the greatest comparison I know but I wouldn’t underestimate the depth of Jenricks beliefs just because he assumed them more recently.
Neither is fit to be PM and this feels like the lurch to the right that the Tories felt they had to do before common sense breaks out again.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Mon Nov 04, 2024 11:10 pm
by Son of Mathonwy
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2024 8:45 pm
Puja wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 7:48 pm
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 5:07 pm
Which version of right wing candidate would you have preferred? I’m not a fan of Badenoch but I’d prefer her to Jenrick who seems desperate to be Farage without the pint
Badenoch is a true believer though, which I regard as far more dangerous than the "ordering a demagogue from Temu" of Jenrick. I shudder to think of her being anywhere near power, although thankfully she hopefully won't be.
It'll be bad enough with her getting the platform to complain and whinge regularly and publically.
Puja
Born again Christians can be more Christian than those who have held belief all their lives.
Ok not the greatest comparison I know but I wouldn’t underestimate the depth of Jenricks beliefs just because he assumed them more recently.
Neither is fit to be PM and this feels like the lurch to the right that the Tories felt they had to do
before common sense breaks out again.
But how much common sense is left in the party? Seems like most of it has been driven out, outnumbered 2 to 1 amongst the MPs . . . probably far less in the members.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 2:47 pm
by Sandydragon
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2024 11:10 pm
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2024 8:45 pm
Puja wrote: ↑Sun Nov 03, 2024 7:48 pm
Badenoch is a true believer though, which I regard as far more dangerous than the "ordering a demagogue from Temu" of Jenrick. I shudder to think of her being anywhere near power, although thankfully she hopefully won't be.
It'll be bad enough with her getting the platform to complain and whinge regularly and publically.
Puja
Born again Christians can be more Christian than those who have held belief all their lives.
Ok not the greatest comparison I know but I wouldn’t underestimate the depth of Jenricks beliefs just because he assumed them more recently.
Neither is fit to be PM and this feels like the lurch to the right that the Tories felt they had to do
before common sense breaks out again.
But how much common sense is left in the party? Seems like most of it has been driven out, outnumbered 2 to 1 amongst the MPs . . . probably far less in the members.
Anything is of course possible, but conservatives members quite like winning elections. After a rightward swing post 1997 they returned to a more central position once they realised they were getting battered by Labour. I think the idea of capturing a lot of UKIP support is a key factor at the moment. When it becomes clear that won’t produce a majority, they will start to think more sensibly.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 3:22 pm
by Puja
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 2:47 pm
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2024 11:10 pm
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2024 8:45 pm
Born again Christians can be more Christian than those who have held belief all their lives.
Ok not the greatest comparison I know but I wouldn’t underestimate the depth of Jenricks beliefs just because he assumed them more recently.
Neither is fit to be PM and this feels like the lurch to the right that the Tories felt they had to do
before common sense breaks out again.
But how much common sense is left in the party? Seems like most of it has been driven out, outnumbered 2 to 1 amongst the MPs . . . probably far less in the members.
Anything is of course possible, but conservatives members quite like winning elections. After a rightward swing post 1997 they returned to a more central position once they realised they were getting battered by Labour. I think the idea of capturing a lot of UKIP support is a key factor at the moment. When it becomes clear that won’t produce a majority, they will start to think more sensibly.
The problem will be if Labour continue to flounder - Badenoch could claim her approach is being successful just from the polls turning against Labour and traditional Conservative voters coming back. Not as though there's any other political home for centre-right people if Labour fuck things up.
Puja
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Tue Nov 05, 2024 4:38 pm
by Son of Mathonwy
Puja wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 3:22 pm
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Tue Nov 05, 2024 2:47 pm
Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Mon Nov 04, 2024 11:10 pm
But how much common sense is left in the party? Seems like most of it has been driven out, outnumbered 2 to 1 amongst the MPs . . . probably far less in the members.
Anything is of course possible, but conservatives members quite like winning elections. After a rightward swing post 1997 they returned to a more central position once they realised they were getting battered by Labour. I think the idea of capturing a lot of UKIP support is a key factor at the moment. When it becomes clear that won’t produce a majority, they will start to think more sensibly.
The problem will be if Labour continue to flounder - Badenoch could claim her approach is being successful just from the polls turning against Labour and traditional Conservative voters coming back. Not as though there's any other political home for centre-right people if Labour fuck things up.
Puja
Agreed, there are two obvious ways the Tories might
not drift back to the centre - 1) Badenoch is at least moderately successful in the polls/next election, or 2) if she fails, the Tories succumb to the temptation of the easy way back to power, by letting Farage into the party (with dire consequences for the party and the UK). If neither happens, eventually (maybe after another leader from the right) they might find their way back to moderation (although I can't see them returning to non-Brexiteer moderation in decades, if ever).
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Wed Nov 06, 2024 8:05 pm
by Sandydragon
Yeah. If Labour bomb and the conservatives can say cut the current majority in half, perhaps via some Faustian pact with Farage, then that might be enough to keep her going. The Conservatives were forced to accept a more moderate approach after they got a hiding repeatedly. If Labour allows them to reoccupy the centre ground then that might just happen.
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Nov 08, 2024 8:58 am
by Son of Mathonwy
Apologies for this. Not sure what the Welsh could possibly see in this dickhesd but I guess nothing would surprise me these days. (Caveat - its WOL, so could be completely made up)
https://www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wale ... l-30319278
Re: Snap General Election called
Posted: Fri Nov 08, 2024 12:44 pm
by Puja
Same thing as Trump, I guess - he is now the agent promising "C H A N G E" and people are fed up with the situation that they're in, so they're willing to take a flyer on a fuckwit rather than opt for a different shade of "more of the same".
Puja