COVID19

[Banquo]

This is somewhat surprising, whether the provenance is worth it is a good question. Suspect some frantic revision is going on
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/ ... ergencies/

based on this

https://www.ghsindex.org/

[Mellsblue]

Incidentally, there are a few 'side-effects' manifesting themselves in this crisis. Again, its a local view, but a and e's are running at 40% of normal useage, and ambulance use has also decreased, ditto GP volumes. The problem is that folks are now so reticent to call on emergency services that paramedics are now dealing with many more critically ill patients, esp those with CV; another problem is that many families have moved parents in with them, so social care needs have become much more complex and present the first responder with many issues to solve. Its a big shift in the 'system', I suppose unsurprising in hindsight.

I wonder what % of the decrease comes from which various reasons:
a) Doesn’t really need A&E/doc appointment but would go in normal circumstances
b) Not broken their leg on a sports field or in a car crash
c) Should be seeing someone but doesn’t because they’re scared they’ll get corona’d.

a) Hopefully people will learn a lesson
b) a positive (assuming people are still get their exercise elsewhere)
c) is an info campaign needed on this? Yes would seem to be the obvious answer from an outsider.

[Banquo]

Incidentally, there are a few 'side-effects' manifesting themselves in this crisis. Again, its a local view, but a and e's are running at 40% of normal useage, and ambulance use has also decreased, ditto GP volumes. The problem is that folks are now so reticent to call on emergency services that paramedics are now dealing with many more critically ill patients, esp those with CV; another problem is that many families have moved parents in with them, so social care needs have become much more complex and present the first responder with many issues to solve. Its a big shift in the 'system', I suppose unsurprising in hindsight.

I wonder what % of the decrease comes from which various reasons:
a) Doesn’t really need A&E/doc appointment but would go in normal circumstances
b) Not broken their leg on a sports field or in a car crash
c) Should be seeing someone but doesn’t because they’re scared they’ll get corona’d.

a) Hopefully people will learn a lesson
b) a positive (assuming people are still get their exercise elsewhere)
c) is an info campaign needed on this? Yes would seem to be the obvious answer from an outsider.

d- a lot less drunks and users in a and e.
Its not an obvious answer tbh, as the extra capacity this gives is handy, but it is swings and roundabouts. C is a mix of corona fear and being more responsible, anecdotally.

[Mellsblue]

This is somewhat surprising, whether the provenance is worth it is a good question. Suspect some frantic revision is going on
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/02/ ... ergencies/

based on this

https://www.ghsindex.org/

Whoops.

[Banquo]

Think the Dutch and Swedish govts are prob feeling a bit nervous about now, too.

[Mellsblue]

Is Germany tracking lower on deaths because of testing or/and treatment:

‘ The other question that needs to be asked is whether there is something about Germany’s treatment of coronavirus victims that has resulted in a lower death rate. That is how Dr Thomas Voshaar, a lung specialist who runs a clinic in the town of Heinsberg in North Rhine-Westphalia sees it. In an interview with the Frankfurter Allegmeine, he speaks of how he has treated 29 patients without suffering a single death so far. It isn’t testing that makes the difference, he says – he doesn’t even bother with the tests because he finds them unreliable. Instead, he gives suspected Covid-19 patients a CT scan of their lungs in order to assess the extent of damage – and then treats them occasionally.

What he doesn’t do, he says, is rush to put patients on a ventilator. In fact, only one of his patients so far has been given this form of treatment. It is best avoided for as long as possible, he says, because the machines exert too much pressure on the lungs, and the air supplied is too rich in oxygen. That can lead to patients dying of collapsed lung. He says he was astounded at the extent to which ventilators have been used to treat patients in Italy.

It backs up what critical care specialist Matt Strauss wrote here last week: that however much store politicians have put into their supply, ventilators are no panacea for coronavirus and indeed are themselves injurious to a patient’s health.’

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/is- ... ifferently

[Galfon]

Grim but could be grimmer (original projections):
'Death toll in the UK has increased by 936 to 7,172 (worst to date)
Eng (6,438), Sco (366), Wal (235) and NI (78).
NHS Eng: total number 6,483, a rise of 828 from Tue.
Patients were aged between 22 and 103-years-old & 46 of the 828 had no known underlying health conditions.'

Looks like the Beast-from-the-East will not be fading away quickly with the arrival of finer weather and we're in for the long haul they were hinting at.
Ita already in recession with others to follow - it's going to be an upside down world in a year's time.

[Banquo]

Grim but could be grimmer (original projections):
'Death toll in the UK has increased by 936 to 7,172 (worst to date)
Eng (6,438), Sco (366), Wal (235) and NI (78).
NHS Eng: total number 6,483, a rise of 828 from Tue.
Patients were aged between 22 and 103-years-old & 46 of the 828 had no known underlying health conditions.'

Looks like the Beast-from-the-East will not be fading away quickly with the arrival of finer weather and we're in for the long haul they were hinting at.
Ita already in recession with others to follow - it's going to be an upside down world in a year's time.

I think there's quite a big reporting lag for some reason. Monday's numbers were very low relatively to the trajectory. Still horrendous though- I do wonder about our treatment methods a bit now Mells has mentioned it.

Scotland has also changed how it reports the deaths.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Time and a plethora of inquiries will be required to find out who did what, when, how and why.
Just looking at numbers on a graph and deciding who acted correctly without context or letting the whole thing play out isn’t the best way of dealing with this in either the short or long term.

Yes, inquiries are needed, but that's for the future.

When I look at that graph I think "if we want to save lives we need to evaluate what South Korea is doing ASAP, and where appropriate, implement it", not "we can't possibly draw any conclusions from this right now, let's hold an inquiry in a couple of years".

As an example, I wonder if everyone who is praising the way China dealt with the crisis would accept the response of martial law, executions of dissenters and campaigns of disinformation from de Pfeffel’s govt. I somehow doubt it.

That's a ridiculous straw man.

1) South Korea (a democracy) is the most obvious stand out in that graph and is much more comparable to the UK than China is, so is clearly the first country to look at for best practice in Covid 19 response.

2) Why would adopting some of China's methods imply in any way that other, repressive methods are acceptable?

The U.K. has evaluated what S Korea have done, hence the belated rush for a rigorous testing regime.

If you just look at the data on the graph, we should also be following Sweden or Holland who have far less stringent protocols in place than the U.K. and are tracking below us. By quite a long way in Sweden’s case. You could also ask whether all the testing is worth it as Germany are tracking just below us. Given the anomalies I’ve just pointed out, you can not draw anything conclusive from those graphs. My point is that every internet ‘expert’ has decided definitely what is wrong and what is right. This could be with us for another 18months. It’s a marathon not a sprint.

Sweden's deaths have been increasing at 20% for the last three days; there's no way it's still on a low-ish trajectory.

Look at these numbers, or look at the graph again, either way it's just as obvious:

UK daily deaths increase: 15%, cumulative deaths per 1M population: 105
Holland daily deaths increase: 10%, cumulative deaths per 1M population: 131
Sweden daily deaths increase: 20%, cumulative deaths per 1M population: 68
South Korea daily deaths increase: 4%, cumulative deaths per 1M population: 4

If you can't see that SK is performing vastly better than the UK, Holland and Sweden, I really can't help you.

This could be with us for another 18months. It’s a marathon not a sprint.

Agreed this will be with us until a vaccine or effective treatment arrive (or the world gets herd immunity at the cost of millions of lives), and that could easily be 18 months. Unless we adopt the right strategy it will be an iron man marathon for us.

Whereas, South Korea has the virus under control and is not in lockdown. So it has saved lives (there are 35 dead brits for every dead South Korean) and its economy too. Its marathon will be a gentle stroll.

1) The South Korea govt. are tracking their citizens by phone. I very much doubt that would wash in the U.K. That both are democracies has little do do with it. A good friend of mine lived in S Korea for five years, they are a completely different culture. Far more used to obeying their govt and living with greater govt interference in their lives. I suppose you would do if you have a psycho with a nuclear arms programme on your doorstep. You only have to look at the amount of people flouting the rules, a growing movement asking if the long term economic fallout is worth such draconian measures and claims more lives will be lost in the long term by this steep economic down turn than you COVID to realise that the U.K. might not be as compliant as other nations. Behavioural scientists were part of the numerous committees that fed into SAGE. From what I’ve read, they were warning that the U.K. population would not tolerate overly stringent lockdowns, especially if we we’re ebbing in and out of them for 18 months.

Are you seriously saying that we would be happier killing thousands than to have the government track our phones (which we routinely let facebook do)?

South Korea is not in lockdown, so the impact of its strategy on the population is actually far less drastic than ours.

South Korea's method, in brief, is to test a lot (obviously), but also to contact trace (which is where we're falling down):
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/brie ... mpics.html

2) Which of China’s less oppressive measures would you have us adopt?

Testing (which we have only recently begun to take seriously) and rigorous contact tracing. Isolate those testing positive or having been in recent contact with those testing positive.
Where testing is not available, use symptoms as a proxy. it's not as good but it can still allow effective contact tracing - isolating citizens before they show symptoms.

Early use of this technique is why South Korea has been so successful. (Taiwan has been even more successful with it)

[Stom]

So we’re officially at 66 deaths here in Hungary. Considering a woman died before the first official death, suffering with all the symptoms, and whose daughter tested positive, yet her death was not registered as coronavirus...

It’s probably at least double that in reality.

One person in their 30s, an alcoholic. A handful in 40s and 50s. It’s very much hitting the pensioners here.

Very frustratingly, shopping is now proving impossible. You’re not allowed to shop between 9-12 unless you’re 65+. The shops close at 3pm except some large supermarkets. I need to work. I tried today to go to a 24h tesco because according to their website, they were open 24h.

So at 5am I was standing in front of a locked door with a hidden sign saying they open at 6. Fuckers.

I don’t know when I’m meant to shop. I’m with the kids until 1 and have around 6h of work to condensed into 5h, before their bedtime and then the shops are closed. Home delivery is sketchy and takes almost a week.

[Sandydragon]

Interesting claims in the Times today that scientists in Taiwan were keen to provide evidence that the virus could be transmitted from person to person back in January, but they were ignored by the WHO and China. Whilst you can still blame a few governments for taking risks with their populations health, the role of the WHO, it’s neutrality and the openness of China do need to be looked at once this is over.

[Mellsblue]

Yes, inquiries are needed, but that's for the future.

When I look at that graph I think "if we want to save lives we need to evaluate what South Korea is doing ASAP, and where appropriate, implement it", not "we can't possibly draw any conclusions from this right now, let's hold an inquiry in a couple of years".


That's a ridiculous straw man.

1) South Korea (a democracy) is the most obvious stand out in that graph and is much more comparable to the UK than China is, so is clearly the first country to look at for best practice in Covid 19 response.

2) Why would adopting some of China's methods imply in any way that other, repressive methods are acceptable?

The U.K. has evaluated what S Korea have done, hence the belated rush for a rigorous testing regime.

If you just look at the data on the graph, we should also be following Sweden or Holland who have far less stringent protocols in place than the U.K. and are tracking below us. By quite a long way in Sweden’s case. You could also ask whether all the testing is worth it as Germany are tracking just below us. Given the anomalies I’ve just pointed out, you can not draw anything conclusive from those graphs. My point is that every internet ‘expert’ has decided definitely what is wrong and what is right. This could be with us for another 18months. It’s a marathon not a sprint.

Sweden's deaths have been increasing at 20% for the last three days; there's no way it's still on a low-ish trajectory.

Look at these numbers, or look at the graph again, either way it's just as obvious:

UK daily deaths increase: 15%, cumulative deaths per 1M population: 105
Holland daily deaths increase: 10%, cumulative deaths per 1M population: 131
Sweden daily deaths increase: 20%, cumulative deaths per 1M population: 68
South Korea daily deaths increase: 4%, cumulative deaths per 1M population: 4

If you can't see that SK is performing vastly better than the UK, Holland and Sweden, I really can't help you.

This could be with us for another 18months. It’s a marathon not a sprint.

Agreed this will be with us until a vaccine or effective treatment arrive (or the world gets herd immunity at the cost of millions of lives), and that could easily be 18 months. Unless we adopt the right strategy it will be an iron man marathon for us.

Whereas, South Korea has the virus under control and is not in lockdown. So it has saved lives (there are 35 dead brits for every dead South Korean) and its economy too. Its marathon will be a gentle stroll.

1) The South Korea govt. are tracking their citizens by phone. I very much doubt that would wash in the U.K. That both are democracies has little do do with it. A good friend of mine lived in S Korea for five years, they are a completely different culture. Far more used to obeying their govt and living with greater govt interference in their lives. I suppose you would do if you have a psycho with a nuclear arms programme on your doorstep. You only have to look at the amount of people flouting the rules, a growing movement asking if the long term economic fallout is worth such draconian measures and claims more lives will be lost in the long term by this steep economic down turn than you COVID to realise that the U.K. might not be as compliant as other nations. Behavioural scientists were part of the numerous committees that fed into SAGE. From what I’ve read, they were warning that the U.K. population would not tolerate overly stringent lockdowns, especially if we we’re ebbing in and out of them for 18 months.

Are you seriously saying that we would be happier killing thousands than to have the government track our phones (which we routinely let facebook do)?

South Korea is not in lockdown, so the impact of its strategy on the population is actually far less drastic than ours.

South Korea's method, in brief, is to test a lot (obviously), but also to contact trace (which is where we're falling down):
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/23/brie ... mpics.html

2) Which of China’s less oppressive measures would you have us adopt?

Testing (which we have only recently begun to take seriously) and rigorous contact tracing. Isolate those testing positive or having been in recent contact with those testing positive.
Where testing is not available, use symptoms as a proxy. it's not as good but it can still allow effective contact tracing - isolating citizens before they show symptoms.

Early use of this technique is why South Korea has been so successful. (Taiwan has been even more successful with it)

This is becoming far too difficult to reply point by point on my phone.
Yes, I’m fully aware that S Korea are far more successful than the European countries. For someone who a few days ago was predicting the death of all U.K. residents within weeks your sudden superiority of the maths of this is astounding. My point is that, on the graph I provided, Holland and Sweden were tracking below the U.K. at relative points despite having less stringent regimes. That is not to say I agree with their approach, I’ve consistently said on here that I don’t, but that it’s far too early to say definitively who/what is right and who/what is wrong. For example, everyone is putting Germany’s lower death rate down to testing but a senior respiratory disease consultant over there is claiming that the tests are unreliable and the treatments path for those admitted to ICU are the main reason for the lower number of deaths.

The lack of context when comparing countries seems to be ignored.
A) Europe is a liberal part of the world not used to and not happy with govt interference in their lives. The Facebook comparison is a false equivalence based on an app that you chose to download and that many people don’t even realise tracks you compared to a govt command to download the app. I’ve not doubt large numbers would do it but, as seen with flouting lockdown rules, a decent proportion wouldn’t.
B) S Korea has first hand knowledge of a respiratory virus epidemic. Europe doesn’t and the U.K. playbook for this, going back years and years, was based on a influenza pandemic.
C) Europe is highly transitory both internally and externally. S Korea less so. Seoul airport deals with 58 million passengers a year, the four European hub airports process just under 300 million passengers a year. S Korea has no land borders (that you can cross) whereas Europe has free movement, for the vast majority, and, highlighted by yesterday’s resignation, very poor cross border cooperation.
D) If you believe everything coming out of the mouth of Chinese Communist Party then good luck to you. If you believe they’ve only arrested the spread by contact tracing and European style lockdowns then, again, good luck to you.

Finally, as you agree, it’s an 18 month sprint and I’m glad that, despite this being unprecedented, you’re certain that S Korea will gently stroll through it. I’ll wait for a vaccine successfully distributed across the world, or at least alot closer to that date, before deciding such things.

I’m certain that Europe and the US will come out if this badly and with serious questions to be answered. However, I’ll wait until more than 3 months in to make definitive statements and I certainly won’t agree you can just look at total deaths without even the slightest nod to cultural, historical and logistical differences.

[Donny osmond]

Everyone's figures are suspect at best. Drawing comparisons between countries based on their published figures and before the 1st wave is over, before the 2nd wave has even started and before final actual figures are available is pure guesswork.

And, ftaod, this does not mean I think the UK authorities haven't made any mistakes or shouldn't be held accountable for same. See my post earlier in this thread re lack of preparation.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

[Sandydragon]

Everyone's figures are suspect at best. Drawing comparisons between countries based on their published figures and before the 1st wave is over, before the 2nd wave has even started and before final actual figures are available is pure guesswork.

And, ftaod, this does not mean I think the UK authorities haven't made any mistakes or shouldn't be held accountable for same. See my post earlier in this thread re lack of preparation.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

Agreed, and looking at daily death rates is also perhaps unhelpful at this point, given hidden deaths etc.

I suspect very few countries and organisations will come out of this smelling of roses, potentially only South Korea and Singapore (which I have suggested all along before anyone decided to have a go without reading the thread all the way through).

[Mellsblue]

Everyone's figures are suspect at best. Drawing comparisons between countries based on their published figures and before the 1st wave is over, before the 2nd wave has even started and before final actual figures are available is pure guesswork.

And, ftaod, this does not mean I think the UK authorities haven't made any mistakes or shouldn't be held accountable for same. See my post earlier in this thread re lack of preparation.

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

Agreed, and looking at daily death rates is also perhaps unhelpful at this point, given hidden deaths etc.

I suspect very few countries and organisations will come out of this smelling of roses, potentially only South Korea and Singapore (which I have suggested all along before anyone decided to have a go without reading the thread all the way through).

All of the above.

[Digby]

South Korea in addition to having gone though a similar disease before and been better prepared to start locking down and testing is also one of if not the best place in the world to order online. Though for anyone who gives even a flying feck about worker rights one might not want to copy the South Korean system when it comes to the workers forming the supply chain that enables their online order/delivery economy, they're probably less tolerant of someone taking a break than Shaun Edwards is in accepting a defender being on the floor, even Shaun Edwards will accept a broken leg as a reason for not being up and in the line, not so much in SK

[Galfon]

How would they deal with this sort of behaviour ?
The mind boggles, on both counts..
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-l ... e-52227363

[Banquo]

quite interesting on peoples behaviours by country

https://yougov.co.uk/topics/internation ... 19-tracker

[Sandydragon]

Shame no info available from prior to 20 Feb. Would have been testing to see what the baseline had been for Asian countries as this crisis emerged.

[Banquo]

Shame no info available from prior to 20 Feb. Would have been testing to see what the baseline had been for Asian countries as this crisis emerged.

tells much about how CV19 was being viewed prior to that date, I guess....

[Mellsblue]

Hope:

https://www.pluristem.com/wp-content/up ... ELEASE.pdf

[Banquo]

Hope:

https://www.pluristem.com/wp-content/up ... ELEASE.pdf

Need all of that we can get.

[Galfon]

Hope:

https://www.pluristem.com/wp-content/up ... ELEASE.pdf

Small numbers/early days etc but promising nonetheless.International repeats next stage..hopefully costs, quantities, time-scales can be reachable for many if a goer.
Israeli embryo tech ?...will generate debate in some quarters but shouldn't do given the apocalyptic prospects..let those who can do.

[Banquo]

Bit of transparency from NHS E is helpful- the deaths they report as a headline are not the deaths in the last 24 hours as often stated, but those reported as CV19 deaths in that period, and some date back over a month. It looks like they are now restating daily deaths when they report.

[Galfon]

Bit of transparency from NHS E is helpful- the deaths they report as a headline are not the deaths in the last 24 hours as often stated, but those reported as CV19 deaths in that period, and some date back over a month. It looks like they are now restating daily deaths when they report.

Presumably this would be the data epidemiologists et al need most, even if not 100% real-time..the other figure would be more relevant for broader NHS analysis. One would hope all regions are reporting in the same way ?