RugbyRebels

Zhivago wrote:I think Trump has this. Certainly very tight. Hopefully I'm wrong, but based on the current results it looks like only 248 for Biden, and looks like he's lost Pennsylvania.

25% of the vote outstanding there so potentially not.

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:I think Trump has this. Certainly very tight. Hopefully I'm wrong, but based on the current results it looks like only 248 for Biden, and looks like he's lost Pennsylvania.

25% of the vote outstanding there so potentially not.

Trump has a lead of about 700,000 votes though

Sandydragon wrote:North Carolina and Georgia are seriously close.

Think Biden would have to win both of them though, one is not enough.

Zhivago wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:I think Trump has this. Certainly very tight. Hopefully I'm wrong, but based on the current results it looks like only 248 for Biden, and looks like he's lost Pennsylvania.

25% of the vote outstanding there so potentially not.

Trump has a lead of about 700,000 votes though

It looks daunting, but if the margin of postal votes is as expected then anything is possible. Wisconsin was quite red earlier today and is now leaning blue.

This one aint over yet.

Zhivago wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:North Carolina and Georgia are seriously close.

Think Biden would have to win both of them though, one is not enough.

Looking at the BBC map- Biden is on 224

Arizona has yet to be declared (on the BBC) so that's 11 EVs.
Nevada has yet to be declared and is 6 votes, although they are a long way off finished.
Wisconsin is 10 EVs and is seriously close, but Biden was behind and is now moving ahead.
Michigan is still leaning to Trump by 250K votes, but still have 20% of the vote to go - they have 16 EVs
Pennsylvania is still leaning to trump but has 25% of the votes to count, that one needs to be closely watched as Trumps 750K majority at the moment is quite sizeable but can be overhauled.

I'm not sure that Georgia and North Carolina are crucial, but if Biden can take one of those then it takes the pressure off having all the other votes needing to go his way. If the margin of a Biden victory is greater than one states contribution of EVs then it will blunt his proposed legal action.

Still hope.

Nevada's looking seriously squiffy - which completely changes the picture.

IIRC Biden needs Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan

I'm expecting 3-5 states having to recount... before going through the courts

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:North Carolina and Georgia are seriously close.

Think Biden would have to win both of them though, one is not enough.

Looking at the BBC map- Biden is on 224

Arizona has yet to be declared (on the BBC) so that's 11 EVs.
Nevada has yet to be declared and is 6 votes, although they are a long way off finished.
Wisconsin is 10 EVs and is seriously close, but Biden was behind and is now moving ahead.
Michigan is still leaning to Trump by 250K votes, but still have 20% of the vote to go - they have 16 EVs
Pennsylvania is still leaning to trump but has 25% of the votes to count, that one needs to be closely watched as Trumps 750K majority at the moment is quite sizeable but can be overhauled.

I'm not sure that Georgia and North Carolina are crucial, but if Biden can take one of those then it takes the pressure off having all the other votes needing to go his way. If the margin of a Biden victory is greater than one states contribution of EVs then it will blunt his proposed legal action.

Still hope.

I have it currently at Biden 251 vs 284 Trump

assuming
Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin go to Biden
Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Alaska go to Trump

Georgia and N.Carolina are 94% counted so unlikely to flip imo.
Pennsylvania is a large Trump lead so looks daunting. But about 1/3 remains to be counted, so it's possible.
Michigan Trump has a 200k lead with less than 20% left, and if that's the only one that flips, Biden won't have enough.
Nevada so far is Biden but by no means settled with only 2/3rds counted and a tiny lead.

the rest look settled.

I think for Biden to win he'll need to flip Pennsylvania

Which Tyler wrote:Nevada's looking seriously squiffy - which completely changes the picture.

IIRC Biden needs Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan

I'm expecting 3-5 states having to recount... before going through the courts

North Carolina is leaning towards Trump but with less than 100K majority. If it continues to be nibbled away then its likely that one could be contested in court.

Zhivago wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:
Think Biden would have to win both of them though, one is not enough.

Looking at the BBC map- Biden is on 224

Arizona has yet to be declared (on the BBC) so that's 11 EVs.
Nevada has yet to be declared and is 6 votes, although they are a long way off finished.
Wisconsin is 10 EVs and is seriously close, but Biden was behind and is now moving ahead.
Michigan is still leaning to Trump by 250K votes, but still have 20% of the vote to go - they have 16 EVs
Pennsylvania is still leaning to trump but has 25% of the votes to count, that one needs to be closely watched as Trumps 750K majority at the moment is quite sizeable but can be overhauled.

I'm not sure that Georgia and North Carolina are crucial, but if Biden can take one of those then it takes the pressure off having all the other votes needing to go his way. If the margin of a Biden victory is greater than one states contribution of EVs then it will blunt his proposed legal action.

Still hope.

I have it currently at Biden 251 vs 284 Trump

assuming
Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin go to Biden
Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Alaska go to Trump

Georgia and N.Carolina are 94% counted so unlikely to flip imo.
Pennsylvania is a large Trump lead so looks daunting.
Michigan Trump has a 200k lead with less than 20% left, and if that's the only one that flips, Biden won't have enough.
Nevada so far is Biden but by no means settled with only 2/3rds counted and a tiny lead.

the rest look settled.

Alaska is a definite for Trump. Lots of votes to count (% wise) but I will be amazed if that turns blue.

Scarily closer than the polls predicted. It's hard to comprehend how around half of all Americans want Trump, how there hasn't been a backlash.

But even if he loses will he just come back next time??

Which Tyler wrote:Nevada's looking seriously squiffy - which completely changes the picture.

IIRC Biden needs Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan

I'm expecting 3-5 states having to recount... before going through the courts

Pretty sure that would only bring Biden up to 267.

Zhivago wrote:

Which Tyler wrote:Nevada's looking seriously squiffy - which completely changes the picture.

IIRC Biden needs Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan

I'm expecting 3-5 states having to recount... before going through the courts

Pretty sure that would only bring Biden up to 267.

238 + 6 +11 + 10 + 16 = 281

Zhivago wrote:

Which Tyler wrote:Nevada's looking seriously squiffy - which completely changes the picture.

IIRC Biden needs Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan

I'm expecting 3-5 states having to recount... before going through the courts

Pretty sure that would only bring Biden up to 267.

CNN had that totalling 270 : 268 for Biden, assuming Maine's undeclared district, Georgia, Pennsylvania and N. Carolina all go Trump

Biden on 224 (according to BBC)
Arizona - 11
Nevada - 6
Wisconsin - 10
Maine 4

224 +31 = 255

Trump 213

Alaska - 3
Georgia - 16
North Carolina - 15
Michigan - 16
Pennsylvania - 20

213 + 70 = 283

Biden needs to hold those states where he currently leads and take Michigan for a total of 271.If he can pick up any of the others (realistically not Alaska) then its a bonus.

Which Tyler wrote:

Zhivago wrote:

Which Tyler wrote:Nevada's looking seriously squiffy - which completely changes the picture.

IIRC Biden needs Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan

I'm expecting 3-5 states having to recount... before going through the courts

Pretty sure that would only bring Biden up to 267.

CNN had that totalling 270 : 268 for Biden, assuming Maine's undeclared district, Georgia, Pennsylvania and N. Carolina all go Trump

Sorry I missed out District of Columbia, so indeed it would be 270.

I have Biden 254 vs Trump 284

Georgia, Michigan, or Pennsylvania all could swing it by themselves.

Zhivago wrote:

Which Tyler wrote:

Zhivago wrote:
Pretty sure that would only bring Biden up to 267.

CNN had that totalling 270 : 268 for Biden, assuming Maine's undeclared district, Georgia, Pennsylvania and N. Carolina all go Trump

Sorry I missed out District of Columbia, so indeed it would be 270.

I have Biden 254 vs Trump 284

Pennsylvania plus Michigan have a lot of votes to count in Biden areas.

Banquo wrote:

Zhivago wrote:

Which Tyler wrote: CNN had that totalling 270 : 268 for Biden, assuming Maine's undeclared district, Georgia, Pennsylvania and N. Carolina all go Trump

Sorry I missed out District of Columbia, so indeed it would be 270.

I have Biden 254 vs Trump 284

Pennsylvania plus Michigan have a lot of votes to count in Biden areas.

But Trump's lead is probably unassailable.

Zhivago wrote:

Banquo wrote:

Zhivago wrote:
Sorry I missed out District of Columbia, so indeed it would be 270.

I have Biden 254 vs Trump 284

Pennsylvania plus Michigan have a lot of votes to count in Biden areas.

But Trump's lead is probably unassailable.

If you dive into the counties, possibly not. There must be a reason Trump is panicking.

Zhivago wrote:

Banquo wrote:

Zhivago wrote:
Sorry I missed out District of Columbia, so indeed it would be 270.

I have Biden 254 vs Trump 284

Pennsylvania plus Michigan have a lot of votes to count in Biden areas.

But Trump's lead is probably unassailable.

I wouldn't be so sure. The 2 biggest cities in Penn have both only counted around half their votes, so that could easily be another 300-500k votes for Biden over Trump.

Ditto Atlanta.

Michigan looks very very tight.

To be honest, this looks dodgy as fuck from outside.

Stom wrote:

Zhivago wrote:

Banquo wrote: Pennsylvania plus Michigan have a lot of votes to count in Biden areas.

But Trump's lead is probably unassailable.

I wouldn't be so sure. The 2 biggest cities in Penn have both only counted around half their votes, so that could easily be another 300-500k votes for Biden over Trump.

Ditto Atlanta.

Michigan looks very very tight.

To be honest, this looks dodgy as fuck from outside.

Be somewhat ironic if Biden ended up crying foul. Whatever the outcome, clearly a lot of shy Trump voters, unsurprisingly I guess.

I'm guessing more shy voters than shy Trump voters, and the previous polling data discounted them from voting by too great a margin. But whilst the Dems have registered a lot of people to vote the GOP have done the same & in addition the GOP have turned our a huge % of their likely voters

At what point do we grant refugee status to sane Americans?

Trump might just catch Biden in Nevada, its getting very tight there.

As an aside, I definitely prefer the UK method of doing this - one announcement when all votes are counter (and re-counted if necessary) rather than this slow drip feed of updates. I suppose the size of the individual states makes the UK approach more difficult.

Michigan lead down to 70k with 13% still left... looks the most likely way if Biden will manage it.

Detroit to win it for Biden perhaps?

Zhivago wrote:Michigan lead down to 70k with 13% still left... looks the most likely way if Biden will manage it.

yep, wayne county etc could swing it totally.