If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Galfon]

Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron have spoken over the phone and discussed the situation at the Zaporizhzhia plant.
In a statement following the call, the Kremlin said that Putin "stressed that the systematic shelling by the Ukrainian military" of the power plant "creates the danger of a sizeable disaster".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-62603741

Quite a few worries for the wider region from this - though not unexpected.
( irrespective of any untruths or lies that may or may not be in the process of being paddled, peddled, or piddled )

[cashead]

Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron have spoken over the phone and discussed the situation at the Zaporizhzhia plant.
In a statement following the call, the Kremlin said that Putin "stressed that the systematic shelling by the Ukrainian military" of the power plant "creates the danger of a sizeable disaster".

lol, how about not invading Ukraine and giving back the territory you stole, you fucking bloated bald-headed dipshit.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Vladimir Putin and French President Emmanuel Macron have spoken over the phone and discussed the situation at the Zaporizhzhia plant.
In a statement following the call, the Kremlin said that Putin "stressed that the systematic shelling by the Ukrainian military" of the power plant "creates the danger of a sizeable disaster".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-62603741

Quite a few worries for the wider region from this - though not unexpected.
( irrespective of any untruths or lies that may or may not be in the process of being paddled, peddled, or piddled )

Pretty hard to believe that the Ukrainians would shell their own nuclear power station.

[paddy no 11]

The Dugin thing.................who knows..............can we call this the end of the beginning as possible some new actors have entered? Or putin has gone increasingly deranged

[Mellsblue]

[paddy no 11]

That's good news at least, need to grind out the winter next, those numbers will drop

The German numbers would be interesting between now and December say

[Which Tyler]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national ... -survival/

[Which Tyler]

Looks like things are afoot in Kherson - sounds like the DPR troops there have buggered off. Followed quickly by the Russian Paras.
But so much misinformation out there, I wouldn't get hops up just yet.

[paddy no 11]

Hon ta fuck Ukraine, drive these cu*ts out, and hopefully putin gets taken from within

[Zhivago]

Looks like things are afoot in Kherson - sounds like the DPR troops there have buggered off. Followed quickly by the Russian Paras.
But so much misinformation out there, I wouldn't get hops up just yet.

It's so hard to beer this wait until we get concrete info.

[Banquo]

Looks like things are afoot in Kherson - sounds like the DPR troops there have buggered off. Followed quickly by the Russian Paras.
But so much misinformation out there, I wouldn't get hops up just yet.

It's so hard to beer this wait until we get concrete info.

what ales ye?

[Which Tyler]

It's so hard to beer this wait until we get concrete info.

Generally, I think that no news is good news.
Ukraine are getting stronger week by week, whilst Russia are getting weaker week by week.
Ukraine are essentially besieging Kherson, and Russia are moving more troops into the area (and possibly losing a fair few AWOL) at the same time as having ever harder time resupplying, and (apparently) withdrawing their command structures from Kherson. So more, troops, with less food and weaponry, no direct chain of command, and no allowance to use initiative, all whilst seeing their escape routes bombed out - that's gotta be good for morale!

Meanwhile, it looks like (but unconfirmed) Ukraine are now attacking Donetsk City, eswpecially around the airport - about a week after Russia redeploy however many of the troops away from there, expecting a frontal assault in Kherson, where no assault is particularly necessary.

[Zhivago]

Looks like things are afoot in Kherson - sounds like the DPR troops there have buggered off. Followed quickly by the Russian Paras.
But so much misinformation out there, I wouldn't get hops up just yet.

It's so hard to beer this wait until we get concrete info.

what ales ye?

This anxiety, which isn't relieved by the pils I'm taking.

[Puja]

It's so hard to beer this wait until we get concrete info.

Generally, I think that no news is good news.
Ukraine are getting stronger week by week, whilst Russia are getting weaker week by week.
Ukraine are essentially besieging Kherson, and Russia are moving more troops into the area (and possibly losing a fair few AWOL) at the same time as having ever harder time resupplying, and (apparently) withdrawing their command structures from Kherson. So more, troops, with less food and weaponry, no direct chain of command, and no allowance to use initiative, all whilst seeing their escape routes bombed out - that's gotta be good for morale!

Meanwhile, it looks like (but unconfirmed) Ukraine are now attacking Donetsk City, eswpecially around the airport - about a week after Russia redeploy however many of the troops away from there, expecting a frontal assault in Kherson, where no assault is particularly necessary.

Ukraine are playing an absolute blinder in my eyes. They can't afford any meatgrinder battles in cities, they can't do what the Russians did and flatten half the city with artillery to clear the way, and they can't entice the Russians out. So instead, they're preying on the poor morale of the Russian army, threatening attacks so the occupiers are never comfortable and then never coming, destroying supply lines and materiel, forcing them to move from one front to another, making public pronouncements that if they run, they will not be fired upon. The pip was the reveal today that they'd been making HIMARS models out of wood and leaving them in tempting locations to get the Russians to waste cruise missiles, meaning that the recent string of "We destroyed foreign weapons" propaganda that Russia's been putting out is undercut (and also making them hesitant over launching cruise missiles in future for fear of wasting it on another replica, giving them more freedom for their actual HIMARS).

The aim has to be that, at some point, the average Russian squaddie decides he's more fucked off with the situation than he is scared of Putin and the entire army revolts.

Puja

[Sandydragon]

It's so hard to beer this wait until we get concrete info.

Generally, I think that no news is good news.
Ukraine are getting stronger week by week, whilst Russia are getting weaker week by week.
Ukraine are essentially besieging Kherson, and Russia are moving more troops into the area (and possibly losing a fair few AWOL) at the same time as having ever harder time resupplying, and (apparently) withdrawing their command structures from Kherson. So more, troops, with less food and weaponry, no direct chain of command, and no allowance to use initiative, all whilst seeing their escape routes bombed out - that's gotta be good for morale!

Meanwhile, it looks like (but unconfirmed) Ukraine are now attacking Donetsk City, eswpecially around the airport - about a week after Russia redeploy however many of the troops away from there, expecting a frontal assault in Kherson, where no assault is particularly necessary.

Ukraine are playing an absolute blinder in my eyes. They can't afford any meatgrinder battles in cities, they can't do what the Russians did and flatten half the city with artillery to clear the way, and they can't entice the Russians out. So instead, they're preying on the poor morale of the Russian army, threatening attacks so the occupiers are never comfortable and then never coming, destroying supply lines and materiel, forcing them to move from one front to another, making public pronouncements that if they run, they will not be fired upon. The pip was the reveal today that they'd been making HIMARS models out of wood and leaving them in tempting locations to get the Russians to waste cruise missiles, meaning that the recent string of "We destroyed foreign weapons" propaganda that Russia's been putting out is undercut (and also making them hesitant over launching cruise missiles in future for fear of wasting it on another replica, giving them more freedom for their actual HIMARS).

The aim has to be that, at some point, the average Russian squaddie decides he's more fucked off with the situation than he is scared of Putin and the entire army revolts.

Puja

On the whole, the Ukrainians have been much better led and are making good use of tactical advantages nd strategic space to wear down and knock back the Russians. Russia is countering through huge firepower, which is now being countered by better wester weaponry.

Its clear that many Russian soldiers don't want to be there, but there are still a lot of them and digging them out of the likes of Kherson will be difficult. The attacker normally takes greater casualties and the ukrainians will have a higher reluctance to use bombardment than the Russians did. Hitting supply lines and cutting off Russian formations is the smart move and hopefully poor Russian morale will do the job. If the Ukrainians have to go into cities like Kherson to winkle out hardliners then expect it to get bloody.

[Galfon]

As one window opens..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62750584

[Sandydragon]

As one window opens..

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62750584

How clumsy of him

[Zhivago]

This is juicy. Even if it comes to nothing, I'm sure the blood is boiling in Moscow.

[morepork]

Those pontoons for crossing the Dnipro sure are under fire control. I might be a little cold blooded, but this sort of video pleases me.

That's some ugly shit to post on a rugby forum chief.

[Puja]

Those pontoons for crossing the Dnipro sure are under fire control. I might be a little cold blooded, but this sort of video pleases me.

That's some ugly shit to post on a rugby forum chief.

JFC Zhiv. It's not a sporting event where we're just cheering on our team - those are real actual people, general soldiers who probably don't have the first clue about the greater situation and who aren't the decision-makers, and you're excitedly sharing a video of them dying. What the fuck.

Puja

[Zhivago]

Sorry for posting the video, in hindsight, it was of course too graphic to post here. I am very emotionally invested in this war due to personal reasons - certainly not treating it like bloodsport. That clouded my judgement.

I promise I won't post anything containing graphic scenes from now on. I'll stick to more strategic discussion.

[Zhivago]

And on the strategic side, we have some serious developments over the last few days.

After having pulled Russia's best troops away from the east into the Kherson trap, Ukraine has begun a massive combined arms offensive in the Kherson region, aimed at destroying their Izium bridgehead. The obvious target is the logistical hub Kupiansk. Cutting off Kupiansk will completely ruin Russia's supply lines to Izium.

And Ukraine has blasted through the front lines, Russia is in total disarray. Ukraine is blitzing towards Kupiansk, bypassing (but encircling) unimport towns like Baliklaya along the way. Russians are panicking (Telegram channels are flooded with copy paste don't panic messages), and in their panicked retreat fall right into Ukrainian ambushes with lots of POWs.

General map of the offensive as of yesterday.


Map of railways in the area (in Green). Kupiansk is where the circle/hub is seen.

[Zhivago]

And about the whole gas discussion. There is a map here that shows just how divided Russia's pipelines are. Their Western Siberia gas fields/pipelines that supply gas to Europe are completely disconnected from the Eastern Siberia gas pipelines that supply China etc.

If Russia does not sell its gas to Europe it cannot sell it (most of it anyway) anywhere else. It has severe capacity restraints. They plan to connect up these pipelines with the Power of Siberia 2 pipeline from 2024 onwards, but even then it will not give enough capacity to replace the European supply. In the meantime, what will they do? If they don't sell to Europe, they can only burn the gas at the field, or close the field down. It will be very costly for them.

[Zhivago]

Also to understand how Russia functions politically from a historical perspective, this summary of its expansion was enlightening.
https://kamilkazani2.substack.com/p/how ... so-big?s=w

[Zhivago]

Those pontoons for crossing the Dnipro sure are under fire control. I might be a little cold blooded, but this sort of video pleases me.

That's some ugly shit to post on a rugby forum chief.

JFC Zhiv. It's not a sporting event where we're just cheering on our team - those are real actual people, general soldiers who probably don't have the first clue about the greater situation and who aren't the decision-makers, and you're excitedly sharing a video of them dying. What the fuck.

Puja

I admit I shouldn't have posted the video, it was crass.

I would like to discuss this point that you're trying to make though. It sounds like you have the opinion that only the Russian leadership bear responsibility for this war, and Russian soldiers and citizenry are completely in the dark about the whole situation and do not understand what is going on. This is in my opinion very far from reality.

There is plenty of evidence that they know full well the situation they are in (excepting only perhaps that some of the citizenry don't understand that Russia is losing). It stands to reason that if they didn't understand the situation (and in particular that Russia is losing), they wouldn't be fleeing from Kherson over these pontoons.

When Kherson is liberated it will be revealed that the atrocities exceeded those in Bucha. My sympathy does not extend to such brutes.