Trump

[Sandydragon]

Nevada's looking seriously squiffy - which completely changes the picture.

IIRC Biden needs Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan

I'm expecting 3-5 states having to recount... before going through the courts

North Carolina is leaning towards Trump but with less than 100K majority. If it continues to be nibbled away then its likely that one could be contested in court.

[Sandydragon]

Think Biden would have to win both of them though, one is not enough.

Looking at the BBC map- Biden is on 224

Arizona has yet to be declared (on the BBC) so that's 11 EVs.
Nevada has yet to be declared and is 6 votes, although they are a long way off finished.
Wisconsin is 10 EVs and is seriously close, but Biden was behind and is now moving ahead.
Michigan is still leaning to Trump by 250K votes, but still have 20% of the vote to go - they have 16 EVs
Pennsylvania is still leaning to trump but has 25% of the votes to count, that one needs to be closely watched as Trumps 750K majority at the moment is quite sizeable but can be overhauled.

I'm not sure that Georgia and North Carolina are crucial, but if Biden can take one of those then it takes the pressure off having all the other votes needing to go his way. If the margin of a Biden victory is greater than one states contribution of EVs then it will blunt his proposed legal action.

Still hope.

I have it currently at Biden 251 vs 284 Trump

assuming
Arizona, Nevada, Wisconsin go to Biden
Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Alaska go to Trump

Georgia and N.Carolina are 94% counted so unlikely to flip imo.
Pennsylvania is a large Trump lead so looks daunting.
Michigan Trump has a 200k lead with less than 20% left, and if that's the only one that flips, Biden won't have enough.
Nevada so far is Biden but by no means settled with only 2/3rds counted and a tiny lead.

the rest look settled.

Alaska is a definite for Trump. Lots of votes to count (% wise) but I will be amazed if that turns blue.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Scarily closer than the polls predicted. It's hard to comprehend how around half of all Americans want Trump, how there hasn't been a backlash.

But even if he loses will he just come back next time??

[Zhivago]

Nevada's looking seriously squiffy - which completely changes the picture.

IIRC Biden needs Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan

I'm expecting 3-5 states having to recount... before going through the courts

Pretty sure that would only bring Biden up to 267.

[paddy no 11]

Nevada's looking seriously squiffy - which completely changes the picture.

IIRC Biden needs Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan

I'm expecting 3-5 states having to recount... before going through the courts

Pretty sure that would only bring Biden up to 267.

238 + 6 +11 + 10 + 16 = 281

[Which Tyler]

Nevada's looking seriously squiffy - which completely changes the picture.

IIRC Biden needs Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan

I'm expecting 3-5 states having to recount... before going through the courts

Pretty sure that would only bring Biden up to 267.

CNN had that totalling 270 : 268 for Biden, assuming Maine's undeclared district, Georgia, Pennsylvania and N. Carolina all go Trump

[Sandydragon]

Biden on 224 (according to BBC)
Arizona - 11
Nevada - 6
Wisconsin - 10
Maine 4

224 +31 = 255

Trump 213

Alaska - 3
Georgia - 16
North Carolina - 15
Michigan - 16
Pennsylvania - 20

213 + 70 = 283

Biden needs to hold those states where he currently leads and take Michigan for a total of 271.If he can pick up any of the others (realistically not Alaska) then its a bonus.

[Zhivago]

Nevada's looking seriously squiffy - which completely changes the picture.

IIRC Biden needs Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin and Michigan

I'm expecting 3-5 states having to recount... before going through the courts

Pretty sure that would only bring Biden up to 267.

CNN had that totalling 270 : 268 for Biden, assuming Maine's undeclared district, Georgia, Pennsylvania and N. Carolina all go Trump

Sorry I missed out District of Columbia, so indeed it would be 270.

I have Biden 254 vs Trump 284

Georgia, Michigan, or Pennsylvania all could swing it by themselves.

[Banquo]

Pretty sure that would only bring Biden up to 267.

CNN had that totalling 270 : 268 for Biden, assuming Maine's undeclared district, Georgia, Pennsylvania and N. Carolina all go Trump

Sorry I missed out District of Columbia, so indeed it would be 270.

I have Biden 254 vs Trump 284

Pennsylvania plus Michigan have a lot of votes to count in Biden areas.

[Zhivago]

CNN had that totalling 270 : 268 for Biden, assuming Maine's undeclared district, Georgia, Pennsylvania and N. Carolina all go Trump

Sorry I missed out District of Columbia, so indeed it would be 270.

I have Biden 254 vs Trump 284

Pennsylvania plus Michigan have a lot of votes to count in Biden areas.

But Trump's lead is probably unassailable.

[Banquo]

Sorry I missed out District of Columbia, so indeed it would be 270.

I have Biden 254 vs Trump 284

Pennsylvania plus Michigan have a lot of votes to count in Biden areas.

But Trump's lead is probably unassailable.

If you dive into the counties, possibly not. There must be a reason Trump is panicking.

[Stom]

Sorry I missed out District of Columbia, so indeed it would be 270.

I have Biden 254 vs Trump 284

Pennsylvania plus Michigan have a lot of votes to count in Biden areas.

But Trump's lead is probably unassailable.

I wouldn't be so sure. The 2 biggest cities in Penn have both only counted around half their votes, so that could easily be another 300-500k votes for Biden over Trump.

Ditto Atlanta.

Michigan looks very very tight.

To be honest, this looks dodgy as fuck from outside.

[Banquo]

Pennsylvania plus Michigan have a lot of votes to count in Biden areas.

But Trump's lead is probably unassailable.

I wouldn't be so sure. The 2 biggest cities in Penn have both only counted around half their votes, so that could easily be another 300-500k votes for Biden over Trump.

Ditto Atlanta.

Michigan looks very very tight.

To be honest, this looks dodgy as fuck from outside.

Be somewhat ironic if Biden ended up crying foul. Whatever the outcome, clearly a lot of shy Trump voters, unsurprisingly I guess.

[Digby]

I'm guessing more shy voters than shy Trump voters, and the previous polling data discounted them from voting by too great a margin. But whilst the Dems have registered a lot of people to vote the GOP have done the same & in addition the GOP have turned our a huge % of their likely voters

At what point do we grant refugee status to sane Americans?

[Sandydragon]

Trump might just catch Biden in Nevada, its getting very tight there.

[Sandydragon]

As an aside, I definitely prefer the UK method of doing this - one announcement when all votes are counter (and re-counted if necessary) rather than this slow drip feed of updates. I suppose the size of the individual states makes the UK approach more difficult.

[Zhivago]

Michigan lead down to 70k with 13% still left... looks the most likely way if Biden will manage it.

Detroit to win it for Biden perhaps?

[Banquo]

Michigan lead down to 70k with 13% still left... looks the most likely way if Biden will manage it.

yep, wayne county etc could swing it totally.

[Zhivago]

Michigan lead down to 70k with 13% still left... looks the most likely way if Biden will manage it.

yep, wayne county etc could swing it totally.

That's the only hope left, I think.

[Banquo]

Wisconsin seems to have narrowed towards Trump as well. Brown county, appropriately could swing it back to Trump.

[Zhivago]

Wisconsin seems to have narrowed towards Trump as well. Brown county, appropriately could swing it back to Trump.

That is scarily tight.

[Stom]

The media coverage is interesting and it seems like the Granuiad haven't learnt any of their lessons and are saying it'll be tough for Trump to win...

I don't see how it's anything but extraordinarily tight, which is scary.

[Zhivago]

The media coverage is interesting and it seems like the Granuiad haven't learnt any of their lessons and are saying it'll be tough for Trump to win...

I don't see how it's anything but extraordinarily tight, which is scary.

Cos journalists are innumerate

[Puja]

I'm guessing more shy voters than shy Trump voters, and the previous polling data discounted them from voting by too great a margin. But whilst the Dems have registered a lot of people to vote the GOP have done the same & in addition the GOP have turned our a huge % of their likely voters

At what point do we grant refugee status to sane Americans?

Agreed - the polling clearly underestimated how many people would turn out and weighed their samples wrongly.

Frankly, everything being this close on a high-turnout election has shaken me a bit. I had been working on the basis that Trump has his ridiculous base of racists, bigots, white supremacists, etc that would turn out fervently for him in any situation and would win him an election in a depressed turnout scenario, but would be overwhelmed by the sane people if there was a large turnout.

As it turns out, we've got 67 million people who have looked at the last four years - the incredible debt the US has built up giving tax cuts to high earners, the expansion in wealth of billionaires, the gutting of healthcare, the gutting of environmental protections, the voter suppression and disdain for electoral processes, the constant stream of lies and disinformation - and decided that that's the country they believe in.

Even if Biden wins, I'm as saddened by that as I would've been by a low turnout and a Trump victory. At least that way I could've continued believing that 48% of America didn't actively buy into fascism.

Puja


ETA. Although would sane Americans want to come here given our shift Trumpwards? It's like a refugee in the 1930s leaving Germany to settle down in Spain.

[Stom]

I'm guessing more shy voters than shy Trump voters, and the previous polling data discounted them from voting by too great a margin. But whilst the Dems have registered a lot of people to vote the GOP have done the same & in addition the GOP have turned our a huge % of their likely voters

At what point do we grant refugee status to sane Americans?

Agreed - the polling clearly underestimated how many people would turn out and weighed their samples wrongly.

Frankly, everything being this close on a high-turnout election has shaken me a bit. I had been working on the basis that Trump has his ridiculous base of racists, bigots, white supremacists, etc that would turn out fervently for him in any situation and would win him an election in a depressed turnout scenario, but would be overwhelmed by the sane people if there was a large turnout.

As it turns out, we've got 67 million people who have looked at the last four years - the incredible debt the US has built up giving tax cuts to high earners, the expansion in wealth of billionaires, the gutting of healthcare, the gutting of environmental protections, the voter suppression and disdain for electoral processes, the constant stream of lies and disinformation - and decided that that's the country they believe in.

Even if Biden wins, I'm as saddened by that as I would've been by a low turnout and a Trump victory. At least that way I could've continued believing that 48% of America didn't actively buy into fascism.

Puja

We didn't take into account certain slurs and just how terribly ingrained they are into the psyche of older and rural Americans as well as Latinos...

I'm talking "socialist". Jeez.