Trump

[Which Tyler]

Think tump was in a rage after fox called arizona for biden....he said it in speech and you could see the rage on him

Yes, he was raging, but was being kept quiet... right up until Biden addressed the crowd, then they just couldn't hold him back anymore?

These would need to go to court to delay a clear result. If only Pennsylvania and Georgia go to court it doesn't prevent Biden winning.

I'd assume Michigan too?

I'm more thinking of only the closer states going to recount. I think Michigan an Wisconsin are pulling out too big a gap.
Basically, if the victor gets above 50%, it should be safe, unless its to disenfrachise ballots that arrive after 6.00pm yesterday. Even Barr is unlikely to try to get votes thrown out that had arrived at the counting stations before counting started.

[morepork]

I wouldn't be so sure about PA. There are over 1.4 million outstanding absentee votes to be tallied, most of these from the greater Philadelphia area, Pittsburgh and (usually) safe blue areas. Probably won't have a result until Friday.

[Sandydragon]

BBC news have just talked though the Biden route to victory, mirroring what we have come up with. We should pimp our services out.

[Sandydragon]

Latest on Pennsylvania from the BBC

Trump - 3021331
Biden 2480744

Difference - 540657 with 78% of the vote counted, which is about half the lead that Which Tyler posted earlier this afternoon. Its very possible it could turn blue, but a long way to go.

[Which Tyler]

My PA prediction is red, but close enough for an automatic recount.
It's going to narrow, but seems to be on track to be too close to call. 10 hours ago, Biden needed about ,75% of the remaining votes. Now he needs about 75% or the remaining votes.


Biden extends Michigan to 32564 with 92% counted. I expect him to push over 50%

[Sandydragon]

My PA prediction is red, but close enough for an automatic recount.
It's going to narrow, but seems to be on track to be too close to call. 10 hours ago, Biden needed about ,75% of the remaining votes. Now he needs about 75% or the remaining votes.


Biden extends Michigan to 32564 with 92% counted. I expect him to push over 50%

Yeah, Pennsylvania is still too close to call, albeit Biden has a bit of a mountain to climb.

Both Michigan and Wisconsin are looking good for Biden. Biden's lead is increasing in Michigan, and the difference in Wisconsin is remaining the same with only 3% of the vote left to count. Ideally, Biden will win that state with a difference of greater than 1% to avoid a recount.

[paddy no 11]

yes to avoiding recounts - just provides a vacuum for conspiracy (violence) to fill

[Sandydragon]

The Mooch has just backed Biden to win.

[Which Tyler]

Interesting.
Just hearing that North Carolina has about 250k ballots to count when they get around to it (after the late arrivals deadline), so that number can only go up.
Trump currently leading by 77k.

I've no idea how those 250k are expected to break, where they're from or how they were delivered.

The Mooch has just backed Biden to win.

He was last night (GMT) as well.
He's obviously completely fallen off the Trump Train


Georgia's numbers just changed, didn't catch what to, bit narrower than when I summarised at lunchtime

[paddy no 11]

Wisconsin declared by 20K votes, think thats not enough to avoid recount if requested......but 20K is pretty significant they may fight other states if narrower

[morepork]

Latest on Pennsylvania from the BBC

Trump - 3021331
Biden 2480744

Difference - 540657 with 78% of the vote counted, which is about half the lead that Which Tyler posted earlier this afternoon. Its very possible it could turn blue, but a long way to go.

It's going to take a few days boss.

[Which Tyler]

Wisconsin declared by 20K votes, think thats not enough to avoid recount if requested......but 20K is pretty significant they may fight other states if narrower

Declared by?

CNN and AP haven't yet

[Sandydragon]

Latest on Pennsylvania from the BBC

Trump - 3021331
Biden 2480744

Difference - 540657 with 78% of the vote counted, which is about half the lead that Which Tyler posted earlier this afternoon. Its very possible it could turn blue, but a long way to go.

It's going to take a few days boss.

It's something to keep us all interested in lockdown!

[morepork]

The Mooch has just backed Biden to win.

That guy is a cartoon character. How does he get paid to be a cartoon character?


and, how the fuck is this thing so close?

[Sandydragon]

Wisconsin declared by 20K votes, think thats not enough to avoid recount if requested......but 20K is pretty significant they may fight other states if narrower

Declared by?

CNN and AP haven't yet

BBC just stated that Michigan is still counting tens of thousands of votes and will have an 'unofficial' result by the end of the day. Currently Biden has a 33K majority.

[Sandydragon]

The Mooch has just backed Biden to win.

That guy is a cartoon character. How does he get paid to be a cartoon character?


and, how the fuck is this thing so close?

You tell me mate, but I'm fucked if I understand why this is even a contest!!

Arguably, on the popular vote side its not that close (or it won't be) so you do have to question the Electoral College. That said the fact that Trump has increased his number of votes is baffling and concerning.

[Mikey Brown]

Just watched a bit of BBC's rolling coverage. It's insane how openly they talk about the drama and excitement that comes with such a tight election race. You expect that shit in America, but I thought over here we'd at least pretend that this isn't meant to be entertainment?

[Mikey Brown]

And why does the fact the popular vote isn't as close make any difference to the validity of the electoral college? Whether you agree with the logic of it or not, that's kind of the point?

[Puja]

yes to avoiding recounts - just provides a vacuum for conspiracy (violence) to fill

Although I will be wryly amused if the Trump campaign, who were saying Monday that results should be known on Election Day and anything else was UnAmerican, demand recounts so that the results won't be confirmed till later. Not that they've got the least bit of shame over hypocrisy, but it'll amuse me.

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

Just watched a bit of BBC's rolling coverage. It's insane how openly they talk about the drama and excitement that comes with such a tight election race. You expect that shit in America, but I thought over here we'd at least pretend that this isn't meant to be entertainment?

They're trying to hold onto their viewers despite almost nothing happening for hours on end.

But yeah, I hate it when these journos find the politics 'exciting'. It really is like a game to them.

[Sandydragon]

And why does the fact the popular vote isn't as close make any difference to the validity of the electoral college? Whether you agree with the logic of it or not, that's kind of the point?

Whats the point of the electoral college? Serious question and does it still serve a purpose today given the population changes from what was originally drawn up?

Given its a straight race to be president without any constituency concerns, why shouldn't it be a straight count of the actual votes cast and bypass the EC all together? There was an American academic on the BBC arguing for this earlier and I absolutely see where he is coming from.

[Which Tyler]

According to the Arizona Station News Report.

The remaining vote in Arizona is the election day ballot dropoff. Arizona voters can vote by mail/dropbox or they can vote in person, or they can bring their absentee ballot to the polling station and drop it off there. This third group is what is remaining. In previous years, this was a Democratic leaning group, but it's unlikely that it will be this time. However, (to speculate) I would think that it would be more dem leaning than the actual in-person voters. Hard to say if that group is likely to vote Trump +20, but it sounds unlikely to me.

[Banquo]

Think tump was in a rage after fox called arizona for biden....he said it in speech and you could see the rage on him

Yes, he was raging, but was being kept quiet... right up until Biden addressed the crowd, then they just couldn't hold him back anymore?

These would need to go to court to delay a clear result. If only Pennsylvania and Georgia go to court it doesn't prevent Biden winning.

I'd assume Michigan too?

I'm more thinking of only the closer states going to recount. I think Michigan an Wisconsin are pulling out too big a gap.
Basically, if the victor gets above 50%, it should be safe, unless its to disenfrachise ballots that arrive after 6.00pm yesterday. Even Barr is unlikely to try to get votes thrown out that had arrived at the counting stations before counting started.

Yep you are probably right- Michigan will be a decisive gap in the end. Think Biden has won whatever the challenge tbh.

[Mikey Brown]

Just watched a bit of BBC's rolling coverage. It's insane how openly they talk about the drama and excitement that comes with such a tight election race. You expect that shit in America, but I thought over here we'd at least pretend that this isn't meant to be entertainment?

They're trying to hold onto their viewers despite almost nothing happening for hours on end.

But yeah, I hate it when these journos find the politics 'exciting'. It really is like a game to them.

Yup. I mean I get it, the media frenzy is what keeps this whole disgusting freak show running, but I thought there was meant to be a slightly more subdued facade to things over here.

I guess they've probably all still got the Hunter Biden videos on standby if viewing figures really start to dwindle.

[Son of Mathonwy]

And why does the fact the popular vote isn't as close make any difference to the validity of the electoral college? Whether you agree with the logic of it or not, that's kind of the point?

Whats the point of the electoral college? Serious question and does it still serve a purpose today given the population changes from what was originally drawn up?

Given its a straight race to be president without any constituency concerns, why shouldn't it be a straight count of the actual votes cast and bypass the EC all together? There was an American academic on the BBC arguing for this earlier and I absolutely see where he is coming from.

100% agreed. No sane person (well, one interested in democracy) would set it up this way. FPTP is bad but this is lunacy.