COVID19

[Mellsblue]

U.K. relative deaths edging towards Italy but still below France and Spain. Sweden and Holland still below even Germany despite less draconian social distancing measures. That said, there must be some in Sweden who have a little wee wee in their pants at the trajectory they are on over the last few days.

If you mingle when the virus has a foothold in the population, you will transmit it. You can argue the semantics of social distancing until you are blue in the face, but increased contact = increased transmission. End of. It's fucking pointless tracking daily rates in an effort to argue this law of nature is not universal. The only mitigating factor would be if a population has innate immunity to it. Sweden and Holland will catch up, don't worry.

You still seem to think I’m arguing that social distancing isn’t a good idea. For the umpteenth time, I am not.

[Mellsblue]

U.K. relative deaths edging towards Italy but still below France and Spain. Sweden and Holland still below even Germany despite less draconian social distancing measures. That said, there must be some in Sweden who have a little wee wee in their pants at the trajectory they are on over the last few days.

Comparing countries on per capita deaths would be better.

The graph suggests Germany and Holland are at a similar level whereas, per capita, Holland's deaths are 4.7x Germany's. It makes the USA look worse than it is; China too, of course.
Ignoring tiny territories, Spain and Italy have the worst per capita numbers, followed by Belgium, France, Holland then UK.
Denmark looks like it's doing a great job but in fact, per capita, it's worse than Germany.

There’s plenty of reasons why a per capita isn’t particularly useful. Here’s one reason why:

Basically, it’s log scale, ie how well is a country managing to contain the virus.
The other reason is it drops the US to near the bottom of the chart and they can claim they no longer have a problem. The US is a huge country with pockets of dense population. The govt and their advisers can totally feck up in stopping the virus spread but a per capita graph wouldn’t show that as whilst NY is in a world of trouble, and now the global epicentre, other places within the US aren’t anywhere near as bad.
ie different countries face different issues in combating the spread.

[Digby]

So we want some way of measuring spread mapped over population density, I'm assuming the map could of itself suggest distances between higher population density but on a graph that would need to be considered too

[Mellsblue]

Do me the courtesy of actually reading my old post before you misrepresent it.

A) So we agree that large numbers would allow the government to track them on their phones. That's all that's needed, it doesn't need to be 100%, it's just one of the contact tracing methods.
B) S Korea's experience with SARs is public knowledge. Their approach to Covid 19 was public knowledge. We had time, the situation was more advanced there.
C) Great Britain has no land borders either. We could easily have had special checks for arrivals from high-risk locations or indeed any location.
D) OK, you tell me which repressive methods the Chinese used which made the difference between success and failure. And how did South Korea succeed without them?

So we agree that Europe (large parts of it, at least) and the US will come out of this badly. I'm sure some peer will perform an inquiry several years from now and we'll learn as much from that as we learn from any inquiry, and its advice will save zero lives. And right now, as daily deaths approach 1,000 our government is ignoring what - prima facie - appears to be best practice for dealing with the virus - as advised by the WHO and practiced by South Korea.

This is boring. You are just black and white. If we could follow S Korea we would probably be more successful. Nobody on here is arguing any differently. The argument is that you can’t just pick up stuff from elsewhere and transplant it wholesale and say it will work just as well here. See my attachment, even within England you have different areas under different conditions where the virus is spreading differently. If you think S Korea is so similar to Europe and you can just transplant and have the same success then, as with your views on China, good luck to you. Again, nobody is arguing that S Korea haven’t nailed it, at least for now, just there are various reasons why Europe has struggled.

As for the app argument, the virus transmits at such a rate that even a small percentage of non-compliant people refusing to use an app will seriously undermine its efficacy.

Like I said, I’ll leave you to your cast iron certainty roughly 1/6 of the way through our battle against it, on something even the experts are struggling to get a handle on. Let’s hope you do better with this incisive analysis than you did with your prediction we’d all be dead within weeks.

I'll ask it again:
D) OK, you tell me which repressive methods the Chinese used which made the difference between success and failure. And how did South Korea succeed without them?

Where are you getting this stuff about the app? Don't you understand that the main part of contact tracing is simply asking the patient where they've been and who they were in contact with? The high-tech approach helps but it's just a small part of it.

You're still not getting my old post about the death rates. Can't tell if you're misremembering or just not understanding it.

I’ll say it again, quarantine measures involving martial law, for one. We get annoyed when Derbyshire police use drones to shame people not adhering to rules and Northants police threaten to check people’s shopping backs. China would see that as a monumental step forward in human rights. That’s before they’ve been lying throughout this whole thing and you still want to believe their figures.

The S Koreans have been tracking and tracing via people’s phones, ie with an app, whether new or piggy backed I’m not sure. The problem with simply asking the patient where they’ve been and who they’ve been in contact with is you can have no symptoms for days or even weeks. People will then need to remember who they’ve seen for the last 5-14 days, including those they sat next to in the train, stood next to in the shops etc etc. The issue with even a small number of people not complying is that this virus has such a high R value that it’s spreads very quickly, coupled with no symptoms for so long one non-compliant person can keep spreading whilst asymptomstic and those they infect will and so on and so on.
It also seems that S Korea has a virtually cashless society and has been tracking the population that way, too, ass well as using CCTV to track and trace. All very Orwellian and something probably unacceptable here and possibly illegal.
It also seems that Seoul has now closed bars, nightclubs etc.....

The only old post I remember you putting up about death rates is that we’d all be dead within weeks.

[Mellsblue]

So we want some way of measuring spread mapped over population density, I'm assuming the map could of itself suggest distances between higher population density but on a graph that would need to be considered too

Population density, living conditions, age profiles the list goes on and on. It’s almost as if looking at raw figures and comparing them without context is flawed. You’d also have to have exactly the same methods of data collection and presentation which we don’t. You’d also have to believe the figures for all....

[Digby]

So we want some way of measuring spread mapped over population density, I'm assuming the map could of itself suggest distances between higher population density but on a graph that would need to be considered too

Population density, living conditions, age profiles the list goes on and on. It’s almost as if looking at raw figures and comparing them without context is flawed. You’d also have to have exactly the same methods of data collection and presentation which we don’t. You’d also have to believe the figures for all....

For a while I've been wondering how actual air quality feeds into response to the disease

[Stom]

So we want some way of measuring spread mapped over population density, I'm assuming the map could of itself suggest distances between higher population density but on a graph that would need to be considered too

Population density, living conditions, age profiles the list goes on and on. It’s almost as if looking at raw figures and comparing them without context is flawed. You’d also have to have exactly the same methods of data collection and presentation which we don’t. You’d also have to believe the figures for all....

For a while I've been wondering how actual air quality feeds into response to the disease

It must be a big factor, not least because air quality has a link to asthma and asthma can cause a worse response.

Here, for instance, the deaths are relatively small compared to other countries. That's surely because of low population density and relatively good air quality, rather than the quality of healthcare or ability of people to listen to advice.

As on those latter two points....we're atrocious.

They just had to ban people from going to the forest behind our house, because it was soooo packed full of people. Insane. Luckily we have a path no-one else ever goes on, so we can still take the dog for a walk in peace, but jeez, people.

[Galfon]

Large airports tend to be close to population centres -
https://www.nhs.uk/news/lifestyle-and-e ... ur-health/,

'"People who live within six miles [of an airport] have higher levels of asthma and heart problems,"

Seems like a perfect storm; hopefully after all of this the impact of low-cost convenience air travel is looked at more closely in context of public health.

[Mellsblue]

So we want some way of measuring spread mapped over population density, I'm assuming the map could of itself suggest distances between higher population density but on a graph that would need to be considered too

Population density, living conditions, age profiles the list goes on and on. It’s almost as if looking at raw figures and comparing them without context is flawed. You’d also have to have exactly the same methods of data collection and presentation which we don’t. You’d also have to believe the figures for all....

For a while I've been wondering how actual air quality feeds into response to the disease

Yep. If you live in a city pretty much everything is against you.

[morepork]

U.K. relative deaths edging towards Italy but still below France and Spain. Sweden and Holland still below even Germany despite less draconian social distancing measures. That said, there must be some in Sweden who have a little wee wee in their pants at the trajectory they are on over the last few days.

If you mingle when the virus has a foothold in the population, you will transmit it. You can argue the semantics of social distancing until you are blue in the face, but increased contact = increased transmission. End of. It's fucking pointless tracking daily rates in an effort to argue this law of nature is not universal. The only mitigating factor would be if a population has innate immunity to it. Sweden and Holland will catch up, don't worry.

You still seem to think I’m arguing that social distancing isn’t a good idea. For the umpteenth time, I am not.

Sorry then. You keep harking back to less draconian measures, etc. I'd say you were looking for data that could argue opening up society a bit quicker than projected.

[Mellsblue]

If you mingle when the virus has a foothold in the population, you will transmit it. You can argue the semantics of social distancing until you are blue in the face, but increased contact = increased transmission. End of. It's fucking pointless tracking daily rates in an effort to argue this law of nature is not universal. The only mitigating factor would be if a population has innate immunity to it. Sweden and Holland will catch up, don't worry.

You still seem to think I’m arguing that social distancing isn’t a good idea. For the umpteenth time, I am not.

Sorry then. You keep harking back to less draconian measures, etc. I'd say you were looking for data that could argue opening up society a bit quicker than projected.

No. I’m just interpreting the graph in front of me. Sweden and Holland are clearly below most of the other European countries, despite less stringent measures, but Sweden’s trajectory over the last few days is worrying. I’m just stating the facts I’ve taken from the graph. However, I’ve also consistently stated that drawing any definitive conclusions at this stage is wrong.
For context on my thoughts on social distancing, due to childhood pneumonia which led to Bronchiectasis, I am now in to my fourth week of almost total self-isolation. I’m a big fan of social distancing if not the day to day realities of it.
If I do have an angle, it’s that you can’t just look at total deaths at this stage and different countries actions, and say good job or bad job. Different countries have different advantages and disadvantages.

[Stom]

You still seem to think I’m arguing that social distancing isn’t a good idea. For the umpteenth time, I am not.

Sorry then. You keep harking back to less draconian measures, etc. I'd say you were looking for data that could argue opening up society a bit quicker than projected.

No. I’m just interpreting the graph in front of me. Sweden and Holland are clearly below most of the other European countries, despite less stringent measures, but Sweden’s trajectory over the last few days is worrying. I’m just stating the facts I’ve taken from the graph. However, I’ve also consistently stated that drawing any definitive conclusions at this stage is wrong.
For context on my thoughts on social distancing, due to childhood pneumonia which led to Bronchiectasis, I am now in to my fourth week of almost total self-isolation. I’m a big fan of social distancing if not the day to day realities of it.
If I do have an angle, it’s that you can’t just look at total deaths at this stage and different countries actions, and say good job or bad job. Different countries have different advantages and disadvantages.

As an aside on this...

In the US, they've noticed extremely high levels of cases in places where there are holiday resorts. And in places where there's nothing to do, cases are very limited.

Let's be honest: there's not many reasons to go to rural Sweden are there?

Rural Italy, though? Southern Spain? London, Barcelona, etc...

Now, I can't remember statistics, as I read that article a while ago and can't be arsed to find it again. So take this with a grain of salt, I'm almost as far from an expert as you can get. But at least I'm not OANN.

[Sandydragon]

And it’s folly to trust those stats. If we went by those figures the Belarus is the most successful at responding to this.

[Digby]

Our government is starting to shit itself over the impact to the economy. Word is they weren't expecting anything like the compliance levels on people staying at home, so the numbers not going to work and even going jobless are coming in way over expectations.

Matt Hancock is going to have one hell of a fight on his hands to limit the speed around which they'll seek at least starting a return to normality, and we don't even know what normality might entail yet on a number of fronts

[Sandydragon]

Indeed and a number of scientists are starting to break ranks and suggest that we could return to school and limited work. How anyone is supposed to make sense of this. Some reporting today on allowing under 25s to return to work if they don’t live with vulnerable adults, but how that can be managed or how businesses would operate is another matter.

[Digby]

very likely primary schools will be at the front of any restart, get the youngsters back into school, get those parents travelling for work, and more or less see what happens. though surely they'll be paying close attention to those countries running ahead of us

if they can't get this sorted soon it sounds like nobody has a clue what to do on the finances front, which isn't to say we should simply reopen, just even in a best case scenario we're well and truly in the shit for the long term

[Stom]

very likely primary schools will be at the front of any restart, get the youngsters back into school, get those parents travelling for work, and more or less see what happens. though surely they'll be paying close attention to those countries running ahead of us

if they can't get this sorted soon it sounds like nobody has a clue what to do on the finances front, which isn't to say we should simply reopen, just even in a best case scenario we're well and truly in the shit for the long term

But what about the primary school staff? Often there's a lot of "at risk" people in there. My mum works in a primary school, and all bar one of the women in the office are 55+, and some are therefore potentially at risk.

[Mellsblue]

A few of the teachers unions are suggesting that the min is a few weeks in July to get kids back in the routine before summer hols. Surprisingly, they’re not suggesting they could open during the summer hols if that is when it is deemed safe......

[Digby]

very likely primary schools will be at the front of any restart, get the youngsters back into school, get those parents travelling for work, and more or less see what happens. though surely they'll be paying close attention to those countries running ahead of us

if they can't get this sorted soon it sounds like nobody has a clue what to do on the finances front, which isn't to say we should simply reopen, just even in a best case scenario we're well and truly in the shit for the long term

But what about the primary school staff? Often there's a lot of "at risk" people in there. My mum works in a primary school, and all bar one of the women in the office are 55+, and some are therefore potentially at risk.

I'm going to assume if they're going to start by opening the primary schools they're going to expect the staff will be there. That or they're going to try and enact Lord of the Flies over and over.

Somebody is going to be in the initial move to get things going, and that's just how it is, so someone's mother is going to work for whomever is in the first tranche. Unless we never open anything back up

[Galfon]

A relative success story from EU - Greece's death curve has remained quite flat.They took lockdown action early and decided to police it (not in micro-tracking mode). They knew their Healthcare system did not have much resilience built in.
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... 55436.html

Muslim states, where culturally, busy intermingling doesn't usually happen, appear to have survived the ravages thus far.Hot spots have been linked to religious gatherings.

[morepork]

God help the poor bastards in refugee camps the world over when it starts going through them.

[Galfon]

They are already trying to ship the Calais lot to accomodation centres. Big camps like in Bangladesh look to be on a wing and a prayer.

[Sandydragon]

very likely primary schools will be at the front of any restart, get the youngsters back into school, get those parents travelling for work, and more or less see what happens. though surely they'll be paying close attention to those countries running ahead of us

if they can't get this sorted soon it sounds like nobody has a clue what to do on the finances front, which isn't to say we should simply reopen, just even in a best case scenario we're well and truly in the shit for the long term

But what about the primary school staff? Often there's a lot of "at risk" people in there. My mum works in a primary school, and all bar one of the women in the office are 55+, and some are therefore potentially at risk.

Completely agree.

[Sandydragon]

God help the poor bastards in refugee camps the world over when it starts going through them.

I was thinking the same for the Brazilian favellas and Indian slums. I suppose the average there is lower but it still won’t be pretty.

[Digby]

very likely primary schools will be at the front of any restart, get the youngsters back into school, get those parents travelling for work, and more or less see what happens. though surely they'll be paying close attention to those countries running ahead of us

if they can't get this sorted soon it sounds like nobody has a clue what to do on the finances front, which isn't to say we should simply reopen, just even in a best case scenario we're well and truly in the shit for the long term

But what about the primary school staff? Often there's a lot of "at risk" people in there. My mum works in a primary school, and all bar one of the women in the office are 55+, and some are therefore potentially at risk.

Completely agree.

The likely best we can expect isn't a vaccine delivered en masse it's much more testing. Unless the picture becomes clear from other countries trying to open back up without a vaccine is pie in the sky. Otherwise whatever gets opened first will impact 55 year olds

If someone has a better first port of call to initially open than primary schools then let the cabinet know why they should endorse said alternative before they kick off whatever embryonic plan they have to at least try and reopen