RugbyRebels

Mikey Brown wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:Trump Jnr for 2024 or Ivanka?

Don junior, Ivanka, Eric and then Barron takes us to 2052 if my maths is correct.

Still thinking it's Donald himself for 2024. Had a fleeting thought that he might be bankrupt by then but fat chance, even if he can't escape his creditors I'm sure Putin will bail him out.

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:

Puja wrote:
He's gone from needing 69% of the remaining vote back when it was 85% counted, to needing 60% with 95% counted. It is definitely on.

Puja

That 60% figure looks to be true for N.Carolina and Pennsylvania too.

Definitely for N Carolina, I think PA is in a better position. BBC is reporting:

Trump 3215969
Biden 3051555

A majority of 164414 with 11% of the votes left to be counted. When the vote count was at 75%, Trumps lead was over a million. His lead is rapidly being eroded.

So with another 2% counted, the count is
Trump - 3224130 (+8161)
Biden - 3088475 (+36920)

45081 votes counted, 81.9% are for Biden.

If 1% of the vote is approx 22500 actual votes, then there are 202500 remaining to be counted. If the percentage remains the same then that's approx 165848 for Biden and 36653 for Trump leaving a final score of

Trump - 3252622
Biden - 3254323

That makes it a Biden win by 1701 votes. Its going to be tight!!

Sandydragon wrote:FWIW, I don't think Trump would have been so fixated on Iraq and Bush Jnr was, but I do believe that he would have responded against ISIS and AQ in Afghanistan. I don't think any US president would have ignored 9/11.

Without an Iraq invasion there might not even have been an ISIS.

It's scary to imagine Trump's reaction to 9/11. Although with his attention span and general incompetence it might have come to nothing. Rather than invade Iraq IMO he'd have been more likely to reconcile with Saddam and use Iraq as the entry point in an invasion of Iran. Until Putin told him not to.

Trump dispatches Guiliani and son Eric to Philly to hold a shouty press conference that yelled "FRAUD" over and over again without offering a shred of evidence, or in fact a single cogent sentence.

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:FWIW, I don't think Trump would have been so fixated on Iraq and Bush Jnr was, but I do believe that he would have responded against ISIS and AQ in Afghanistan. I don't think any US president would have ignored 9/11.

Without an Iraq invasion there might not even have been an ISIS.

It's scary to imagine Trump's reaction to 9/11. Although with his attention span and general incompetence it might have come to nothing. Rather than invade Iraq IMO he'd have been more likely to reconcile with Saddam and use Iraq as the entry point in an invasion of Iran. Until Putin told him not to.

Sorry, my bad - teaches me to multi-task. I meant AQ and Taleban not ISIS.

Sandydragon wrote:

Digby wrote:It's not completely messed up, listen the wise and actually rather calm and reasoned words of Paula White




You're almost reminded of Desmond Tutu

I saw that earlier. I think her relationship with sanity is a bit tenuous, although she is by no means the worst American preacher I've heard on that front.

I can't rationalise this belief amongst America's fundamental Christians that Trump is someone they should support. I can only assume that its a life long allegiance t the Republicans no matter who is their president or candidate.

Those taxes won't avoid themselves boss. Plus, screaming about dead babies and immigrants is a fantastic way for getting stupid cunts to loosen the purse strings.

I think Biden's got Georgia. He's just over 18k behind, there are 61k votes left, which means he needs 65% of the remaining votes to win. Those votes are in predominantly blue areas and Clinton took those same number in those areas by a weighted average of 60:40 in 2016. Now, add in that all 61k votes left are postal and the fact that they've been 3:1 democratic so far across the country and that makes those 61k a very heavily weighted sample of the bluest votes via the bluest method.

With luck, that should see him home with a little bit to spare.

Puja

Puja wrote:I think Biden's got Georgia. He's just over 18k behind, there are 61k votes left, which means he needs 65% of the remaining votes to win. Those votes are in predominantly blue areas and Clinton took those same number in those areas by a weighted average of 60:40 in 2016. Now, add in that all 61k votes left are postal and the fact that they've been 3:1 democratic so far across the country and that makes those 61k a very heavily weighted sample of the bluest votes via the bluest method.

With luck, that should see him home with a little bit to spare.

Puja

Hope so.

Puja wrote:I think Biden's got Georgia. He's just over 18k behind, there are 61k votes left, which means he needs 65% of the remaining votes to win. Those votes are in predominantly blue areas and Clinton took those same number in those areas by a weighted average of 60:40 in 2016. Now, add in that all 61k votes left are postal and the fact that they've been 3:1 democratic so far across the country and that makes those 61k a very heavily weighted sample of the bluest votes via the bluest method.

With luck, that should see him home with a little bit to spare.

Puja

Just under 15K now.

Sandydragon wrote:

Puja wrote:I think Biden's got Georgia. He's just over 18k behind, there are 61k votes left, which means he needs 65% of the remaining votes to win. Those votes are in predominantly blue areas and Clinton took those same number in those areas by a weighted average of 60:40 in 2016. Now, add in that all 61k votes left are postal and the fact that they've been 3:1 democratic so far across the country and that makes those 61k a very heavily weighted sample of the bluest votes via the bluest method.

With luck, that should see him home with a little bit to spare.

Puja

Just under 15K now.

Is the wall st journal site accurate- seems more up to date than the Beeb site for Georgia, but behind on PA.

They've called wisconsin too.

Sandydragon wrote:

Puja wrote:I think Biden's got Georgia. He's just over 18k behind, there are 61k votes left, which means he needs 65% of the remaining votes to win. Those votes are in predominantly blue areas and Clinton took those same number in those areas by a weighted average of 60:40 in 2016. Now, add in that all 61k votes left are postal and the fact that they've been 3:1 democratic so far across the country and that makes those 61k a very heavily weighted sample of the bluest votes via the bluest method.

With luck, that should see him home with a little bit to spare.

Puja

Just under 15K now.

Completion rate now up to 98%, I think its unlikely now that Biden will win in Georgia.
Pennsylvania still looking possible if current voting ratios continue.

Sandydragon wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Puja wrote:I think Biden's got Georgia. He's just over 18k behind, there are 61k votes left, which means he needs 65% of the remaining votes to win. Those votes are in predominantly blue areas and Clinton took those same number in those areas by a weighted average of 60:40 in 2016. Now, add in that all 61k votes left are postal and the fact that they've been 3:1 democratic so far across the country and that makes those 61k a very heavily weighted sample of the bluest votes via the bluest method.

With luck, that should see him home with a little bit to spare.

Puja

Just under 15K now.

Completion rate now up to 98%, I think its unlikely now that Biden will win in Georgia.
Pennsylvania still looking possible if current voting ratios continue.

there will be challenges all over the shop. I still think it will come down to Nevada and challenges on Wisconsin and Arizona. Subject to PA obvs

Sandydragon wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Puja wrote:I think Biden's got Georgia. He's just over 18k behind, there are 61k votes left, which means he needs 65% of the remaining votes to win. Those votes are in predominantly blue areas and Clinton took those same number in those areas by a weighted average of 60:40 in 2016. Now, add in that all 61k votes left are postal and the fact that they've been 3:1 democratic so far across the country and that makes those 61k a very heavily weighted sample of the bluest votes via the bluest method.

With luck, that should see him home with a little bit to spare.

Puja

Just under 15K now.

Completion rate now up to 98%, I think its unlikely now that Biden will win in Georgia.
Pennsylvania still looking possible if current voting ratios continue.

That 2% is still over 50k votes, Biden needs to make up 15k, so he needs them to be 32.5:17.5 in his favour or, to put it as a percentage, around 65% of them. Hasn't really changed from my earlier assessment - he's keeping pace with what he needs to do.

Puja

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Mikey Brown wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:Trump Jnr for 2024 or Ivanka?

Don junior, Ivanka, Eric and then Barron takes us to 2052 if my maths is correct.

Still thinking it's Donald himself for 2024. Had a fleeting thought that he might be bankrupt by then but fat chance, even if he can't escape his creditors I'm sure Putin will bail him out.

I think it's gonna be Don Jnr. He's been presenting himself as the heir apparent with his tweeting and his lib-owning books, plus he's been acting as the Cheeto's surrogate on news and press appearances. Ivanka's actually been awfully quiet this election - I suspect she prefers being the power behind the throne to being the brash out front lib-owner.

I don't see Don Snr coming back in 2024. He'll be much more likely to retire to a media empire, still claiming he was robbed, rather than put the fragile ego out there again after losing.

Puja

Going back to ordinary electoral shenanigans, rather than active fascism, this is actually quite clever from the GOP, in a malevolent sort of way: https://www.startribune.com/gop-recruit ... fresh=true

Puja

Banquo wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Puja wrote:I think Biden's got Georgia. He's just over 18k behind, there are 61k votes left, which means he needs 65% of the remaining votes to win. Those votes are in predominantly blue areas and Clinton took those same number in those areas by a weighted average of 60:40 in 2016. Now, add in that all 61k votes left are postal and the fact that they've been 3:1 democratic so far across the country and that makes those 61k a very heavily weighted sample of the bluest votes via the bluest method.

With luck, that should see him home with a little bit to spare.

Puja

Just under 15K now.

Is the wall st journal site accurate- seems more up to date than the Beeb site for Georgia, but behind on PA.

They've called wisconsin too.

I've been mainly following the Guardian because it's my online newspaper of choice, but it actually seems quite quick and accurate. Quicker than CNN, tbh, which hasn't given the latest update on Georgia yet: Trump is ahead by about 0.3% of votes, with about 1.8% to be counted...

And, perhaps even more importantly, both Senate seats look likely to go to a run-off. And if Trump is a lame duck president while that race is ongoing, is he going to bother mobilizing his base if it doesn't impact him? He might not, so the Dems have a chance to win those 2 seats and with them control of the Senate.

Now that would be important.

Puja wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Mikey Brown wrote: Don junior, Ivanka, Eric and then Barron takes us to 2052 if my maths is correct.

Still thinking it's Donald himself for 2024. Had a fleeting thought that he might be bankrupt by then but fat chance, even if he can't escape his creditors I'm sure Putin will bail him out.

I think it's gonna be Don Jnr. He's been presenting himself as the heir apparent with his tweeting and his lib-owning books, plus he's been acting as the Cheeto's surrogate on news and press appearances. Ivanka's actually been awfully quiet this election - I suspect she prefers being the power behind the throne to being the brash out front lib-owner.

I don't see Don Snr coming back in 2024. He'll be much more likely to retire to a media empire, still claiming he was robbed, rather than put the fragile ego out there again after losing.

Puja

Will either of them be able to run if Trump is indicted and Jr. is also, therefore, in trouble?

Puja wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Mikey Brown wrote: Don junior, Ivanka, Eric and then Barron takes us to 2052 if my maths is correct.

Still thinking it's Donald himself for 2024. Had a fleeting thought that he might be bankrupt by then but fat chance, even if he can't escape his creditors I'm sure Putin will bail him out.

I think it's gonna be Don Jnr. He's been presenting himself as the heir apparent with his tweeting and his lib-owning books, plus he's been acting as the Cheeto's surrogate on news and press appearances. Ivanka's actually been awfully quiet this election - I suspect she prefers being the power behind the throne to being the brash out front lib-owner.

I don't see Don Snr coming back in 2024. He'll be much more likely to retire to a media empire, still claiming he was robbed, rather than put the fragile ego out there again after losing.

Puja

Don't say those things man. Not now.

Puja wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Mikey Brown wrote: Don junior, Ivanka, Eric and then Barron takes us to 2052 if my maths is correct.

Still thinking it's Donald himself for 2024. Had a fleeting thought that he might be bankrupt by then but fat chance, even if he can't escape his creditors I'm sure Putin will bail him out.

I think it's gonna be Don Jnr. He's been presenting himself as the heir apparent with his tweeting and his lib-owning books, plus he's been acting as the Cheeto's surrogate on news and press appearances. Ivanka's actually been awfully quiet this election - I suspect she prefers being the power behind the throne to being the brash out front lib-owner.

I don't see Don Snr coming back in 2024. He'll be much more likely to retire to a media empire, still claiming he was robbed, rather than put the fragile ego out there again after losing.

Puja

You think he wouldn't enjoy being a LOSER?

You may be right. I think Snr is the one with the big, vote-attracting personality, but then I have studiously avoided paying any attention to his progeny so I have little to go on, in all honesty.

morepork wrote:

Puja wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote: Still thinking it's Donald himself for 2024. Had a fleeting thought that he might be bankrupt by then but fat chance, even if he can't escape his creditors I'm sure Putin will bail him out.

I think it's gonna be Don Jnr. He's been presenting himself as the heir apparent with his tweeting and his lib-owning books, plus he's been acting as the Cheeto's surrogate on news and press appearances. Ivanka's actually been awfully quiet this election - I suspect she prefers being the power behind the throne to being the brash out front lib-owner.

I don't see Don Snr coming back in 2024. He'll be much more likely to retire to a media empire, still claiming he was robbed, rather than put the fragile ego out there again after losing.

Puja

Don't say those things man. Not now.

And on that note, the last of the rural counties have come in from Nevada and Biden has actually expanded his lead to 11k. All that's left there is the area around Las Vegas, which has been coming back solidly democrat so far.

Interesting note - it leaves Fox et al with a fun conundrum. Cause Nevada's likely to get called for Biden imminently and, with them having called Arizona, that means they have to call Biden the winner. However, Arizona's still in play - it's not massively likely to go back to Trump, but it's far from a sure thing. So, do they stick with their confidence in their original decision to give Arizona to Biden and call him the President-Elect, do they recant their call on Arizona, or do they just avoid talking about Nevada until more Arizona votes come in?

Puja

Pennsylvania reckons they'll have an answer tonight. Biden is 100k behind, but there are 550k ballots remaining to be counted, mostly mail-in and from cities. Biden now needs under 60% of the remaining votes. I'm not sure the answer tonight is going to make Trump happy.

I'm starting to believe.

Puja

Puja wrote:Pennsylvania reckons they'll have an answer tonight. Biden is 100k behind, but there are 550k ballots remaining to be counted, mostly mail-in and from cities. Biden now needs under 60% of the remaining votes. I'm not sure the answer tonight is going to make Trump happy.

I'm starting to believe.

Puja

Stop it. It’s the hope that kills.

Georgia looks like Trump will just about hold on to me.

And Georgia is the most important as that’s where those senate races are...

Stom wrote:

Puja wrote:Pennsylvania reckons they'll have an answer tonight. Biden is 100k behind, but there are 550k ballots remaining to be counted, mostly mail-in and from cities. Biden now needs under 60% of the remaining votes. I'm not sure the answer tonight is going to make Trump happy.

I'm starting to believe.

Puja

Stop it. It’s the hope that kills.

Georgia looks like Trump will just about hold on to me.

And Georgia is the most important as that’s where those senate races are...

Now you know what it’s like being a Welsh rugby supporter!

Puja wrote:Pennsylvania reckons they'll have an answer tonight. Biden is 100k behind, but there are 550k ballots remaining to be counted, mostly mail-in and from cities. Biden now needs under 60% of the remaining votes. I'm not sure the answer tonight is going to make Trump happy.

I'm starting to believe.

Puja

Hopefully he can hang onto Arizona too and really make it conclusive.