RugbyRebels

Sandydragon wrote:

Puja wrote:Well played MSNBC. Cut Trump off about 35 seconds into his speech, emphasised that what he was saying was complete garbage, moved onto a different interview. It's what all of them should be doing.



Puja

That is brilliant. Good on them for having the moral courage to do that.

Easy to do it when they can be relatively confident he won't be continuing as president.

CNN have long been highly critical of Trump, too much I'd suggest because whilst they're not wrong they're also so often editorialising rather than doing the news

Margin for Trump in Georgia is now less than 500... very tight, with 1% of votes still remaining to be counted. Whatever the 'final' result, I expect there'll be a recount.

Zhivago wrote:Margin for Trump in Georgia is now less than 500... very tight, with 1% of votes still remaining to be counted. Whatever the 'final' result, I expect there'll be a recount.

Has to be really, it could come down to a few hundred votes so no arguments on that one.

Zhivago wrote:Margin for Trump in Georgia is now less than 500... very tight, with 1% of votes still remaining to be counted. Whatever the 'final' result, I expect there'll be a recount.

And about 2000 votes difference in Pennsylvania which I think Biden will overhaul today (I assume they have stopped counting for the night)

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:Margin for Trump in Georgia is now less than 500... very tight, with 1% of votes still remaining to be counted. Whatever the 'final' result, I expect there'll be a recount.

And about 2000 votes difference in Pennsylvania which I think Biden will overhaul today (I assume they have stopped counting for the night)

Yeah, potentially Biden could get Georgia and Pennsylvania, that would hopefully put an end to any doubt.

Zhivago wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:Margin for Trump in Georgia is now less than 500... very tight, with 1% of votes still remaining to be counted. Whatever the 'final' result, I expect there'll be a recount.

And about 2000 votes difference in Pennsylvania which I think Biden will overhaul today (I assume they have stopped counting for the night)

Yeah, potentially Biden could get Georgia and Pennsylvania, that would hopefully put an end to any doubt.

My fervent hope is that if he does take Pennsylvania, Arizona and Nevada, then he is well past 270 and Trump's argument for being cheated is made even less credible. If he take Georgia as well then its extra gravy, although how that ends up after a recount is another matter as I think it will need a recount regardless.

just for comparison here's some electoral votes of decisive winners of the past:

Obama 2008 - 365
Clinton 1996 - 379
Bush Sr 1988 - 426
Reagan 1984 - 525
Reagan 1980 - 489
Nixon 1972 - 520
LBJ 1964 - 486

With Georgia and Pennsylvania, Biden would go up to 306, which is similar to what Trump got 4 years ago with 304. If he wins with only 270, it'll be the narrowest victory ever. Even Bush Jr got more, with 271 in 2000.

Georgia turns blue. It won’t even be close on college votes in the end methinks. It’s going to go postal

AP has Biden ahead in Georgia now.

Banquo wrote:Georgia turns blue. It won’t even be close on college votes in the end methinks. It’s going to go postal

Beat me to it

Odds on now for Biden to get 306 EC votes; possibly even more if NC's late counting follows the other states.
Cockwomble declared his 304 EC votes in 2016 a "landslide"

He's ahead in both Georgia and Nevada where the only ballots to return are heavily Democratic mail ballots - there's an awfully good case for calling both those states as projected Biden right now, frankly a hell of a lot better than the case for calling Arizona was.

I wonder which newsroom is going to break first and declare the election done?

Puja

Puja wrote:He's ahead in both Georgia and Nevada where the only ballots to return are heavily Democratic mail ballots - there's an awfully good case for calling both those states as projected Biden right now, frankly a hell of a lot better than the case for calling Arizona was.

I wonder which newsroom is going to break first and declare the election done?

Puja

Hopefully Fox News [emoji16]

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk

WaspInWales wrote:

Puja wrote:He's ahead in both Georgia and Nevada where the only ballots to return are heavily Democratic mail ballots - there's an awfully good case for calling both those states as projected Biden right now, frankly a hell of a lot better than the case for calling Arizona was.

I wonder which newsroom is going to break first and declare the election done?

Puja

Hopefully Fox News [emoji16]

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk

I actually think their "Decision Room" team may have saved a lot of furore. At the point at which Trump was clearly winning Florida, everything was turning red, I think they were building up the narrative of him as the presumptive winner in a red wave and getting ready to take action from there. Arizona being called for Biden at that early point completely threw that off the tracks and meant the race felt more competitive.

Given the fact that Arizona has turned out to clearly still be competitive, I wonder whether it wasn't an actual ploy by the Decision Room to interrupt Trump's momentum and prevent him from trying to steal the election. I think Biden will end up winning Arizona when all's told, but I don't see how they can possibly have been certain about it back then, considering how close it's gotten in the end.

Puja

Here's one for you. The demographic where Trump has failed to extend his support and even seen some regression is that much maligned group of white men, Trump might well have added more white women into his tally this time around even with his locking of children in cages and his 1st debate appalling behaviour they've stuck with him in places Trump has won more than expected (not perhaps it seems so much in places Trump is losing)

Still, all our thanks no doubt go to those brave white men. Nobody seems to know why that's the group where support is cleaving away, presently some guesses around calling the military losers, former well known generals speaking out to create relevant role models of white men speaking against Donny.

Puja wrote:

WaspInWales wrote:

Puja wrote:He's ahead in both Georgia and Nevada where the only ballots to return are heavily Democratic mail ballots - there's an awfully good case for calling both those states as projected Biden right now, frankly a hell of a lot better than the case for calling Arizona was.

I wonder which newsroom is going to break first and declare the election done?

Puja

Hopefully Fox News [emoji16]

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk

I actually think their "Decision Room" team may have saved a lot of furore. At the point at which Trump was clearly winning Florida, everything was turning red, I think they were building up the narrative of him as the presumptive winner in a red wave and getting ready to take action from there. Arizona being called for Biden at that early point completely threw that off the tracks and meant the race felt more competitive.

Given the fact that Arizona has turned out to clearly still be competitive, I wonder whether it wasn't an actual ploy by the Decision Room to interrupt Trump's momentum and prevent him from trying to steal the election. I think Biden will end up winning Arizona when all's told, but I don't see how they can possibly have been certain about it back then, considering how close it's gotten in the end.

Puja

I was reading a piece about that and the Fox analyst who called it had some pretty strong reasons for doing so. Biden is 46K votes up there and looking at the Guardian graphic of which counties are left to finish, the biggest is basically Phoenix where Biden holds a good lead. It might have been an early call but there was a lot of logic behind it.

Meanwhile Trumps lead in Pennsylvania is down to 18K and shrinking continually. Again, its strong blue areas which have the lowest completion rates at the moment so that should turn blue if the current trend continues.

I await Trumps next tweet/ press rant with interest.

Sandydragon wrote:

Puja wrote:

WaspInWales wrote:Hopefully Fox News [emoji16]

Sent from my SM-N960F using Tapatalk

I actually think their "Decision Room" team may have saved a lot of furore. At the point at which Trump was clearly winning Florida, everything was turning red, I think they were building up the narrative of him as the presumptive winner in a red wave and getting ready to take action from there. Arizona being called for Biden at that early point completely threw that off the tracks and meant the race felt more competitive.

Given the fact that Arizona has turned out to clearly still be competitive, I wonder whether it wasn't an actual ploy by the Decision Room to interrupt Trump's momentum and prevent him from trying to steal the election. I think Biden will end up winning Arizona when all's told, but I don't see how they can possibly have been certain about it back then, considering how close it's gotten in the end.

Puja

I was reading a piece about that and the Fox analyst who called it had some pretty strong reasons for doing so. Biden is 46K votes up there and looking at the Guardian graphic of which counties are left to finish, the biggest is basically Phoenix where Biden holds a good lead. It might have been an early call but there was a lot of logic behind it.

Meanwhile Trumps lead in Pennsylvania is down to 18K and shrinking continually. Again, its strong blue areas which have the lowest completion rates at the moment so that should turn blue if the current trend continues.

I await Trumps next tweet/ press rant with interest.

Yeah, I read the same one! Like I said, I think he will get it and it will turn out to be right, but it was a ballsy call to say with 100% certainty that the state was finished as a contest and it would be significantly less so to call Nevada or Georgia at this point, which they're pointedly not doing.

Puja

Digby wrote:Here's one for you. The demographic where Trump has failed to extend his support and even seen some regression is that much maligned group of white men, Trump might well have added more white women into his tally this time around even with his locking of children in cages and his 1st debate appalling behaviour they've stuck with him in places Trump has won more than expected (not perhaps it seems so much in places Trump is losing)

Still, all our thanks no doubt go to those brave white men. Nobody seems to know why that's the group where support is cleaving away, presently some guesses around calling the military losers, former well known generals speaking out to create relevant role models of white men speaking against Donny.

Is it not quite clearly city dwellers?

So we're not talking farmers and laborers but office workers and so on...

The map of voting based upon population density completely apes the voting over here in Hungary, in the UK, in Poland, India, Philippines, Brazil, Belarus, Turkey...

In other words, the world's fascists.

We need done of them and done of enablers.

In even better news, it's looking like the senate races in Georgia and N.Carol are going to a runoff, which would be most likely without Trump's support (can you imagine him campaigning when it doesn't benefit him?), so the Dems could take control of the Senate...

It's going to be close.

Puja wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Puja wrote:
I actually think their "Decision Room" team may have saved a lot of furore. At the point at which Trump was clearly winning Florida, everything was turning red, I think they were building up the narrative of him as the presumptive winner in a red wave and getting ready to take action from there. Arizona being called for Biden at that early point completely threw that off the tracks and meant the race felt more competitive.

Given the fact that Arizona has turned out to clearly still be competitive, I wonder whether it wasn't an actual ploy by the Decision Room to interrupt Trump's momentum and prevent him from trying to steal the election. I think Biden will end up winning Arizona when all's told, but I don't see how they can possibly have been certain about it back then, considering how close it's gotten in the end.

Puja

I was reading a piece about that and the Fox analyst who called it had some pretty strong reasons for doing so. Biden is 46K votes up there and looking at the Guardian graphic of which counties are left to finish, the biggest is basically Phoenix where Biden holds a good lead. It might have been an early call but there was a lot of logic behind it.

Meanwhile Trumps lead in Pennsylvania is down to 18K and shrinking continually. Again, its strong blue areas which have the lowest completion rates at the moment so that should turn blue if the current trend continues.

I await Trumps next tweet/ press rant with interest.

Yeah, I read the same one! Like I said, I think he will get it and it will turn out to be right, but it was a ballsy call to say with 100% certainty that the state was finished as a contest and it would be significantly less so to call Nevada or Georgia at this point, which they're pointedly not doing.

Puja

If the election hinges on a recount in Georgia, would they call it or wait for the recount to be completed?

Puja

Sandydragon wrote:

Puja wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:
I was reading a piece about that and the Fox analyst who called it had some pretty strong reasons for doing so. Biden is 46K votes up there and looking at the Guardian graphic of which counties are left to finish, the biggest is basically Phoenix where Biden holds a good lead. It might have been an early call but there was a lot of logic behind it.

Meanwhile Trumps lead in Pennsylvania is down to 18K and shrinking continually. Again, its strong blue areas which have the lowest completion rates at the moment so that should turn blue if the current trend continues.

I await Trumps next tweet/ press rant with interest.

Yeah, I read the same one! Like I said, I think he will get it and it will turn out to be right, but it was a ballsy call to say with 100% certainty that the state was finished as a contest and it would be significantly less so to call Nevada or Georgia at this point, which they're pointedly not doing.

Puja

If the election hinges on a recount in Georgia, would they call it or wait for the recount to be completed?

Most places are happy to call Wisconsin and that's likely to have a recount. Biden is 1,000 votes up in Georgia and there's still 10k mail votes to go - assuming he wins them 65:35 (which is actually under his current rate), he ends up winning by 4,000 votes - Trump can recount as he likes, but no recount in recent Yank history has changed the result by more than a thousand and most don't even shift it by more than a couple of hundred.

Puja

Puja wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Puja wrote:
Yeah, I read the same one! Like I said, I think he will get it and it will turn out to be right, but it was a ballsy call to say with 100% certainty that the state was finished as a contest and it would be significantly less so to call Nevada or Georgia at this point, which they're pointedly not doing.

Puja

If the election hinges on a recount in Georgia, would they call it or wait for the recount to be completed?

Most places are happy to call Wisconsin and that's likely to have a recount. Biden is 1,000 votes up in Georgia and there's still 10k mail votes to go - assuming he wins them 65:35 (which is actually under his current rate), he ends up winning by 4,000 votes - Trump can recount as he likes, but no recount in recent Yank history has changed the result by more than a thousand and most don't even shift it by more than a couple of hundred.

Puja

I suppose it will depend largely on how big the margin is at the end. If under a thousand there may be a few jitters but if Biden does get a 4K majority then it’s fairly clear.

Recounts won't change things (unless the gap is down below ~200)
Deciding which ballots count, may. The late counts are safe, and the late arrivals should be and probably some other arguements (ticked instead of crossed, maybe circled...)

Bannon thrown off twatter for saying Fauci should be beheaded

Some hilarious stuff online.....the conversation between the judge and the trump lawyer "a non zero number"