Statistic of the Day

[Lizard]

England does a much better job of integrating its immigrant population (kinda surprising given Brexit etc.) For instance, NZ-born immigrants make up about 0.12% of the UK population - mostly in England – which means that Kiwis are about 100 times more common in the England rugby team (at 11.5%) than in England generally.

Overall, the team is 28.8% foreign-born. In the general population it's 16.5%, 2.7% of whom were born elsewhere in UK (2011 census)

This combines the SA squad (as per Wikipedia) with the Baabaa's squad (as per RU website).

England: Beaumont, Brown, Cipriani, Cowan-Dickie, Curry, Daly, Earl, Ellis, Farrell, Ford, Francis, Genge, George, Hill, Isiekwe, Itoje, Launchbury, Lawrence, Lozowski, Marler, May, McGuigan, McNally, Mercer, Robshaw, Robson, Simmonds, Sinckler, Singleton, Slade, Spencer, Stooke, Trinder, Williams, Willis, Wilson, Youngs (37/52 = 71.2%)

New Zealand: Harrison, Shields, Solomona, Te’o, M. Vunipola, Woodward (6/52 = 11.5%. )

Fiji: Cokanasiga, Hughes (2/52 = 3.8)

South Africa: Ross, Schonert (2/52 = 3.8)

Australia: B. Vunipola (1/52 = 1.9%)

France: Redpath (son of Scottish international Bryan) (1/52 = 1.9%)

Germany: Hill (1/52 = 1.9%)

Hong Kong: Earle (1/52 = 1.9%)

Philippines: Smith (1/52 = 1.9%)

[Lizard]

And now France. The effect of the “French passports only” policy is obvious, with just 4 players not born in France.

France: Babillot, Baille, Bastareaud, Belleau, Ben Arous, Bonneval, Bourgarit, Chat, Doumayrou, Fall, Fickou, Fofana, Gabrillagues, Galletier, Gourdon, Grosso, Lambey, Lamerat, Lapandry, Maestri, Medard , Parra, Pelissie, Plisson, Sanconnie, Serin, Slimani, Thomas (87.5%)

Cameroon: Priso (3.13%)

Guinea-Bissau: Gomes Sa (3.13%)

New Zealand: Atonio (3.13%)

SA: Le Roux (3.13%)

[Lizard]

Barbarians International results

England will no doubt be trotting out the “Festival” excuse for a poor showing this morning. But in reality, a top test side should not lose that badly to a scratch invitational team, even if missing a few regulars. Mind you, they are far from alone in losing.

Here are the Baabaas’ last 10 years’ results* against the major test nations (6N, TRC, Lions) - wins in bold:

27.05.2018: 63 – 45 England
04.11.2017: 22 - 31 v All Blacks
28.10.2017: 28 – 31 v Wallabies
28.05.2017: 14 – 28 v England
05.11.2016: 31 – 31 v Springboks
21.11.2015: 31 – 49 v Pumas
01.06.2015: 12 – 73 v England
28.05.2015: 22 – 21 v Ireland
01.11.2014: 36 – 40 v Wallabies
01.06.2014: 39 – 28 England
01.06.2013: 12 – 40 v Lions
26.05.2013: 12 – 40 v England
02.06.2012: 21 – 30 v Wales**
29.05.2012: 29 – 28 v Ireland **
27.05.2012: 26 – 57 v England**
26.11.2011: 11 – 60 v Wallabies
04.06.2011: 31 – 28 v Wales
29.05.2011: 38 – 32 v England
04.12.2010: 26 – 20 v Springboks
04.06.2010: 29 – 23 v Ireland
30.05.2010: 26 – 35 v England
05.12.2009: 25 – 18 v All Blacks
06.06.2009: 7 – 55 v Wallabies
30.05.2009: 33 – 26 v England
03.12.2008: 11 – 18 v Wallabies
01.06.2008: 14 – 17 v England

Total: played 26, won 10 (38.5%), lost 15 (57.7%), drew 1 (3.8%)
v Ireland: played 3, won 3 (100.0%)
v Springboks: played 2, won 1 (50.0%), lost 1 (50.0%)
v Wales: played 2, won 1 (50.0%), lost 1 (50.0%)
v All Blacks: played 2, won 1 (50.0%), lost 1 (50.0%)
v England: played 10, won 4 (40.0%), lost 6 (60.0%)
v Pumas: played 1, lost 1 (100.0%)
v Lions: played 1, lost 1 (100.0%)
v Wallabies: played 5, lost 5 (100.0%)


So arguably only Australia seem to take this fixture seriously. It’s also odd they haven’t played Scotland since 2006.


*From Barbarians’ website. I’ve not reviewed squads to see how close to full strength they were. Feel free to comment on this.
**In these 3 matches played over 7 days, the Baabaas used only 32 players. 7 played in all 3, 20 played 2 and only 5 featured only once

[Lizard]

Q: Is Ashton’s hat-trick against the Barbarians a big deal or not?
A: Not really

It’s not really fair to compare Barbarians games to test matches but fuck it, let’s do it anyway.

Here are the last 12 matches (i.e. going back 10 completed years) between 6N/TRC teams in which players from one side have scored 9 or more tries.* Every single one has featured at least one multiple try-scorer – 25 players in total or 2.1 per match. 8 featured more than one multiple try-scorer (0.67/game). The 12 matches also yielded 5 hat-tricks (0.42/game ) although 2 were in 1 match.

So you can say with some confidence that when you are playing against a team shit enough to give up 9 tries, you can practically guarantee that at least one player, and probably at least 2, will score more than one try. You should also not be surprised if someone gets a hat-trick, although if they do they probably will not be the only multiple try-scorer in the match.

11 Feb 2017: Ire v Ita (Stander & Gilroy 3 each; Earls 2)
12 Nov 2016: NZ v Ita (Fekitoa 2)
8 Oct 2016: NZ v SA (Dagg, Perenara, B. Barrett 2 each)
19 Mar 2016: Wal v Ita (Moriarty 2)
12 Mar 2016: Ire v Ita (Heaslip 2)
17 Oct 2015: NZ v Fra (J. Savea 3; Kerr-Barlow 2)
23 June 2012: NZ v Ire (Cane, Williams 2 each)
12 June 2010: NZ v Ire (C. Smith, Cowan, S. Whitelock 2 each)
9 Aug 2008: SA v Arg (Pieterson, van Niekerk 2 each)
8 Sep 2007: NZ v Ire (Howlett 3; Collins, McCaw, Sivivatu 2 each)
4 Aug 2007: Eng v Wal (Easter 3, Perry 2)
9 Jun 2007: NZ v Fra (Rokocoko 2)


*SA scored 9 tries v Arg on 17 Aug 2013 but only 8 tries were scored by players. There was 1 penalty try

[Lizard]

A quick one today.

England made its first tour to the Southern Hemisphere in 1963 and continued sporadically through the rest of the amateur era. Tours have been more or less annual since professionalism other than RWC years and some Lions years.

Overall, England has made 36 tours (counting each country visited as a separate tour, even if visited on the same trip). The results have been:
In 15 one-off tests: 8 losses; 7 wins
In 18 two-test series: 10 whitewashes; 1 one win and a draw; 5 shared series; 2 clean sweeps
In 3 three-test series: 1 whitewash; 1 two wins and a draw; one clean sweep.

That's 19 whitewashes (52.8%), 10 clean sweeps (27.8%), and 7 mixed results (19.4%).

[Lizard]

Aussie squad birthplaces

Unsurprisingly for such an open, multicultural and non-racist place, the Wallabies have 2 foreign-born players for every 3 "natives."

Aust: Alaalatoa, Beale, Coleman, Enever, Foley, Hanigan, Hodge, Hooper, Kepu, Maddocks, McCalman, McMahon, Meakes, Perese, Philip, Phipps, Polota-Nau, Powell, Robertson, Simmons, Sio (21/35 = 60.0%)

NZ: Faulkner, Hunt, Rona, Tui, Uelese (5/35 = 14.3%)

Fiji: Kerevi, Koroibete, Kuridrani, Speight (4/35 = 11.4%)

Tonga: Timani, Tupou (2/35 = 5.7%)

PNG: Genia (2.9%)

Saudi Arabia: Moore (2.9%)

SA: Wright (2.9%)

[Lizard]

There’s a bit of talk about Jordie Barrett joining his brothers Beauden and Scott as All Blacks.

There have been three sets of three brothers to become All Blacks, but of them there’s only one set in which all three were capped in test matches. Three brothers have never appeared together for the All Blacks in the same match (test or uncapped).

Whitelock
George obtained his solitary All Blacks jersey, cap and try off the bench against Italy in 2009. The following year, Sam won the first of his 84 caps to date. Luke had a single appearance off the bench v Japan in 2013, in a match not featuring Sam.

Nichols
Harry “Ginger” Nichols had an odd career. His first All Black’s match was in the first Springboks test in 1921 in which he played so well the selectors literally gave him a medal as the best back. However he was replaced for the 2nd test and was never capped again, despite touring NSW with the All Blacks in 1922 and facing them at home in 1923. (Ironically, his four matches v NSW are now regarded by Australia as tests with caps awarded retrospectively). Marcus Nicholls debuted alongside Harry in 1921. His career was far more distinguished including 10 tests and 41 other matches (3 with Harry) including the Invincibles tour in 1924-4, 1928 tour to SA and the 1930 Lions. Oldest brother Harold Nichols (known as Doc) played with Ginger in a single match against NSW in 1923 (again, regarded by the ARU as a test)

Brownlie
The youngest brother, Jack, debuted (and bowed out) in 1921 against one the bullshit NSW teams later capped as Wallabies. Maurice was first picked against the same oppo in 1922 and went on to be an Invincible and 1928 tourist, earning 8 caps and playing 53 other matches. Eldest brother Cyril was first picked in warm-up/trial games in 1924 ahead of the Invincibles tour (on which he became the first player to be sent off in a test). He too played through until the 1928 African tour and picked up 3 caps (all with Maurice) and 28 match jumpers (19 with Maurice) on the way.

Just to update - last year the Barretts were the first three brothers to all appear in the same test, then the first three to all be on the field simultaneously in a test. This weekend they will become the first to all start a test together.

16 June 2017 v Samoa: Beauden 10 (subbed off 59th minute, before Jordie got on), Scott 19 (subbed on 50th minute), Jordie 23 (on 63rd minute)
8 July 2017 v Lions: Beauden 10, Jordie 15, Scott 19 (77th minute)

[Lizard]

And to round it off, I think this is a comprehensive list of all sets of three brothers to play in the same test together so far (corrections welcome):

Alec, Jim and Ninian Finlay all played for Scotland v England in 1875. It was slightly easier in those days as 20 players were allowed on the field at once. This was James’s last cap (having debuted in the first ever test) and both his brothers’ first caps.

Bruno, Rino and Nello Francescato lined up at 11, 12 and 13 respectively for Italy v Romania in 1981. Their test careers overlapped for 4 years but this was their only appearance together, in Bruno’s last test. Their brother Ivan was also capped but only after the other 3 had finished their test careers.

Henry (8), Alesana (11) and Freddie (12) Tuilagi all started together twice (the current record) against Fiji and Samoa in 2002. The test careers of other combinations of 3 Tuilagi's overlapped but none of them ever all played in the same match.

Honourable mention to the Ella brothers who came close. Both Gary and Glen were capped alongside Mark, but never all three at the same time. In 1982 (in the days when subs were only permitted on doctor's orders) Glen was twice unused off the bench against the All Blacks while his brothers both started.

[Lizard]

England at altitude

England has played SA in SA 13 times, for 9 losses, 3 wins and a draw. Of those:

At altitude: played 8, lost 5, won 3
At sea level: played 5, lost 4, drawn 1

So, arguably, England actually perform best at altitude! On the other hand, 2 of the 3 wins were in 1984 when SA was playing very few tests (and fewer against top oppo) due to hideous racism. The most recent was in 2000. Since then they’ve lost 4 (3 at altitude, 1 sea-level) and drawn 1 (sea-level)

[Lizard]

France in NZ, by tour
Black - NZ win series
Blue - France win series
Red - series drawn


1961: NZ 3, Fra 0 (15 match tour, including 1 tour game plus a test in Aust.)
1968: NZ 3, Fra 0 (14 match tour, including a test in Aust.)
1979: NZ 1, Fra 1 (10 match tour including matches v Fiji (capped by Fiji only) & Tahiti (uncapped))
1984: NZ 2, Fra 0 (8 match tour)
1986: NZ 1, Fra 0 (8 match tour: 1 match + 2 tests in Argentina; 2+1 in Aust)
1987: NZ 1, Fra 0 (RWC1987 final)
1989: NZ 2, Fra 0 (8 match tour)
1994: NZ 0, Fra 2 (10 match tour including 1 match + 1 test in Canada)
1999: NZ 1, Fra 0 (4 match including tests v Samoa and Tonga)
2001: NZ 1, Fra 0 (3 match tour, incl. 2 tests v SA)
2003: NZ 1, Fra 0 (3 match tour, incl. 2 tests v Arg)
2007: NZ 2, Fra 0
2009: NZ 1, Fra 1 (+ 1 test v Aust)
2011: NZ 2, Fra 0(RWC2011 pool and final)
2013: NZ 3, Fra 0 (4 match tour)
2018: NZ 1, Fra 0, 2 to play

*RWC1987 final
**RWC2011 pool and final

[rowan]

94 was a great series, culminating in the match-winning "try from the end of the world" in the second test, when practically every player in the French team handled in a length-of-the-field movement. That remains the only series win for a European nation on NZ soil. Of course, the only other nations to have won series' in NZ are Australia and SA (twice and once, respectively, I believe).

In fact, I was just chatting about that series with an American friend yesterday, or more specifically the hulking Moroccan Berber who played a starring role for the French - namely Abdel Benazzi. He actually played one test for his home country before being snapped up by Les Bleus, in the days when you could still do that sort of thing and get away with it. His brother went on to captain Morocco for some years.

[Lizard]

94 was a great series, culminating in the match-winning "try from the end of the world" in the second test, when practically every player in the French team handled in a length-of-the-field movement. That remains the only series win for a European nation on NZ soil. Of course, the only other nations to have won series' in NZ are Australia and SA (twice and once, respectively, I believe).

In fact, I was just chatting about that series with an American friend yesterday, or more specifically the hulking Moroccan Berber who played a starring role for the French - namely Abdel Benazzi. He actually played one test for his home country before being snapped up by Les Bleus, in the days when you could still do that sort of thing and get away with it. His brother went on to captain Morocco for some years.

Words carefully selected to exclude the 1971 Lions, I presume (on one, if not two, counts).

[rowan]

This thread is about statistics, which includes records, and the words were selected entirely to convey the nature of that record.

Btw, maybe I'm missing something here, but the All Blacks played France twice in 1986, getting smashed in the second test in Nantes.

Oh, wait, these are all tours to NZ. That explains it...

[scuzzaman]

France in NZ, by tour
Black - NZ win series
Blue - France win series
Red - series drawn


1961: NZ 3, Fra 0 (15 match tour, including 1 tour game plus a test in Aust.)
1968: NZ 3, Fra 0 (14 match tour, including a test in Aust.)
1979: NZ 1, Fra 1 (10 match tour including matches v Fiji (capped by Fiji only) & Tahiti (uncapped))
1984: NZ 2, Fra 0 (8 match tour)
1986: NZ 1, Fra 0 (8 match tour: 1 match + 2 tests in Argentina; 2+1 in Aust)
1987: NZ 1, Fra 0 (RWC1987 final)
1989: NZ 2, Fra 0 (8 match tour)
1994: NZ 0, Fra 2 (10 match tour including 1 match + 1 test in Canada)
1999: NZ 1, Fra 0 (4 match including tests v Samoa and Tonga)
2001: NZ 1, Fra 0 (3 match tour, incl. 2 tests v SA)
2003: NZ 1, Fra 0 (3 match tour, incl. 2 tests v Arg)
2007: NZ 2, Fra 0
2009: NZ 1, Fra 1 (+ 1 test v Aust)
2011: NZ 2, Fra 0(RWC2011 pool and final)
2013: NZ 3, Fra 0 (4 match tour)
2018: NZ 1, Fra 2, 2 to play

*RWC1987 final
**RWC2011 pool and final

Something not quite right here?

[Lizard]

France in NZ, by tour
Black - NZ win series
Blue - France win series
Red - series drawn


1961: NZ 3, Fra 0 (15 match tour, including 1 tour game plus a test in Aust.)
1968: NZ 3, Fra 0 (14 match tour, including a test in Aust.)
1979: NZ 1, Fra 1 (10 match tour including matches v Fiji (capped by Fiji only) & Tahiti (uncapped))
1984: NZ 2, Fra 0 (8 match tour)
1986: NZ 1, Fra 0 (8 match tour: 1 match + 2 tests in Argentina; 2+1 in Aust)
1987: NZ 1, Fra 0 (RWC1987 final)
1989: NZ 2, Fra 0 (8 match tour)
1994: NZ 0, Fra 2 (10 match tour including 1 match + 1 test in Canada)
1999: NZ 1, Fra 0 (4 match including tests v Samoa and Tonga)
2001: NZ 1, Fra 0 (3 match tour, incl. 2 tests v SA)
2003: NZ 1, Fra 0 (3 match tour, incl. 2 tests v Arg)
2007: NZ 2, Fra 0
2009: NZ 1, Fra 1 (+ 1 test v Aust)
2011: NZ 2, Fra 0(RWC2011 pool and final)
2013: NZ 3, Fra 0 (4 match tour)
2018: NZ 1, Fra 2, 2 to play

*RWC1987 final
**RWC2011 pool and final

Something not quite right here?

No no. All seems in order to me. Nothing to see here.

[Lizard]

Numbers of All Blacks players used by campaign since RWC2015:

Jun 2016 Wales tour (3 tests): 32, 5 on debut
Aug – Oct 2016 TRC/BC (7): 36, 3 on debut
Nov 2016 NH tour (4) : 36, 3 on debut
June 2017 Lions+Samoa (4): 30, 3 on debut
Aug – Oct 2017 TRC/BC (7): 36, 1 debut
Nov 2017 NH tour (3) : 27*, 0 on debut
Jun 2018 France tour (2 so far): 23 so far, 1 debut

If Hansen is going to keep up his usual practice, expect to see 7 or 8 changes next including 1 or 2 debutants. Unused quad members are:
Awaiting All Blacks debut - Frizell, Tahuriorangi and Taufua (injured)
Uncapped but with tour jerseys: Goodhue, Mo’unga and Perry
Capped: Toomaga-Allen, Retallick (injured?), SBW (surgery), Milner-Skudder, Naholo


*Tests only, players who only played against France XV and Barbarians are excluded. Including them takes the total to 44.

[Lizard]

Julian Savea appears to have called time on his All Black career. If so, he will stay 2nd= on the all-time try-scoring list for the All Blacks on 46 with Christian Cullen and Joe Rokocoko. Howlett remains no. 1 with 49.

30+ test tries for the All Blacks
1 . DC Howlett : 49
2 . CM Cullen : 46
3 . JT Rokocoko : 46
4 . SJ Savea : 46
5 . JW Wilson : 44
6 . JT Lomu : 37
7 . JF Umaga : 36
8 . JJP Kirwan : 35
9 . JM Muliaina : 34
10 . MA Nonu : 31
11 . BR Smith : 30

Ben Smith is the only current All Black in that list. Others still in the frame with 10+ tries include:

IJA Dagg: 26
BJ Barrett: 25
KJ Read: 23
SJ Cane: 13
RE Ioane: 13
AL Smith: 13
J Kaino: 12
WR Naholo: 12
NR Milner-Skudder: 11
SB Williams: 11
DS Coles: 10

Of these, Ioane seems best placed to aim for the record, taking only 14 tests over 19 months to get 13 tries. He's only just 21 so if he can keep his wheels he has plenty of time. He might eventually end up at centre which would make it more difficult though. Naholo and NMS are probably both too old (27) to have time to get there.

Barrett, at 27 years old and 63 caps looks unlikely to double his tally. I would put the house on him beating Dan Carter's 29 to become the top try-scoring 5/8 for NZ though.

Read needs just 5 more to top Richie as top-scoring forward.

[Lizard]

I should point out that Carter (25) and Barrett (20) are also #1 and #2 in the world list of most tries by a 10. Larkham is 2nd=.

When playing at 10, Carter scored tries at a rate of exactly 1 every 4 tests. Larkham was a touch behind at 1 every 4.30 tests. Barrett as a 10 is currently running at 1 every 2.35 tests. Bear in mind that Carter and Larkham started over 94% of their tests at 10. Barrett has started only 66%!

[Lizard]

The All Blacks have played 11 tests in which an opposition player received a red card and have won all 11.

3 reds: SA
2: England, France
1: Australia, Fiji, Ireland, Wales

Conversely, 3 All Blacks have been sent off for 2 wins (England 1925, Scotland 1967) and 1 loss (Lions 2017).

That’s a fairly skewed ratio. So here is a graph showing red cards for and against every team that has been involved with at least red card.

RedCards.PNG

Depending on your viewpoint:
The top left quadrant are teams that get away with murder provoking retaliation that gets punished, OR are just so good that despite their own good discipline are the constant target of cheap shots and skulduggery.

Bottom left are boring teams with no passion OR disciplined and respectful sportsmen

Top right are a pack of thugs, constantly forcing relation in self-defence OR hot-blooded types who get over-excited from time to time

Bottom right are irretrievably semi-criminal thugs who are lucky to be allowed in the game at all OR physical Tier-2 teams that threaten the established order so are over-refereed to a borderline racist degree.

[Lizard]

Assuming that Mo’unga and Hemopo get on the pitch, Saturday will be the first time since 8 July 2015 that 4 All Blacks have had their test debuts together. Frizell and Hemopo have never worn Black, while Mo’unga and Goodhue played v France XV last year but are uncapped at test level).

On 8 July 2015, George Moala began on the pitch and was joined by Nepo Laulala, Charlie Ngatai and Brad Weber off the bench v Samoa.

The last time half of four debutants were in the XV was the previous occasion there were 4 v Japan, 3 November 2013. Bird and Halai starting with Toomaga-Allen and Luke Whitelock subbing The last time we had this many rookies against a top-tier side was when 6 players took their bow against Ireland on 12 June 2010 – Dagg, Ben Franks & Benson Stanley started, with Cruden, Vito and Sam Whitelock coming off the bench.

The last time we played 4+ debutants and lost was against England, 9 November 2002, when 7 sets of fresh legs hit the Twickenham turf: Steve Devine, Andrew Hore, Keith Lowen, Keith Robinson and Ali Williams were in the XV with Danny Lee and Bradley Mika coming on.

That England loss set the record for most All Blacks on debut in a single test in the pro era. It was the most since 11 “Baby Blacks” took on France in 1986 while the rebel SA tourists, the 1985 Cavaliers, sat out their ban.

On 3 September 1949, 15 All Blacks had their test debut – 13 v Australia in Sydney and 2 v South Africa in Durban!

The first All Blacks test after WWII, in 1946, unsurprisingly featured an entire line up of debutants, being the all-time record of 16 in total as one replacement was allowed.

The equivalent match after WWI, v SA in 1921 had only 14 debutant All Blacks as the selectors also called on 40-year old prop Ned Hughes who had played 3 tests in 1907 and 1908, switched to league (“Northern Union”, as it was then) in 1910, was reinstated to Union in the post-war amnesty and finally regained All Black status after 13 years!

Obviously large numbers of debutants were common when tests were few and far between. The 1913 tour to NZ by Australia merits a mention. Unsurprising, as the last test had been in 1910, the first test on 6 September featured 13 new All Blacks. The second test in Dunedin showcased a further 13, with another 3 starting their careers in the 3rd test in Christchurch a week later. Altogether, 40 players were used in 3 tests and a mid-week v Wellington (and we think rotation is a modern thing!) I suspect, but haven’t checked, that these were basically a North Island XV and a South Island XV trialling for the upcoming 16 match tour of USA and Canada.

The only other time a full All Blacks line-up was on test debut was in the very first NZ test match v Australia in 1903

[Lizard]

Which country could put together the best XV from RWC2015 players who have since retired from test rugby?

I've had a go at NZ. There's only 15 players eligible but a good spread of positions, with the exception being a complete lack of locks. So I've gone for overwhelming power with he two tallest of the four props available moving to the second row. Vito would have to come off his wing to jump in the line-out, mind. The loose-forwards are fairly formidable. TKB will do a job behind that massive pack, with the Carter/Nonu/Smith axis one of the best inside back trios of all time. No specialist wingers means Fekitoa has to give it another go (I think he came on for Naholo v Georgia so has some experience). The only spot to fit Vito in is on the other wing. Slade will do at fullback, he had a run there v Namibia so isn't a stranger to the position.

1. T. Woodcock
2. K. Mealamu
3. C. Faumuina
4. W. Crockett
5. B. Franks
6. J. Kaino
7. R. McCaw
8. L. Messam
9. T. Kerr-Barlow
10. D. Carter
11. M. Fekitoa
12. M. Nonu
13. C. Smith
14. V. Vito
15. C. Slade

[Lizard]

So for the fourth tournament running, the soccer world cup will not feature any new semi-finalist*. In comparison, the Rugby World Cup has never had more than two consecutive tournaments without a team making the semis for the first time.

In the last 6 tournaments for each code, both have had 2 new semi-finalists.*

In 20 soccer tournaments, there have been only 8 winners, or one new winner for every 2.5 tournaments. Rugby has generated new winners much faster, having had 4 different champions in only 8 tournaments (or 1 new winner every 2nd tournament**).

So who's the global sport now?

*If Russia=USSR, Germany=West Germany, Croatia=Yugoslavia
**By RWC2063 we can confidently expect to have had 10 different champions, presumably being the current 4 (NZ, Aus, SA, Eng) plus Fra, Ire, Sco, Wal, Arg and one of Fiji, Japan, Georgia or USA.

[cashead]

*If Russia=USSR, Germany=West Germany, Croatia=Yugoslavia

Yes, yes, no. UEFA and FIFA do consider Russia to be the successor team to the USSR national side, and likewise with Germany re: West Germany (also take into account that the East German football association was dissolved in favour of the West German one at reunification, and that only Ulf Kirsten and Matthias Sammer had any true long-term international careers playing for the unified German team after initially appearing for East Germany).

However, FIFA and UEFA consider Serbia to be the ultimate successor team to Yugoslavia (after initially giving this same status to Serbia + Montenegro), with the other breakaway nations (Croatia, B+H, Slovenia, Macedonia, Montenegro after independence and Kosovo) being inducted into FIFA and UEFA as new teams.

[rowan]

Yes, pretty sure Serbia is the successor team to Yugoslavia, as the most populous of the successor nations and seat of the capital. I did the stats on the FIFA and Rugby World Cups once and it was clear that the former produced more semi-finalists and far more quarter-finalists than the Rugby World Cup during the first eight tournaments. In fact, the first two FIFA World Cups produced four completely different semi-finalists, and I think it only took three or four tournaments before no team had appeared in all the quarters. But in terms of champions football was only one ahead, having produced 5 by 66, whereas rugby has produced 4 by 2015. The FIFA World Cup could, however, produce a new champion at every tournament, all 32 teams are highly competetive (as we saw with South Korea's win over Germany, and the fact only Egypt and Panama went home with 3 losses), and when it goes to 48 in 2026 that won't change much either. Quite simply, no game is a foregone conclusion. Rugby's winner is always going to come from 6 or 7 different nations, and those teams are always going to hammer the bottom 6 or 7. & neither is there any real prospect of any of the Celtic nations. Fiji, Japan or Georgia winning a Rugby World Cup in the next 40 or 50 years. They've done nothing at the past 8 tournaments, to suggest this, and it is unlikly any of them will even get to a final in the next 8. There are a few nations with the right combination of vast player numbers, resources and exposure to top level rugby which could conceivably break into the big time in the next half century - notably Argentina, Italy, the US, and possibly Spain, Russia and Brazil - but there is little to suggest rugby is going to even get close to football's global popularity in the foreseeable future.

[Lizard]

Thanks for setting me straight, bro.