Lions SA 2021

[Galfon]

Suppose not a 6N XV, but would have been tidier for the sake of
a day or so..especially seeing how well the Sco pack started v Fra.

[morepork]

Will Gatland emerge from a state of torpor and include Russell in the mix?

[Hooky]

Hogg, Watson, North, Henshaw, LRZ, Sexton, Murray, Wyn Jones, Owens, Sinckler, Itoje, AWJ, Curry, Underhill, Faletau

Half backs tricky. Few weeks ago both would've been lucky to be on the plane, but they've shown their class recently.

Close calls at TH, Lock back row. Furlong, Beirne, Ryan, Watson, Navidi all close to a starting place.

[Banquo]

Hogg, Watson, North, Henshaw, LRZ, Sexton, Murray, Wyn Jones, Owens, Sinckler, Itoje, AWJ, Curry, Underhill, Faletau

Half backs tricky. Few weeks ago both would've been lucky to be on the plane, but they've shown their class recently.

Close calls at TH, Lock back row. Furlong, Beirne, Ryan, Watson, Navidi all close to a starting place.

Class v form always tricky, and more so with Lions- how relevant is form, given you will be playing in a completely new team in what, 4 months time. That starting XV looks about right, though I'm a big fan of Liam Williams at 15, going against the grain. On the wings, I've never seen either of them on the left, but that might be me- they are the wings I'd choose. I'd probably start Furlong too.

Back row is very difficult, but for different reasons to half back; I can't see Sexton getting through the tour, for example. Dan Biggar imo deserves more praise than he gets.

[morepork]

Sexton and Murray? Jesus that's grim...

[Dan. Dan. Dan.]

The worst half-back pairing. Except for all the others.

[whatisthejava]

I really think anyone who wants Sexton starting hasn't bothered watching Squidges analysis of how modern 10s play the game.

If anyone can watch these two videos and then come out and still say Sexton then you fully deserve your opinion against the evidence of someone who has actually analysed the games - rather than watched

[bbvideo=560,315]https://www.youtube.com/embed/VapH_ArkIrU[/bbvideo]

[bbvideo=560,315]https://www.youtube.com/embed/ob4ulx7H4Jg[/bbvideo]

[Spiffy]

Hogg, Watson, North, Henshaw, LRZ, Sexton, Murray, Wyn Jones, Owens, Sinckler, Itoje, AWJ, Curry, Underhill, Faletau

Half backs tricky. Few weeks ago both would've been lucky to be on the plane, but they've shown their class recently.

Close calls at TH, Lock back row. Furlong, Beirne, Ryan, Watson, Navidi all close to a starting place.

I'd say Furlong and Beirne were closer to a starting spot than Sinkler/Underhill, but then I'm a biased Irish supporter. Henderson could make it too.

[whatisthejava]

I'd say Furlong and Beirne were closer to a starting spot than Sinkler/Underhill, but then I'm a biased Irish supporter. Henderson could make it too.

Furlong is nailed on

I think Beirne gets on at 6, doubt he makes the second row

Henderson is a really hard call , he did well against England but was at fault for the first welsh try

[Dan. Dan. Dan.]

I really think anyone who wants Sexton starting hasn't bothered watching Squidges analysis of how modern 10s play the game.

If anyone can watch these two videos and then come out and still say Sexton then you fully deserve your opinion against the evidence of someone who has actually analysed the games - rather than watched

[bbvideo=560,315]https://www.youtube.com/embed/VapH_ArkIrU[/bbvideo]

[bbvideo=560,315]https://www.youtube.com/embed/ob4ulx7H4Jg[/bbvideo]

I would love Ford to start. He's the most talented attacking fly half in the northern Hemisphere, including Russell, he doesn't chuck it about, he orchestrates.
Unfortunately I doubt he'll even tour. Which is annoying from an England point of view too, because we won't get to see how Smith/Simmonds/Umaga do at 10. I imagine Ford will captain, or at the very least be required as an experienced head.
I think Gatland will buy in to the born competitor narrative around Farrell and Sexton (and Biggar probably) and they'll go, and we'll see 10 Sexton, 12 Farrell. People seem to have forgotten all about Brighton, and think you've got to front up against the Boks (not sure anyone can!) where really you should be rushing them off their feet and panicking them by playing quick rugby.

[whatisthejava]

I think Gatland will buy in to the born competitor narrative around Farrell and Sexton (and Biggar probably) and they'll go, and we'll see 10 Sexton, 12 Farrell. People seem to have forgotten all about Brighton, and think you've got to front up against the Boks (not sure anyone can!) where really you should be rushing them off their feet and panicking them by playing quick rugby.

See, this is another narrative i dont get

Do you think Gatland is an autocrat

I remember thinking last Lions tour that he clearly trusts his coaches to make decisions about selection and strategy.

In that case, i cant see Townsend (as the rumours suggest) as attack coach
picking Farrell/Sexton/Biggar at 10 when he knows that Finn Russell is better
I cant see him picking Farrel at 12 when he knows Henshaw is in form and a better on field decision maker
I also think that Sexton/Farrell ran the show 4 years ago because Howley was there, why would Townsend do taht ?

On a broader theme, with Farrell snr and Toony supposed coaches, i think England are going to lose almost every 50/50 because how do those two guys go back to their day jobs, look guys in the face who just smashed England and explain why they picked English players that are out of form and out of shape.

I think we will be surprised how many irish and scots go because it benefits both coaches to have a lions team made up of scot/irish when it comes to the RWC, its also a chance for them to show that they back their players over the english alternatives.

It also depends on how the coaches think they can best beat SA.

They cant go head to head with them because of what the saffers did to England
so for me a big meaty front five, a very mobile back row and 7 attacking threats out wide.

That for me suggests the lions backs are Henshaw, Watson and a mix between scots and welsh

[Dan. Dan. Dan.]

I hope you're right. But has Gatland ever coached a team to play that way?

[whatisthejava]

I hope you're right. But has Gatland ever coached a team to play that way?

Gatland was a pragamatist when he needed to be (Ive never been a fan of his style but to say that Wales played the same way for 10 years is not true, he changed the way they played based on interpretation and players available.

I think he will change the way he plays as he wants to be the first guy to be unbeaten as head coach on 3 tours, but he also has a different defence coach and a different attack coach

[Spiffy]

I'd say Furlong and Beirne were closer to a starting spot than Sinkler/Underhill, but then I'm a biased Irish supporter. Henderson could make it too.

Furlong is nailed on

I think Beirne gets on at 6, doubt he makes the second row

Henderson is a really hard call , he did well against England but was at fault for the first welsh try

Yes - I was considering Beirne as a backrower v. Underhill.

Re. Henderson : Fair enough - but if you leave out players for one singled-out mistake, there's nobody left to select.

[whatisthejava]

Henderson always plays well against England, but where was he against France, was he even on pitch against Scotland - did he replace Ryan?

I

[Spiffy]

Henderson always plays well against England, but where was he against France, was he even on pitch against Scotland - did he replace Ryan?

I

From an Ireland perspective, I would have Henderson marginally ahead of Ryan at present.

Anyway - who would be your four top locks for Lions squad selection then?

[whatisthejava]

Henderson always plays well against England, but where was he against France, was he even on pitch against Scotland - did he replace Ryan?

I

From an Ireland perspective, I would have Henderson marginally ahead of Ryan at present.

Anyway - who would be your four top locks for Lions squad selection then?

Pre 6 nations
Itoje
Ryan
J Gray
Henderson/Cummings/AWJ

Post 6N in no order
J gray
AWJ
Cummings/Henderson/Ryan


Strangely it’s really hard to pick , everyone had their weird moments, the Scottish line out was pretty solid except for the Ireland game but again we opted for two jumpers which made it easier to read. .

Gilchrist was awesome against France
Beard was very good against France
Henderson had a great game against England.

I’ve always been a big fan of Jake Ball.

Henderson came from no where 4 years ago , had a great game against England and ended up on tour.

I reckon AWJ will go and then after that it’s shoogly peg time

[Spiffy]

Henderson always plays well against England, but where was he against France, was he even on pitch against Scotland - did he replace Ryan?

I

From an Ireland perspective, I would have Henderson marginally ahead of Ryan at present.

Anyway - who would be your four top locks for Lions squad selection then?

Pre 6 nations
Itoje
Ryan
J Gray
Henderson/Cummings/AWJ

Post 6N in no order
J gray
AWJ
Cummings/Henderson/Ryan


Strangely it’s really hard to pick , everyone had their weird moments, the Scottish line out was pretty solid except for the Ireland game but again we opted for two jumpers which made it easier to read. .

Gilchrist was awesome against France
Beard was very good against France
Henderson had a great game against England.

I’ve always been a big fan of Jake Ball.

Henderson came from no where 4 years ago , had a great game against England and ended up on tour.

I reckon AWJ will go and then after that it’s shoogly peg time

I think Itoje is more or less nailed on, though he had a poor 6N by his own standards. He has become a bit of a penalty magnet and will really need to watch it as refs seem to be tightening up across the board.

[whatisthejava]

See here

Stats from the 6N website

Ive not included dominant tackles cos its a dick stat

But here are the runners and riders

All info taken from here

https://www.sixnationsrugby.com/statistics/

2ndrowStats.png

As you can see, the stats dont lie

Itoje was a penalty machine

JG made more meters on the field than the others as well as carrying more
Henderson tackle percentage was pants
JG once again perfect
Henderson and JG won 3 turn overs each

[Hooky]

Don't 5 locks go? Beard has to be in with a shout too.

[jngf]

As a prediction I could see Sam Simmonds making the tour squad and making the test team but at 7 rather than 8 - we shall see!

[Numbers]

I think that most people have a pretty good idea what the starting 15 should be, there are some players who will already be on the teamsheet imo, here's my team for you to pick apart:

W Jones
K Owens
T Furlong
Itoje
AWJ
T Beirne
H Watson
T Faletau
C Murray
F Russell
A Watson
R Henshaw
G North
L Williams
S Hogg

Bench: J Marler, J George, K Sinckler, J Ryan, J Navidi/T Curry, T Williams, J Sexton, J Davies

The main reason I picked J Davies on the bench is to cover centre, the rest of the backline is covered as North can move to the wing and Williams to 15 if there are injuries, which if the last tour was anything to go by will be coming thick and fast.

[Dan. Dan. Dan.]

OK, if we're doing hypothetical 15/23's here's mine;
15 Hogg
14 A Watson
13 North
12 Henshaw
11 Williams
10 Ford
9 Youngs
8 Faletau
7 H Watson
6 Beirne
5 A-W Jones
4 Itoje
3 Furlong
2 Owens
1 Marler
16 Cowan-Dickie
17 W Jones
18 Sinckler
19 Gray
20 Curry
21 Price
22 Sexton
23 Tuilagi

It's bloody difficult against SA, even if they haven't played forever, I think they are physically dominant upfront in an almost impossible to counteract way. That being said if you are quick enough both in contact and getting the ball away, I think you can shock them in to thinking they'll lose.
In the front row, I just think Marler and Furlong are the most likely to be able cope with the two sets of worldclass scrum monsters SA will field. Wyn Jones is in the form of his life (but I'd still worry about him quickly falling to earth on his arse in SA) and Sinckler has been one of very few England players to still look as good as he did 2 years ago.
AWJ just kind of has to doesn't he? I'm not sure he's in the top 5 locks in the home nations either, but you've got to have stories like this in sport, and you know he'll front up and be great captaining. Itoje is without doubt who SA would least like to see in the opposition team sheet. Whatever you think of his penalty count, attitude, form, he's destructive as hell, and gives us the best chance.
Back row is difficult, mostly because I think Tipuric is the most talented flanker we could pick, I just don't think he'll get much joy in SA. Curry will give his all, he's just a bit headless chicken at times. Hamish is similarly combative and his ball carrying is ridiculous. I don't see size as an issue as he seems to electric eel his way through and never break so... Faletau looked in good nick and is the best option for quick ball, while Beirne was pretty close to Watson for player of the 6N for me, and we'll need his size, lineout option and defensive nous.
Halfbacks is so difficult! Ford struggles when the pack doesn't dominate, but so does everyone. Against SA, your very unlikely to dominate, but if you can play fast in attack, nobody else can set up attacking plays like him. If I had told myself I'd be picking Ben Youngs as a Lions 9 6 months ago I'd have thought I'd gone mad, but, after the 6N I've got a new found respect for his ridiculously quick, if not always accurate play. For the bench spots, I just don't really know. Ali Price looked pretty good from what I saw, and out of Biggar and Sexton I barely care... Russell will just combust against SA and Farrell should only be considered as a twelve (one that's not even in the squad preferably).
Henshaw and North were both brilliant in the 6N and would give Ford running threats he just doesn't have with England. We'll see how Tuilagi goes when back, and he may well be an option to swap with North if he looks back to near his best.
Hogg, Williams and Watson are all in good form, and have some Lions experience. Rees-Zammitt should tour but is too raw to start, and VDM hasn't quite shown enough for me to qualify for a trip home.

[jngf]

I think it will interesting to see the type of blindside flanker Lions plump for :

- a PSdT lock type e.g. Lawes or Beirne?

- a second no.8 style carrier e.g. Stander?

- a 6.5 like Underhill, T.Curry or Navidi?

[Numbers]

I think it will interesting to see the type of blindside flanker Lions plump for :

- a PSdT lock type e.g. Lawes or Beirne?

- a second no.8 style carrier e.g. Stander?

- a 6.5 like Underhill, T.Curry or Navidi?

Beirne fits all these criteria imo, very good over the ball, great in the lineout and can carry with a nice step.