Super Rugby

[Lizard]

Don't forget that the Chiefs and Highlanders have a game in hand over the Crusaders

The top 8 finish as follows:
CRU (50): Chi, Hig, Blu
LIO (40): Sha, Bul
WAR (31): Red, Reb, Sun, Bru
HUR (45): Hig, Bru, Blu, Chi
CHI (37): Cru, Hig, Bru, Hur
HIG (36): Hur, Chi, Cru, Rebs
JAG (34): Sto, Bul, Sha
REB (30): Blu, War, Red, Hig

No side is out of the competition in theory. A clean sheet with some big, big margins and with bonus points could technically see the Sunwolves go ahead of the Reds on points difference.

Update:

Heading into the test window, not much has changed on the surface. The Highlanders have gone past the Chiefs, but are yet to play the Crusaders. The Cru get an extended break with a bye immediately after the break, but they do have a "Keep Warm" match against the Force the week before. The depth and ability of the Crusaders makes it unlikely they can be overtaken, despite every other NZ side having a game in hand over them. The Highlanders will have to throw the kitchen sink at them. The Blue will disinterestedly but fruitlessly look around for a kitchen sink before succumbing to the inevitable.

The crucial top wildcard spot is wide open, with the Jags and Rebs still a mathematical chance. But the Canes have the lead and the most favourable stretch home; the Brumbies are on a 13 game, 2 year losing streak against NZ teams and I don't think home advantage will help; the Blues will be the Blues, and by the last round I expect the Hurricanes will be out of reach.

In Aussie, the Sunwolves' season is in effect over. The Reds, I think, are technically still in it but would need a series of wildly improbable results. The grudge match between the top two after the test window will go a long way to sorting out the finishing order, but the Reds last regular season match is against the Highlanders who may be scrapping for a top 4 place (or, conversely, trying to game themselves an away semi in Sydney rather than SA). It would be hard to bet against the Tah's remaining the tallest dwarf in that pool.

In SA, again all teams are technically still in it (I think). Both the Lions and Jags have only derbies left. The Lions can shut the gate with 2 wins including 1 bonus point. The Jags need to extend their 6-match winning streak to 9 and hope the bonus points fall in their favour to cap a remarkable season.

CRU (54): Hig, Blu
LIO (40): Sha, Bul
WAR (35): Reb, Sun, Bru
HUR (45): Bru, Blu, Chi
HIG (40): Chi, Cru, Rebs
CHI (37): Hig, Bru, Hur
JAG (34): Sto, Bul, Sha
REB (34): War, Red, Hig

[rowan]

I think the top 4 will finish as they are and receive the home quarters. Canterbury will then be impossible to beat on their home-ground and likely cruise to their 9th title. But the Canes could get the wind at their backs with a solid win in the quarters, and they seem to be a team that travels well, so anything could happen (with the exception of a win in Christchurch)! Sunwolves, Blues and Reds are definitely out of the playoffs picture, and probably the Stormers, too, given they've played 14 games already, while the Brumbies and Bulls would require maximum points plus results elsewhere to go their way to have a chance from here. So realistically it's going to be a mid-table dogfight for the away spots in the quarters, but the Chiefs should come through, and the Jags and Rebels have put themselves into good position with recent results. It's the Sharks who have all the hard work ahead of them to break into the top 8.

[scuzzaman]

The Lions, 2nd on the table because reasons, have conceded more points than 3rd, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 8th, 9th, 10th, 11th, and 12th places, 20 fewer than 13th place and only 5 fewer than 14th place.

Only the last placed team have a significantly worse defensive game.

This format is bollocks.

[rowan]

Get over it, dude!

[rowan]

Remaining fixtures:

Date Teams Venue Kickoff time (AEDT/AEST)
Fri Jun 29 Blues vs Reds Eden Park, Auckland 5:35 PM
Fri Jun 29 Rebels vs Waratahs AAMI Park, Melbourne 7:45 PM
Sat Jun 30 Highlanders vs Chiefs Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin 5:35 PM
Sat Jun 30 Brumbies vs Hurricanes GIO Stadium, Canberra 7:45 PM
Sat Jun 30 Sunwolves vs Bulls Singapore National Stadium, Singapore 9:55 PM
Sun Jul 1 Sharks vs Lions Growthport Kings Park, Durban 1:15 AM
Sun Jul 1 Jaguares vs Stormers Velez Sarsfield, Buenos Aires 5:40 AM
Bye: Crusaders

Round 18
Date Teams Venue Kickoff time (AEDT/AEST)
Fri Jul 6 Crusaders vs Highlanders AMI Stadium, Christchurch 5:35 PM
Fri Jul 6 Reds vs Rebels Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane 7:45 PM
Sat Jul 7 Chiefs vs Brumbies FMG Stadium, Waikato 3:15 PM
Sat Jul 7 Hurricanes vs Blues Westpac Stadium, Wellington 5:35 PM
Sat Jul 7 Waratahs vs Sunwolves Allianz Stadium, Sydney 7:45 PM
Sat Jul 7 Bulls vs Jaguares Loftus Versfeld, Pretoria 11:05 PM
Sun Jul 8 Stormers vs Sharks DHL Newlands, Cape Town 1:15 AM
Bye: Lions

Round 19
Date Teams Venue Kickoff time (AEDT/AEST)
Fri Jul 13 Chiefs vs Hurricanes FMG Stadium, Waikato 5:35 PM
Fri Jul 13 Reds vs Sunwolves Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane 7:45 PM
Sat Jul 14 Highlanders vs Rebels Forsyth Barr Stadium, Dunedin 3:15 PM
Sat Jul 14 Crusaders vs Blues AMI Stadium, Christchurch 5:35 PM
Sat Jul 14 Waratahs vs Brumbies Allianz Stadium, Sydney 7:45 PM
Sat Jul 14 Lions vs Bulls Emirates Airlines Park, Johannesburg 11:05 PM
Sun Jul 15 Sharks vs Jaguares Growthport Kings Park, Durban 1:15 AM

[rowan]

I think there's just been some clashing of the egoes here. Storm in a teacup:

Cape Town - Supposedly the central, aggrieved figure, Ashwin Willemse is believed to be yet to provide his version of affairs in the SuperSport studio walkout saga to the independent review.

It may go some way to explaining why the organisation, through communications chief Clinton van der Berg, told Sport24 on Thursday that completion of the process has been pushed out by a week - now to Monday, June 18.

It is understood that the inquiry, under the charge of advocate Vincent Maleka, has completed most - or all - of its other interviews with key figures into the much-publicised drama of almost three weeks ago.

But at least at the time of writing, the 19-cap Springbok wing and regular pundit was believed not to have presented his testimony.

Attempts to contact key figures in the controversy - Willemse, Nick Mallett and Naas Botha - have repeatedly been unsuccessful.

https://www.sport24.co.za/Rugby/SuperRu ... y-20180607

[rowan]

There haven't been too many upsets this year, and if that trend continues we should see the Saders win their last two games at home and finish atop the table with about 63 points. The Canes ought to dispense with ACT and the Blues, but their final match away to the Chiefs might prove crucial, and could even decide the final home berth in the quarters, if the Chiefs are able to overcome the Highlanders in Dunedin - but that's a big IF given last week's results. The Canes ought to finish with 54-58 points, the Chiefs with 42-50. Otago have 3 very tough games coming up but should win one or two to finish with 45-50 points. The Tahs will probably beat the Rebels, but even a slip-up there shouldn't prevent them taking out the Aussie conference, with the Sunwolves and Brumbies to follow. They should also finish with between 45 and 50 points. The Rebels are only a point behind, and if they can upset NSW in the next round, anything could happen. But that tough final encounter with the Highlands, who are also likely to be desperate, will be crucial. They could finish with anywhere between 40 and 48 points. The Lions have a more difficult task in the SA Conference, with the Sharks away and Bulls at home. But on form they ought to win both and finish with 48-50 points. The Jaguares ought to account for the Stormers at home in their next fixture, but will probably need at least one win from their final 2 games in SA, against the Sharks & Bulls, to be sure of a top 8 spot. They could finish with anything from 38 to 48 points. The Sharks appear the only other realistic contender, but will almost certainly need to win their final 3 games - against the Lions, Stormers (away) and Jags, and that seems unlikely. They're on target for 33-37 points.

In summary, my predicted top 8 finish is:

Crusaders 63
Lions 49
Waratahs 48
Hurricanes 56
Highlanders 48
Chiefs 46
Rebels 44
Jaguares 43
..................
Sharks 35

From there I think we'd see the Crusaders and Lions account for the Jaguares and Rebels without too much difficulty, but the Canes at home to Otago and NSW - Chiefs encounters could go either way.

[rowan]

2019 Super draw: Seems a tad early, doesn't it?

Canes start with a trip to Sydney:

Round 1
Friday 15 February Chiefs Highlanders TBC 19:35 6:35 Fri 15 Feb 19:35 Fri 15 Feb 17:35 Fri 15 Feb 15:35 Fri 15 Feb 14:35 Fri 15 Feb 8:35 Fri 15 Feb 3:35
Friday 15 February Brumbies Rebels TBC 19:45 8:45 Fri 15 Feb 21:45 Fri 15 Feb 19:45 Fri 15 Feb 17:45 Fri 15 Feb 16:45 Fri 15 Feb 10:45 Fri 15 Feb 5:45
Saturday 16 February Blues Crusaders TBC 19:35 6:35 Sat 16 Feb 19:35 Sat 16 Feb 17:35 Sat 16 Feb 15:35 Sat 16 Feb 14:35 Sat 16 Feb 8:35 Sat 16 Feb 3:35
Saturday 16 February Waratahs Hurricanes TBC 19:45 8:45 Sat 16 Feb 21:45 Sat 16 Feb 19:45 Sat 16 Feb 17:45 Sat 16 Feb 16:45 Sat 16 Feb 10:45 Sat 16 Feb 5:45
Saturday 16 February Sunwolves Sharks TBC 18:55 10:55 Sat 16 Feb 23:55 Sat 16 Feb 21:55 Sat 16 Feb 19:55 Sat 16 Feb 18:55 Sat 16 Feb 12:55 Sat 16 Feb 7:55
Saturday 16 February Bulls Stormers TBC 17:15 15:15 Sun 17 Feb 4:15 Sun 17 Feb 2:15 Sun 17 Feb 0:15 Sat 16 Feb 23:15 Sat 16 Feb 17:15 Sat 16 Feb 12:15
Saturday 16 February Jaguares Lions TBC 18:40 21:40 Sun 17 Feb 10:40 Sun 17 Feb 8:40 Sun 17 Feb 6:40 Sun 17 Feb 5:40 Sat 16 Feb 23:40 Sat 16 Feb 18:40

Full draw: http://theblues.co.nz/wp-content/upload ... Master.pdf

[rowan]

No break for the summer tours next year! Great news, but I hope that doesn't mean they'll be playing the business end of the competition with under-strength teams...

[Lizard]

No summer tours in a RWC year.

[rowan]

That crossed my mind, but then I thought, no, that's just the AIs.

So no summer tours before the World Cup. I guess they'll be playing warm-up tests against their regional neighbors then, presumably from the end of July (post Super Rugby) til early September (pre-RWC).

& no doubt this means we'll be back to the usual interruptions in 2020 . . .

[rowan]

Can anyone translate this into English for me?

[scuzzaman]

What he means is he ascribes to the standard lefty doctrine, to wit:

"Only white people can really be racists."

He's trying to virtue signal without overtly pissing anyone off. It's a stupid futile endeavour but that doesn't stop people doing it.

"You just know."

Well, OK, so we'll make you the judge jury and executioner of the careers and livelihoods of every single other South African, hey? Because you "just know".

Idiot.

[morepork]

Fuck me, it's Don Brash.

[rowan]

This one's not going away:

In a press statement on Thursday, Cosatu (Congress of South African Trade Unions) gave its support for Willemse and rejected Maleka’s findings.
The report by SuperSport on the Ashwin Willemse issue is a whitewash to cover up the racism still operating in the old white company. Cosatu rejects the report on the basis that it did not consider the letter from Willemse’s attorneys carefully enough; neither did it adequately consider the letter from Mallett to Scott Seward.
This letter reveals the ‘baas-skap’ (boss mentality) mentality of Mallett and how he is led to believe that he can decide which black presenters he works with.
Mallett is a racist who has displayed his attitude in many subtle ways, and this support from SuperSport to him is unacceptable. Mallett and Naas should not be allowed back into SuperSport; otherwise Cosatu will consider a full-scale boycott of SuperSport.
Mallett’s ‘baas-skap’ mentality leads him to have difficulty when a black presenter questions his attempts to use his position to try and talk white players into the Springbok team.
The statement listed further problems the federation has with SuperSport.
– DStv has a monopoly that must be ended by the Competition Commission, as it is an old apartheid company controlled by the Stellenbosch mafia.
– SuperSport has worked with Saru to sell the rights to our national sport and deny South Africans access to the international Test series live on SABC.
– SuperSport has allowed the prevalence of whites in the studio to be completely removed from any employment equity provisions.
It concludes by saying Cosatu’s Western Cape regional secretary, Tony Ehrenreich, will personally be ending his DStv subscription.

http://www.sarugbymag.co.za/cosatu-mallett-racist/

[rowan]

Well, now that those pesky internationals are out of the way we can get back to the serious business of Super Rugby. But unfortunately it's going to take a round of games or two to get the passion back again, and not because of the pesky internationals, but due to all the excitement and drama that has been going on in another sport in a far off land - and which will continue for a couple more weeks to come. Perhaps it's for the best anyway, given the Canes' fortunes had taken a massive dive just before this interruption.

The 2016 champions will travel to Canberra in need of a win to keep their home quarterfinal chances in tact. Canterbury seem destined to top the table again, but they have a bye which will enable the Canes to close the gap to five points (one win with bonus points) if they get the maximum points in the Australian capital. At least, with the Crusaders taking a bye, the mathematically challenged fans (and reporters) will be able to see the true disparity between the frontrunners, which completely eluded them in earlier rounds when the Canes had a game in hand.

The Landers and Chiefs also have a criticial encounter in Dunedin; both teams pushing the Canes for a home quarter, while also needing to consolidate their place in the top 8 for a play-offs spot of any description. The Jags are in a similar predicament, and many of the players will be determined to put the national team's woes behind them as a desperate Stormers come to town with an outsider's chance of making the quarterfinals.

The Lions, meanwhile, will look to consolidate top spot in the SA conference and secure a home quarter with victory over the Sharks, who are also battling just to reach the playoffs. The Durban-based outfit has home advantage in this encounter. & while the Waratahs and Rebels may be 3rd and 8th on the table, respectively, there is only actually a point between them, and a home win for the latter this weekend will turn the tables completely and put the Victorians in pole position for a home playoffs spot. Lose and they may battle to make the playoffs at all.

The remaining two encounters, featuring the bottom four teams, don't have much riding on them, although the Bulls would remain in contention for a playoffs spot with a win over the Sunwolves in Singers. Blues v Reds at Eden Park is pretty much a dead rubber.

[Lizard]

Highlanders v Chiefs is being played in Suva.

[morepork]

Highlanders v Chiefs is being played in Suva.

This will not save the Tron.

[rowan]

Highlanders v Chiefs is being played in Suva.

Cool. Hope they get a good crowd; would really push along this Pacific Islands franchise they're talking about. Are there any Fijians playing in the match? That would help draw them in...

[rowan]

So a crucial win for the Tahs is what happened. Rebels now having to fight for what will almost certainly be an away berth in the playoffs ...

[rowan]

Chiefs blitzing Landers in Suva. 28-0 after 28 mins. Good news for Canes.

Another Chiefs try and Whitelock in the bin. 35-0 approaching HT. Otago getting smashed.

HT 42-0

While this eases the pressure on the Canes with the Landers currently just 5 points behind them (and the Chiefs 8), this could well mean the Canes final match with the Chiefs will determine who gets to play at home in the quarters and who must travel - & right now that looks ominous.

42-12 early2nd 1/2. Landers on the comeback?

They even had another try disallowed. But after that explosive beginning to the 2nd half their momentum seems to have stalled a little...

FT 45-22 great win for the Chiefs, obviously eased off the gas pedal in the 2nd half

[rowan]

Astonishing loss for the Canes in Canberra, their third in as many games, having previous won 10-in-a-row and been tied at the top of the table with the Saders, who they beat fairly comfortably at home earlier in the competition. Not sure I can recall the wheels coming off a team in quite such spectacular fashion. Fortunately they'd done enough to secure a playoff spot, and their next match - at home to the Blues - provides an excellent opportunity to get back into winning form before that crucial final round encounter with the Chiefs.

Another surprise in Singers where the Bulls slender playoff hopes were effectively ended with a loss to the Sunwolves.

[rowan]

Sharks win at home over the Lions put huge pressure on the Jaguares to overcome the Stormers in BA tonight. Home team wins, they ought to go through to the playoffs. Stormers win and it's a dogfight between several teams for the last couple of places.

[rowan]

Jags with the 15-7 lead approaching halftime. Hope they can give me something to cheer about this weekend!

Perfect start to the second half for the home-team as they grab their third try. Does anyone else suspect the Argies were holding back during the Summer tours?

Interesting dilemma. You're 11 points ahead with time up on the clock and about to feed a scrum, but so far you've only scored 3 tries. Do you kick for touch or go in search of the bonus point ?

The Jags seem to have settled for the safe option. 25-14. Argentinean rugby is alive and well, and the Jags should make the playoffs from here, although they now finish with a tough 2-game tour of SA.

[rowan]

So the Stormers and Bulls are out of contention for the playoffs after today's results, but the Sharks & Brumbies kept their chances alive. jags probably need one more win from their final two games to clinch a playoffs spot for the first time, while the Rebels will probably need two wins.

1. Crusaders 14 12 0 2 443:256 54

2. Lions 15 8 0 7 481:423 41

3. Waratahs 14 8 1 5 449:380 39

4. Hurricanes 14 10 0 4 408:291 45

5. Chiefs 14 9 0 5 411:325 41

6. Highlanders 14 9 0 5 372:363 40

7. Jaguares 14 9 0 5 365:355 38

8. Rebels 14 7 0 7 380:381 35

9. Sharks 14 6 1 7 401:405 32

10. Brumbies 14 6 0 8 334:367 29

11. Bulls 14 5 0 9 386:430 25

12. Stormers 15 5 0 10 363:407 25

13. Blues 14 4 0 10 337:413 22

14. Reds 14 4 0 10 304:451 19

15. Sunwolves 14 3 0 11 352:539 14