The RugbyRebels Messageboard
http://rugbyrebels.co.uk/
Svatove would be a good bit of real estate to get back. If the Russian parliament is apparently going to discuss (get told to approve) annexation on 4th October, the question is how much can Ukraine get back in the next few days?
I don't think that's viable this year. Ukraine will surely be looking to move the front line up to the Zherebets with a Southern beachhead at Zarichne, and, with a bit of luck, Kreminina.
It's a little premature to talk about rasputitsa just yet. Sure, it's coming, but I think it'll only start to be an issue around mid-October. That's still plenty of time for Ukraine to get to Svatove and up the T-1312 to Troitske like you mention. And/or they might go to Starobilsk, which is actually closer to Svatove than Troitske. Will depend on how much resistance they encounter.Which Tyler wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 11:54 amI don't think that's viable this year. Ukraine will surely be looking to move the front line up to the Zherebets with a Southern beachhead at Zarichne, and, with a bit of luck, Kreminina.
General Mud is already in effect, forcing anything bigger than a quad bike onto the roads and railways, and you're not going to want to expose your supply lines by more river crossings than you have to; and to secure the above, they still need to sweep up Northwards as far as they can - hopefully beyond the point where the Zherebets is a major obstacle (due SE from Kupyansk, but further North than the cut-off on your map), and they could sweep on past and back down Southwards again. Ideally, of course, they'd also secure 1-2 other crossings over the Zherebets; but I don't think they'll be able to do much more than that before the ground freezes.
The next "big" river is the Krasna, which Svatove sits on; if Ukraine wants to get that far this year, they really need the Russians to just collapse nowish, and run away as they did once the Izyum was bypassed - but I don't see the same psyops in play, or the same fear in the Russian lines to allow that.
Other than the river, then strategically, there's a major rail line running through Svatove down to Severodonetsk - but Ukraine already control that at Kupyansk, so Svatove is already more-or-less the end of the line there.
After that, the next main strategic goal is surely Starobilsk, with the last main rail line between Luhansk and Russia Northwards, which can also be cut off further North at Troitske (along with the major road junction for the area). There's also another major river there, the Aidar - which I suggested earlier in the thread is probably the medium-term goal for Ukraine in Luhansk - a frontline West of the Aidar and North of the Siverskyi-Donets, and you've got about 1/3 of Luhansk Oblast, and more importantly, cut off all the major supply routes Northwards; meaning that the only supply routes from Russia to Ukraine come from the East, through Volgograd.
That line also means the liberation of some really big, important towns / cities like Troitske, Bilokurakyne, Starobilsk, Novoaidar, not to mention Rubizhne, & Severodoentsk, and hopefully Lyschansk on the other side of the river; and bring Luhansk itself within range of normal artillery fire.
Between the Aidar, and the Russian border at the Derkul, there only a couple of largish towns, 1 major road route and no major rail lines - liberating here would obviously be great for Ukraine, but presumably of little value militarily, at a cost of massively increasing the border to be secured. I'd suggest that's the mop-up operation for a later phase, after the likes of Luhansk, Horlivka and Donetsk cities have been liberated
As if they'll be given tanks. They'll be lucky if they get something more modern than the M1891 that their great-grandfathers used.Sandydragon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:55 pm And apparently the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence's 'how to surrender hotline' is running red hot. Possibly propaganda but how keen are these recent conscripts on getting killed driving their granddads tanks!
Tons of T-34s still in storage apparently! Not that they will have any fuel for them. Or ammunition. From one of the reports I read the new conscripts are buying their own first aid kits.Zhivago wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:16 pmAs if they'll be given tanks. They'll be lucky if they get something more modern than the M1891 that their great-grandfathers used.Sandydragon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:55 pm And apparently the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence's 'how to surrender hotline' is running red hot. Possibly propaganda but how keen are these recent conscripts on getting killed driving their granddads tanks!
Also via Russian Telegram:
That's what I thought, until I posted this a couple of days ago.Zhivago wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 12:44 pm It's a little premature to talk about rasputitsa just yet. Sure, it's coming, but I think it'll only start to be an issue around mid-October. That's still plenty of time for Ukraine to get to Svatove and up the T-1312 to Troitske like you mention. And/or they might go to Starobilsk, which is actually closer to Svatove than Troitske. Will depend on how much resistance they encounter.
Cutting off Russia's supply lines from Valyuki or elsewhere in Belorod Oblast will be vital for mitigating the effectiveness of Russia's mobilization, and increasing Russia's logistical problems during the rasputitsa period. It is quite possible that Russia's north Lugansk front will collapse, and they'll be forced to retreat back south of the Siversky Donets.
As I love maps, and you seem to also, heres some detailed topographic maps of the region.
http://www.ua-maps.com/images/ukraine/t ... kaya_1.jpg
http://freemap.com.ua/maps/genshtab/m-37-089.jpg
It's clear to see that Svatove lies below the valley ridge just west of the Krasna river. That should make it hard to defend from Russia's point of view.
Tampons you mean? That's what they were told in a video I saw.Sandydragon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:46 pmTons of T-34s still in storage apparently! Not that they will have any fuel for them. Or ammunition. From one of the reports I read the new conscripts are buying their own first aid kits.Zhivago wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:16 pmAs if they'll be given tanks. They'll be lucky if they get something more modern than the M1891 that their great-grandfathers used.Sandydragon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 1:55 pm And apparently the Ukrainian Ministry of Defence's 'how to surrender hotline' is running red hot. Possibly propaganda but how keen are these recent conscripts on getting killed driving their granddads tanks!
Also via Russian Telegram:
If you like maps this might be of interest.Which Tyler wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:09 pmThat's what I thought, until I posted this a couple of days ago.Zhivago wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 12:44 pm It's a little premature to talk about rasputitsa just yet. Sure, it's coming, but I think it'll only start to be an issue around mid-October. That's still plenty of time for Ukraine to get to Svatove and up the T-1312 to Troitske like you mention. And/or they might go to Starobilsk, which is actually closer to Svatove than Troitske. Will depend on how much resistance they encounter.
Cutting off Russia's supply lines from Valyuki or elsewhere in Belorod Oblast will be vital for mitigating the effectiveness of Russia's mobilization, and increasing Russia's logistical problems during the rasputitsa period. It is quite possible that Russia's north Lugansk front will collapse, and they'll be forced to retreat back south of the Siversky Donets.
As I love maps, and you seem to also, heres some detailed topographic maps of the region.
http://www.ua-maps.com/images/ukraine/t ... kaya_1.jpg
http://freemap.com.ua/maps/genshtab/m-37-089.jpg
It's clear to see that Svatove lies below the valley ridge just west of the Krasna river. That should make it hard to defend from Russia's point of view.
As for maps - I love a good map - I'm one of those people who collects OS maps; I'm even in the process of making my own Googlemap for Ukraine (borrowing someone else's line for the frontline - which will be out of date before I'm done with what I'm looking to do), if only to show those logistically important aspects, such as the rivers, railways and roads in Northern Luhansk - where all the action is at the moment.
In doing so, I noticed that I was following the wrong tributary of the Zherebets, it goes further North and East than I had traced it - but still originates in Ukraine itself.
As for Troitske - the point there is that they can reach it without having to cross any more rivers - they're already over the Oskil.
Russia may or may not fall back straight to the S-D river, who can tell with these idiots; but they've still got those defensible rivers they could very easily regroup at. On top of that, of course, Ukraine aren't obliged to secure less important areas that Russia runs away from if there's little military value in doing so.
Actually British soldiers used to buy tampons for the same purpose, but at least other kit such as tourniquets were provided. These poor buggers were getting precisely nothing.Zhivago wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:19 pmTampons you mean? That's what they were told in a video I saw.Sandydragon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 2:46 pmTons of T-34s still in storage apparently! Not that they will have any fuel for them. Or ammunition. From one of the reports I read the new conscripts are [highlight=]buying their own first aid kits.
Hopefully the Ukrainians will adapt. They seem to be much more adaptable than the Russians. I think it would be interesting to look at the 'ground pressure' of the various military vehicles...Which Tyler wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 3:09 pmThat's what I thought, until I posted this a couple of days ago.Zhivago wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 12:44 pm It's a little premature to talk about rasputitsa just yet. Sure, it's coming, but I think it'll only start to be an issue around mid-October. That's still plenty of time for Ukraine to get to Svatove and up the T-1312 to Troitske like you mention. And/or they might go to Starobilsk, which is actually closer to Svatove than Troitske. Will depend on how much resistance they encounter.
Cutting off Russia's supply lines from Valyuki or elsewhere in Belorod Oblast will be vital for mitigating the effectiveness of Russia's mobilization, and increasing Russia's logistical problems during the rasputitsa period. It is quite possible that Russia's north Lugansk front will collapse, and they'll be forced to retreat back south of the Siversky Donets.
As I love maps, and you seem to also, heres some detailed topographic maps of the region.
http://www.ua-maps.com/images/ukraine/t ... kaya_1.jpg
http://freemap.com.ua/maps/genshtab/m-37-089.jpg
It's clear to see that Svatove lies below the valley ridge just west of the Krasna river. That should make it hard to defend from Russia's point of view.
As for maps - I love a good map - I'm one of those people who collects OS maps; I'm even in the process of making my own Googlemap for Ukraine (borrowing someone else's line for the frontline - which will be out of date before I'm done with what I'm looking to do), if only to show those logistically important aspects, such as the rivers, railways and roads in Northern Luhansk - where all the action is at the moment.
In doing so, I noticed that I was following the wrong tributary of the Zherebets, it goes further North and East than I had traced it - but still originates in Ukraine itself.
As for Troitske - the point there is that they can reach it without having to cross any more rivers - they're already over the Oskil.
Russia may or may not fall back straight to the S-D river, who can tell with these idiots; but they've still got those defensible rivers they could very easily regroup at. On top of that, of course, Ukraine aren't obliged to secure less important areas that Russia runs away from if there's little military value in doing so.
Sandydragon wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 4:32 pm Width of tracks also important but wheeled vehicles will struggle in the mid and thats most logistics vehicles stuck.
Yup
Always want to believe that they have inside info. Maybe they do...Dear subscribers and guests of the channel! Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin held the official part of persuading Lukashenka in Sochi, while the unofficial part took place a day earlier. The main topics of persuasion were the recognition of the "referendums" that are taking place these days in the occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions of Ukraine and the recognition of "new territories", after all the formal procedures, as part of the Russian Federation. On this issue, after the discussion, Lukashenka promised to think everything over at home, but it was clear that the decision would be negative. Lukashenka's main argument sounded like: “Volodya, you see how many problems we have because of the sanctions. Do you want that after the recognition (of the occupied territories by Russian) sanctions strangle not only you, but also me? Russia is big, you will get out, but it is very hard for me. » Putin's promises to allocate a $5 billion loan to cover the costs of the Republic of Belarus did not help in persuading on this issue. Lukashenko said the loan was vital, but asked Putin not to press the confession. As for the issue of mobilization in the Republic of Belarus, here Lukashenka categorically took a stand and did not even want to listen to the arguments of the Russian president. True, Lukashenka agreed to help with weapons from the Belarusian military warehouses and Belarus should receive a rather large urgent order for tailoring uniforms for the mobilized Russian military. That's basically all the agreements. The truth was not without incident. During lunch, Lukashenka, in the presence of several people, asked the Russian president an unexpected question: “Volodya, tell me, And how long are you going to live? A stunned Putin asked why this question, Lukashenko replied that rattling nuclear weapons is good when it's a bluff, and if not a bluff, then it's suicide. To this, Putin said that it was too early to talk about this and changed the subject. Unlike Putin, Lukashenka is clearly not going to die in the near future either from oncology or from a nuclear catastrophe, he has big plans for the future. For several weeks now, Lukashenka has been negotiating through intermediaries with the leadership of the United States, the European Union and several European countries separately. Moreover, serious progress has been made in these negotiations and Lukashenka clearly does not intend to fight with the whole world for the sake of friendship with Putin. Lukashenka, in a conversation with his inner circle, absolutely correctly formulated Putin's position with the old saying "our motto is four words - drown yourself, drown another."
Hope soThe Kremlin decided not to hurry with the official “annexation” of the Ukrainian territories and the complete closure of the borders - so as not to anger the Russians, dissatisfied with the mobilization “There are no extra security forces now”
Assuming that’s accurate, that’s a bit concern for Putin if one of his closest allies/puppets is now kicking back.Zhivago wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:53 pm Always find this one an amusing read
https://t.me/s/generalsvr
Always want to believe that they have inside info. Maybe they do...Dear subscribers and guests of the channel! Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin held the official part of persuading Lukashenka in Sochi, while the unofficial part took place a day earlier. The main topics of persuasion were the recognition of the "referendums" that are taking place these days in the occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions of Ukraine and the recognition of "new territories", after all the formal procedures, as part of the Russian Federation. On this issue, after the discussion, Lukashenka promised to think everything over at home, but it was clear that the decision would be negative. Lukashenka's main argument sounded like: “Volodya, you see how many problems we have because of the sanctions. Do you want that after the recognition (of the occupied territories by Russian) sanctions strangle not only you, but also me? Russia is big, you will get out, but it is very hard for me. » Putin's promises to allocate a $5 billion loan to cover the costs of the Republic of Belarus did not help in persuading on this issue. Lukashenko said the loan was vital, but asked Putin not to press the confession. As for the issue of mobilization in the Republic of Belarus, here Lukashenka categorically took a stand and did not even want to listen to the arguments of the Russian president. True, Lukashenka agreed to help with weapons from the Belarusian military warehouses and Belarus should receive a rather large urgent order for tailoring uniforms for the mobilized Russian military. That's basically all the agreements. The truth was not without incident. During lunch, Lukashenka, in the presence of several people, asked the Russian president an unexpected question: “Volodya, tell me, And how long are you going to live? A stunned Putin asked why this question, Lukashenko replied that rattling nuclear weapons is good when it's a bluff, and if not a bluff, then it's suicide. To this, Putin said that it was too early to talk about this and changed the subject. Unlike Putin, Lukashenka is clearly not going to die in the near future either from oncology or from a nuclear catastrophe, he has big plans for the future. For several weeks now, Lukashenka has been negotiating through intermediaries with the leadership of the United States, the European Union and several European countries separately. Moreover, serious progress has been made in these negotiations and Lukashenka clearly does not intend to fight with the whole world for the sake of friendship with Putin. Lukashenka, in a conversation with his inner circle, absolutely correctly formulated Putin's position with the old saying "our motto is four words - drown yourself, drown another."
I mean, surely that's a case of extending the spin that Putin's currently evincing - they're not losing to "inferior" Ukraine, but to a proxy war with NATO. Tell yourselves whatever you need to in order to feel better about getting your bottom smacked.Which Tyler wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:01 am Poland's foreign minister has now said that if Russia uses even a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, NATO should make it clear it will respond with a conventional strike mission, probably cruise missiles and air-launched weapons from outside Ukrainian territory aimed at specific Russian-held targets in Ukraine.
The idea seems to be not striking inarguable Russian soil and not using WMDs themselves but also launching a counterstrike on a large enough scale to deter further actions.
I'm comfortable with this idea, until....
Russian channels on Telegram are now (I'm told) suggesting that "losing" a confrontation against NATO is something they can accept but not against "inferior" Ukraine.
Which rather puckered my pucker
I'm starting to think that the least humulating defeat for Putin is if NATO defeats Russia rather than Ukraine. I start to think he is practically goading NATO to intervene so that he can lose to a stronger opponent. If he loses to smaller and weaker Ukraine then it is a greater humiliation for him.Which Tyler wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 9:01 am Poland's foreign minister has now said that if Russia uses even a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine, NATO should make it clear it will respond with a conventional strike mission, probably cruise missiles and air-launched weapons from outside Ukrainian territory aimed at specific Russian-held targets in Ukraine.
The idea seems to be not striking inarguable Russian soil and not using WMDs themselves but also launching a counterstrike on a large enough scale to deter further actions.
I'm comfortable with this idea, until....
Russian channels on Telegram are now (I'm told) suggesting that "losing" a confrontation against NATO is something they can accept but not against "inferior" Ukraine.
Which rather puckered my pucker
Lukashenko has always been a somewhat pragmatic leader. Playing both sides as much as possible. Bit like Erdogan, but obviously more tilted towards Russia. Unless the West has clear plans to oust him, they should try to peel him away from Putin.Sandydragon wrote: ↑Fri Sep 30, 2022 8:52 amAssuming that’s accurate, that’s a bit concern for Putin if one of his closest allies/puppets is now kicking back.Zhivago wrote: ↑Wed Sep 28, 2022 8:53 pm Always find this one an amusing read
https://t.me/s/generalsvr
Always want to believe that they have inside info. Maybe they do...Dear subscribers and guests of the channel! Yesterday, Russian President Vladimir Putin held the official part of persuading Lukashenka in Sochi, while the unofficial part took place a day earlier. The main topics of persuasion were the recognition of the "referendums" that are taking place these days in the occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporozhye and Kherson regions of Ukraine and the recognition of "new territories", after all the formal procedures, as part of the Russian Federation. On this issue, after the discussion, Lukashenka promised to think everything over at home, but it was clear that the decision would be negative. Lukashenka's main argument sounded like: “Volodya, you see how many problems we have because of the sanctions. Do you want that after the recognition (of the occupied territories by Russian) sanctions strangle not only you, but also me? Russia is big, you will get out, but it is very hard for me. » Putin's promises to allocate a $5 billion loan to cover the costs of the Republic of Belarus did not help in persuading on this issue. Lukashenko said the loan was vital, but asked Putin not to press the confession. As for the issue of mobilization in the Republic of Belarus, here Lukashenka categorically took a stand and did not even want to listen to the arguments of the Russian president. True, Lukashenka agreed to help with weapons from the Belarusian military warehouses and Belarus should receive a rather large urgent order for tailoring uniforms for the mobilized Russian military. That's basically all the agreements. The truth was not without incident. During lunch, Lukashenka, in the presence of several people, asked the Russian president an unexpected question: “Volodya, tell me, And how long are you going to live? A stunned Putin asked why this question, Lukashenko replied that rattling nuclear weapons is good when it's a bluff, and if not a bluff, then it's suicide. To this, Putin said that it was too early to talk about this and changed the subject. Unlike Putin, Lukashenka is clearly not going to die in the near future either from oncology or from a nuclear catastrophe, he has big plans for the future. For several weeks now, Lukashenka has been negotiating through intermediaries with the leadership of the United States, the European Union and several European countries separately. Moreover, serious progress has been made in these negotiations and Lukashenka clearly does not intend to fight with the whole world for the sake of friendship with Putin. Lukashenka, in a conversation with his inner circle, absolutely correctly formulated Putin's position with the old saying "our motto is four words - drown yourself, drown another."
