Re: If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...
Posted: Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:12 am
Also reportedly further progress on the central Kherson bridgehead - to Chkalove
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Also worth pointing out, that Ukraine have learned lessons, they don't have any large formations, with the possible exceptions of specific assaults like the other night around Kherson; and then they dissipate again ASAP to avoid exposing themselves to thermobarics.Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:10 am If tactical nukes are to be used, then it would be against large Ukrainian formations with a view to occupying the ground once regular troops had finished them off. But if the Russian army can't advance onto radioactive ground then a tactical nuke becomes pointless, other than as a petulant gesture.
Completely agree about Ukrainian forces which adds a problem for Russia as their command and control is so inflexible that they probably can't respond in time to any intelligence indicating where Ukrainian formations are. So either they target a point and then attack (and as I mentioned below thats got some issues with their own kit and training) or they hit something immobile like a train station or supply hub.Which Tyler wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:29 amAlso worth pointing out, that Ukraine have learned lessons, they don't have any large formations, with the possible exceptions of specific assaults like the other night around Kherson; and then they dissipate again ASAP to avoid exposing themselves to thermobarics.Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:10 am If tactical nukes are to be used, then it would be against large Ukrainian formations with a view to occupying the ground once regular troops had finished them off. But if the Russian army can't advance onto radioactive ground then a tactical nuke becomes pointless, other than as a petulant gesture.
There's no military- strategic advantage to Putin for using a tactical nuke. And even if there were, Russia wouldn't be able to actually capitalise on it (as you said). A strategic nuke will probably see the Black Sea Fleet destroyed, and ICBMs hitting any large concentration of Russian ammunition or manpower, possibly including in Russia itself; with Ukraine getting more HIMARS, and more equipment of every sort; and a very strong chance of NATO militaries allowing their soldiers to go off to Ukraine if they so wish.
The only advantage I can see for Putin using a tactical Nuke is that it gives him an optics off-ramp of being defeated by NATO rather than being defeated by Ukraine.
Do anything other that a tactical nuke, and he's inviting a nuclear response and the loss of any remaining allies (probably including N Korea).
This is what I was saying earlier. It seems that this is likely to be the least humiliating way out for Putin. I still have trouble with any normal rationale for predicting Putin's actions though, as his cost-benefit calculation is so warped by his paranoia.Which Tyler wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:29 amAlso worth pointing out, that Ukraine have learned lessons, they don't have any large formations, with the possible exceptions of specific assaults like the other night around Kherson; and then they dissipate again ASAP to avoid exposing themselves to thermobarics.Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 9:10 am If tactical nukes are to be used, then it would be against large Ukrainian formations with a view to occupying the ground once regular troops had finished them off. But if the Russian army can't advance onto radioactive ground then a tactical nuke becomes pointless, other than as a petulant gesture.
There's no military- strategic advantage to Putin for using a tactical nuke. And even if there were, Russia wouldn't be able to actually capitalise on it (as you said). A strategic nuke will probably see the Black Sea Fleet destroyed, and ICBMs hitting any large concentration of Russian ammunition or manpower, possibly including in Russia itself; with Ukraine getting more HIMARS, and more equipment of every sort; and a very strong chance of NATO militaries allowing their soldiers to go off to Ukraine if they so wish.
The only advantage I can see for Putin using a tactical Nuke is that it gives him an optics off-ramp of being defeated by NATO rather than being defeated by Ukraine.
Do anything other that a tactical nuke, and he's inviting a nuclear response and the loss of any remaining allies (probably including N Korea).
I don't think that he wants to lose to NATO as such, rather that he will only be able to accept defeat by NATO (we hope - the alternative of him not accepting any defeat at all is essentially end of days scenario). Not Ukraine, which he apparently has such extreme contempt for.Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:35 amIf he wants to lose to Nato then he is taking a huge gamble to get there, but I'm not arguing with your logic that might be on his mind.
No doubt his spin doctors will be hitting the propaganda hard to show the world how Nato attacked Russia. But would that really be bought by the Russians. He did start this war after all and one can only assume that the propaganda machine will have to work very hard to present this in a way to get sympathy for Putin rather than want him ousted.Zhivago wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:41 amI don't think that he wants to lose to NATO as such, rather that he will only be able to accept defeat by NATO (we hope - the alternative of him not accepting any defeat at all is essentially end of days scenario). Not Ukraine, which he apparently has such extreme contempt for.Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:35 amIf he wants to lose to Nato then he is taking a huge gamble to get there, but I'm not arguing with your logic that might be on his mind.
They're already spinning this yarn and more - rewriting history in fact.Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:44 amNo doubt his spin doctors will be hitting the propaganda hard to show the world how Nato attacked Russia. But would that really be bought by the Russians. He did start this war after all and one can only assume that the propaganda machine will have to work very hard to present this in a way to get sympathy for Putin rather than want him ousted.Zhivago wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:41 amI don't think that he wants to lose to NATO as such, rather that he will only be able to accept defeat by NATO (we hope - the alternative of him not accepting any defeat at all is essentially end of days scenario). Not Ukraine, which he apparently has such extreme contempt for.Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:35 amIf he wants to lose to Nato then he is taking a huge gamble to get there, but I'm not arguing with your logic that might be on his mind.
Repeat a lie often enough......Zhivago wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:49 amThey're already spinning this yarn and more - rewriting history in fact.Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:44 amNo doubt his spin doctors will be hitting the propaganda hard to show the world how Nato attacked Russia. But would that really be bought by the Russians. He did start this war after all and one can only assume that the propaganda machine will have to work very hard to present this in a way to get sympathy for Putin rather than want him ousted.Zhivago wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 10:41 am
I don't think that he wants to lose to NATO as such, rather that he will only be able to accept defeat by NATO (we hope - the alternative of him not accepting any defeat at all is essentially end of days scenario). Not Ukraine, which he apparently has such extreme contempt for.
Shit or bust time for the Russians. Thats a rapid advance and they either stop it in the next day or so or they will have to leg it. Not much sign of this advance slowing down and I'm guessing theres a lot of nervous Russian soldiers looking over their shoulders at the moment.Which Tyler wrote: ↑Mon Oct 03, 2022 3:53 pm
Just now - and things like this have a 24 hour delay on them, which Ukrainians are generally very keen on supporting