COVID19

[Digby]

Given your per. capita deaths list that places the US higher than Finland, perhaps we should’ve adopted Trump’s response rather than looking at Finland’s?!?!?

Sorry, should have been clearer about what the numbers in brackets were. They're the deaths per million, not the position in the list, ie the USA has 86 dead per million, Norway 28 per million and Finland 13 per million.

Where does China sit with their newly revised numbers that are a first attempt not to look like serial bullshitters?

[Banquo]

Given your per. capita deaths list that places the US higher than Finland, perhaps we should’ve adopted Trump’s response rather than looking at Finland’s?!?!?

Sorry, should have been clearer about what the numbers in brackets were. They're the deaths per million, not the position in the list, ie the USA has 86 dead per million, Norway 28 per million and Finland 13 per million.

Where does China sit with their newly revised numbers that are a first attempt not to look like serial bullshitters?

7th in total deaths, way down in per capita obviously (2 per million)

[Sandydragon]

No ones arguing the U.K. has played a blinder but, as I’ve said before, I’m not being drawn on the China comparison because, well, they’re run by a bunch of lying, genocidal ****s.

And the UK isn’t?

No. It's not in the same league of internal repression and avoidance of the truth.

[Mellsblue]

No ones arguing the U.K. has played a blinder but, as I’ve said before, I’m not being drawn on the China comparison because, well, they’re run by a bunch of lying, genocidal ****s.

And the UK isn’t?

No. It's not in the same league of internal repression and avoidance of the truth.

That didn’t really need saying....

[Sandydragon]

And the UK isn’t?

No. It's not in the same league of internal repression and avoidance of the truth.

That didn’t really need saying....

Apparently to some people it does.

[Son of Mathonwy]

I wonder if vapers are any better or worse?
And I wonder if the whole thing isn't just a load of Daily Mail bullshit, of course.

you wouldn't do that to guinea pigs ( hang on, they do..)
; 'Blah-blah says..'.= b'shit, but the other numbers may be worth a closer look.
(the only doods not going down with throaty coughs at our place before lockdown were the smokers, oddly)
The other piece of sensationo-journo waggy-tongue stuff was report of 'Patient Zero' first recorded case in China was geezer working in Virus research lab in Wuhan, and there is a facility a few miles from the said meat-market.
Has China released details of the first postive cases
( names, where they live, occupatons etc ), in the spirit of transparency ?
There is form such as SARS / Smallpox, with lab leaks.

Seriously though, it's best to completely ignore the Daily Mail. Wait till the broadsheets cover it at the very least. And then fact check it.

I checked out a Daily Mail article on emissions from electric cars a year or two back. Part of the headline was "and some electric cars are worse than petrol!".

I looked into it and found they were comparing the heaviest electric car with the lightest petrol car, and used electricity generated in the most fossil-fueled part of the USA. What they said was literally untrue anywhere the UK, no matter the car. So there's a reasonable chance that anything the Daily Mail says is bullshit (in the service of the fossil fuel industry, the tobacco industry, et al).

[Digby]

You looked into a story in the Mail to see if it was bollocks? Why not just assume yes, or better still ignore them totally?

[Galfon]

Seriously though, it's best to completely ignore the Daily Mail. Wait till the broadsheets cover it at the very least. And then fact check it.

That's a bit blinkered - you don't need to go to broadsheets to check things like sports results, weather, voting etc..or currently basic Covid numbers, sometimes available sharpish.
Never read the organ as such, but nowt wrong with an occasional skim for more unusual / whimsical stuff you'd never see in the stuffies.
There's scope for different angles looking any topic in this domain, I would suggest

[Son of Mathonwy]

You looked into a story in the Mail to see if it was bollocks? Why not just assume yes, or better still ignore them totally?

I thought I'd give them a chance ... but my in-depth research led me to exactly your view.

[Son of Mathonwy]

What is going on in Belgium? It's stormed past both Italy and Spain in the per capita deaths, and has almost taken 2nd place from Andorra.

However, it may all be down to the way they count the deaths. Belgium's numbers will be boosted because (per Wikipedia):

Belgium counts deaths occurring both in hospitals and elsewhere, like in care homes. Deaths with clinical symptoms of the coronavirus disease are considered as "suspicious" and are included in the figures of COVID-19 deaths, even if they were not tested.

They're obviously in a bad place, but where they really stand vs Spain, Italy, France, UK and Holland, who knows?

[Son of Mathonwy]

Seriously though, it's best to completely ignore the Daily Mail. Wait till the broadsheets cover it at the very least. And then fact check it.

That's a bit blinkered - you don't need to go to broadsheets to check things like sports results, weather, voting etc..or currently basic Covid numbers, sometimes available sharpish.
Never read the organ as such, but nowt wrong with an occasional skim for more unusual / whimsical stuff you'd never see in the stuffies.
There's scope for different angles looking any topic in this domain, I would suggest

I'll go straight to Viz for that

[Galfon]

I'll go straight to Viz for that

...there is a middle-ground, involving real-life people you know, sometimes more hilarious than
racist slag fartpants et al. - keep your options open i say!
Belgium was always going to struggle on the down slope with it's pop. density & travel hub status.
Covid won't go away in a hurry.Netherlands has highest Pop Den in EU which made their relaxed stance surprising.

[Mellsblue]

What is going on in Belgium? It's stormed past both Italy and Spain in the per capita deaths, and has almost taken 2nd place from Andorra.

However, it may all be down to the way they count the deaths. Belgium's numbers will be boosted because (per Wikipedia):

Belgium counts deaths occurring both in hospitals and elsewhere, like in care homes. Deaths with clinical symptoms of the coronavirus disease are considered as "suspicious" and are included in the figures of COVID-19 deaths, even if they were not tested.

They're obviously in a bad place, but where they really stand vs Spain, Italy, France, UK and Holland, who knows?

Third most densely populated country (major - not including the likes of Jersey, Monaco etc) in Europe with 98% of the population living in urban areas. Nearly 20% of the pop in Brussels.
Also, as you say diligent counting on care home deaths - a higher number than hospital deaths. Part of this, so I’ve read in a couple of places, is that Belgian culture means that the elderly are more reticent than most to be admitted into hospital. Bizarre. Not seen any evidence to confirm this mind.

[J Dory]

The covid Olympics. We will find something to be tribal about damn it.

[morepork]

A consensus sampling methodology coupled to a consensus test is required here. In an ideal world, populated by unicorns that shit magic mushrooms in ice cream, individual regions in each country would go to every 10th house, sample and pool samples from each sampled house, and get data specific for each region. The sampling would be systematic and provide real spatial data (where clusters of positive cases actually are) that would allow the definition of regional anomalies relative to the general population. This systematic approach would provide a mean for the local population over time and a map of concentrated infection. From this you would have true interpopulation variance that would allow an objective comparison of social mitigation between regions and a distinction of this essential biological point of difference from technical variance resulting from different tests conducted in different ways in diverse regions. It’s sampling 101. His would refine the timeline to resumption of normality and present a real metric for planning.

Why we are fucking around with this I do not know. If the current remedial efforts of governments the world over were up for peer review, most would be thrown in the bin if worthless anecdote.

[Galfon]

From what I’ve heard, anyone caught flouting they lockdown rules will be shot on sight and their estate will go to their local authority. Working name of Operation Two Birds One Stone.

With no end in sight to the lockdown, regular income streams are running dry.
Don't think TBOS will ramp up for now, but it will be another cut back/bail-out scenario.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-52329829

[Banquo]

Meanwhile, BBC continue to shine.....https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-52333540

[Digby]

It's a bad error, but they're fessing up and taking it on the chin, a standard many others never mind falling short of don't even consider

[Banquo]

It's a bad error, but they're fessing up and taking it on the chin, a standard many others never mind falling short of don't even consider

it is a bad error....and quite avoidable. I suppose its a trade off between having good headline and checking veracity.

[Digby]

It's a bad error, but they're fessing up and taking it on the chin, a standard many others never mind falling short of don't even consider

it is a bad error....and quite avoidable. I suppose its a trade off between having good headline and checking veracity.

The story came in from someone who didn't want to be named, understandably, so they should perhaps have left themselves more wriggle room in ascribing merely a purchasing role. Though I would certainly agree headline journalism is a curse

[Which Tyler]

The covid Olympics. We will find something to be tribal about damn it.

You're at least a month too late:
https://discourse.bomberblitz.com/t/cov ... 17502/7154

Daily Update :

We welcome to the leaderboard Gambia, Montenegro and Barbados. We now have 165 countries / territories on the leaderboard. If you’ve ever tried to work out exactly how many total countries and territories there are in the world… well, it isn’t easy. I’m running with something like 200. That is a lot of spread in a short time for a little virus. It is probably very proud of itself.

Joining the “Over 100” club today is UAE, Russia, Peru. However these were overshadowed by Ecuador smashing through the barrier with a 91% increase in cases, and Luxembourg with a 73% increase.

Up the top of the leaderboard and Germany have overtaken S Korea to move into 5th place. A non-impressive day from Germany racking up 2095 new cases which is only behind Italy for daily increase. Interestingly, Germany have the least number of deaths total out of any of the top 10 countries. Considering that their 2095 new cases in the last 24 hours would put them in 10th position ahead of UK on 1950 cases total… that’s a surprising effort. Must be the Schwarzbier. Drink more beer - helpful community message for the day.

The “Most Non-Improved” award today goes to the USA, and finally we are starting to see what might be the first signs of the real performance over there. 38% increase in cases is a very big number for a country already sitting in 8th place. From my numbers, you have to get down to Luxembourg in 46th place before that percentage is beaten. For the first time, the USA move ahead of Australia in terms of cases per million population. {shitabouttohitfan.gif}

In Australia, it does appear as if we have had a quieter day. 51 cases for the 24 hours is a much much much better number than the 100 odd from yesterday. It sits us at about a 13% increase, which is still more than we would like, but I’d consider that number good. It does still see us climb up a spot on the ladder to 20th position, leaving Qatar in our wake, (3 new cases Qatar??? really???).

Daily Update :

We welcome to the leaderboard Sint Maarten, Montserrat, Djibouti, Zambia, New Caledonia, Bermuda, Mauritius and Kyrgyzstan.

Joining the “Over 100” club today is Taiwan, Slovakia, Armenia, Panama and South Africa. Turkey has come from a long way back overnight to smash through that barrier with a 95% increase in cases.

The new “Millennial” today is Denmark, breaking through the 1000 case barrier and currently holding 16th spot on the leaderboard.

Up the top of the leaderboard, and S Korea falls two spots today to 8th. Clearly doing so well because they are insulated from the world by N Korea, still with zero cases. What epic self-isolators that country is. Racing past S Korea is France with a reasonable 18% growth, and USA with a completely unreasonable growth of 45%. Looking forward and Iran look at risk of losing 3rd spot as Spain, Germany and USA have some strong consistency in new cases and are closing in. I would of course never intimate that any of those countries have exponential growth, less I offend. Also a notable performance by UK with a 35% increase in cases. Boris will be disappointed… I think… it’s hard to tell given his early strategy appeared to be “let it ride”.

The “Most Non-Improved” award today goes to Brazil. A strong 53% increase in cases in the last 24 hours. This has come at the cost of the lives of 3 participants, which takes their total no-longer-participants to 4. At this time I have to address an issue. It has been drawn to my attention that some think Brazil should have won this award yesterday. Well I have consulted the AFL umpires handbook, and you are wrong, I am right. Nyah nah nah nah naaaah nah. So there. Real reason I raise this is because Brazil has now performed strongly over the past couple of days, and has a wealth of candidates to be new cases in the future. One to watch, particularly as they now sit in 22nd position, and are a threat to our #1 Southern Hemisphere title.

I thought we might check in on the “Handicap” event today. Sitting pretty at the top of the ladder is San Marino, with 4126 cases per million people. Followed by the Vatican City with 1248 (given they only have 1 case it is the equivalent of a guy in a rowboat leading the Sydney to Hobart Handicap). Faeroe Islands up next with 1187, Liechtenstein with 734, Iceland with 733 and Andorra with 686, before we get to Italy with 591. So in San Marino 0.4% of the population has tested positive, of those people 10% have not made it. Sobering.

In our little island home, the past 24 hours we have slipped down the leaderboard to 21st as Portugal pushed past us. However our performance would still be considered very poor as we have had a 31% increase in cases, and lost another member of our community. When we line ourselves up on the leaderboard, and consider our losses, we sit around about where we should be. The countries above us on the leaderboard that have less deaths are Austria, Denmark, Malaysia and now Portugal. The countries below us on the leaderboard that have more deaths are Indonesia, Philippines, Iraq, San Marino and Algeria. Our performance is pretty much par for the course, and as we look ahead to the 19th hole, our future currently projects very similar to those that are leading the way.

etc

[Mellsblue]

It's a bad error, but they're fessing up and taking it on the chin, a standard many others never mind falling short of don't even consider

it is a bad error....and quite avoidable. I suppose its a trade off between having good headline and checking veracity.

The story came in from someone who didn't want to be named, understandably, so they should perhaps have left themselves more wriggle room in ascribing merely a purchasing role. Though I would certainly agree headline journalism is a curse

I remember during the London bombings the BBC was rock solid on fact checking. Sky News and others had to walk back a number of reports. It seems needing a scoop to satisfy 24hr rolling news and social media has changed the way they operate. It’s a shame.

[Banquo]

no words tbh.

[Son of Mathonwy]

What is going on in Belgium? It's stormed past both Italy and Spain in the per capita deaths, and has almost taken 2nd place from Andorra.

However, it may all be down to the way they count the deaths. Belgium's numbers will be boosted because (per Wikipedia):

Belgium counts deaths occurring both in hospitals and elsewhere, like in care homes. Deaths with clinical symptoms of the coronavirus disease are considered as "suspicious" and are included in the figures of COVID-19 deaths, even if they were not tested.

They're obviously in a bad place, but where they really stand vs Spain, Italy, France, UK and Holland, who knows?

Third most densely populated country (major - not including the likes of Jersey, Monaco etc) in Europe with 98% of the population living in urban areas. Nearly 20% of the pop in Brussels.
Also, as you say diligent counting on care home deaths - a higher number than hospital deaths. Part of this, so I’ve read in a couple of places, is that Belgian culture means that the elderly are more reticent than most to be admitted into hospital. Bizarre. Not seen any evidence to confirm this mind.

It would be good if all countries could adopt the same definitions for Covid-19 cases and deaths. Or gave both confirmed and probable numbers. The USA has recently widened its definition to include "probable" cases and deaths:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

A confirmed case or death is defined by meeting confirmatory laboratory evidence for COVID-19. A probable case or death is defined by i) meeting clinical criteria AND epidemiologic evidence with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID-19; or ii) meeting presumptive laboratory evidence AND either clinical criteria OR epidemiologic evidence; or iii) meeting vital records criteria with no confirmatory laboratory testing performed for COVID19"

[fivepointer]

i can think of a few......

Great article from Peter Foster about the ventilator supply issue https://www.ft.com/content/5f393d77-8e5 ... 6efbc575ec