COVID19

[Son of Mathonwy]

It’s another 10% or so.

You seem remarkably sure that adding all non-hospital and all probable (but untested) cases and deaths would only add 10% to the total.

My feeling it that it would be much higher, nearer 50%.

But the point is, we don't know how much the reported numbers underestimate the truth.

Maybe it's 10%, maybe it's 50%, maybe it's something else. But it's definitely an underestimate. We need to know what it is.

I’m basing on figures released the other day that pointed toward 1600 deaths in care homes. That’s about 10% of the total, but I’m sure it will move on once accurate figures are available.

We need to do a lot of things right now and it’s the same people who are trying to keep those plates spinning. There are greater priorities than the public’s alleged need to know.

My "feeling" was based largely on data from Italy, Spain, France, Ireland and Belgium as per:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... u-suggests

However, looking at Eugene's ONS England & Wales figures for March we have:
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... nmarch2020
ONS deaths with Covid-19 as underlying cause: 3372

Compare this with England and Wales NHS numbers:
https://www.england.nhs.uk/2020/04/tota ... -of-death/
https://public.tableau.com/profile/publ ... inesummary
England & Wales NHS deaths (ie government number): 2261

So as of 31 March, the government number underestimates the deaths by 49.1%

[Son of Mathonwy]

You seem remarkably sure that adding all non-hospital and all probable (but untested) cases and deaths would only add 10% to the total.

My feeling it that it would be much higher, nearer 50%.

But the point is, we don't know how much the reported numbers underestimate the truth.

Maybe it's 10%, maybe it's 50%, maybe it's something else. But it's definitely an underestimate. We need to know what it is.

Why do you have that feeling? Genuine question.

He’s politically motivated.

See my last post. I'm fact motivated.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Are you saying it’s too early to draw definitive conclusions?

Not at all. I'm sure the info is there, even if the extra numbers would lag behind the hospital positive test figures a little. But that's no excuse for not giving them as they become available. I don't think I'm being overly cynical to see political gain as a possible motive for excluding them.

So, you have a ‘feeling’ it’s near 50% and also happy to draw definitive conclusions. You’re relying on your feelings to draw definitive conclusions.
You’re happy that the political gain is a ‘possible’ motive and you’re happy to draw definitive conclusions.
You’re happy that the info is there, ie in black and white on the ONS website, and you think that the govt is under-reporting for political gain. That the govt is under-reporting for political gain despite Hancock stating in public that he had a “high degree of confidence” that care home deaths are greater than realised?
The ONS is giving the true number as they get them. That’s assuming they are the true number. As per Banquo’s link, and his post previous to this, a death certificate should state COVID as the reason for death if symptoms of COVID were present, not if there is proof COVID caused death. Therefore, any elderly person with a cough is counted as a COVID victim. This could lead to inflated COVID deaths outside of hospitals. None of that screams of politically motivated under-reporting.
Again, it’s seems you are happy to believe the figures from the CCP but not the ONS. Strange.

"Definitive conclusions"? What part of "Maybe it's 10%, maybe it's 50%, maybe it's something else" do you not understand?

Anyway, that was then. Having done the analysis I can see the numbers indicate very strongly that, at least up to the end of March, the government were indeed underestimating the deaths by 49% or so.

And since they haven't changed their methodology, one would have to take as a base assumption that their current numbers are inaccurate to a similar degree.

[Mellsblue]

Why do you have that feeling? Genuine question.

He’s politically motivated.

See my last post. I'm fact motivated.

I thought you were ‘feeling’ motivated whilst the govt is ‘politically’ motivated to hide all that info you’ve easily found on the internet?

[Mellsblue]

Not at all. I'm sure the info is there, even if the extra numbers would lag behind the hospital positive test figures a little. But that's no excuse for not giving them as they become available. I don't think I'm being overly cynical to see political gain as a possible motive for excluding them.

So, you have a ‘feeling’ it’s near 50% and also happy to draw definitive conclusions. You’re relying on your feelings to draw definitive conclusions.
You’re happy that the political gain is a ‘possible’ motive and you’re happy to draw definitive conclusions.
You’re happy that the info is there, ie in black and white on the ONS website, and you think that the govt is under-reporting for political gain. That the govt is under-reporting for political gain despite Hancock stating in public that he had a “high degree of confidence” that care home deaths are greater than realised?
The ONS is giving the true number as they get them. That’s assuming they are the true number. As per Banquo’s link, and his post previous to this, a death certificate should state COVID as the reason for death if symptoms of COVID were present, not if there is proof COVID caused death. Therefore, any elderly person with a cough is counted as a COVID victim. This could lead to inflated COVID deaths outside of hospitals. None of that screams of politically motivated under-reporting.
Again, it’s seems you are happy to believe the figures from the CCP but not the ONS. Strange.

"Definitive conclusions"? What part of "Maybe it's 10%, maybe it's 50%, maybe it's something else" do you not understand?

Anyway, that was then. Having done the analysis I can see the numbers indicate very strongly that, at least up to the end of March, the government were indeed underestimating the deaths by 49% or so.

And since they haven't changed their methodology, one would have to take as a base assumption that their current numbers are inaccurate to a similar degree.

It was your rush to make definitive conclusions only days ago whilst now admitting there is scope for interpretation, context, for numbers to change etc etc

[Son of Mathonwy]

To answer the rest of this:

The ONS is giving the true number as they get them. That’s assuming they are the true number. As per Banquo’s link, and his post previous to this, a death certificate should state COVID as the reason for death if symptoms of COVID were present, not if there is proof COVID caused death. Therefore, any elderly person with a cough is counted as a COVID victim. This could lead to inflated COVID deaths outside of hospitals. None of that screams of politically motivated under-reporting.

Only if the "cough" was part of the disease that killed them, ie Covid-19 appeared to be a cause of their death - in the judgement of their doctor.

If they had a cough and then suddenly had a stroke, Covid-19 wouldn't be given as the cause.

I'd be much happier if there were enough tests available that everything could be verified, but under the circumstances this is the only practical way to proceed.

Again, it’s seems you are happy to believe the figures from the CCP but not the ONS. Strange.

I do believe the ONS figures. I base my analysis on them. It's the government's figures I don't believe, because I know for a fact that they're excluding something like 50% of the Covid-19 deaths.

And yes, the Chinese figures may well be inaccurate. They amended them upwards recently, by nearly 40%, and a good thing too. It looks like our government should make a large amendment as well.

[Son of Mathonwy]

He’s politically motivated.

See my last post. I'm fact motivated.

I thought you were ‘feeling’ motivated whilst the govt is ‘politically’ motivated to hide all that info you’ve easily found on the internet?

What the government is doing is spin. The numbers ARE out there, but the goverment is trumpeting different numbers as the official ones. Just like they kept saying 50,000 nurses during the election. They'll just keep saying it. As long as it's not strictly speaking a lie - it is the true number of hospital deaths tested positive for Covid-19 - that's enough for them to get away with it for the majority of the press. Say it enough and that is the number most people will remember.

[Son of Mathonwy]

It was your rush to make definitive conclusions only days ago whilst now admitting there is scope for interpretation, context, for numbers to change etc etc

I honestly have no idea what you're talking about.

[Mellsblue]

To answer the rest of this:

The ONS is giving the true number as they get them. That’s assuming they are the true number. As per Banquo’s link, and his post previous to this, a death certificate should state COVID as the reason for death if symptoms of COVID were present, not if there is proof COVID caused death. Therefore, any elderly person with a cough is counted as a COVID victim. This could lead to inflated COVID deaths outside of hospitals. None of that screams of politically motivated under-reporting.

Only if the "cough" was part of the disease that killed them, ie Covid-19 appeared to be a cause of their death - in the judgement of their doctor.

If they had a cough and then suddenly had a stroke, Covid-19 wouldn't be given as the cause.

I'd be much happier if there were enough tests available that everything could be verified, but under the circumstances this is the only practical way to proceed.

Again, it’s seems you are happy to believe the figures from the CCP but not the ONS. Strange.

I do believe the ONS figures. I base my analysis on them. It's the government's figures I don't believe, because I know for a fact that they're excluding something like 50% of the Covid-19 deaths.

And yes, the Chinese figures may well be inaccurate. They amended them upwards recently, by nearly 40%, and a good thing too. It looks like our government should make a large amendment as well.

Judgement of the doctor, the rules under which they operate have been loosened a lot, with the presumption that a COVID symptom = COVID. That doesn’t strike me as a govt attempt to underplay the numbers, in fact it will lead to an overplay of the numbers.

I’m glad you realise that things will change as we go along and making definitive judgements at the start of this is, at best, flawed.

[Mellsblue]

It was your rush to make definitive conclusions only days ago whilst now admitting there is scope for interpretation, context, for numbers to change etc etc

I honestly have no idea what you're talking about.

See my previous post.

[Son of Mathonwy]

To answer the rest of this:

The ONS is giving the true number as they get them. That’s assuming they are the true number. As per Banquo’s link, and his post previous to this, a death certificate should state COVID as the reason for death if symptoms of COVID were present, not if there is proof COVID caused death. Therefore, any elderly person with a cough is counted as a COVID victim. This could lead to inflated COVID deaths outside of hospitals. None of that screams of politically motivated under-reporting.

Only if the "cough" was part of the disease that killed them, ie Covid-19 appeared to be a cause of their death - in the judgement of their doctor.

If they had a cough and then suddenly had a stroke, Covid-19 wouldn't be given as the cause.

I'd be much happier if there were enough tests available that everything could be verified, but under the circumstances this is the only practical way to proceed.

Again, it’s seems you are happy to believe the figures from the CCP but not the ONS. Strange.

I do believe the ONS figures. I base my analysis on them. It's the government's figures I don't believe, because I know for a fact that they're excluding something like 50% of the Covid-19 deaths.

And yes, the Chinese figures may well be inaccurate. They amended them upwards recently, by nearly 40%, and a good thing too. It looks like our government should make a large amendment as well.

Judgement of the doctor, the rules under which they operate have been loosened a lot, with the presumption that a COVID symptom = COVID. That doesn’t strike me as a govt attempt to underplay the numbers, in fact it will lead to an overplay of the numbers.

I’m glad you realise that things will change as we go along and making definitive judgements at the start of this is, at best, flawed.

Well, if it's good enough for the US CDC:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

We can't have complete certainty over the numbers (if that's what you mean by "definitive judgements"). We'll never know the exact number of Covid-19 deaths. But that doesn't mean that we accept anything.

We should have the best estimate of the number. Not an underestimate that is "accurate" only in the sense that it accurately captures about 2/3 of the true number. That's actually colossally inaccurate.

It would be far better to have an estimate which is closer to the real figure, even if it's only to the nearest 100 (or god knows, even a range of figures, even if that's a bit scary for a non-scientist). That would be better than a precise figure which is almost certainly several hundred short of the real thing. Today's number is 888. I can say with near-certainty that that figure is wrong, and the real number is much closer to 1300. Maybe it's 1269, maybe it's 1375, maybe it's 1415, who knows, but it's not 888.

If this kind of estimation blows people's minds too much, then they should add the ONS numbers into the headline figures as soon as they are available, preferably on a weekly basis.

Maybe you trust this government, and you don't think they're massaging the figures here. But ask yourself, what would you think if China was doing this with the figures, if we knew for a fact they were leaving out something like 50% of them? Would you give them the benefit of the doubt?

[Mellsblue]

To answer the rest of this:


Only if the "cough" was part of the disease that killed them, ie Covid-19 appeared to be a cause of their death - in the judgement of their doctor.

If they had a cough and then suddenly had a stroke, Covid-19 wouldn't be given as the cause.

I'd be much happier if there were enough tests available that everything could be verified, but under the circumstances this is the only practical way to proceed.


I do believe the ONS figures. I base my analysis on them. It's the government's figures I don't believe, because I know for a fact that they're excluding something like 50% of the Covid-19 deaths.

And yes, the Chinese figures may well be inaccurate. They amended them upwards recently, by nearly 40%, and a good thing too. It looks like our government should make a large amendment as well.

Judgement of the doctor, the rules under which they operate have been loosened a lot, with the presumption that a COVID symptom = COVID. That doesn’t strike me as a govt attempt to underplay the numbers, in fact it will lead to an overplay of the numbers.

I’m glad you realise that things will change as we go along and making definitive judgements at the start of this is, at best, flawed.

Well, if it's good enough for the US CDC:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

We can't have complete certainty over the numbers (if that's what you mean by "definitive judgements"). We'll never know the exact number of Covid-19 deaths. But that doesn't mean that we accept anything.

We should have the best estimate of the number. Not an underestimate that is "accurate" only in the sense that it accurately captures about 2/3 of the true number. That's actually colossally inaccurate.

It would be far better to have an estimate which is closer to the real figure, even if it's only to the nearest 100 (or god knows, even a range of figures, even if that's a bit scary for a non-scientist). That would be better than a precise figure which is almost certainly several hundred short of the real thing. Today's number is 888. I can say with near-certainty that that figure is wrong, and the real number is much closer to 1300. Maybe it's 1269, maybe it's 1375, maybe it's 1415, who knows, but it's not 888.

If this kind of estimation blows people's minds too much, then they should add the ONS numbers into the headline figures as soon as they are available, preferably on a weekly basis.

Maybe you trust this government, and you don't think they're massaging the figures here. But ask yourself, what would you think if China was doing this with the figures, if we knew for a fact they were leaving out something like 50% of them? Would you give them the benefit of the doubt?

I can’t say anything more than the ONS release the figures once they’re confirmed. The figures are so widely available that you’ve posted them here. You’ve clearly foiled the worst cover up in history.

[canta_brian]

Judgement of the doctor, the rules under which they operate have been loosened a lot, with the presumption that a COVID symptom = COVID. That doesn’t strike me as a govt attempt to underplay the numbers, in fact it will lead to an overplay of the numbers.

I’m glad you realise that things will change as we go along and making definitive judgements at the start of this is, at best, flawed.

Well, if it's good enough for the US CDC:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

We can't have complete certainty over the numbers (if that's what you mean by "definitive judgements"). We'll never know the exact number of Covid-19 deaths. But that doesn't mean that we accept anything.

We should have the best estimate of the number. Not an underestimate that is "accurate" only in the sense that it accurately captures about 2/3 of the true number. That's actually colossally inaccurate.

It would be far better to have an estimate which is closer to the real figure, even if it's only to the nearest 100 (or god knows, even a range of figures, even if that's a bit scary for a non-scientist). That would be better than a precise figure which is almost certainly several hundred short of the real thing. Today's number is 888. I can say with near-certainty that that figure is wrong, and the real number is much closer to 1300. Maybe it's 1269, maybe it's 1375, maybe it's 1415, who knows, but it's not 888.

If this kind of estimation blows people's minds too much, then they should add the ONS numbers into the headline figures as soon as they are available, preferably on a weekly basis.

Maybe you trust this government, and you don't think they're massaging the figures here. But ask yourself, what would you think if China was doing this with the figures, if we knew for a fact they were leaving out something like 50% of them? Would you give them the benefit of the doubt?

I can’t say anything more than the ONS release the figures once they’re confirmed. The figures are so widely available that you’ve posted them here. You’ve clearly foiled the worst cover up in history.

You’re entirely, and intentionally missing the point. This government has form. Announce a best case scenario in the full knowledge that most people will never see the true numbers from the ONS. It’s the same playbook as announcing billions of support for business that has so far failed to be accessible. It’s the willingness to treat the truth as a malleable substance that can be bent any which way, done in the full knowledge that a complicit media won’t call them to account. Even when occasionally called to account they know the messaging war has already been won. Far fewer will see the retraction than the headline. This is what happens when your government is peopled by journalists, or more accurately, columnists.

[Digby]

Any government is going to try and put a positive interpretation on the numbers and on what they're doing to arrest/balloon those numbers depending on whether they're talking about coronavirus or PPE. The UK government is certainly behaving like a bunch of politicians, but we're backed by good independent analysis, a free if more than a little weird press, and we don't have the ills of China, Russia, Brazil or the USA to contend with

Basically we don't stand out much from other countries in Western Europe, and if there was somewhere in the world I'd choose to be when it comes to stuff like this it's Western Europe

[Son of Mathonwy]

Any government is going to try and put a positive interpretation on the numbers and on what they're doing to arrest/balloon those numbers depending on whether they're talking about coronavirus or PPE. The UK government is certainly behaving like a bunch of politicians, but we're backed by good independent analysis, a free if more than a little weird press, and we don't have the ills of China, Russia, Brazil or the USA to contend with

Basically we don't stand out much from other countries in Western Europe, and if there was somewhere in the world I'd choose to be when it comes to stuff like this it's Western Europe

When you say "stuff like this" I assume you mean "political spin" and not "deadly epidemics"?

[Sandydragon]

Well, if it's good enough for the US CDC:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

We can't have complete certainty over the numbers (if that's what you mean by "definitive judgements"). We'll never know the exact number of Covid-19 deaths. But that doesn't mean that we accept anything.

We should have the best estimate of the number. Not an underestimate that is "accurate" only in the sense that it accurately captures about 2/3 of the true number. That's actually colossally inaccurate.

It would be far better to have an estimate which is closer to the real figure, even if it's only to the nearest 100 (or god knows, even a range of figures, even if that's a bit scary for a non-scientist). That would be better than a precise figure which is almost certainly several hundred short of the real thing. Today's number is 888. I can say with near-certainty that that figure is wrong, and the real number is much closer to 1300. Maybe it's 1269, maybe it's 1375, maybe it's 1415, who knows, but it's not 888.

If this kind of estimation blows people's minds too much, then they should add the ONS numbers into the headline figures as soon as they are available, preferably on a weekly basis.

Maybe you trust this government, and you don't think they're massaging the figures here. But ask yourself, what would you think if China was doing this with the figures, if we knew for a fact they were leaving out something like 50% of them? Would you give them the benefit of the doubt?

I can’t say anything more than the ONS release the figures once they’re confirmed. The figures are so widely available that you’ve posted them here. You’ve clearly foiled the worst cover up in history.

You’re entirely, and intentionally missing the point. This government has form. Announce a best case scenario in the full knowledge that most people will never see the true numbers from the ONS. It’s the same playbook as announcing billions of support for business that has so far failed to be accessible. It’s the willingness to treat the truth as a malleable substance that can be bent any which way, done in the full knowledge that a complicit media won’t call them to account. Even when occasionally called to account they know the messaging war has already been won. Far fewer will see the retraction than the headline. This is what happens when your government is peopled by journalists, or more accurately, columnists.

I think you’re another who is overplaying the political nature of this. No one has denied that the figures presented daily don’t provide the complete picture. There are issues in ensuring the accuracy of deaths outside of hospitals, including the timeliness of reporting which have cause a problem. Not as big a problem as some people are trying to make out and perhaps consider the officials who are working hard to make some sense of this as well as enacting other business continuity plans. Consider also that if the government releases figures that are shown to be inaccurate, they will be accused of lying by those with a political axe to grind. In other words they can’t win so they are using a metric they can trust to display the trend.

[Sandydragon]

The government graphs are also starting to show retrospective figures for deaths so calling this a cover up is absurd.

Compared to the problems with PPE it’s simply that that but a priority.

[canta_brian]

The government graphs are also starting to show retrospective figures for deaths so calling this a cover up is absurd.

Compared to the problems with PPE it’s simply that that but a priority.

The 400,000 gowns from turkey have been delayed and won’t arrived today as announced.

See, that’s the issue yet again. Announce in great fanfare the best case and hide from the worst.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Judgement of the doctor, the rules under which they operate have been loosened a lot, with the presumption that a COVID symptom = COVID. That doesn’t strike me as a govt attempt to underplay the numbers, in fact it will lead to an overplay of the numbers.

I’m glad you realise that things will change as we go along and making definitive judgements at the start of this is, at best, flawed.

Well, if it's good enough for the US CDC:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

We can't have complete certainty over the numbers (if that's what you mean by "definitive judgements"). We'll never know the exact number of Covid-19 deaths. But that doesn't mean that we accept anything.

We should have the best estimate of the number. Not an underestimate that is "accurate" only in the sense that it accurately captures about 2/3 of the true number. That's actually colossally inaccurate.

It would be far better to have an estimate which is closer to the real figure, even if it's only to the nearest 100 (or god knows, even a range of figures, even if that's a bit scary for a non-scientist). That would be better than a precise figure which is almost certainly several hundred short of the real thing. Today's number is 888. I can say with near-certainty that that figure is wrong, and the real number is much closer to 1300. Maybe it's 1269, maybe it's 1375, maybe it's 1415, who knows, but it's not 888.

If this kind of estimation blows people's minds too much, then they should add the ONS numbers into the headline figures as soon as they are available, preferably on a weekly basis.

Maybe you trust this government, and you don't think they're massaging the figures here. But ask yourself, what would you think if China was doing this with the figures, if we knew for a fact they were leaving out something like 50% of them? Would you give them the benefit of the doubt?

I can’t say anything more than the ONS release the figures once they’re confirmed. The figures are so widely available that you’ve posted them here. You’ve clearly foiled the worst cover up in history.

Way to not respond to any of my points.

The government has not added the extra ONS numbers for March to its own. That's all we really need to know when it comes to trusting them. It will be interesting to see what happens when the ONS numbers for April come out, probably mid-May, as they are surely going to be many thousands greater than the government's.

On spin, I refer you to my earlier post:

What the government is doing is spin. The numbers ARE out there, but the goverment is trumpeting different numbers as the official ones. Just like they kept saying 50,000 nurses during the election. They'll just keep saying it. As long as it's not strictly speaking a lie - it is the true number of hospital deaths tested positive for Covid-19 - that's enough for them to get away with it for the majority of the press. Say it enough and that is the number most people will remember.

On China: look, just be honest with youself, even if you don't admit it here. If China was doing the same thing with its figures would you really give it the same benefit of the doubt?

[Sandydragon]

The government graphs are also starting to show retrospective figures for deaths so calling this a cover up is absurd.

Compared to the problems with PPE it’s simply that that but a priority.

The 400,000 gowns from turkey have been delayed and won’t arrived today as announced.

See, that’s the issue yet again. Announce in great fanfare the best case and hide from the worst.

Every government does that. Problem is met by response bulletin. Sometimes the details aren’t what we expect but if the government placed the order quickly, then they are right to point out that they are trying to solve the problem.

The problem may be outsides the governments ability to control and they may not have a sensible answer themselves yet when the PPEwill arrive.

[Digby]

Any government is going to try and put a positive interpretation on the numbers and on what they're doing to arrest/balloon those numbers depending on whether they're talking about coronavirus or PPE. The UK government is certainly behaving like a bunch of politicians, but we're backed by good independent analysis, a free if more than a little weird press, and we don't have the ills of China, Russia, Brazil or the USA to contend with

Basically we don't stand out much from other countries in Western Europe, and if there was somewhere in the world I'd choose to be when it comes to stuff like this it's Western Europe

When you say "stuff like this" I assume you mean "political spin" and not "deadly epidemics"?

I'd choose to be based in Western Europe for either of those things and quite a lot more besides

[Mellsblue]

Well, if it's good enough for the US CDC:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/us-data/

We can't have complete certainty over the numbers (if that's what you mean by "definitive judgements"). We'll never know the exact number of Covid-19 deaths. But that doesn't mean that we accept anything.

We should have the best estimate of the number. Not an underestimate that is "accurate" only in the sense that it accurately captures about 2/3 of the true number. That's actually colossally inaccurate.

It would be far better to have an estimate which is closer to the real figure, even if it's only to the nearest 100 (or god knows, even a range of figures, even if that's a bit scary for a non-scientist). That would be better than a precise figure which is almost certainly several hundred short of the real thing. Today's number is 888. I can say with near-certainty that that figure is wrong, and the real number is much closer to 1300. Maybe it's 1269, maybe it's 1375, maybe it's 1415, who knows, but it's not 888.

If this kind of estimation blows people's minds too much, then they should add the ONS numbers into the headline figures as soon as they are available, preferably on a weekly basis.

Maybe you trust this government, and you don't think they're massaging the figures here. But ask yourself, what would you think if China was doing this with the figures, if we knew for a fact they were leaving out something like 50% of them? Would you give them the benefit of the doubt?

I can’t say anything more than the ONS release the figures once they’re confirmed. The figures are so widely available that you’ve posted them here. You’ve clearly foiled the worst cover up in history.

Way to not respond to any of my points.

The government has not added the extra ONS numbers for March to its own. That's all we really need to know when it comes to trusting them. It will be interesting to see what happens when the ONS numbers for April come out, probably mid-May, as they are surely going to be many thousands greater than the government's.

On spin, I refer you to my earlier post:

What the government is doing is spin. The numbers ARE out there, but the goverment is trumpeting different numbers as the official ones. Just like they kept saying 50,000 nurses during the election. They'll just keep saying it. As long as it's not strictly speaking a lie - it is the true number of hospital deaths tested positive for Covid-19 - that's enough for them to get away with it for the majority of the press. Say it enough and that is the number most people will remember.

On China: look, just be honest with youself, even if you don't admit it here. If China was doing the same thing with its figures would you really give it the same benefit of the doubt?

Well, it seems you’ve got your wish that we should learn from China.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Any government is going to try and put a positive interpretation on the numbers and on what they're doing to arrest/balloon those numbers depending on whether they're talking about coronavirus or PPE. The UK government is certainly behaving like a bunch of politicians, but we're backed by good independent analysis, a free if more than a little weird press, and we don't have the ills of China, Russia, Brazil or the USA to contend with

Basically we don't stand out much from other countries in Western Europe, and if there was somewhere in the world I'd choose to be when it comes to stuff like this it's Western Europe

When you say "stuff like this" I assume you mean "political spin" and not "deadly epidemics"?

I'd choose to be based in Western Europe for either of those things and quite a lot more besides

So, assuming you don't think unnecessary death is a good thing, you must think that the numbers coming out of South Korea, Singapore, Taiwan etc, despite being reported as several orders of magnitude less than ours, are actually greater than ours?

[Which Tyler]

RIP Auntie Joy

87 years old, and died of a chest infection that didn't respond to antibiotics.

But no mention of COVID, because whilst it is present in the nursing home, no-one on her floor has symptoms (apart from her, of course, who merely had all the obvious ones + anosmia and a few comorbidies)

[Son of Mathonwy]

RIP Auntie Joy

87 years old, and died of a chest infection that didn't respond to antibiotics.

But no mention of COVID, because whilst it is present in the nursing home, no-one on her floor has symptoms (apart from her, of course, who merely had all the obvious ones + anosmia and a few comorbidies)

Sorry to hear that.