If Russia invades Ukraine (more)...

[Son of Mathonwy]

We've known about it for 6 months+, they've "just" ramped things up in Kherson specifically.


Elsewhere, Elon has been talking to Vladimir - and, like Donald, whoever spoke to him last seems to hold the key to the next thing out of his mouth
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... et-ukraine

Useful idiot.

[Which Tyler]

Looks like Ukraine have started new offensives - renewed in Kherson and new Zhaporizhzhia, including softening up the southern bank on the East-West section of the Dnipro lake bit (apologies for the technical and accurate regional names).


Presumably the first phase would be to encourage Russia to use what resources they currently have in the area, now that the Kerch Bridge upgrading to slipway, means that they can't resupply in bulk

[Sandydragon]

Absolutely fair.


I think it's also worth saying that, as ever with these supply things, it's not new stuff being given to Ukraine; it's old stuff, sometimes severely outdated stuff, bring given to Ukraine, whilst the donator gets brand new stuff (IIRC France and a few others are exceptions here).

So, for example, Canada, Spain and Germany have just given 200,000 winter clothing kits to Ukraine - they're not new kits, they're probably 10+ years old, and taken out of storage. Canada, Spain and Germany will then buy new stuff for themselves.
Poland, Lithuainia etc are giving (updated) Soviet era tanks, and planes and APCs; and getting new NATO kit.

USA aren't spending $5B (or whatever the current figure is) of "stuff" to Ukraine; they're buying $5B worth of "stuff" for themselves, and giving basically the oldest equivalents they have in storage, to Ukraine.
Same with UK, same with virtually everywhere (with some headline exceptions, like HIMARS).


I'd bet real money that 99% of the food and medical supplies being donated are basically at their use-by date (which is fine, they're being given to be used, not to be put into storage).

Bit harsh n Poland and other nearby states who have donated old Soviet armour. The reason for doing that is the Ukrainians know that kit and can just crack on. Using a modern US or British tank takes a fair bit of training.

[Which Tyler]

Not meant to be harsh, or remotely critical - entirely sensible and with entirely sensible other reasons

[Sandydragon]

We've known about it for 6 months+, they've "just" ramped things up in Kherson specifically.


Elsewhere, Elon has been talking to Vladimir - and, like Donald, whoever spoke to him last seems to hold the key to the next thing out of his mouth
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... et-ukraine

Useful idiot.

And he’s just chucked his toys out of the pram by withdrawing his sat comms network support. Apparently he didn’t like being told to fuck off by the Ukrainian foreign minister.

[Zhivago]

We've known about it for 6 months+, they've "just" ramped things up in Kherson specifically.


Elsewhere, Elon has been talking to Vladimir - and, like Donald, whoever spoke to him last seems to hold the key to the next thing out of his mouth
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... et-ukraine

Useful idiot.

And he’s just chucked his toys out of the pram by withdrawing his sat comms network support. Apparently he didn’t like being told to fuck off by the Ukrainian foreign minister.

[Puja]

Useful idiot.

And he’s just chucked his toys out of the pram by withdrawing his sat comms network support. Apparently he didn’t like being told to fuck off by the Ukrainian foreign minister.

Translation: I was hurt and wanted to strop, but it looks like this might actually be really unpopular and I hate that, so I'm pretending I never said it.

Puja

[Which Tyler]

On Musk - I don't know the answer to these questions:
The oft-quoted $20M pcm figure - is that cost, or "would cost on the open market"?
Is it "Musk / SpaceX are spending $20M pcm" or "Musk / SpaceX have provided $20M pcm of services, mostly paid for by the US, UK and EU governments"?

Even if it's $20M pcm from Musk personally - he "earns" $13,000M per month - so it's the equivalent of someone earning £26k (more or less average wage in the UK) per year making a monthly donation of £3.33



NB: $13,000M pcm is policyadvice.net's figure - I have not independently verified their figures or checked their maths, or even read the article itself, any mistakes made by policyadvice.net are policyadvice.net's, not mine personally. If you don't like that, please don't expect me to care

[Sandydragon]

And he’s just chucked his toys out of the pram by withdrawing his sat comms network support. Apparently he didn’t like being told to fuck off by the Ukrainian foreign minister.

Translation: I was hurt and wanted to strop, but it looks like this might actually be really unpopular and I hate that, so I'm pretending I never said it.

Puja

Basically yes.

[Stom]

On Musk - I don't know the answer to these questions:
The oft-quoted $20M pcm figure - is that cost, or "would cost on the open market"?
Is it "Musk / SpaceX are spending $20M pcm" or "Musk / SpaceX have provided $20M pcm of services, mostly paid for by the US, UK and EU governments"?

Even if it's $20M pcm from Musk personally - he "earns" $13,000M per month - so it's the equivalent of someone earning £26k (more or less average wage in the UK) per year making a monthly donation of £3.33



NB: $13,000M pcm is policyadvice.net's figure - I have not independently verified their figures or checked their maths, or even read the article itself, any mistakes made by policyadvice.net are policyadvice.net's, not mine personally. If you don't like that, please don't expect me to care

Yeah, and also, as someone who currently works in telecommunications...Starlink has a very small use case scenario that works right now.

AND, employees of companies like Ericsson are working constantly in Ukraine to keep mobile networks online. Now, those people who are putting their lives at risk to keep the networks running deserve a medal.

[Which Tyler]

https://www.ukrdailyupdate.com/updates/ ... tober-20th

Here is an update for the military situation on October 20th. I will not write about any possible future attacks from the territory of Belarus and will focus on Kharkiv, Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts.

If you would like to view the map: map.ukrdailyupdate.com
...

[Sandydragon]

Looks like Russia is resigned to losing Kherson. Soem reports that veteran elite troops are being replaced by recent conscripts in a bid to ensure the better troops are evacuated. But if the Ukrainians attack during the proposed withdrawal then the chances of the conscripts fighting hard enough to delay the Ukrainians is minimal. This could turn real ugly for Russia.

And ugly for many people if Russia decides to blow up the nearby dam.

[Which Tyler]

And ugly for many people if Russia decides to blow up the nearby dam.

There's been a lot of talk about that, and the Russians would have to be utterly idiotic to try it.
Kherson aside, it would flood Russia's second line of defence, and cause way more damage to Russian held areas than Ukrainian.
It would also dry up the only source of fresh water for Crimea, and deprive a Nuclear plant (Zhaporozhzhia) of coolant

[Sandydragon]

Yeah, it would hurt the Russians a lot too. But I wouldn’t put it past them. They seem to have gone into slash and burn mode without really considering what they are doing.

[Which Tyler]

Oh absolutely - they'd have to be utterly idiotic to try it - which is quite a long way away from being unrealistic for them.

[Zhivago]

How can we let Russia trade with us, exist alongside us?? It must be completely isolated, until its diseased society has been healed of its affliction. Although I know their media is extreme, it is still capable of shocking me into disbelief with how naked the calls for genocide are.
https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/stat ... 5lB3lwPipQ

[Zhivago]

And ugly for many people if Russia decides to blow up the nearby dam.

There's been a lot of talk about that, and the Russians would have to be utterly idiotic to try it.
Kherson aside, it would flood Russia's second line of defence, and cause way more damage to Russian held areas than Ukrainian.
It would also dry up the only source of fresh water for Crimea, and deprive a Nuclear plant (Zhaporozhzhia) of coolant

Maybe they think they'll lose Crimea. In which case, it would be a sub-nuclear (just) flip the board kind of move.

[Puja]

The Russian defence minister/chief propagandist has been telling the British, French, and Turkish defence minister that they think Ukraine are planning to use dirty bombs. Quite apart from the lunacy of suggesting that Ukraine are planning on poisioning their own country, Russia do have a tendency to accuse others of what they're considering doing.

Puja

[Zhivago]

The Russian defence minister/chief propagandist has been telling the British, French, and Turkish defence minister that they think Ukraine are planning to use dirty bombs. Quite apart from the lunacy of suggesting that Ukraine are planning on poisioning their own country, Russia do have a tendency to accuse others of what they're considering doing.

Puja

AFIK the accusation is that Ukraine is planning a drone/missile which can carry a dirty bomb to Moscow

[Sandydragon]

Justifying nuclear strikes of their own? Does anyone still take this crap at face value?

[Zhivago]

https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022 ... rm-ukraine

[Which Tyler]

Also these:




In Bakhmut we "know" that Russia successfully advanced about 200m about a week ago, and then successfully advanced back to their previous position, apparently leaving a LOT of Wagner bodies behind. It being a trap may well be optimistic spin.

[Puja]

A chunk of the US congress, including some names that I'd like to think would know better, write a letter encouraging Biden to "make vigorous diplomatic efforts in support of a negotiated settlement and ceasefire, engage in direct talks with Russia, explore prospects for a new European security arrangement acceptable to all parties, which will allow for a sovereign and independent Ukraine, and, in coordination with our Ukrainian partners, seek a rapid end to the conflict and reiterate this goal as America’s chief priority."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... ia-ukraine

I mean, it's a lovely dream and I endorse the ideal of wanting peace, but where exactly is the compromise to be found here? Even if we were somehow able to sell the status quo ante bellum to Putin and the various Russian factions, that would still leave Luhansk and Donetsk partially occupied and Crimea annexed, rewarding him for 8 years of shithousery by ratifying what he'd already stolen. And let's not pretend that returning to pre-2014 is possible diplomatically.

That whole bit of, "We completely agree with the principle that it's not right for the USA to pressure Ukraine into capitulating... but we'd like you to arrange a diplomatic solution and then pressure Ukraine into it," is nauseating.

Puja

[cashead]

Call Wagnerites what they are: neo-nazi scum

[Sandydragon]

Wagner are better at shooting and raping unarmed civilians than fighting in real combat.