RugbyRebels

http://timharford.com/2017/03/the-problem-with-facts/

It's a very long read but I found it fascinating. All about facts, post-truth thinking, the psychology of propaganda and spin, why we choose to believe what we believe, and finally how to carry the fight to the general public, and specifically fact deniers.

Excellent article.

The Brexit figures is an interesting one. £350M per week was rubbished repeatedly, yet that just didn't work. First up because people didn't want to believe the experts. Gut feeling that the EU is undemocratic and wasteful found a stat to reinforce it.Even when the real figure emerged, taking into account rebate and money spent by the EU in Britain, the final figure still seemed to be high to many people. I'm trying to recall the actual figure, between £150 and £200 million, but to average Joe Bloggs, that is still a huge figure.

The Remain campaign never got their strategy right in countering this line of propaganda. Osbourne warning about dire economic times ahead looked to be doom mongering. Arguing over precise figures just bored people. I think that the best response to this sort of tactic is to find something simple to hang your argument on and push that instead. Perhaps the Remain campaign would have been better off putting more emphasis on how the EU was aiding UK business and the wider population. Yes it cost money to be a member, but look at the benefits. Put it into percentage points just how little the membership was actually costing us.

In the modern political era, detail just doesnt interest the vast majority of the electorate, who have the same voting powers as those who do read more widely. Emotion plays a significant, if not major, part. A debate on immigration can be turned by pictures of drowned children, despite the facts behind the situation not really altering. The way to convince people that your view is the correct one isn't to bombard with facts, but to define your own narrative and push out a few key messages which connect. In other words, fight fire with fire, although never distorting the truth. Getting caught in a lie will destroy a reputation that has taken years to establish.

Sandydragon wrote:Excellent article.

I'm trying to recall the actual figure, between £150 and £200 million, but to average Joe Bloggs, that is still a huge figure.

That's the problem, and the figure is about £130 million, that even if you quote that lower figure people who are set to want to blame the EU are going to be riled by it, though they'd perhaps even be riled by a payment of £0.87/week and the fact there's any payment.

And the remain campaign made an awful case of saying we spent 1% or so of our GDP, less really, to have a much larger GDP. A lot of people wouldn't have voted for economic reasons, but a decent number would have voted with their pocket even if they didn't much like a lot of the EU. Still, I say the remain campaign was awful and in particular Osborne's fake budget the work of someone simply not up to the task, and for such failings Osborne is punished with several high paying jobs, that's the reality we're living in, it just doesn't make sense unless one starts not with the premise of the rational consumer and more that people are bat shit crazy

Thanks for the actual figure.

Ultimately, the Remain campaign failed to pain a sufficiently worthy picture of the EU. Leave pointed towards immigration, the high cost of the EU and British pride. Remain just seemed to be trying to scare people.

Sandydragon wrote:Thanks for the actual figure.

Ultimately, the Remain campaign failed to pain a sufficiently worthy picture of the EU. Leave pointed towards immigration, the high cost of the EU and British pride. Remain just seemed to be trying to scare people.

The figure isn't easy to nail down as at various points the EU might have a big spend in the UK or outside the UK which skews the figure somewhat, and actually there would be people who likely wouldn't consider all spending in the UK to be UK spending (what if we make a UK science spend which takes place in Bolivia?) so one might edge more up to £150 million depending on what one qualifies various spending to be, i.e. UK or not, and what time periods we look at. Any which way it's about 1% of GDP, and really of much more interest is the % GDP which is tax/government spending, what debt is, and what the much bigger government budgets are up to

Digby wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:Thanks for the actual figure.

Ultimately, the Remain campaign failed to pain a sufficiently worthy picture of the EU. Leave pointed towards immigration, the high cost of the EU and British pride. Remain just seemed to be trying to scare people.

The figure isn't easy to nail down as at various points the EU might have a big spend in the UK or outside the UK which skews the figure somewhat, and actually there would be people who likely wouldn't consider all spending in the UK to be UK spending (what if we make a UK science spend which takes place in Bolivia?) so one might edge more up to £150 million depending on what one qualifies various spending to be, i.e. UK or not, and what time periods we look at. Any which way it's about 1% of GDP, and really of much more interest is the % GDP which is tax/government spending, what debt is, and what the much bigger government budgets are up to

I agree.

But all of that is boring pub conversation compared to £350 million per week to Europe!!! Bastards, vote leave!

Another thing about propaganda is loaded terms. E.g. (from a recent guardian article) "compulsory labour" if about Russia vs "community service" in the West.

I'd say in it's simplest form, leave offered something different to a lot of people who felt they had nothing much to look forward to. It didn't really matter what shape different took, in their eyes remain were just offering more of the same.

onlynameleft wrote:I'd say in it's simplest form, leave offered something different to a lot of people who felt they had nothing much to look forward to. It didn't really matter what shape different took, in their eyes remain were just offering more of the same.

And who'd want more peace and economic expansion? This had to be stopped!

Fake news muthabitches!