RugbyRebels

I am convinced that the polls are wrong. The question only remains why. Either it's incompetence, or essentially propaganda. The individual polling companies tailor their assumptions in such a way that there exists bias, which is currently in favour of the Tories.

The main false assumption that is made this time is turnout among young voters. The polls treat this as a constant fact, but I reckon that this time we will see a large and dramatic change to these assumptions and the polls will be wrong as the result.

The last election according to the polls was supposed to be close to if not a hung parliament, so maybe the pollsters have over reacted to people not being willing to admit they're going to vote Tory, but I can't see any reason to suppose over a period of time the pollsters have shown bias for the Tories when reality says the opposite is true

There are a number of polling organisations and they are all reporting much the same thing. They can't ALL be incompetent and I know that a few of them are run by people who are definitely not Tories.

Its always sensible to look at the polling averages rather than pick out individual polls. They tell a consistent story.

As far as young people coming out to vote in great numbers, I'll believe it when I see it. Traditionally the 18-24 age group are far less likely to vote than the over 55's. That was true for the referendum and I think we'll see the same happen this GE.

fivepointer wrote:There are a number of polling organisations and they are all reporting much the same thing. They can't ALL be incompetent and I know that a few of them are run by people who are definitely not Tories.

Its always sensible to look at the polling averages rather than pick out individual polls. They tell a consistent story.

As far as young people coming out to vote in great numbers, I'll believe it when I see it. Traditionally the 18-24 age group are far less likely to vote than the over 55's. That was true for the referendum and I think we'll see the same happen this GE.

A few....?.....or one.

fivepointer wrote:
As far as young people coming out to vote in great numbers, I'll believe it when I see it. Traditionally the 18-24 age group are far less likely to vote than the over 55's. That was true for the referendum and I think we'll see the same happen this GE.

They're not so bad if you can get the buggers registered, but registering seems to be too much hassle for many, the lazy toe rags

Zhivago wrote:I am convinced that the polls are wrong. The question only remains why. Either it's incompetence, or essentially propaganda. The individual polling companies tailor their assumptions in such a way that there exists bias, which is currently in favour of the Tories.

The main false assumption that is made this time is turnout among young voters. The polls treat this as a constant fact, but I reckon that this time we will see a large and dramatic change to these assumptions and the polls will be wrong as the result.

Historically, the pollsters have underestimated the Tory vote, so Im curious as to where your accusation of bias comes in? They can be inaccurate and there are always outliers, hence why the aggregated polls tend to be a bit more informative.

The polls may be wrong, at least one must be as there was a 8/9% difference in both Labour and the Conservative's vote share last week between ComRes and Survation, but for them to be wrong enough for it not to be a decent Con majority they'd have to be wrong light years beyond anything seen before.
Also, if it is a Tory plot/rigging by the elites it's a terrible one. With a cushion that big the turnout of Conservative votes may well be depressed.

We all overlook that simple equation that the overwhelming majority of voters are thick as shit.
This little microcosm of rugby is not enough to judge the millions living on council estates who are all about the football and scratch cards.
A lot of these feckers are indeed too thick to vote for their own interests. How the right wing convinced the farming community to vote for Brexit is beyond my understanding.

I can only see a patronising, patriarchal argument could have convinced them.

Zhivago wrote:I am convinced that the polls are wrong. The question only remains why. Either it's incompetence, or essentially propaganda. The individual polling companies tailor their assumptions in such a way that there exists bias, which is currently in favour of the Tories.

The main false assumption that is made this time is turnout among young voters. The polls treat this as a constant fact, but I reckon that this time we will see a large and dramatic change to these assumptions and the polls will be wrong as the result.

If the little shits wouldn't turn out for the referendum I doubt they'll turn out for this.

Eugene Wrayburn wrote:

Zhivago wrote:I am convinced that the polls are wrong. The question only remains why. Either it's incompetence, or essentially propaganda. The individual polling companies tailor their assumptions in such a way that there exists bias, which is currently in favour of the Tories.

The main false assumption that is made this time is turnout among young voters. The polls treat this as a constant fact, but I reckon that this time we will see a large and dramatic change to these assumptions and the polls will be wrong as the result.

If the little shits wouldn't turn out for the referendum I doubt they'll turn out for this.

There's something like another 300,000 kids registered since the referendum which isn't actually that bad, and looking simply at the referendum they're pretty good at voting once they get a poll card. I don't know if there are any significant voter registration drives between now and the 22nd May to boost the number bothering to register, sadly the political parties seem keener to try and get their own known voters out and dissuade others from voting than hearing what the country actually has to say (though by a distance the SNP are the best/worst at this)