RugbyRebels

Surprised there is no thread on this yet.
Now I know this independence business has been going on for years and I've not been watching very closely but this seems to have escalated spectacularly quickly. No doubt the Basques are watching closely. Any guesses how it unravels?

onlynameleft wrote:Surprised there is no thread on this yet.
Now I know this independence business has been going on for years and I've not been watching very closely but this seems to have escalated spectacularly quickly. No doubt the Basques are watching closely. Any guesses how it unravels?

I understand that the Basques are supporting Madrid in this instance. Is that not right?

Stones of granite wrote:

onlynameleft wrote:Surprised there is no thread on this yet.
Now I know this independence business has been going on for years and I've not been watching very closely but this seems to have escalated spectacularly quickly. No doubt the Basques are watching closely. Any guesses how it unravels?

I understand that the Basques are supporting Madrid in this instance. Is that not right?

I'm not at all sure but the point I was alluding to was what if Catalonia DOES get independence somehow, will the Basques fancy their chances next, whether the current autonomous region "Basque country" in Spain or the wider Basque community/region which includes part of France?

And more immediately, what happens if Catalonia unilaterally declares independence? Has the potentially devolved government got the mandate anyway if only 40 odd % voted?

onlynameleft wrote:

Stones of granite wrote:

onlynameleft wrote:Surprised there is no thread on this yet.
Now I know this independence business has been going on for years and I've not been watching very closely but this seems to have escalated spectacularly quickly. No doubt the Basques are watching closely. Any guesses how it unravels?

I understand that the Basques are supporting Madrid in this instance. Is that not right?

I'm not at all sure but the point I was alluding to was what if Catalonia DOES get independence somehow, will the Basques fancy their chances next, whether the current autonomous region "Basque country" in Spain or the wider Basque community/region which includes part of France?

And more immediately, what happens if Catalonia unilaterally declares independence? Has the potentially devolved government got the mandate anyway if only 40 odd % voted?

I think Spain will declare that there is no mandate, given it was an illegal referendum, and send in the Guarda Civil backed by the military this time. Where it goes after that may be all too predictable.

onlynameleft wrote:

Stones of granite wrote:

onlynameleft wrote:Surprised there is no thread on this yet.
Now I know this independence business has been going on for years and I've not been watching very closely but this seems to have escalated spectacularly quickly. No doubt the Basques are watching closely. Any guesses how it unravels?

I understand that the Basques are supporting Madrid in this instance. Is that not right?

I'm not at all sure but the point I was alluding to was what if Catalonia DOES get independence somehow, will the Basques fancy their chances next, whether the current autonomous region "Basque country" in Spain or the wider Basque community/region which includes part of France?

And more immediately, what happens if Catalonia unilaterally declares independence? Has the potentially devolved government got the mandate anyway if only 40 odd % voted?

There's no mandate from an illegal referendum where people can vote multiple times.

They may be politicaly compelled to host a recognised referendum

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Adder wrote:They may be politicaly compelled to host a recognised referendum

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It's possible, but I don't think Madrid will feel compelled to do that. They refused to when the support for Independence in Catalonia was fairly low, I think it's unlikely that will change now they have stimulated nationalist sentiment with their clumsy response.

Did I read somewhere that they owe the Spanish government 77bn....?. How's that happen..?.

kk67 wrote:Did I read somewhere that they owe the Spanish government 77bn....?. How's that happen..?.

I haven't seen that anywhere. Any chance of a link?

No matter the legitimacy of the referendum, the Spanish government etc would appear to have handled the situation pretty poorly.

http://uk.businessinsider.com/economics ... ain-2016-2

Catalonia’s debt is €64.5 billion ($85.8 billion), 30.9% of its GDP, and Spain owns 60% of it. This is a powerful tool in Catalan hands to retaliate against the Spanish reprisals –such as behind-the-curtains officially-sponsored commercial boycotts doomed to end quickly: not to pay the former Spanish Catalonia's debt owed to a rowdy Spain.

I think it'd be very hard to stop them at some point having an actual referendum rather than a political point scoring one. But I'd basically expect the Catalans to then pay for the move to independence if they voted for it. And whether Spain and the EU then seek to have the same trade terms with Catalonia I don't know, I don't think I would if one wanted to keep the Spanish state.

In the short term I think Spain needs to give some ground on language, and they probably do need to look again at the share of taxation being paid

Digby wrote:I think it'd be very hard to stop them at some point having an actual referendum rather than a political point scoring one. But I'd basically expect the Catalans to then pay for the move to independence if they voted for it. And whether Spain and the EU then seek to have the same trade terms with Catalonia I don't know, I don't think I would if one wanted to keep the Spanish state.

In the short term I think Spain needs to give some ground on language, and they probably do need to look again at the share of taxation being paid

They could easily have nipped it in the bud with some conciliatory messaging and sympathetic noises...without doing anything. Instead, they basically made a royal hash of it.

Stom wrote:

Digby wrote:I think it'd be very hard to stop them at some point having an actual referendum rather than a political point scoring one. But I'd basically expect the Catalans to then pay for the move to independence if they voted for it. And whether Spain and the EU then seek to have the same trade terms with Catalonia I don't know, I don't think I would if one wanted to keep the Spanish state.

In the short term I think Spain needs to give some ground on language, and they probably do need to look again at the share of taxation being paid

They could easily have nipped it in the bud with some conciliatory messaging and sympathetic noises...without doing anything. Instead, they basically made a royal hash of it.

I don't know they can nip this in the bud, the fundamentalists are never going to let the issue go, not in my lifetime anyway. But they could have greatly reduced widespread support, or at the very least widespread determination that any change is required.

Digby wrote:

Stom wrote:

Digby wrote:I think it'd be very hard to stop them at some point having an actual referendum rather than a political point scoring one. But I'd basically expect the Catalans to then pay for the move to independence if they voted for it. And whether Spain and the EU then seek to have the same trade terms with Catalonia I don't know, I don't think I would if one wanted to keep the Spanish state.

In the short term I think Spain needs to give some ground on language, and they probably do need to look again at the share of taxation being paid

They could easily have nipped it in the bud with some conciliatory messaging and sympathetic noises...without doing anything. Instead, they basically made a royal hash of it.

I don't know they can nip this in the bud, the fundamentalists are never going to let the issue go, not in my lifetime anyway. But they could have greatly reduced widespread support, or at the very least widespread determination that any change is required.

Th Catalonian government is doing its best to stoke this up and the Madrid government is giving them all the ammunition they need. Madrid has undoubtedly handled this very badly, and probably could have kept support for independence down to half of what is it now with a more intelligent approach.

Digby wrote: But I'd basically expect the Catalans to then pay for the move to independence if they voted for it.

Yeah. Like Brexit, we can discount the businessinsider conclusion that not paying the debt to Spain is a bargaining tool.
That debt will be paid.

But it did remind me of seeing Terry Christian on a talk show discussing the UK debt after the banking crash.
'Who are these people we owe all this money to..?.....Just tell them to fuck off'.

kk67 wrote:

Digby wrote: But I'd basically expect the Catalans to then pay for the move to independence if they voted for it.

Yeah. Like Brexit, we can discount the businessinsider conclusion that not paying the debt to Spain is a bargaining tool.
That debt will be paid.

But it did remind me of seeing Terry Christian on a talk show discussing the UK debt after the banking crash.
'Who are these people we owe all this money to..?.....Just tell them to fuck off'.

If, as I suspect, that debt is bonds, then I don't see that it is all that important in any case. Certainly not much use as a bargaining tool. A bigger concern for the Catalans is how their bond market is affected by all this, and it the moment it is not going the right way.

Stones of granite wrote:

kk67 wrote:

Digby wrote: But I'd basically expect the Catalans to then pay for the move to independence if they voted for it.

Yeah. Like Brexit, we can discount the businessinsider conclusion that not paying the debt to Spain is a bargaining tool.
That debt will be paid.

But it did remind me of seeing Terry Christian on a talk show discussing the UK debt after the banking crash.
'Who are these people we owe all this money to..?.....Just tell them to fuck off'.

If, as I suspect, that debt is bonds, then I don't see that it is all that important in any case. Certainly not much use as a bargaining tool. A bigger concern for the Catalans is how their bond market is affected by all this, and it the moment it is not going the right way.

Are we going to continue to classify global progress by profit....?. Surely this is the moment to forget that self-fulfilling bollocks.

kk67 wrote:

Stones of granite wrote:

kk67 wrote:
Yeah. Like Brexit, we can discount the businessinsider conclusion that not paying the debt to Spain is a bargaining tool.
That debt will be paid.

But it did remind me of seeing Terry Christian on a talk show discussing the UK debt after the banking crash.
'Who are these people we owe all this money to..?.....Just tell them to fuck off'.

If, as I suspect, that debt is bonds, then I don't see that it is all that important in any case. Certainly not much use as a bargaining tool. A bigger concern for the Catalans is how their bond market is affected by all this, and it the moment it is not going the right way.

Are we going to continue to classify global progress by profit....?. Surely this is the moment to forget that self-fulfilling bollocks.

What?

Stones of granite wrote: What?

All war is driven by profit. It's scum creating profit.

Its hard to see how the Spanish govt could have handled this worse, tbh. That being said, a declaration of independence from Barcelona would be comically inept also; Spain would permanently veto their entry into the EU, or at least make it very very expensive, as would any other EU country with a separatist movement. If popular opinion was 95% pro indy they might be able to swing it, and Spain appears to be trying its hardest to get that figure up there, but for now its a foolish move for the Catalans to make and one which would possibly backfire just as spectacularly as the Spanish actions of recent days.

What I dont get, given the massive economic and political impact it will have on the lives of everyone in Spain who doesnt live in Catalonia, why is it only a decision for the Catalan people? How is splitting up a country only a decision for a select few? Surely every Spanish person should have a say on the future of Spain? Or am I misunderstanding the concept of democracy?

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kk67 wrote:

Stones of granite wrote: What?

All war is driven by profit. It's scum creating profit.

Listen mate, I don't know what you're on about. I was writing about Catalonia's debt to Spain, and whether or not it is in the form of bonds. If they default on the bonds they are fucked, because they won't be able to raise debt finance that way again if they do. Currently the bonds market is making it more difficult anyway because they don't like what are seeing. If you want to start a fucking spangly-arsed discussion about the "evils of profit", start a new thread.

Donny osmond wrote:Its hard to see how the Spanish govt could have handled this worse, tbh. That being said, a declaration of independence from Barcelona would be comically inept also; Spain would permanently veto their entry into the EU, or at least make it very very expensive, as would any other EU country with a separatist movement. If popular opinion was 95% pro indy they might be able to swing it, and Spain appears to be trying its hardest to get that figure up there, but for now its a foolish move for the Catalans to make and one which would possibly backfire just as spectacularly as the Spanish actions of recent days.

Well, it's dead simple. The Catalans would be taking back control. All they have to do is form a strong and stable Government, and then they will be free to make trade deals with the rest of the world.

Donny osmond wrote: What I dont get, given the massive economic and political impact it will have on the lives of everyone in Spain who doesnt live in Catalonia, why is it only a decision for the Catalan people? How is splitting up a country only a decision for a select few? Surely every Spanish person should have a say on the future of Spain? Or am I misunderstanding the concept of democracy?

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Dead right. Ghandi should have held an Empire-wide poll before requesting independence from the Empire. Undemocratic bastard.

Stones of granite wrote:

Donny osmond wrote:Its hard to see how the Spanish govt could have handled this worse, tbh. That being said, a declaration of independence from Barcelona would be comically inept also; Spain would permanently veto their entry into the EU, or at least make it very very expensive, as would any other EU country with a separatist movement. If popular opinion was 95% pro indy they might be able to swing it, and Spain appears to be trying its hardest to get that figure up there, but for now its a foolish move for the Catalans to make and one which would possibly backfire just as spectacularly as the Spanish actions of recent days.

Well, it's dead simple. The Catalans would be taking back control. All they have to do is form a strong and stable Government, and then they will be free to make trade deals with the rest of the world.

Donny osmond wrote: What I dont get, given the massive economic and political impact it will have on the lives of everyone in Spain who doesnt live in Catalonia, why is it only a decision for the Catalan people? How is splitting up a country only a decision for a select few? Surely every Spanish person should have a say on the future of Spain? Or am I misunderstanding the concept of democracy?

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Dead right. Ghandi should have held an Empire-wide poll before requesting independence from the Empire. Undemocratic bastard.

Not if the rest of the world doesnt recognize their act as a legal one, and its hard to think of a reason they would.

Reductio ad absurdum, as you're fond of pointing out.

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Stones of granite wrote: If you want to start a fucking spangly-arsed discussion about the "evils of profit", start a new thread.

No need. That is the total goal of all wars.