RugbyRebels

If the “incumbent” team is those with the most caps last year in their position (taking bench places as separate positions) then this is the current All Blacks team:

1. Hames (8)
2. Taylor (7)*
3. Laulala ( 9)
4. Retallick (8)**
5. S. Whitelock (12)**
6. Squire (6)
7. Cane (13)
8. Read (12)
9. A. Smith (13)
10. B. Barrett (13)
11. Ioane (11)
12. Williams (13)
13. Crotty (9)
14. Naholo (6)
15. McKenzie (10)

16. Coles (7)*
17. Crockett (13)
18. Tu’ungafasi (10)
19. S. Barrett (9)
20. A. Savea (8)
21. Perenara (12)
22. Sopoaga (9)
23. Lienert-Brown (8)


How is this likely to change this year? I see 2018 as a year of consolidation before RWC2019, with only probably 18 tests before then.*** Opportunities for uncapped players will be limited although with almost the entire Super Rugby campaign to go, chickens ought not be counted. Bolters seem most likely at hooker (Aumua, Riccitelli?), back-up 1st 5/8 (Mo'unga) and in the centres , especially if SBW goes AWOL one way or another.

Hookers
With Coles still out injured (as usual) the incumbents are Taylor to start with Harris on the bench. It does seem only a matter of time before the dynamic Asafo Aumua gets a shot though (perhaps more likely in November than the Championship or home tests).

Looseheads
To the relief of referee’s aching penalty arms, Crockett has retired so presumably Moody is back in the frame assuming he’s back from injury by June. If so there should be little argument that he takes the 1 jumper and Hames takes 17.

Tightheads
Owen Franks should be back from injury as well and I would not want to be the one to explain to him that he is no longer the incumbent. Although he’s been around for a while he’s only just hitting his prime as a prop at 30 years old. I would prefer Laulala on the bench, but Hansen may see Tu’ungafasi as a specialist in that role, having backed up Nepo in all 9 of his tests without a single rotation into the starting XV.

Locks
The best pairing in the world is not going to change, barring injury, anytime soon. At 29, Whitelock will fancy another RWC. Brodie (26) could conceivably aim for 2023. We might see some rotation on the bench, to test depth and potential new players but Barrett is a class act.

Loosies
Read (injuries permitting) and Cane are no-brainers. Squire is looking more and more like a permanent fixture with Kaino signing off, although there is competition. Ardie is likely to have to keep trying to prove himself from the bench, under fire from Fifita. It seems a bit weird not having a Collins/So’oialo/Kaino-type immovable Polynesian object in the starting back 3.

Halfback
Despite TJ’s best efforts, only a maniac would not be handing the 9 jersey to Smith before even sharpening their pencil to write a first draft XV.

1st 5/8
Ditto Barrett with even more daylight between him and the next best now that Sopoaga has signed for Wasps (and Cruden went to France). There’s a real opportunity for McKenzie to play in his preferred position for the All Blacks now (especially if Ben Smith stays fit) although Richia Mo’unga will have something to say about that.

2nd 5/8 & Centre
After some real musical chairs in 2016, 2017 was relatively settled with a favoured three emerging. Sonny Bill was nailed on at 12, but rumours of another code-hop could undo that (or perhaps strengthen it?). Crotty, when fit, seems to be the elderly, unflashy glue that holds the backline together so he won’t be lightly discarded. ALB has the goods but is not yet fully proven and Ngani Laumape will want another go, I’m sure.

Wings
On the wing, only Ioane seems a certainty. Naholo has done little wrong but I’m sure Julian Savea would be in France by now if he wasn’t determined to get back in Black. Izzy Dagg could become (I think) the All Black’s oldest ever winger (if he isn’t already) but surely his time is done? If NMS has found some sufficiently strong sticky-tape he remains a contender. And of course wing remains a position where young bolters can easily be given a shot.

Fullbacks
At fullback, Ben Smith remains the default choice. If Barret and/or McKenzie are in the 23 then back-up isn’t an issue.

*Tie broken by total caps. Taylor played in all 14 tests, Coles only played in the 7 he started. Harris also sat on the bench 7 times.
**I’ve counted 4 & 5 as the same position. When not playing together both Whitelock and Retallick occasionally wore the other number.
*** 3 v France, July’18, 7 in TRC2018 + Bled III, 4 in Nov’18 tour, 1 PI warmup July’19, 3 in reduced TRC’19

I've seen the "Tu’ungafasi is a specialist reserve" pop up a few times here and there. But I have absolutely no idea what the rationale for a specialist reserve prop is these days. Especially one as average as Tu’ungafasi. Laulala has to be the reserve tighthead as far as I'm concerned.

I don't think McKenzie will cut it as a five eighth, and I think Mo’unga will surpass him by the end of this year. Indeed he may even be surpassed for the 3rd choice spot by someone like Perofeta or Gatland by 2019. He could make it as a fullback, tho.

As for the midfield, I think that the RWC combo will be Crotty and one of Leinert-Brown or Goodhue. I can also see Laumape easily going the Nonu or Moala route equally well.

Given he can evidently kick the ball, I hope Duffie gets a few runs at fullback for the Blues. Would really help further his test credentials.

Good Fred. Great up to date snap shot for the likes of me wot don't live locally.

morepork wrote:Good Fred. Great up to date snap shot for the likes of me wot don't live locally.

Wot he said.

Anyone see Jordie Barrett potentially moving to 12?

I'd imagine sabremetrics is much less applicable to a more complex/messier sport like rugby than it is to the likes of baseball, cricket or even the NFL. Pretty sure Smith has indeed read Moneyball. There was an article about it prior to 2011 (or maybe 2015) talking about the stats guy they hired to rework their metrics. One of the major ones I recall was 'time to get off the ground', or some-such. The English would know the proper name for it, as Steady Eddie went on about it a hell of a lot in his first year or two. Maybe he still does.

Just because something cannot be quantified does not make it pointless. How do you quantify "leadership"? "Culture"? If all you cared about was quantified metrics -- which may or may not be useful in the first instance -- then you might as well take all your player profiles, throw them through some machine learning, and select whatever comes out the end. Would probably make for an unusual team, I'd wager.