RugbyRebels

Since the Prem is starting in a fortnight and there's a break in the RWC excitement while England go to the beach for 9 days, I thought I'd get the ever-popular predictions thread started so it didn't get in the way of the England vs Uruguay quarter final thread.

Previously, on the Rugby Rebels EMB Predictions Threads:

Puja wrote:Congrats Timbo - you can now put "I was right once" in your signature and we will all accord you the exact amount of respect that you deserve.

We didn't disgrace ourselves last year. Well okay, the people who picked Michael Le Bourgeois was Best Signing did, but the rest of us put up a half-way decent illusion of knowing something about the game of rugby. Let's see whether we can utterly destroy that illusion, once and for all.

Categories are as follows:

Premiership Winner:

Table order:

European predictions - how will the English teams do?

Top try scorer:

Top points scorer:

Surprise of the season:

Biggest disappointment:

Player having a breakthrough season:

Best signing:

Best unheralded signing:

The [Redacted] Award for lowest performance to hype ratio from a new signing:

The Jerome Schuster Award for worst signing:


Puja

Premiership Winner:
The obvious answer is Saracens and I really wish I could say someone else, but I can't see it with that squad they've assembled. Only hope for the rest of the league is a RWC hangover to my mind.

Table order:
Saracens
Exeter
Sale
Northampton
Quins
Leicester
Bristol
Gloucester
Bath
Wasps
Worcester
Irish

European predictions - how will the English teams do?
England suffer from having two teams in two groups, as Exeter/Sale and Bath/Harlequins all take each other out in the pool stages. Only Saracens and Northampton get to the quarters and only Saracens go further, but that's all we need as they win the ERC again.

Top try scorer:
Chris Ashton

Top points scorer:
George Ford

Surprise of the season:
Sale's South African legion sees them through to the Premiership final

Biggest disappointment:
Ben Youngs continues to be first choice England scrum-half, despite Mitchell and Randall doing well in the Prem. Alternatively, Paddy Jackson is annoyingly good.

Player having a breakthrough season:
I want to say Mitchell at Saints, as I think he'll be an England scrum-half by the end of the season, but he did get a good bit of time last year so I don't think he counts. Tempting to go for Steward or Barbeary, but I think it's a year too early, so instead I'll go for Ollie Sleightholme.

Best signing:
Tempted to say Calum Green, as I think he'll add the missing edge to Leicester's pack and that'll be a massive impact. However, I think best overall will be Lood De Jager for Sale.
ETA. Changed my mind - Stuart Hogg.

Best unheralded signing:
I can see Josh Ibuanokpe flourishing at Saracens. They don't sign people that they don't think they can make something out of and tighthead is not a locked position there.
ETA. Changed my mind on this one too (after Ibuanokpe managed to get himself banned for 5 weeks in pre-season) - Jamal Ford-Robinson for Gloucester.

The [Redacted] Award for lowest performance to hype ratio from a new signing:
Sean O'Brien

The Jerome Schuster Award for worst signing:
Chris Harris

Puja

Here are mine:

Premiership Winner:

Saracens. Sadly.

Table order:

Exeter
Saracens
Harlequins
Sale
Gloucester
Northampton
Bristol
Leicester
Bath
Wasps
Worcester
London Irish

As with last year, I don’t think there will be much of a points difference between 3rd and 10th.

I may be being a bit optimistic with Quins in 3rd, but with Gustard having had a year in post, an opportunity to sign his own players and limited impact on the squad from the RWC, I think there are plenty of reasons why we could do very well. My only question mark is how quickly the new guys gel, given we’ve made a lot of signings.

It’s similar to Sale and with the signings they have made, I’d expect them to do well. Gloucester to be there or thereabouts again too.

I expect Saints and Bristol to keep getting better and Wasps to get worse. Tigers to improve, but not that much.

European predictions - how will the English teams do?

Saracens, Exeter and Quins to qualify for the quarters. Saracens to win it.

Top try scorer:

Sam Simmonds

Top points scorer:

George Ford

Surprise of the season:

Alex Cuthbert to be quite good for Exeter

Biggest disappointment:

RWC impact/hangover causes Saracens to be outside of the play-offs until March. Only for them to make a late push and secure a home semi and then go on to win the final.

Player having a breakthrough season:

Ollie Lawrence

Best signing:

Sean Long - if Gustard’s right, he could bring a new dimension to Quins’ attack.

Best unheralded signing:

Matteo Minozzi

The [Redacted] Award for lowest performance to hype ratio from a new signing:

Owen Franks

The Jerome Schuster Award for worst signing:

Nick Phipps

Premiership Winner:
Yeah, Sarries

Table order:
Exeter
Saracens
Northampton
Quins
Leicester
Gloucester
Sale
Bristol
Wasps
Bath
Worcester
Irish

European predictions - how will the English teams do?
Saracens to win the thing, potentially 3 other QFs with Exeter, Saints, and Glos potentially getting out their groups.

Top try scorer:
Goneva

Top points scorer:
Marcus Smith

Surprise of the season:
A season for English players, with expensive new imports struggling

Biggest disappointment:
Inconsistent refereeing continues

Player having a breakthrough season:
Willis the younger.

Best signing:
Goneva. Will score a shed load.

Best unheralded signing:
Will Witty at Exeter

The [Redacted] Award for lowest performance to hype ratio from a new signing:
Sean O'Brien. Yeah, can't see further than that

The Jerome Schuster Award for worst signing:
Chris Harris. Indeed, why the hell anyone would sign him is beyond me...

I don't wanna play this year.

Not (only) for fear of embarassing myself - I've never let that stop me before; but with the RWC, I've not really paid any attention to what the various squads are looking like, or how they're doing in pre-season - I know that Bath have played 2, but I don't even know what the results are - I'm too busy with the internationals

Premiership Winner:
With the depth of their squad I can only see Saracens winning again.

Table order:
Saracens
Exeter
Gloucester
Northampton
Sale
Quins
Leicester
Bristol
Bath
Wasps
Worcester
Irish

European predictions - how will the English teams do?
Quarter finals at best apart from Saracens who will go to the final.

Top try scorer:
Jonny May.

Top points scorer:
George Ford.

Surprise of the season:
Owen Farrell to retire from rugby due to an injury.

Biggest disappointment:
Owen Farrell doesn't retire from rugby due to an injury.

Player having a breakthrough season:
Mitchell at Saints, quickly establishes himself as England's second choice scrum half.

Best signing:
Lood De Jager for Sale.

Best unheralded signing:
Ryan Olowofela for Saints.

The [Redacted] Award for lowest performance to hype ratio from a new signing:
Sean O'Brien.

The Jerome Schuster Award for worst signing:
Paddy Jackson.

Premiership Winner:
Sarries

Table order:
Sarries
Exeter
Glos
Sale
Northampton
Quins
Bristol
Worcester
Leicester
Bath
Wasps
LI

European predictions - how will the English teams do?
Sarries and Exe to get out of their group. Sarries to lose in the final.

Top try scorer:
Solomona

Top points scorer:
Simmonds

Surprise of the season:
Quins qualify from their Champ Cup group.

Biggest disappointment:
No surge on crowd numbers despite hopes of post RWC bounce.

Player having a breakthrough season:
Maunder

Best signing:
Lavanini

Best unheralded signing:
Hammersely. If looking at non-established. players then McPhillips.

The [Redacted] Award for lowest performance to hype ratio from a new signing:
Same as everyone else: Phipps or SOB

The Jerome Schuster Award for worst signing:
See above

Prem winner Sarries


Table order:

Sarries
Exeter
Sale
Glos
Northampton
Quins
Bath
Leicester
Wasps
Bristol
Worcester
LI

European predictions - how will the English teams do?
Sarries and Exe to get out of their group. Sarries to lose in the semi final.

Top try scorer:
Goneva

Top points scorer:
Farrell

Surprise of the season:
Several better 9’s put their hands up and Eddie finally gets rid of Youngs

Biggest disappointment:
Too many games ruined by poor clarity and consistency of high tackle framework application, and it’s all we talk about.

Player having a breakthrough season:
Ted Hill

Best signing:
Hogg

Best unheralded signing:
Chris Harris (mostly because I’m not up to date with ins and outs of other clubs)

The [Redacted] Award for lowest performance to hype ratio from a new signing:
Easily SOB

The Jerome Schuster Award for worst signing:
Paddy Jackson

Premiership Winner: Saracens again.

Table order: Saracens, Exe, 3rd-10th lucky dip, I've no idea. LI and Wuss at the bottom.

European predictions - how will the English teams do? 2 quarter finalists. Saracens to make a SF at least

Top try scorer: Ollie Thorley

Top points scorer: Joe Simmonds

Surprise of the season: Several good young players get consistent game time.

Biggest disappointment: Several good young players don't get consistent game time. And Ben Youngs is still our No 1 SH when the season finishes.

Player having a breakthrough season: A SH, any SH, please.......

Best signing: Think Hogg will do well at Exe and Cooper-Woolley might fit the bill very nicely at Sale

Best unheralded signing: Calum Green. Perfect replacement for Ed Slater. A year too late,but all the same...

The [Redacted] Award for lowest performance to hype ratio from a new signing: Can't identify one standout but London irish have paid out a lot of money for players. Law of averages suggests one or two arent going to be big hits.

The Jerome Schuster Award for worst signing: Franks at Saints

Quins to walk it. Saracens to fight through a late relegation battle.

Prem winner Exeter


Table order:

Exeter
Gloucester
Sarries
Northampton
Bath
Quins
Sale
Leicester
Wasps
Bristol
LI
Worcester

European predictions - how will the English teams do?
Four qualifiers. Exe and Sarries to make semis. Sarries lose in the final.

Top try scorer:
Goneva

Top points scorer:
Burns

Surprise of the season:
Tigers playing youth, especially Steward and Martin!!

Biggest disappointment:
Nic White continuing to be first choice at Exeter

Player having a breakthrough season:
Barbeary

Best signing:
Hogg

Best unheralded signing:
Calum Green

The [Redacted] Award for lowest performance to hype ratio from a new signing:
Naholo

The Jerome Schuster Award for worst signing:
Goneva

Epaminondas Pules wrote:Prem winner Exeter


Table order:

Exeter
Gloucester
Sarries
Northampton
Bath
Quins
Sale
Leicester
Wasps
Bristol
LI
Worcester

European predictions - how will the English teams do?
Four qualifiers. Exe and Sarries to make semis. Sarries lose in the final.

Top try scorer:
Goneva

The Jerome Schuster Award for worst signing:
Goneva

Going to be an interesting season, then!

Stom wrote:

Epaminondas Pules wrote:Prem winner Exeter


Table order:

Exeter
Gloucester
Sarries
Northampton
Bath
Quins
Sale
Leicester
Wasps
Bristol
LI
Worcester

European predictions - how will the English teams do?
Four qualifiers. Exe and Sarries to make semis. Sarries lose in the final.

Top try scorer:
Goneva

The Jerome Schuster Award for worst signing:
Goneva

Going to be an interesting season, then!

Haha!! Damn copy and paste!! And there was me thinking I’d changed every answer! Damnit!!

Top try scorer will be Woodburn.

[quote="Puja"]Premiership Winner:
I'm going Exeter. Sarries to run out of steam a little at the end of the season.

Table order:
Exeter
Saracens
Gloucester
Sale
Quins
Northampton
Bristol
Bath
Waspd
Leicester
Worcester
Irish

European predictions - how will the English teams do?
Northampton, Sarries and Exeter make the quarters but only Sarries go further. However they get knocked out in the semis in a shock result.

Top try scorer:
Earles

Top points scorer:
George Ford

Surprise of the season:
Heinz/Cipriani form the 6N halfback partnership (well it would be a surprise)

Biggest disappointment:
Sales SA contingent don't really take them forward. They remain a team that's able to beat weakened teams but short of the top four. Was going to say Leicester being about as good as last season but not sure that's a disappointment.

Player having a breakthrough season:
Ted Hill to be an England regular but only occasionally picked by Solomon's. For one a bit more off the radar, Luke James to look good in a better Sale side.

Best signing:
Hogg will prove himself worth it, if he can stay fit.

Best unheralded signing:
Minozzi

The [Redacted] Award for lowest performance to hype ratio from a new signing:
Does Campagnaro count? Struggling to think of that many hyped signings this season.

The Jerome Schuster Award for worst signing:
Steve Mafi.

Is everyone nominating Paddy Jackson for the Jerome Schuster award just hoping he has a bad season?

Like it or not, I think he’ll do very well.

Did we not say we were going to rename the Jerome Schuster award anyway?

switchskier wrote:Premiership Winner:
I'm going Exeter. Sarries to run out of steam a little at the end of the season.

Table order:
Exeter
Saracens
Gloucester
Sale
Quins
Northampton
Bristol
Bath
Waspd
Leicester
Worcester
Irish

European predictions - how will the English teams do?
Northampton, Sarries and Exeter make the quarters but only Sarries go further. However they get knocked out in the semis in a shock result.

Top try scorer:
Earles

[/quote]

I guess you mean Earle? Kinda hard as he's out for most of the season...

Scrumhead wrote:Is everyone nominating Paddy Jackson for the Jerome Schuster award just hoping he has a bad season?

Like it or not, I think he’ll do very well.

Did we not say we were going to rename the Jerome Schuster award anyway?

It's been split. Jerome Schuster for worst overall signing and the [redacted] award for lowest hype to delivery.

I agree with you that Jackson will likely do well, more's the pity. It's down as my disappointment prediction.

Puja

Stom wrote:

switchskier wrote:Premiership Winner:
I'm going Exeter. Sarries to run out of steam a little at the end of the season.

Table order:
Exeter
Saracens
Gloucester
Sale
Quins
Northampton
Bristol
Bath
Waspd
Leicester
Worcester
Irish

European predictions - how will the English teams do?
Northampton, Sarries and Exeter make the quarters but only Sarries go further. However they get knocked out in the semis in a shock result.

Top try scorer:
Earles

I guess you mean Earle? Kinda hard as he's out for most of the season...[/quote]

Is he? I'll go with Piutau then.

Not sure where to put this but it has few interesting nuggets:

What does fewest complete possessions without errors mean? I presume a complete possession is one that ends in points?

Raggs wrote:What does fewest complete possessions without errors mean? I presume a complete possession is one that ends in points?

It's where the side in possession determines the end of the sequence, so scoring a try would count, as would winning a penalty/freekick, or choosing to kick the ball away.

Digby wrote:

Raggs wrote:What does fewest complete possessions without errors mean? I presume a complete possession is one that ends in points?

It's where the side in possession determines the end of the sequence, so scoring a try would count, as would winning a penalty/freekick, or choosing to kick the ball away.

Also to add, and really I don't quote myself enough, it's typically a pretty shit indicator of what side is going to be successful. Bar, and it's a reasonable caveat, NZ would normally top such chart if it were done at test level

Digby wrote:

Digby wrote:

Raggs wrote:What does fewest complete possessions without errors mean? I presume a complete possession is one that ends in points?

It's where the side in possession determines the end of the sequence, so scoring a try would count, as would winning a penalty/freekick, or choosing to kick the ball away.

Also to add, and really I don't quote myself enough, it's typically a pretty shit indicator of what side is going to be successful. Bar, and it's a reasonable caveat, NZ would normally top such chart if it were done at test level

Having read the whole question though, and not just does a complete possession end in points, I'm not sure what they're getting at by placing without errors in brackets. I suspect the without errors is a note about what constitutes a complete possession and has made it into the review Mells posted itself in error, because by its nature a complete possession cannot end with an error by the team in possession. So I think it's a negative comment that's been included as a positive one by someone who doesn't know rugby and has just seized on that stat thinking the without errors meant something good. Looking at the source this could well come from Ross Hamilton originally before some rugby ignorant media bunny went to work on it and Mell just posted it here without a by-your-leave, if anyone is on Twitter feel free to ask him, Ross not Mells, he'd know what it's meant to mean I suspect

If it is a positive comment I'm either not bright enough or haven't had enough cups of tea, probably both, to follow through the logic of why that particular claim is a positive

Digby wrote:

Digby wrote:

Digby wrote:
It's where the side in possession determines the end of the sequence, so scoring a try would count, as would winning a penalty/freekick, or choosing to kick the ball away.

Also to add, and really I don't quote myself enough, it's typically a pretty shit indicator of what side is going to be successful. Bar, and it's a reasonable caveat, NZ would normally top such chart if it were done at test level

Having read the whole question though, and not just does a complete possession end in points, I'm not sure what they're getting at by placing without errors in brackets. I suspect the without errors is a note about what constitutes a complete possession and has made it into the review Mells posted itself in error, because by its nature a complete possession cannot end with an error by the team in possession. So I think it's a negative comment that's been included as a positive one by someone who doesn't know rugby and has just seized on that stat thinking the without errors meant something good. Looking at the source this could well come from Ross Hamilton originally before some rugby ignorant media bunny went to work on it and Mell just posted it here without a by-your-leave, if anyone is on Twitter feel free to ask him, Ross not Mells, he'd know what it's meant to mean I suspect

If it is a positive comment I'm either not bright enough or haven't had enough cups of tea, probably both, to follow through the logic of why that particular claim is a positive

Why?

It's 2 stats in 1. They have the most ball, and they choose what to do with that ball the most often out of all the teams.

We're not looking for "positive or negative" here, we're looking for stats that show how the team plays.

This one does.

Sarries like to control how the game is played and where. So they keep possession and when it's not on, kick it away.

Stom wrote:

Digby wrote:

Digby wrote:
Also to add, and really I don't quote myself enough, it's typically a pretty shit indicator of what side is going to be successful. Bar, and it's a reasonable caveat, NZ would normally top such chart if it were done at test level

Having read the whole question though, and not just does a complete possession end in points, I'm not sure what they're getting at by placing without errors in brackets. I suspect the without errors is a note about what constitutes a complete possession and has made it into the review Mells posted itself in error, because by its nature a complete possession cannot end with an error by the team in possession. So I think it's a negative comment that's been included as a positive one by someone who doesn't know rugby and has just seized on that stat thinking the without errors meant something good. Looking at the source this could well come from Ross Hamilton originally before some rugby ignorant media bunny went to work on it and Mell just posted it here without a by-your-leave, if anyone is on Twitter feel free to ask him, Ross not Mells, he'd know what it's meant to mean I suspect

If it is a positive comment I'm either not bright enough or haven't had enough cups of tea, probably both, to follow through the logic of why that particular claim is a positive

Why?

It's 2 stats in 1. They have the most ball, and they choose what to do with that ball the most often out of all the teams.

We're not looking for "positive or negative" here, we're looking for stats that show how the team plays.

This one does.

Sarries like to control how the game is played and where. So they keep possession and when it's not on, kick it away.

Eh? if you don't complete a possession you're not choosing what to do with it. Incomplete possessions are where you lose the ball via a penalty/freekick, get turned over, get forced into touch...

Am I missing the obvious?