RugbyRebels

73 . Exeter: LIrish (H), Wasps (A) Also have HC QF against Saints
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61 . Wasps: Harlequins (A), Exeter (H)
60 . Bath: Gloucester (H), Saracens (A)
59 . Sale: Northampton (A), Worcester (H)
59 . Bristol: Leicester (H), LIrish (A) Also have CC QF against Dragons
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46 . Harlequins: Wasps (H), Leicester (A)
42 . Northampton: Sale (H), Gloucester (A) Also have HC QF against Exeter
41 . Gloucester: Bath (A), Northampton (H)
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31 . Worcester: Saracens (H), Sale (A)
30 . LIrish: Exeter (A), Bristol (H)
28 . Leicester: Bristol (A), Harlequins (H) Also have CC QF against Castres
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-41 . Saracens: Worcester (A), Bath (H) Also have HC QF against Leinster

Top 8 are sorted.
Top 1 is sorted. 2-5 has Sale 59 pts, Bristol 58, Wasps 56 and Bath 55.
Key games this Sunday, Sale v Bath and Wasps v Bristol

Yep, should have put current table in there as well - oops.
Also, Yep - By Sunday night, we'll pretty much know the final spot in the table.

Think it'll end:
1 - Exexter
2 - Sale,
3 - Bris/Wasps
4 - Wasps/Bris
5 - Bath.

I think Sale will win their last 3 games (much as I don't want them to), Wasps will win 2 (beat Bristol and lose to Exe), Bristol will win 2 (Tigers, Irish) and Bath will win 1 (Glos). Can't call 3/4 as it depends on points difference but Bris have better games to rack up the points.

Of the 2-5 group, outside the games against each other, it looks like Wasps have the hardest games, with Bristol the kindest run.

That's on paper though as God knows how the perming of players is going to effect any of that.

Of course, there's also the element of European rugby to consider, with Exeter, Bristol, Saints, Leicester and Sarries all still involved.
QFs are due to be played on the same weekend as Round 21 - so who prioritises what?
And, of course, the floating Saracens threat.



For Round 20, Exeter v Sarries will be a full blooded affair, as both will see that as their domestic final, and chance to head into the HC weekend strong; otherwise 2-5 in the table all play each other to sort out their positions relative to each other - all 3 of those matches could go either way.

For Round 21, Bristol will have to play Leicester AND Dragons - do they sacrifice CC and potential silverware to make sure of 2nd in the table? or are they confident that their 2nds can beat the wounded tigers?
Exeter are already confirmed for a home SF in the prem, so you can't see them sending anything other than a 2nd XV to LIrish.
Otherwise Sale, Wasps and Bath should all have the beating of Saints, Quins and Glos

Round 22, do Sarries have the motivation to beat a confident Bath side fighting for a play-off?
Will Exeter be all that bothered about Wasps - set down a marker or rotate and freshen?
Sale and Bristol should be comfortable against Worcester and Irish

Preseason aim for Bristol was top 6, win the Euro CC. So I assume the Euro cup is still the priority.

I think Sarries will send a second team to Sandy park - Leinster is their highest profile game for the next 12 months at least. They won't risk what are in some cases limited options

Which Tyler wrote:For Round 21, Bristol will have to play Leicester AND Dragons - do they sacrifice CC and potential silverware to make sure of 2nd in the table? or are they confident that their 2nds can beat the wounded tigers?

Leicester will be playing Castres that weekend as well and I suspect will be looking to put the 1sts out for that, so Bristol 2nds should easily take care of Leicester 2nds.

Puja

jimKRFC wrote:Think it'll end:
1 - Exexter
2 - Sale,
3 - Bris/Wasps
4 - Wasps/Bris
5 - Bath.

I think Sale will win their last 3 games (much as I don't want them to), Wasps will win 2 (beat Bristol and lose to Exe), Bristol will win 2 (Tigers, Irish) and Bath will win 1 (Glos). Can't call 3/4 as it depends on points difference but Bris have better games to rack up the points.

I agree.

Although worth pointing out that Sale also have the Premiership Cup Final against Quins on the 21st.

I imagine they’ll be prioritising the Premiership, but arguably the cup is the better chance of silverware as I still don’t see anyone beating Exeter.

This is getting confusing now with all the clashes....

The prem table probably doesn't get any clearer next week either.

Raggs wrote:The prem table probably doesn't get any clearer next week either.

It doesn't - but I wouldn't have predicted that beforehand.

It's now perfectly possible for 2nd through 5th to all be tied on league points.

Come on Glaws. Come on Saints. Come on Tigers.

Raggs wrote:Come on Glaws. Come on Saints. Come on Tigers.

And you call yourself a Wasps fan?!?!

Which Tyler wrote:

Raggs wrote:Come on Glaws. Come on Saints. Come on Tigers.

And you call yourself a Wasps fan?!?!

Yep . When Tigers start being a threat again, then I'll worry about them more.

Raggs wrote:

Which Tyler wrote:

Raggs wrote:Come on Glaws. Come on Saints. Come on Tigers.

And you call yourself a Wasps fan?!?!

Yep . When Tigers start being a threat again, then I'll worry about them more.

There are some Means than no End an justify

As a Wasps fan, I should be delighted Top 6 is guaranteed and therefore Europe (whatever THAT looks like), yet I will be disappointed if we don't make the play offs and slip up right at the death. Quite the turnaround from January.

Peej wrote:As a Wasps fan, I should be delighted Top 6 is guaranteed and therefore Europe (whatever THAT looks like), yet I will be disappointed if we don't make the play offs and slip up right at the death. Quite the turnaround from January.

It'd be a tough pill to swallow, but 5th would still be a fantastic result.

After this weekend’s results I can definitely see Exeter and Saracens playing 2nd string teams in round 21 given their European commitments.

They’re playing two of the weakest teams in the league, but if it’s 2s vs. 1s, Worcester and Irish are capable of winning. Even more so for Worcester playing at Sixways.

For Bath, Wasps, Sale and Bristol it’s the opposite. All four will presumably be going all out to ensure maximum points and a top 4 place so probably can’t afford to rotate. Bonus point wins and high margins of victory could be critical.

Bristol have the easiest fixtures, but they also have the Challenge Cup semi with Bordeaux to factor in. A complex run in!

Currently its
Exeter Top
Wasps 61 pts Quins A (28 Sep) and Exeter H (4 Oct)
Bath 60 pts Glos H (22 Sep) and Saracens A (4 Oct)
Sale 59 pts Saints A (29 Sep) and Worcester H (4 Oct)
Bristol 59 pts Tigers H (30 Sep) and Irish A (4 Oct)

Bath have a big advantage given they play tomorrow and have a nice break until the final league game against a likely Saracens reserve side.
Bristol have 2 easy games but have to play on 26 Sep (ECC), 30 Sep and 4 Oct. I expect them to go for it against Bordeaux and hope their 2nds can beat Tigers.

fivepointer wrote: Bristol have 2 easy games but have to play on 26 Sep (ECC), 30 Sep and 4 Oct. I expect them to go for it against Bordeaux and hope their 2nds can beat Tigers.

Bristol didn't fare well at Welford Road back in January when Tigers beat them 31-18 and grabbed an increasingly rare TBP. It will be a seconds Vs second affair though as Tigers will be going all out Vs Toulon and then fancy a go at Quins on the weekend. Games between second teams are a bit of a lottery and will be a nice change for Tigers who seem to have to endure their second team being smashed by everybody's first team.

FKAS wrote:

fivepointer wrote: Bristol have 2 easy games but have to play on 26 Sep (ECC), 30 Sep and 4 Oct. I expect them to go for it against Bordeaux and hope their 2nds can beat Tigers.

Bristol didn't fare well at Welford Road back in January when Tigers beat them 31-18 and grabbed an increasingly rare TBP. It will be a seconds Vs second affair though as Tigers will be going all out Vs Toulon and then fancy a go at Quins on the weekend. Games between second teams are a bit of a lottery and will be a nice change for Tigers who seem to have to endure their second team being smashed by everybody's first team.

Not to mention having their firsts smashed by someone else's seconds

fivepointer wrote: Bristol have 2 easy games but have to play on 26 Sep (ECC), 30 Sep and 4 Oct. I expect them to go for it against Bordeaux and hope their 2nds can beat Tigers.

Pat Lams preseason target was top 6 and the ECC final, so I expect Bris to focus on that now. PL has also said he wants the team to learn how to play knock out rugby as they're not used to it and Bristol have frankly been dreadful in knock out games (see repeated Championship play-off final games).

Also getting to the prem finals means not much break before the next season starts, so for Bris it would be:

18th Sept Dragons H ECC
25th Sept H ECC Semi Final
30th Sept Leicester H Prem
4th Oct LI A Prem
10/11th Oct Prem Semi Play Off
16/17/18th ECC Finals
24th Oct Prem Final Play Off

20th Nov 2020/21 Premiership Season Starts.

Finishing 5th would be a success (top 6 goal), give more time to prep for the ECC (2nd goal) and mean some more rest/recovery before it all starts again.

Which Tyler wrote:

FKAS wrote:

fivepointer wrote: Bristol have 2 easy games but have to play on 26 Sep (ECC), 30 Sep and 4 Oct. I expect them to go for it against Bordeaux and hope their 2nds can beat Tigers.

Bristol didn't fare well at Welford Road back in January when Tigers beat them 31-18 and grabbed an increasingly rare TBP. It will be a seconds Vs second affair though as Tigers will be going all out Vs Toulon and then fancy a go at Quins on the weekend. Games between second teams are a bit of a lottery and will be a nice change for Tigers who seem to have to endure their second team being smashed by everybody's first team.

Not to mention having their firsts smashed by someone else's seconds

Has that actually happened since the restart?

Puja