RugbyRebels

For anyone paying attention, the New Zealand General Elections was supposed to be held *checks wrist watch* 2 days ago, but was delayed until October 17 for some unfathomable reason.

In Aotearoa, as they do in Germany, we use the Mixed Member Proportional system. "What in the dick is that?" you might ask? Here are a couple of videos to help you:





TL:DW; MMP gives each eligible voter 2 votes each - one for your local Electorate MP (basically a Constituency for you British cunts) and one for your preferred Party. Usually, the two are clearly aligned - it's not unusual for the electorate MP votes to be consistent with whichever party that won the Party Vote in that electorate - but not always, Ohariu and Epsom being notable exceptions for different reasons.




There are 74 Electorate seats up for grabs - 67 from the General Electorate and 7 Maori Electorate seats, and a total of 120 seats up for grabs in Parliament.

The Parties and Candidates

The Government
Labour


Labour are your typical centre-left/lite-left Social Democrat party.

After spending 9 years in the opposition wilderness, cycling through floundering leaders of varying levels of competence, previous-leader Andrew Little threw the mother of all Hail Mary passes to his deputy Jacinda Ardern, who turned that into an election win.

Likeable, pragmatic, an excellent communicator, relentlessly positive, ruthless when needed, Ardern's mettle as a leader has been consistently tested through her first term, and has emerged each time smelling of roses.

The party has not necessarily achieved all that it set out to do (the backdown on Capital Gains Tax is a notable defeat), something which they have more or less successfully pinned on their coalition partners.

Nevertheless, they have been consistently popular with a leader that is almost universally beloved (it also helps that she's one of the most competent heads of state in the Anglosphere), and are expected to win this one at a canter.

New Zealand First


New Zealand First are the Populist Conservative party - notably anti-immigrant but also anti-neoliberal. Think UKIP, but with more complicated racial politics. Their leader, Winston Peters, entered into a coalition with Labour and got to be Deputy PM for this term, but have also frequently run interference against the government - something which they appear rather proud of, based on their campaigning.

Made up of a bunch of MPs that either don't fit in elsewhere or have been run off from their home parties. Essentially, they're an island of misfit toys that relies entirely on the presence of Winston Peters in Parliament. Current polling seems to indicate their goose is cooked, but Peters has been here before and bounced back.


The Greens


The Greens are the Leftist/Environmentalist party with a co-leadership model - Marama Davidson has an activist background and represents the more traditional values of the party, while James Shaw is somewhat more Centrist and mainstream. As a result, they've managed to mostly shed the hippy anti-vaxx baggage they come with.

They're the natural coalition partners of Labour, and have some highly talented and well-liked MPs like Chlöe Swarbrick. Currently in the danger zone of around 5% in the polls, but they tend to outperform expectations at elections.


The Opposition
National


National are the Centre-Right Conservative party, led by Judith Collins. Voted out in 2017 after 9 years in government, their last term in government was notable for three things: being unexpectedly great at negotiating settlements with various Iwi over historic grievances, a flag change referendum that wasted a lot of money for little return while the then-government cried poverty, and being one of the most morally and ethically bankrupt parties that this country had ever seen.

Current (and outgoing) Green MP Gareth Hughes summed it up quite nicely.


Having been voted out of government, they have yet to come to terms with being in opposition. They're now on to their third leader of this Parliamentary term:

Simon Bridges got voted out for being a total fuck-up


Todd Muller resigned when he realised he wasn't up to the task after about 2 months, after he fell apart into a sweaty puddle at seemingly each public engagement.


They have found themselves in multiple scandals of their own making, shedding multiple MPs. One got kicked out of the party for leaking financial information about the party to undermine then-leader Simon Bridges (before having a nervous breakdown), one got kicked out of the party for leaking COVID-19 patient data (that was leaked to him by the former Party President) to the press to prove he wasn't a racist after he sent out racist flyers to his electorate, and another got booted after it turned out he had a habit of sending unsolicited horny text messages to women and underage girls. Fucking ew.

So naturally, they turned to Judith Collins - hard right economically, surprisingly socially liberal on conscience issues, noted for leaking information like a sieve, and practically the main character of a book that detailed the dirty, underhanded and at times almost legally dubious tactics her party engaged in, in order to win and maintain power.

ACT Party


The right-wing "Classical Liberal" "party" "led" by Gordon Brittas David Seymour, that is basically the equivalent of the Popular Front of Judea. No one likes him, he's only there as a sockpuppet party for National, and I knew him at university and he was a cunt then and is an even bigger cunt now. Just look at this gormless fuck.

Cuntface has managed to raise his party's profile by some successful work on euthanasia legislation, and by sucking off gun rights crybabies and alt-right TOTALLY NOT NAZI pissfucks after the 2019 mosque shooting. An absolute cunt and a waste of skin.


So, how has polling looked?



You tell me.


Edit: Forgot about 3 new electorates that are being contested.

The Other Parties trying to get into Parliament

The Maori Party


The Centre-Left Indigenous Sovereignty Party, basically.
The party originally broke away from Labour as crossbenchers, before joining a coalition with the National Party. Running entirely on founder Tariana Turia's spite, they remained in the coalition as they shed voters each time, before being voted out entirely in 2017. Who'd have guessed that being seen as subservient to a party despised by the majority of thier voters would lead to this? What a shock!

Also taking on the co-leader model, Debbie Ngarewa-Packer is a noted indigenous rights activist, who has spent her tenure attacking the National Party and calling them every name under the sun. John Tamihere, probably just there on name recognition, is noted for referring to women as front-bums, cried about 'muh rights as a man" which saw him censured by Helen Clark back when he was a Labour MP, has made some tonedeaf and shitty comments on gay rights, had a whinge about how he's the true victim of the Holocaust because it's a topic that still comes up, left some cats to die in his old house when he left (they were rescued by the SPCA and re-homed), and when a scandal involving gang-rape at a couple of Auckland high schools happened, he invited one of the victims onto his show as a guest and yelled at her because apparently the rapists are the true victims. "But current Labour MP Willie Jackson was there too!" you might say. At least he took the criticism levelled at him on board, educated himself on the matters, and has expressed remorse and contrition. Tamihere has just doubled down. Because he's a cunt.

The New Conservatives


Reactionaries, racists, homophobes, transphobes, etc. Worthless. Founded by noted real estate weirdo Colin Craig, led by this guy, apparently. Hilariously got ripped apart in a reddit AMA a few years ago.


The Opportunities Party


YIMBY tech-freaks and UBI enthusiasts, with no specific unifying ideology other than vague platitudes and a pick-n-mix approach to policy. Occasional good ideas (like the UBI), but hampered by the spectre of their founder, Gareth Morgan and his colossal ego, which still haunts them. Struggles with an image problem, in that they're seen as perpetually firmly wedged up their own backsides, huffing their own farts with each deep breath they take.


Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party


These guys have been on the ballot for a while. Basically, their platform is their name. Apparently that's their leader. Fundamentally, they're not wrong about pot - it's pretty much been unofficially legalised, since there's a high rate of usage in NZ, and the laws are rarely enforced - unless you happen to be brown. Not sure what else to say about this lot, really.


Advance New Zealand Party
Remember the MP that got kicked out of the National Party and had a breakdown? That guy and an unregistered party of conspiracy freaks got together, and had a bum-baby and this is the result. Led by Jami-Lee Ross, they're the Q-Anon, 5G is stealing my thoughts, "Pandemic? More like plandemic, amirite, guise?" party. Cunts.


Outdoors Party
Q-Anon, but with conservationism. Eh.

Vision
Christian Conservatives, led by Hannah Tamaki, but blatantly a front for the pentecostal, reviled Destiny Church, led by a shouty man who once burned his dick on a garbage fire of his own creation. No one likes them, and their chances of entering parliament are roughly proportional to the likelihood that Ireland will win a quarterfinal at the Rugby World Cup.

One Party
Less shitty Christian Conservatives. Their chances of entering parliament are roughly proportional to the likelihood that Scotland will have more than 5 representatives in the Lions tour next year, assuming it happens.

Useful knowledge. Will Ardern need a coalition partner this time? Looking from the outside, she seems to be a top leader and I'm not sure why anyone would be voting for someone else given the success she's made of her COVID response.

Puja

Jesus, National have turned into a cartoon. How long before Luxon is installed as the new-new second coming of our Lord Johns Keys?

Because, you know, fuckin business and all that.

Puja wrote:Useful knowledge. Will Ardern need a coalition partner this time? Looking from the outside, she seems to be a top leader and I'm not sure why anyone would be voting for someone else given the success she's made of her COVID response.

Puja

By design, MMP tends to require a coalition partner, and in 8 elections, no party regardless of its popularity or effectiveness, has been able to win enough seats to govern alone.

However, we are in extraordinary times, and Labour under Ardern is largely credited for a hugely successful response to COVID, so yeah, it is entirely possible this time round. They certainly appear to have the numbers. Either way, I expect they'll take on the Greens to buffet their numbers in Parliament.

I intend to vote for the coalition partner this year, because they'll probably need it (I also do come from a family of Labour voters). Hopefully others are thinking the same way.

My wild prediction is for Labour to get maybe somewhere in the high 40s in the Party Vote, flip a few electorate seats, and for the Greens to squeak in just over the threshold. NZFirst can go get fucked.

morepork wrote:Jesus, National have turned into a cartoon. How long before Luxon is installed as the new-new second coming of our Lord Johns Keys?

Because, you know, fuckin business and all that.

The usual suspects are writing barely disguised fanfic about him becoming party leader, but I do wonder how this current pandemic will affect the long-held axiomatic beliefs in politics - National just got its credibility as "responsible managers of the economy" attacked over a fuck-up in their policy costings. Labour timed a press release bringing this up to be released just before National's campaign launch, and successfully turned the $4billion hole in their budget into a spectre at the feast. They spent 9 years cutting costs left and right just so that Blinglish could brag about a budget surplus a couple of times during the last National government, running deficit after deficit and borrowing big, but it should also be noted that Michael Cullen managed a surplus 9 years in a row as Minister of Finance under Helen Clark, and Robertson was 2 for 2 on that front before the pandemic fucked everything up - and even then, Labour have been successful in cushioning the blow.

We've also seen lots of businesses struggling, and really exposing how it was just a massive system of broke-ass bitches robbing Peter to pay Paul at virtually all levels, so who knows how that'll reflect on Luxon. He's also a massive fundie ("no I'm not, the church I attend regularly is!"), and voters have tended to find that shit distasteful in our politics.

No one likes them, and their chances of entering parliament are roughly proportional to the likelihood that Ireland will win a quarterfinal at the Rugby World Cup.

Ouch!!

cashead wrote:For anyone paying attention, the New Zealand General Elections was supposed to be held *checks wrist watch* 2 days ago, but was delayed until October 17 for some unfathomable reason.

In Aotearoa, as they do in Germany, we use the Mixed Member Proportional system. "What in the dick is that?" you might ask? Here are a couple of videos to help you:

So, how has polling looked?

You tell me.

Great system, pretty much exactly what I would have in the UK if I could (I'm no expert on electoral systems but it's the system I came to when trying to design one. So thanks for telling me what it's called!).

Great polls too. Looks like you guys are living in a little oasis of sanity.

Puja wrote:Looking from the outside, she seems to be a top leader and I'm not sure why anyone would be voting for someone else given the success she's made of her COVID response.

I can definitely see why that would be the case. The major two unprecedented incidents during her tenure -- the pandemic and shootings -- have really helped by rolling what would've been a first term turd in glitter gold shavings. I think Cas is being somewhat generous in saying they have "not necessarily achieved all that [Labour] set out to do". They've achieved little in the way of any meaningful progress on the big ticket issues. At least not that I can recall/am aware of. Were Ardern as ruthless as he's claiming -- also something I disagree with; for exhibit A) see that plonker Twyford maintaining two important portfolios and bungling both, Genter should've been minister of transport -- then at least something would've been achieved in spite of Peters. Were it Clarke in charge then I suspect wheels would've been in motion.

In terms of specifics the capital gains tax is a bit of a biggie as NZ is one of the few OECD countries that does not have a capital gains tax on real estate. She has also let the reserve bank keep doing everything in its power to keep that housing bubble inflated. We have a recession and house prices continue to rise. Go figure.

Related to the CGT and housing is Kiwi Build; a government driven scheme to build more affordable housing. Set some laudably ambitious targets but made laughably little progress. Got so shit that they stooped to fudging the numbers by buying developments already in progress, and some even finished (IIRC), and chalking them up as new developments even though they were already underway so were not adding anything new to the housing stock. They also haven't made any real attempt to deal with the other issues that drive up housing prices in NZ, such as Fletcher's control over the building industry. Though Fletchers are in the process of, somehow, screwing up a monopoly so that may sort itself. Hopefully.

Then we have Auckland's light rail fiasco. Oh boy, where do we even begin with this one. One of their biggest policy promises was to modernise the Auckland public transport system by starting work on the much needed light rail system. Great stuff. NZ having no such system anywhere in the country would normally mean this would be a big undertaking that might get off the ground in the third year at best. But in what was basically a victory gift on day one, they got gifted a fully shovel ready light rail project by the Auckland transit agency who had been fighting the previous government on this for years. All the leg work was done. Engineering plans drawn up, properties identified to purchase, etc... All they had to do was give them some cash and there's one great big election promise ticked off on the first day. But no. Instead they take it off the local transit agency and give it to the national transport highway building agency. The road engineers there filibuster it long enough for the plonker of a minister in charge to get side-tracked by a shiny metro proposal delivered on half a dozen shitty power point slides an intern whipped up that morning while nursing a colossal hangover. Four years later and literally nothing has been done on something that was good to go on day one.

TLDR: Got gifted a major election promise on day one and pissed it away because of a shitty power point slide.

That being said it would take a complete 180 for anyone other than Ardern and Labour to win. She handled the pandemic well, which absolutely will stick in the mind of many, as well as the shooting before it as they play to her strengths. The pandemic has also seen the more able of her ministers take more prominent roles. Hopefully one or two of them will end up with housing and transport to get things back on track there because it's really needed. Similarly, hopefully she ends up becoming as ruthless as Cas is portraying her. God knows Twyford needs a slap on all four cheeks.

Personally I would definitely prefer Ardern and Labour to win, but with the Green's involved in some way (e.g. Genter as transport minister). Primarily because National are just terrible, but also because then we'll see exactly how much of this term was Peters dragging the chain and how much of it was Ardern's third-way/Blairite background. As much as I hope it was mostly the former, I fear much of it will be the latter.

EDIT: Hopefully this rambling mess makes sense. It's nearly 1am here in Owtearowa Un Zud at the time of posting, so may review and reformat tomorrow if I can be bothered/remember.

Unrelated to the above post, but we also need to add ranked voting into the mix.

Labour have led well without doing anything too seismic on the policy front. They can be forgiven for now given the current situation, but they rally haven't addressed poverty and income inequality, particularly as it impacts on young underserved minorities. I don't like that and it was a big part of their push for power, so I would like to see that change. In the back of my mind there is a little voice that says *she used to work for Tony Blair*, and I hope that stank has washed off.

Finally, National are just terrifyingly incompetent. Johns Keys sold the family silver and fucked off, and they don't seem to have any other tools in the box. Tax cuts and mental breakdowns is it. Thank fuck they weren't in charge when the Pest hit.

Just wanted to add that Collins' predecessor as LOTO, Todd Muller, looks like what you get if Homer Simpson fucked a poe-tay-toe.

First major party leaders' debate was on last night, and boy, what a waste of time it was.

It came off the wake of a devastating poll for the opposition, and is unlikely to change minds or change anyone's voting intentions. That said, it looks like the "My husband is Samoan, so talofa" comment by Collins has resonated... as a means of mockery at her expense.

How has lockdown/Covid response affected the economy and education there?

It's fucked tourism hard, which has been the biggest GDP contributor for a few years. Good chance to break free of that.

morepork wrote:It's fucked tourism hard, which has been the biggest GDP contributor for a few years. Good chance to break free of that.

Cheers.

Banquo wrote:How has lockdown/Covid response affected the economy and education there?

The Ministry of Education had to make significant amendments, easing the requirements to pass at each level of NCEA, including further amendments and easing exclusive to Auckland, where we had a second lockdown. My kids have mostly already passed the year as a result.

The girls in their final year at my school are completely demotivated and burned out though, and I can't really blame them, since they're basically missing out on pretty much every single milestone event for a high school kid.

Can someone please buy Paul Goldsmith a fucking calculator?

cashead wrote:

Banquo wrote:How has lockdown/Covid response affected the economy and education there?

The Ministry of Education had to make significant amendments, easing the requirements to pass at each level of NCEA, including further amendments and easing exclusive to Auckland, where we had a second lockdown. My kids have mostly already passed the year as a result.

The girls in their final year at my school are completely demotivated and burned out though, and I can't really blame them, since they're basically missing out on pretty much every single milestone event for a high school kid.

Same here for kids- it’s a massive chunk of their lives and as you say key years. My wife is a teacher- well just retired after 38 years- and she is distraught at what lockdown has done to ‘her kids’. Sad for them- 5-20 year olds, bad times.

Banquo wrote:

cashead wrote:

Banquo wrote:How has lockdown/Covid response affected the economy and education there?

The Ministry of Education had to make significant amendments, easing the requirements to pass at each level of NCEA, including further amendments and easing exclusive to Auckland, where we had a second lockdown. My kids have mostly already passed the year as a result.

The girls in their final year at my school are completely demotivated and burned out though, and I can't really blame them, since they're basically missing out on pretty much every single milestone event for a high school kid.

Same here for kids- it’s a massive chunk of their lives and as you say key years. My wife is a teacher- well just retired after 38 years- and she is distraught at what lockdown has done to ‘her kids’. Sad for them- 5-20 year olds, bad times.

This is going to sound opportunist, but are any formal long term studies of the effects of this going on? Employment, crime, social behavior all a few years down the track would likely be affected by this.

morepork wrote:

Banquo wrote:

cashead wrote: The Ministry of Education had to make significant amendments, easing the requirements to pass at each level of NCEA, including further amendments and easing exclusive to Auckland, where we had a second lockdown. My kids have mostly already passed the year as a result.

The girls in their final year at my school are completely demotivated and burned out though, and I can't really blame them, since they're basically missing out on pretty much every single milestone event for a high school kid.

Same here for kids- it’s a massive chunk of their lives and as you say key years. My wife is a teacher- well just retired after 38 years- and she is distraught at what lockdown has done to ‘her kids’. Sad for them- 5-20 year olds, bad times.

This is going to sound opportunist, but are any formal long term studies of the effects of this going on? Employment, crime, social behavior all a few years down the track would likely be affected by this.

Mental health too and big knock on from not using NHS (or rather, NHS closing to all bar Covid) for older folks.

morepork wrote:This is going to sound opportunist, but are any formal long term studies of the effects of this going on? Employment, crime, social behavior all a few years down the track would likely be affected by this.

There's on-going longitudinal studies -- like the Dunedin Study, Growing Up in NZ, and Pacific Island Families -- that will catch some things, but don't think anything specific has been whipped up.

So, it's been a big week for Judith Collins, the leader of the Opposition.

Pops in to church with a photographer and tweets out an image of her "praying" before putting in an early vote - leads to mockery and comparisons with Trump's "photo-op" with the prop bible and the church across the street from the White House.

Claims the 90-day Fire-At-Will law, which was scrapped immediately when Labour came in, should be reinstated because it means "employers would be willing to take risks on people of other ethnicities." Wow, what's that supposed to mean, Judy?

More leaks come out, with MP Denise Lee criticising Collins' flagging so-called leadership, and her tendency to make policy up on the fly, with little to no consultation, while also refusing to release polling data to her caucus.

Gets her shit pushed in at the third debate, where she's reduced to arguing with a hostile crowd and the moderator.

Is now talking about how she won't resign as LOTO if she loses the election.

So, let's talk about the referendums that are happening at the election - along with your customary 2 ticks, you get a choice on two matters:

Bringing the End of Life Bill into effect (it has effectively passed all hurdles as of November 2019) and cannabis legalisation and control (which would effectively make the Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis Party's existence moot, not that anyone cares).


So, the End of Life Choice Bill was written by David Seymour, and was drawn in a ballot (opposition MPs in NZ have chances to get laws passed, by having their bills put into a ballot, which get drawn and put into the parliamentary process. It's how the Marriage Equality Act was passed by Labour in 2013 while in opposition). Hilariously, this makes Seymour more effective in opposition than he ever was as part of the government.

Summed up, here's the requirements for anyone to say "yo, gimme the sweet embrace of death, fam."

• Be 18 years of age or older.
  Be a citizen or permanent resident of NZ.
  Suffer from a terminal illness that is likely to end their life within six months.
  Have significant and ongoing decline in physical capability.
  Experience unbearable suffering that cannot be eased.
  Be able to make an informed decision about assisted dying.

Of course, the "no don't!" side have put out a lot of emotive misinformation, like "kids will choose to off themselves!" and "people will euthanise others!" You know, the usual.


The Cannabis Legalisation and Control Bill is still in the parliamentary process, and this referendum was an absolute set out by NZ First. The bill, summed up allows for the following:

• Buy up to 14 grams of dried cannabis (or its equivalent) per day only from licensed outlets.
  Enter licensed premises where cannabis is sold or consumed.
  Consume cannabis on a private property or at a licensed premise.
  Grow up to two plants, with a maximum of four plants per household.
  Share up to 14 grams of dried cannabis (or its equivalent) with another person aged 20 or over.

Licensed outlets come in two forms - where you buy it, and where you consume it. Consumption outlets are just that - where you go and get stoned, if you're not at home. Retail outlets are not allowed to sell anything else, so you can't buy a cheeky pack of ciggies or a RTD vodka cruiser. Outlets will be overseen by a regulatory body, with strict caps on how much of the dank herb they can sell.

Like cigarettes, there won't be any flashy packaging, and will come with messaging discouraging consumption like plain packaging and health warnings, with labels required to indicate the level of THC and CBD there is, and how much that compares to the daily purchase limit.

Let's say you buy some of the good shit, that doesn't mean you can then just light up as you stroll down Lambton Quay either - it can only be consumed in licensed outlets or private residences (rental properties are still ambiguous, and expect that to be ironed out. Remember, that this bill is still at the process where this sort of shit gets identified, discussed and put into the amended legislation). You would also be allowed to buy space brownies, but that can still be banned if it's deemed "appealing" to kids. Other edibles like gummies are not allowed.

Socially, cannabis use is quite common, and even our own PM has admitted to blazing at 4:20 a few times in the past (as have I). Few, if any people (more on this later) are prosecuted for possession when it comes to weed, and it has effectively been decriminalised by stealth - as long as you're not Maori, where studies have found that Maori are pretty much almost exclusively targeted for prosecution for possession for weed. It also destabilises a black market run by the gangs.

Going from bad to worse for National:

Judith Collins did a walkabout in Ponsonby (a fairly posh suburb that is at the heart of the Auckland Central electorate that National currently holds), pressing the flesh and meeting with locals.

One problem - it didn't take long for the accompanying media to notice that "the locals" were obvious National Party plants, including the campaign manager of Emma Mellow, the candidate that National have put up for the electorate seat (pictured in the article with the fuck-ugly shoes).

To make matters worse, a local business she tried to enter turned her away, and made it clear they weren't fans of her. And as if to deliver one final insult, a cafe she walked into had an informal poll going on, where patrons could place an appropriate coloured M&M into the appropriately labelled jar, giving a snapshot of the patrons' political preferences - the jar labelled National was almost empty, while the Labour jar was well on its way to being filled.


https://www.newsroom.co.nz/a-low-point-on-ponsonby-rd