RugbyRebels

Scots want out... Welsh also looking for the door
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... dependence

Zhivago wrote:Scots want out... Welsh also looking for the door
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... dependence

Scotland has been heading that way for months, although I wonder if the current problems faced by Sturgeon will dent those figures?

I’d be very surprised if Wales voted for independence any time soon. Boris isn’t popular but compared to Drakeford he is. I hear a number of older voters who consider that the devolved parliament is a waste of money and should be scrapped, so it would take a huge shift in the younger vote to overcome that resistance.

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:Scots want out... Welsh also looking for the door
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... dependence

Scotland has been heading that way for months, although I wonder if the current problems faced by Sturgeon will dent those figures?

I’d be very surprised if Wales voted for independence any time soon. Boris isn’t popular but compared to Drakeford he is. I hear a number of older voters who consider that the devolved parliament is a waste of money and should be scrapped, so it would take a huge shift in the younger vote to overcome that resistance.

I think the only risk of Wales going down that path is if Scotland and Northern Ireland exit the union.

Zhivago wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:Scots want out... Welsh also looking for the door
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... dependence

Scotland has been heading that way for months, although I wonder if the current problems faced by Sturgeon will dent those figures?

I’d be very surprised if Wales voted for independence any time soon. Boris isn’t popular but compared to Drakeford he is. I hear a number of older voters who consider that the devolved parliament is a waste of money and should be scrapped, so it would take a huge shift in the younger vote to overcome that resistance.

I think the only risk of Wales going down that path is if Scotland and Northern Ireland exit the union.

I'd've thought those two going was now a foregone conclusion - it's just a question of which first.

The SNP have successfully linked Scottish Labour to being in bed with the Conservatives in the Scottish electorate's mind after the first IndyRef and have taken over all of their liberal (small l) votes, leaving Scotland a choice between them and the Tories, who start from a low mark in Scotland anyway and have hardly been leading a charm offensive of late. Polls already suggest that leave is leading and any vote done while Boris is in charge gives the SNP an open goal of "Do you want to be led by this clown and those like him forever?"

As for the N.Irish, they have got both ends of a shitty stick over Brexit and claims that Westminster cares about them are somewhat undermined by Boris chucking them under the bus in the name of his deal. If Ireland continue to offer a fairly decent leadership to the south and Brexit continues 'winning', I can see the calls for a vote becoming much louder.

Puja

Puja wrote:

Zhivago wrote:

Sandydragon wrote: Scotland has been heading that way for months, although I wonder if the current problems faced by Sturgeon will dent those figures?

I’d be very surprised if Wales voted for independence any time soon. Boris isn’t popular but compared to Drakeford he is. I hear a number of older voters who consider that the devolved parliament is a waste of money and should be scrapped, so it would take a huge shift in the younger vote to overcome that resistance.

I think the only risk of Wales going down that path is if Scotland and Northern Ireland exit the union.

I'd've thought those two going was now a foregone conclusion - it's just a question of which first.

The SNP have successfully linked Scottish Labour to being in bed with the Conservatives in the Scottish electorate's mind after the first IndyRef and have taken over all of their liberal (small l) votes, leaving Scotland a choice between them and the Tories, who start from a low mark in Scotland anyway and have hardly been leading a charm offensive of late. Polls already suggest that leave is leading and any vote done while Boris is in charge gives the SNP an open goal of "Do you want to be led by this clown and those like him forever?"

As for the N.Irish, they have got both ends of a shitty stick over Brexit and claims that Westminster cares about them are somewhat undermined by Boris chucking them under the bus in the name of his deal. If Ireland continue to offer a fairly decent leadership to the south and Brexit continues 'winning', I can see the calls for a vote becoming much louder.

Puja

I don't think it's a foregone conclusion. It can be headed off by constitutional reform.

That said, clearly the current Tory leadership is too incompetent to enact the necessary changes. The Labour leadership is too incompetent to seriously challenge the Tories for power.

So unless something changes, we are definitely going down the path to another national crisis. The potential for damage is huge, in a worst case scenario akin to the fall of the USSR, best case like Czechoslovakia.

Brexit is a poor comparison because with the UK we are talking about a monetary union as well as political. That brings additional challenges.

Zhivago wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:Scots want out... Welsh also looking for the door
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/202 ... dependence

Scotland has been heading that way for months, although I wonder if the current problems faced by Sturgeon will dent those figures?

I’d be very surprised if Wales voted for independence any time soon. Boris isn’t popular but compared to Drakeford he is. I hear a number of older voters who consider that the devolved parliament is a waste of money and should be scrapped, so it would take a huge shift in the younger vote to overcome that resistance.

I think the only risk of Wales going down that path is if Scotland and Northern Ireland exit the union.

Agreed.

There are a decent number in the SNP utterly disgusted with Johnson and his very likely threat of removing their meal ticket

Zhivago wrote:

Puja wrote:

Zhivago wrote:
I think the only risk of Wales going down that path is if Scotland and Northern Ireland exit the union.

I'd've thought those two going was now a foregone conclusion - it's just a question of which first.

The SNP have successfully linked Scottish Labour to being in bed with the Conservatives in the Scottish electorate's mind after the first IndyRef and have taken over all of their liberal (small l) votes, leaving Scotland a choice between them and the Tories, who start from a low mark in Scotland anyway and have hardly been leading a charm offensive of late. Polls already suggest that leave is leading and any vote done while Boris is in charge gives the SNP an open goal of "Do you want to be led by this clown and those like him forever?"

As for the N.Irish, they have got both ends of a shitty stick over Brexit and claims that Westminster cares about them are somewhat undermined by Boris chucking them under the bus in the name of his deal. If Ireland continue to offer a fairly decent leadership to the south and Brexit continues 'winning', I can see the calls for a vote becoming much louder.

Puja

I don't think it's a foregone conclusion. It can be headed off by constitutional reform.

That said, clearly the current Tory leadership is too incompetent to enact the necessary changes. The Labour leadership is too incompetent to seriously challenge the Tories for power.

So unless something changes, we are definitely going down the path to another national crisis. The potential for damage is huge, in a worst case scenario akin to the fall of the USSR, best case like Czechoslovakia.

Brexit is a poor comparison because with the UK we are talking about a monetary union as well as political. That brings additional challenges.

The only thing I can see that would achieve that is a fully federal arrangement (which I personally in favour of) but I don't see any interest in that amongst the Conservative Party leadership at the moment. That would potentially kick the can down the road for a bit longer

One rarely seems the fall of the USSR described as a worst case scenario. Bring on the worst case please if that's the standard

Digby wrote:One rarely sees the fall of the USSR described as a worst case scenario. Bring on the worst case please if that's the standard

An unbelievably stupid comment. If you look at both Ukraine and Russia - perhaps view them in terms of Ukraine being the one who exited (cf. Scotland) and Russia the one who they split from (cf. England). Although Ukraine suffered slightly more than Russia, both suffered GDP declines of more than 50% and their economy took 15 years to recover to its pre-collapse size.

On a micro-level that means hundreds of thousands of businesses going out of business, large and small. My father-in-law had a business that collapsed because of the fall of the USSR, and it hit him particularly hard. Not something I wish to see the UK emulate. Better to learn from others' mistakes.

It is absolutely not something to be saying 'bring it on' about.

Zhivago wrote:

Digby wrote:One rarely sees the fall of the USSR described as a worst case scenario. Bring on the worst case please if that's the standard

An unbelievably stupid comment. If you look at both Ukraine and Russia - perhaps view them in terms of Ukraine being the one who exited (cf. Scotland) and Russia the one who they split from (cf. England). Although Ukraine suffered slightly more than Russia, both suffered GDP declines of more than 50% and their economy took 15 years to recover to its pre-collapse size.

On a micro-level that means hundreds of thousands of businesses going out of business, large and small. My father-in-law had a business that collapsed because of the fall of the USSR, and it hit him particularly hard. Not something I wish to see the UK emulate. Better to learn from others' mistakes.

It is absolutely not something to be saying 'bring it on' about.

There are worst case scenarios which are even more horrific - I'm thinking of Yugoslavia here.Thats not to dismiss the economic impact of Russia and Ukraine, but Digby has a point in that it could have been far worse.

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:

Digby wrote:One rarely sees the fall of the USSR described as a worst case scenario. Bring on the worst case please if that's the standard

An unbelievably stupid comment. If you look at both Ukraine and Russia - perhaps view them in terms of Ukraine being the one who exited (cf. Scotland) and Russia the one who they split from (cf. England). Although Ukraine suffered slightly more than Russia, both suffered GDP declines of more than 50% and their economy took 15 years to recover to its pre-collapse size.

On a micro-level that means hundreds of thousands of businesses going out of business, large and small. My father-in-law had a business that collapsed because of the fall of the USSR, and it hit him particularly hard. Not something I wish to see the UK emulate. Better to learn from others' mistakes.

It is absolutely not something to be saying 'bring it on' about.

There are worst case scenarios which are even more horrific - I'm thinking of Yugoslavia here.Thats not to dismiss the economic impact of Russia and Ukraine, but Digby has a point in that it could have been far worse.

Those worse factors don't mean the USSR was a good thing, and it doesn't become other than a bad thing on the basis of two wrongs make an earlier right

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:

Digby wrote:One rarely sees the fall of the USSR described as a worst case scenario. Bring on the worst case please if that's the standard

An unbelievably stupid comment. If you look at both Ukraine and Russia - perhaps view them in terms of Ukraine being the one who exited (cf. Scotland) and Russia the one who they split from (cf. England). Although Ukraine suffered slightly more than Russia, both suffered GDP declines of more than 50% and their economy took 15 years to recover to its pre-collapse size.

On a micro-level that means hundreds of thousands of businesses going out of business, large and small. My father-in-law had a business that collapsed because of the fall of the USSR, and it hit him particularly hard. Not something I wish to see the UK emulate. Better to learn from others' mistakes.

It is absolutely not something to be saying 'bring it on' about.

There are worst case scenarios which are even more horrific - I'm thinking of Yugoslavia here.Thats not to dismiss the economic impact of Russia and Ukraine, but Digby has a point in that it could have been far worse.

I chose the fall of USSR and not something like Yugoslavia because I just don't see a civil war as a realistic scenario at all.

Zhivago wrote:

Sandydragon wrote:

Zhivago wrote:
An unbelievably stupid comment. If you look at both Ukraine and Russia - perhaps view them in terms of Ukraine being the one who exited (cf. Scotland) and Russia the one who they split from (cf. England). Although Ukraine suffered slightly more than Russia, both suffered GDP declines of more than 50% and their economy took 15 years to recover to its pre-collapse size.

On a micro-level that means hundreds of thousands of businesses going out of business, large and small. My father-in-law had a business that collapsed because of the fall of the USSR, and it hit him particularly hard. Not something I wish to see the UK emulate. Better to learn from others' mistakes.

It is absolutely not something to be saying 'bring it on' about.

There are worst case scenarios which are even more horrific - I'm thinking of Yugoslavia here.Thats not to dismiss the economic impact of Russia and Ukraine, but Digby has a point in that it could have been far worse.

I chose the fall of USSR and not something like Yugoslavia because I just don't see a civil war as a realistic scenario at all.

Northern Ireland?

‘Scuse the ignorance, but is there any real talk of 2 or all of Scotland, Wales or NI remaining in a union of some sort independent of England?

There is precious little detail on what any future will look like. The last vote on this had Alex 'not a sex pest' Salmond set out a vision for Scotland that was based on oil prices being $110 a barrel, and really only rising from that point on. And that's about as close to any actual detail anyone has ever set out unless you're happy with aa Brexit style promise of the future will only ever be sunlit uplands if you give us your trust, said at the time before oil crashed down below $20 a barrel

There must be some chat on the basis of a union of independent countries, but it's not getting much if any coverage. It doesn't seem an easy sell Vs going as they are and suggesting people ignore practical realities, and indeed just reality period to scream freedom, just to immediately say you'll be joining a union but a different and shinier one to that which you've just left.

There is some chat on the UK side about the need to progress decentralisation across the UK, because local decision making gives better outcomes. But it's not clear what that means, nor even why that would always be true, and so far many of the efforts to decentralise by central government accidentally only increase central control

Lizard wrote:‘Scuse the ignorance, but is there any real talk of 2 or all of Scotland, Wales or NI remaining in a union of some sort independent of England?

We just need a Wales-Scotland tunnel and a union's in the bag.

I've not heard of any talk. The natural thing would just be to all separately rejoin the EU. Would Scotland and Wales really want to take on NI's history and divisions (and keep it away from Ireland)? However the three would form a British group in the EU and could well agree some special, closer ties.

I guess if independence really started looking likely in Wales, this might come up as an option. If it weren't for the geography, a Scotland-Wales union would be a good fit. (Maybe we could buy the M6 from England? )

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Lizard wrote:‘Scuse the ignorance, but is there any real talk of 2 or all of Scotland, Wales or NI remaining in a union of some sort independent of England?

We just need a Wales-Scotland tunnel and a union's in the bag.

I've not heard of any talk. The natural thing would just be to all separately rejoin the EU. Would Scotland and Wales really want to take on NI's history and divisions (and keep it away from Ireland)? However the three would form a British group in the EU and could well agree some special, closer ties.

I guess if independence really started looking likely in Wales, this might come up as an option. If it weren't for the geography, a Scotland-Wales union would be a good fit. (Maybe we could buy the M6 from England? )

Pretty much exactly what I was gonna say - makes far more sense to join the EU. They'd be able to have their independence while staying within the aegis of a bigger power and the EU already has far smaller countries than even Wales. Plus, it'd be a significant fuck you to England, which is really the Welsh and Scots' driving force.

Puja

Just join the EU... it's not quite as simple as go independent today join the EU tomorrow. If it were that simple, independence would already be in the bag, at least in Scotland.

The reality is leaving the UK is the beginning of a 15+ year journey to joining the EU, and selling that to an electorate is not an easy task.

This isn't a quick read but it's a comprehensive and balanced view of the potential journey back to the EU For Scotland, and I would guess something similar would hold for an independent Wales.

https://populistsplaybook.com/blog-2/th ... ncealment/

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Puja wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Lizard wrote:‘Scuse the ignorance, but is there any real talk of 2 or all of Scotland, Wales or NI remaining in a union of some sort independent of England?

We just need a Wales-Scotland tunnel and a union's in the bag.

I've not heard of any talk. The natural thing would just be to all separately rejoin the EU. Would Scotland and Wales really want to take on NI's history and divisions (and keep it away from Ireland)? However the three would form a British group in the EU and could well agree some special, closer ties.

I guess if independence really started looking likely in Wales, this might come up as an option. If it weren't for the geography, a Scotland-Wales union would be a good fit. (Maybe we could buy the M6 from England? )

Pretty much exactly what I was gonna say - makes far more sense to join the EU. They'd be able to have their independence while staying within the aegis of a bigger power and the EU already has far smaller countries than even Wales. Plus, it'd be a significant fuck you to England, which is really the Welsh and Scots' driving force.

Puja

Nonsense. Such base motivation is beneath us.

Donny osmond wrote:Just join the EU... it's not quite as simple as go independent today join the EU tomorrow. If it were that simple, independence would already be in the bag, at least in Scotland.

The reality is leaving the UK is the beginning of a 15+ year journey to joining the EU, and selling that to an electorate is not an easy task.

This isn't a quick read but it's a comprehensive and balanced view of the potential journey back to the EU For Scotland, and I would guess something similar would hold for an independent Wales.

https://populistsplaybook.com/blog-2/th ... ncealment/

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

Do you really think so? Surely the Euro is the only stumbling block to Scotland rejoining the EU within 5 years of independence? And IMO 5 years is the longest it would take.

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Donny osmond wrote:Just join the EU... it's not quite as simple as go independent today join the EU tomorrow. If it were that simple, independence would already be in the bag, at least in Scotland.

The reality is leaving the UK is the beginning of a 15+ year journey to joining the EU, and selling that to an electorate is not an easy task.

This isn't a quick read but it's a comprehensive and balanced view of the potential journey back to the EU For Scotland, and I would guess something similar would hold for an independent Wales.

https://populistsplaybook.com/blog-2/th ... ncealment/

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

Do you really think so? Surely the Euro is the only stumbling block to Scotland rejoining the EU within 5 years of independence? And IMO 5 years is the longest it would take.

Based on what?

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Donny osmond wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Donny osmond wrote:Just join the EU... it's not quite as simple as go independent today join the EU tomorrow. If it were that simple, independence would already be in the bag, at least in Scotland.

The reality is leaving the UK is the beginning of a 15+ year journey to joining the EU, and selling that to an electorate is not an easy task.

This isn't a quick read but it's a comprehensive and balanced view of the potential journey back to the EU For Scotland, and I would guess something similar would hold for an independent Wales.

https://populistsplaybook.com/blog-2/th ... ncealment/

Sent from my CPH1951 using Tapatalk

Do you really think so? Surely the Euro is the only stumbling block to Scotland rejoining the EU within 5 years of independence? And IMO 5 years is the longest it would take.

Based on what?

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Scotland voted against Brexit. If they leave the UK, why would they not want to undo Brexit at the first opportunity?

Of course there are many steps to the process but they should be easily fulfilled. (Obviously, if a member decides to veto the application, Scotland can't get in, and that's it.)

NB there's no precedent for a recent former member rejoining the EU but it would clearly be easier than for any applicant accepted in the last 20 years).

(I like the way that Iceland's application process has been 'frozen' )

Son of Mathonwy wrote:

Donny osmond wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote: Do you really think so? Surely the Euro is the only stumbling block to Scotland rejoining the EU within 5 years of independence? And IMO 5 years is the longest it would take.

Based on what?

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Scotland voted against Brexit. If they leave the UK, why would they not want to undo Brexit at the first opportunity?

Of course there are many steps to the process but they should be easily fulfilled. (Obviously, if a member decides to veto the application, Scotland can't get in, and that's it.)

NB there's no precedent for a recent former member rejoining the EU but it would clearly be easier than for any applicant accepted in the last 20 years).

(I like the way that Iceland's application process has been 'frozen' )

The obstacle that I can see is Spain. With Catalonia angling for independence and the possibility of the Basque asking to follow suit, they want to follow the English approach in the previous IndyRef of denying that EU membership could easily be acquired for any region that wants to break away. They might veto on that ground.

Mind, they would've definitely been against if Scotland had broken from a UK that was within the EU and wanted to rejoin, but a Scotland breaking from a UK outside of the EU and wanting to join up might be a different kettle of fish.

Puja

You cannot just join the EU because you want to, you have to be able to show some budgetary responsibility which both Scotland and Wales are a long way from achieving, even 15 years might be an optimistic take on getting back into the EU. And you've got to wonder who'd even win an election promising to cut spending to try and achieve EU membership?