Afghanistan

[Zhivago]

If I'm not mistaken, a couple of you served in Afghanistan (or at least Sandy did?). Anyway, what's your take on the situation? Going to hell in a handcart?

What do we think will happen? Taliban in government? China getting involved? Russia? Iran? Did US make a deal with the Taliban re withdrawal?

[Sandydragon]

If I'm not mistaken, a couple of you served in Afghanistan (or at least Sandy did?). Anyway, what's your take on the situation? Going to hell in a handcart?

What do we think will happen? Taliban in government? China getting involved? Russia? Iran? Did US make a deal with the Taliban re withdrawal?

If the US have made a deal about the long term governance of Afghanistan, I would expect it to be ignored. Once the last ground troops are gone, Western ability to influence anything goes as well.

There is terrible corruption in much of the government and it would appear that many of the government's army units are not that keen on actually fighting without western troops and airpower to back them up. Its not entire cut and dried, but if I were forced to wager, I would bet on a Taliban government in the next year or so.

What I think will happen is that the local warlords of old will rearm and also fight the Taleban. The northern tribes were at war before we got involved so that is likely to continue, but I would expect Kabul to fall. Russia might supply some weapons on the side, but I'd be surprised if Putin actually got involved. Now the US is out, where's the gain for him (although countries bordering Afghanistan are already complaining at refugees and the general security situation so there might be some clashes ahead).

As for China - genuinely don't know. They do of course have a land border with Afghanistan but would they be interested? The Chinese government isnt a fan of Muslims within its borders, but then it does do business with a wide range of governments. I would expect more of a development/business type deal with whatever faction is strongest rather than direct intervention.

[Zhivago]

If I'm not mistaken, a couple of you served in Afghanistan (or at least Sandy did?). Anyway, what's your take on the situation? Going to hell in a handcart?

What do we think will happen? Taliban in government? China getting involved? Russia? Iran? Did US make a deal with the Taliban re withdrawal?

If the US have made a deal about the long term governance of Afghanistan, I would expect it to be ignored.I assume they'll be sensible enough to keep to the Doha agreement where they committed to not harbour Al-Qaida. They'd be stupid not to. Once the last ground troops are gone, Western ability to influence anything goes as well.

There is terrible corruption in much of the government and it would appear that many of the government's army units are not that keen on actually fighting without western troops and airpower to back them up. Its not entire cut and dried, but if I were forced to wager, I would bet on a Taliban government in the next year or so. This seems to be the most likely outcome to me.

What I think will happen is that the local warlords of old will rearm and also fight the Taliban. The northern tribes were at war before we got involved so that is likely to continue, but I would expect Kabul to fall. Russia might supply some weapons on the side, but I'd be surprised if Putin actually got involved. Now the US is out, where's the gain for him (although countries bordering Afghanistan are already complaining at refugees and the general security situation so there might be some clashes ahead).I definitely think that a refugee flow will focus some minds

As for China - genuinely don't know. They do of course have a land border with Afghanistan but would they be interested? The Chinese government isnt a fan of Muslims within its borders, but then it does do business with a wide range of governments. I would expect more of a development/business type deal with whatever faction is strongest rather than direct intervention.

Hard to imagine the Taliban negotiating much when they're making such strong gains.

[Sandydragon]

If I'm not mistaken, a couple of you served in Afghanistan (or at least Sandy did?). Anyway, what's your take on the situation? Going to hell in a handcart?

What do we think will happen? Taliban in government? China getting involved? Russia? Iran? Did US make a deal with the Taliban re withdrawal?

If the US have made a deal about the long term governance of Afghanistan, I would expect it to be ignored.I assume they'll be sensible enough to keep to the Doha agreement where they committed to not harbour Al-Qaida. They'd be stupid not to. Once the last ground troops are gone, Western ability to influence anything goes as well.

There is terrible corruption in much of the government and it would appear that many of the government's army units are not that keen on actually fighting without western troops and airpower to back them up. Its not entire cut and dried, but if I were forced to wager, I would bet on a Taliban government in the next year or so. This seems to be the most likely outcome to me.

What I think will happen is that the local warlords of old will rearm and also fight the Taliban. The northern tribes were at war before we got involved so that is likely to continue, but I would expect Kabul to fall. Russia might supply some weapons on the side, but I'd be surprised if Putin actually got involved. Now the US is out, where's the gain for him (although countries bordering Afghanistan are already complaining at refugees and the general security situation so there might be some clashes ahead).I definitely think that a refugee flow will focus some minds

As for China - genuinely don't know. They do of course have a land border with Afghanistan but would they be interested? The Chinese government isnt a fan of Muslims within its borders, but then it does do business with a wide range of governments. I would expect more of a development/business type deal with whatever faction is strongest rather than direct intervention.

Hard to imagine the Taliban negotiating much when they're making such strong gains.

The number of non Pashtun majority areas dominated by the Taleban is interesting. Either non Pashtuns are backing a winner in the hope of peace, or they don’t have the means to fight back.

[Zhivago]

The number of non Pashtun majority areas dominated by the Taleban is interesting. Either non Pashtuns are backing a winner in the hope of peace, or they don’t have the means to fight back.

Yeah, my thoughts exactly - I was expecting the north to hold out much longer, places like the Wakhan corridor etc.

Looking at this map of the ethnicity demographics, it looks like only the Hazaras are holding out. I guess the rest are either fleeing until this is resolved and in any case not putting up much resistance. Mind you, I hope the Afghan Gov forces are regrouping, tactical withdrawal perhaps?

[Sandydragon]

Every time I look at that map I wonder if a Pashtunistan is such a bad idea.

I think the performance of the ANA is mixed. Some units will fight hard but many are less committed and some will change allegiance at the drop of a hat. If there is resistance in non Pashtun area then I’m expecting it to be largely militia led. Many Afghans may accept the Taleban because they ‘won’ against the Americans and other westerners which is powerful propaganda.

[Zhivago]

Every time I look at that map I wonder if a Pashtunistan is such a bad idea.

I think the performance of the ANA is mixed. Some units will fight hard but many are less committed and some will change allegiance at the drop of a hat. If there is resistance in non Pashtun area then I’m expecting it to be largely militia led. Many Afghans may accept the Taleban because they ‘won’ against the Americans and other westerners which is powerful propaganda.

National borders created without considering ethnic demographics are always a recipe for disaster. Either you have a larger state and have some form of federal setup, or just have smaller states. My understanding is that Pashtuns are essentially Afghans and the rest of the ethnic groups are minorities.

Maybe the US should have carved the country up, but I guess that didn't fit with foreign policy goals. Can definitely imagine a solution where you hand the Uzbek parts to Uzbekistan, Tajik, Kyrgyz, etc the same. Hazaras and Pashtuns get their own state although obviously Pakistan keeps its current Pashtun territory.

Or perhaps you fund the Taliban, or ideally another Pashtun group or at least a more moderate wing if such a thing exists and take the Pakistan parts by force with a non-state group.

[Sandydragon]

Every time I look at that map I wonder if a Pashtunistan is such a bad idea.

I think the performance of the ANA is mixed. Some units will fight hard but many are less committed and some will change allegiance at the drop of a hat. If there is resistance in non Pashtun area then I’m expecting it to be largely militia led. Many Afghans may accept the Taleban because they ‘won’ against the Americans and other westerners which is powerful propaganda.

National borders created without considering ethnic demographics are always a recipe for disaster. Either you have a larger state and have some form of federal setup, or just have smaller states. My understanding is that Pashtuns are essentially Afghans and the rest of the ethnic groups are minorities.

Maybe the US should have carved the country up, but I guess that didn't fit with foreign policy goals. Can definitely imagine a solution where you hand the Uzbek parts to Uzbekistan, Tajik, Kyrgyz, etc the same. Hazaras and Pashtuns get their own state although obviously Pakistan keeps its current Pashtun territory.

Or perhaps you fund the Taliban, or ideally another Pashtun group or at least a more moderate wing if such a thing exists and take the Pakistan parts by force with a non-state group.

Really soundly want that level of instability in a nuclear armed state! Many non-Pashtun Afghans would certainly kill you for suggesting they aren't real Afghans, but I understand what you are suggesting.

The Taliban is lazy reporting that often includes a plethora of smaller groups. But most are a long way from moderate.

[kk67]

It always seems rather disingenuous to me when a countries problems are defined by religious or factional disagreements.
Afghanistan's problems are summed up in one word, and that word is Heroin. Everything else is just misdirection. The English, the yanks and the Russians all wanted to control the heroin trade.

[kk67]

And they continue,.....and no one wants to mention heroin. Tragic.
It's not a conspiracy theory. It's actual.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Don't worry guys, Boris is recalling parliament. I'm sure we'll have a diplomatic solution by Wednesday.

[Digby]

Parliament should be recalled, I doubt anyone has a good idea though.

[Galfon]

Ghani's legged it.

[Sandydragon]

Parliament should be recalled, I doubt anyone has a good idea though.

The time to sort this out was when Trump was prepared to agree to the deal. It was clear that the loss of specialist support would hit the ANA hard. Politicians have been over estimating the ANAs capabilities for years but even their best troops are screwed without ammunition.

Maybe we could have cobbled together a NATO or UN force but I don’t think we have the credibility for that. More likely I suspect that the UK government was quite happy to bring our troops home and end this commitment whilst being able to blame the Americans if it went to shit.

[Mellsblue]

This is the illogical conclusion of the West’s new consensus that we should not stick our nose in other people’s business.
Our interventions may not be perfect, far from it, but it’s better than leaving complete nutters like the Taliban in charge.

[morepork]

So “would like fries and a coke with you occupation” fails another foreign policy litmus test. What a shock.

[Digby]

Fails? A lot of very dubious people made millions and millions depriving society of a useful spend of the tax/borrowing, and that was rather the point.

[morepork]

Take a bow Blackwater.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Seriously disappointing foreign policy fail by Biden, followed by unbelievable denial of error. Dishonesty, back-covering and isolationism.

[Puja]

Seriously disappointing foreign policy fail by Biden, followed by unbelievable denial of error. Dishonesty, back-covering and isolationism.

While I'm not denying it was an appalling policy failure, he had little to no choice in the matter. "Disentangling America from overseas military adventures," was a popular policy for both Trump and Biden and if he'd disavowed it on the grounds of logic and common sense, it likely would have cost him the election.

Puja

[morepork]

Seriously disappointing foreign policy fail by Biden, followed by unbelievable denial of error. Dishonesty, back-covering and isolationism.

While I'm not denying it was an appalling policy failure, he had little to no choice in the matter. "Disentangling America from overseas military adventures," was a popular policy for both Trump and Biden and if he'd disavowed it on the grounds of logic and common sense, it likely would have cost him the election.

Puja

You can chalk this one up to the American public. For consecutive administrations, this occupation was hidden from domestic view under layers of sickly sweet anti-terroriser bo-locks. Then the Fat Golfer starts chanting catch phrases handed to him by his bigoted digital media organisers and the opposition has no choice but to ride the wave of sheer ignorance that it propelled forward or get swept aside at the polls. The Taliban could see this telegraphed a fucking mile away, like an Owen Farrell dummy, and simply sat it out and waited. They even managed to get dates and a few thousand battle-hardened swinging dicks released out of the Fat Golfer. The only genuine surprise at the how swift it was seems to be the American voting public.

There is no effective opposition in the US, and the executive branch of government is in dire need of a sharp genital cuff and bought into line. What does it take for congress to look the other way? A twix and an Amazon voucher? Aren't these things supposed to get congressional approval? How can such an incompetent spineless pack of shit gibbons hold so much power to fuck so many people in the world over. Iran, Vietnam, Korea, Grenada, Iraq, the Kurds, Libya, Afghanistan. That is an outrageous list of FUCK.

[Son of Mathonwy]

Seriously disappointing foreign policy fail by Biden, followed by unbelievable denial of error. Dishonesty, back-covering and isolationism.

While I'm not denying it was an appalling policy failure, he had little to no choice in the matter. "Disentangling America from overseas military adventures," was a popular policy for both Trump and Biden and if he'd disavowed it on the grounds of logic and common sense, it likely would have cost him the election.

Puja

You can chalk this one up to the American public. For consecutive administrations, this occupation was hidden from domestic view under layers of sickly sweet anti-terroriser bo-locks. Then the Fat Golfer starts chanting catch phrases handed to him by his bigoted digital media organisers and the opposition has no choice but to ride the wave of sheer ignorance that it propelled forward or get swept aside at the polls. The Taliban could see this telegraphed a fucking mile away, like an Owen Farrell dummy, and simply sat it out and waited. They even managed to get dates and a few thousand battle-hardened swinging dicks released out of the Fat Golfer. The only genuine surprise at the how swift it was seems to be the American voting public.

There is no effective opposition in the US, and the executive branch of government is in dire need of a sharp genital cuff and bought into line. What does it take for congress to look the other way? A twix and an Amazon voucher? Aren't these things supposed to get congressional approval? How can such an incompetent spineless pack of shit gibbons hold so much power to fuck so many people in the world over. Iran, Vietnam, Korea, Grenada, Iraq, the Kurds, Libya, Afghanistan. That is an outrageous list of FUCK.

Isolationism may well be popular but that doesn't mean Biden had to completely pull out in the first year of his presidency. And, had he known what at total catastrophe this was going to be, I firmly believe he would have taken two or three years to do a sensible job of it. That's why I think he's lying now, just doing that politician thing of never admitting to a mistake.

[Puja]

While I'm not denying it was an appalling policy failure, he had little to no choice in the matter. "Disentangling America from overseas military adventures," was a popular policy for both Trump and Biden and if he'd disavowed it on the grounds of logic and common sense, it likely would have cost him the election.

Puja

You can chalk this one up to the American public. For consecutive administrations, this occupation was hidden from domestic view under layers of sickly sweet anti-terroriser bo-locks. Then the Fat Golfer starts chanting catch phrases handed to him by his bigoted digital media organisers and the opposition has no choice but to ride the wave of sheer ignorance that it propelled forward or get swept aside at the polls. The Taliban could see this telegraphed a fucking mile away, like an Owen Farrell dummy, and simply sat it out and waited. They even managed to get dates and a few thousand battle-hardened swinging dicks released out of the Fat Golfer. The only genuine surprise at the how swift it was seems to be the American voting public.

There is no effective opposition in the US, and the executive branch of government is in dire need of a sharp genital cuff and bought into line. What does it take for congress to look the other way? A twix and an Amazon voucher? Aren't these things supposed to get congressional approval? How can such an incompetent spineless pack of shit gibbons hold so much power to fuck so many people in the world over. Iran, Vietnam, Korea, Grenada, Iraq, the Kurds, Libya, Afghanistan. That is an outrageous list of FUCK.

Isolationism may well be popular but that doesn't mean Biden had to completely pull out in the first year of his presidency. And, had he known what at total catastrophe this was going to be, I firmly believe he would have taken two or three years to do a sensible job of it. That's why I think he's lying now, just doing that politician thing of never admitting to a mistake.

Out of interest, why would there have been a noticeably better result after two or three years?

Puja

[Son of Mathonwy]

You can chalk this one up to the American public. For consecutive administrations, this occupation was hidden from domestic view under layers of sickly sweet anti-terroriser bo-locks. Then the Fat Golfer starts chanting catch phrases handed to him by his bigoted digital media organisers and the opposition has no choice but to ride the wave of sheer ignorance that it propelled forward or get swept aside at the polls. The Taliban could see this telegraphed a fucking mile away, like an Owen Farrell dummy, and simply sat it out and waited. They even managed to get dates and a few thousand battle-hardened swinging dicks released out of the Fat Golfer. The only genuine surprise at the how swift it was seems to be the American voting public.

There is no effective opposition in the US, and the executive branch of government is in dire need of a sharp genital cuff and bought into line. What does it take for congress to look the other way? A twix and an Amazon voucher? Aren't these things supposed to get congressional approval? How can such an incompetent spineless pack of shit gibbons hold so much power to fuck so many people in the world over. Iran, Vietnam, Korea, Grenada, Iraq, the Kurds, Libya, Afghanistan. That is an outrageous list of FUCK.

Isolationism may well be popular but that doesn't mean Biden had to completely pull out in the first year of his presidency. And, had he known what at total catastrophe this was going to be, I firmly believe he would have taken two or three years to do a sensible job of it. That's why I think he's lying now, just doing that politician thing of never admitting to a mistake.

Out of interest, why would there have been a noticeably better result after two or three years?

Puja

Sure:
Not following a plan formulated by Trump.
Not following a plan with a fixed and publicly known date for completion, a date based on an anniversary rather than any measure of the current situation.
The more gradual a handover, the better, giving more time for gaps and weaknesses to be identified and dealt with as Afghans take over from US personnel.
Time to potentially build an alternative structure to support the democratic Afgan regime: the UN or NATO could have shared the work, or the US could have shrunk to a permanent advisory function supplemented by 'military contractors'.
Time to gather more reliable intelligence and military assessments.
If it was seen that none of the above was likely to work, a negotiated and gradual inclusion of the Taliban to the official power structure would have been better (less deadly, less of a visible failure, possibly with a less extreme final result) than this civil war and military takeover.

[Digby]

NATO share the workload? Not sure they would or anyone would trust them