RugbyRebels

It’s that time again!

The question that will be answered on Saturday is whether the Wales team can rise above the mediocrity of the URC and put on a performance against Ireland.

I believe they can but most pundits have already written us off pointing to a comfortable win for the Paddies.

One of the big downers we face is the ref - Jaco Peyper - who seems to be a real homer when making the big decisions like he did on the weekend when he failed to dish out a red card for the no-arms tackle directly to the head with the shoulder.

Perhaps having got that wrong in an Irish/Welsh game he might just give us the benefit of the doubt in the 50/50 calls.

Really looking forward to the first game.

As usual, logic screams that we don't stand a chance. It's away. We can barely compete at the regional level. And they're fully fit whereas we're missing a good handful of our top players.

We can still do it though. Whatever we lack regionally usually clicks into place when the red shirt goes on.

We're not favourites but we have a chance. Not looking forward to the ref after the Ulster game, though.

Son of Mathonwy wrote:As usual, logic screams that we don't stand a chance. It's away. We can barely compete at the regional level. And they're fully fit whereas we're missing a good handful of our top players.

We can still do it though. Whatever we lack regionally usually clicks into place when the red shirt goes on.

We're not favourites but we have a chance. Not looking forward to the ref after the Ulster game, though.

We have a chance if the front five and their replacements can live with Ireland’s power. A difficult task but not impossible.

BO’D says he fears our back three - Williams, Adams and LRZ - because they can wreak havoc if Ireland kick badly.

I just wonder if Ireland might just have a hangover having reached the heights against the All Blacks in the autumn.

I won’t be despondent about our chances until the sixtieth minute when we will be losing by a margin we can’t pull back.

I think your best chance of a win (except Italy) is the wet and windy Friday night game against France! (with the roof open!)

If we can get to Sexton than we are in with a chance. If he gets an armchair ride we’re screwed.

There aren’t many weak areas in that Irish team and they will be full of confidence.

francoisfou wrote:I think your best chance of a win (except Italy) is the wet and windy Friday night game against France! (with the roof open!)

I’ve got tickets for the Italy game so I hope we do win that one.

francoisfou wrote:I think your best chance of a win (except Italy) is the wet and windy Friday night game against France! (with the roof open!)

Now that would be a turn up for the book!

From a neutral perspective - Betfair are offering almost 6/1 against Wales (6.8 decimal odds on the Exchange).
That is tempting - Ireland are favourites of course but it's not that certain IMO.

Team for Ireland:

Wales senior men’s team to face Ireland
(Saturday 5 February, KO 2.15pm. Live on ITV and S4C)

15. Liam Williams (Scarlets – 74 caps)
14. Johnny McNicholl (Scarlets – 8 caps)
13. Josh Adams (Cardiff Rugby – 35 caps)
12. Nick Tompkins (Saracens – 16 caps)
11. Louis Rees-Zammit (Gloucester Rugby – 12 caps)
10. Dan Biggar (Northampton Saints – 95 caps), captain
9. Tomos Williams (Cardiff Rugby – 29 caps)
1. Wyn Jones (Scarlets – 38 caps)
2. Ryan Elias (Scarlets – 23 caps)
3. Tomas Francis (Ospreys – 60 caps)
4. Will Rowlands (Dragons – 13 caps)
5. Adam Beard (Ospreys – 29 caps), vice-captain
6. Ellis Jenkins (Cardiff Rugby – 14 caps)
7. Taine Basham (Dragons – 7 caps)
8. Aaron Wainwright (Dragons – 34 caps)

Replacements
16. Dewi Lake (Ospreys – uncapped)
17. Gareth Thomas (Ospreys – 5 caps)
18. Dillon Lewis (Cardiff Rugby – 34 caps)
19. Seb Davies (Cardiff Rugby – 13 caps)
20. Ross Moriarty (Dragons – 49 caps)
21. Gareth Davies (Scarlets – 65 caps)
22. Callum Sheedy (Bristol Bears – 13 caps)
23. Owen Watkin (Ospreys – 26 caps)

Pretty much as expected. Moriarty only on the bench and Basham preferred.

I really don't understand why Dillon Lewis is on the bench instead of Leon Brown.

Graigwen wrote:I really don't understand why Dillon Lewis is on the bench instead of Leon Brown.

He had an excellent game against Leinster last weekend so that may have gone in his favour, I would agree that Brown has more potential, maybe he's carrying a niggle.

Hope Pivac's made the right call with Adams. I haven't seen enough of him at centre to judge, but if it works it means we have a lot of dangerous backs on simultaneously. Can't wait.

I'd start Moriarty, he's fit, what are we waiting for?

The nation will watch nervously at Lake's first lineout. It's a risk.

I'd have started Anscombe (or at least had him on the bench) but I can understand wanting Biggar's experience.

Anyway, considering the injuries, it's pretty strong. The odds are not on our side but I'm feeling stupidly optimistic.

Son of Mathonwy wrote:Hope Pivac's made the right call with Adams. I haven't seen enough of him at centre to judge, but if it works it means we have a lot of dangerous backs on simultaneously. Can't wait.

I'd start Moriarty, he's fit, what are we waiting for?

The nation will watch nervously at Lake's first lineout. It's a risk.

I'd have started Anscombe (or at least had him on the bench) but I can understand wanting Biggar's experience.

Anyway, considering the injuries, it's pretty strong. The odds are not on our side but I'm feeling stupidly optimistic.

I would agree with most of those points, except the optimism! We will have a lot of good players on the pitch, but not a well balanced team that has gelled together. While the BBC goes on about us missing through injury players with over 700 caps, that is not really the point. What we are missing is key players in key positions who help to glue our side together - Navidi is one example.

The only problem with Moriarty is he looks like a yellow card could come any moment.

The Adams in centre experiment had to be done at some time....

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I don't really get the Adams at centre thing. Is it lack of options at 13 or wanting to fit Williams/McNicholl in to the back 3? He is so good in the air it seems mad to lose that part of his game.

How long is North out for?

Graigwen wrote:

Son of Mathonwy wrote:Hope Pivac's made the right call with Adams. I haven't seen enough of him at centre to judge, but if it works it means we have a lot of dangerous backs on simultaneously. Can't wait.

I'd start Moriarty, he's fit, what are we waiting for?

The nation will watch nervously at Lake's first lineout. It's a risk.

I'd have started Anscombe (or at least had him on the bench) but I can understand wanting Biggar's experience.

Anyway, considering the injuries, it's pretty strong. The odds are not on our side but I'm feeling stupidly optimistic.

I would agree with most of those points, except the optimism! We will have a lot of good players on the pitch, but not a well balanced team that has gelled together. While the BBC goes on about us missing through injury players with over 700 caps, that is not really the point. What we are missing is key players in key positions who help to glue our side together - Navidi is one example.

The only problem with Moriarty is he looks like a yellow card could come any moment.

The Adams in centre experiment had to be done at some time....

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Yeah, I'm not worried about counting the caps we're missing, that's just a number. It's about the people. Basham's 7 works for me.

Can't justify the optimism (but it's there!). I hope we don't have our traditional poor first half . . . there really won't be any coming back if we ship some early tries.

Numbers wrote:

Graigwen wrote:I really don't understand why Dillon Lewis is on the bench instead of Leon Brown.

He had an excellent game against Leinster last weekend so that may have gone in his favour, I would agree that Brown has more potential, maybe he's carrying a niggle.

Lewis was our tight head at RWC 19 and did pretty well but then seemed to have lost his way. Let’s hope he’s up to scratch for the Irish because it’s going to be a tough time in the pack. He did well against Leinster including some good jackal turnovers.

Francis is usually able to stay on the pitch for over sixty minutes so Lewis’s fresh legs could help hold the fort as we hold onto our narrow three point lead!!!

Given our injuries, this is our best team pretty much. I’d have liked to see Anscombe in there somewhere and the back row is horribly imbalanced. But at least there’s no Seb Davies in the backrow and the introduction of Moriarty will be good in the second half.

Adams at 13 is going to be interesting. But we don’t have a stand out OC at the moment and with North injured then it makes for a very potent midfield and back three.

We start as under dogs but what the hell.

Sandydragon wrote:Given our injuries, this is our best team pretty much. I’d have liked to see Anscombe in there somewhere and the back row is horribly imbalanced. But at least there’s no Seb Davies in the backrow and the introduction of Moriarty will be good in the second half.

Adams at 13 is going to be interesting. But we don’t have a stand out OC at the moment and with North injured then it makes for a very potent midfield and back three.

We start as under dogs but what the hell.

Yep! Massive underdogs is a good place to start. I think the team, as unbalanced and novel in places as it is, can do a bit of damage to the Irish. The pack really have to up their game on Saturday.

Mikey Brown wrote:I don't really get the Adams at centre thing. Is it lack of options at 13 or wanting to fit Williams/McNicholl in to the back 3? He is so good in the air it seems mad to lose that part of his game.

How long is North out for?

McNicholl and Williams are both as good in the air and Rees-Zammitt has to play so there's the reason, North is due back on the field within the next couple of weeks I think.

It’s interesting that all the Guardian rugby writers have Wales in fifth place, mostly behind England or Scotland, in the final 6N table.

I quite like being in this position going into the championship because there’s no real expectation on us. I bet Pivac is using these reports to rev up the squad for tomorrow.

Numbers wrote:

Mikey Brown wrote:I don't really get the Adams at centre thing. Is it lack of options at 13 or wanting to fit Williams/McNicholl in to the back 3? He is so good in the air it seems mad to lose that part of his game.

How long is North out for?

McNicholl and Williams are both as good in the air and Rees-Zammitt has to play so there's the reason, North is due back on the field within the next couple of weeks I think.

The reason is that our midfield is devoid of creativity. It's worth a gamble in my view.

Hope we put up a better showing than the U20s.

Buggaluggs wrote:Hope we put up a better showing than the U20s.

Holy shit, they were dreadful.

Damn. The U20s have forced some unwelcome realism into my thoughts. It really has no business being there today.