Premiership Run in

[fivepointer]

Leicester P 20 Pts 80
Quins A
Bristol H
Newcastle A
Wasps H

Saracens P 19 Pts 68
Sale A
Exeter H
Worcester A
Northampton H
Gloucester A

Harlequins P 19 Pts 63
London Irish A
Leicester H
Northampton A
Gloucester H
Exeter A

Exeter P 20 Pts 57
Bath H
Saracens A
Bristol A
Harlequins H

Sale P 20 Pts 55
Saracens H
Newcastle H
Wasps A
Bristol H

Gloucester P 18 Pts 54 *Awaiting panel ruling on Worcester game but pts likely to increase by 4
Wasps H
Bristol A
Bath H
Harlequins A
Saracens H

Northampton P 19 Pts 53
Bristol H
Bath A
Harlequins H
Saracens A
Newcastle H

London Irish P 20 Pts 53
Harlequins H
Newcastle A
Wasps H
Bath A

Wasps P 19 Pts 48
Gloucester A
Worcester H
London Irish A
Sale H
Leicester A

Bristol P 19 Pts 36
Northampton A
Gloucester H
Leicester A
Exeter H
Sale A

Worcester P 19 Pts 30 * P 20 with Gloucester cancellation
Newcastle H
Wasps A
Saracens H
Bath H

Newcastle P 19 Pts 27
Worcester A
London Irish H
Sale A
Leicester H
Northampton A

Bath P 19 Pts 27
Exeter A
Northampton H
Gloucester A
London Irish H
Worcester A

[FKAS]

As a Tigers fan I'd say play best team for the two remaining home games but good rotated teams for the away games. We've qualified top four and should we get the two home wins we should be good for home semi. We can always up the squad strength to Newcastle if we need to on the penultimate game. Otherwise ensure everyone gets a week off and have a good go at Europe.

Let the rest scrap we want to be peak for the playoffs as I'd back us over a season but in a one off game there's definitely sides that could cause us an upset.

[Gloskarlos]

Can see Glos winning 2 or 3 and losing at least 2 of those last games. Might be enough, bonus points will be key.

[Puja]

Sale will be kicking themselves for only getting 3 points at Bath instead of the 5 that was definitely available. An extra 2 league points and I'd put them as favourites for 4th place - even with Saracens next up, you'd say they've got one of the friendlier run-ins.

Exeter can't really afford to lose another game and, with Saracens away and Bristol away (who are going to spoil someone's day sooner or later given their quality players starting to return to fitness), I don't think they have it.

Glaws are in the box-seat. They'll be in possession of 4th place once the Worcester result has trickled through, with one game in hand. The run-in's difficult, but hardly insuperable for them. The Wasps game is key and a must-win. Wasps are in a funny position - I'm fairly certain they're too far out to make a run on 4th place, but their run-in seems designed to ruin other people's chances.

Puja

[fivepointer]

Leicester & Saracens to remain 1 and 2.
Think Quins will hold on to 3rd but they have 3 away games and a pretty tough run in.
I reckon 4th will be between Sale and Gloucester. Sale have 3 home games, as do Glos who have a couple of tricky away ones.
Its just possible Northampton and London Irish will come into the frame but they need to put consecutive wins together.
That may be a problem for everyone in the final games.
Can Wasps move into top 8? They'll have to rely on those teams above dropping points i'd say as they have a difficult run in where they may struggle to get wins.
13th place to be a 3 way shoot out. Bath seem to have turned a bit of a corner so maybe they'll have just enough to move off the bottom. They are away to Worcester on the final day which may be a crucial fixture.
Bound to be a few twists over the coming weeks.

[Scrumhead]

As a Quins fan, I’d like to think we can hold on to third or at least stay in the top 4 but our run-in is among the toughest on paper.

Irish have lost their last two away games by decent margins but will probably see a game against Quins as the ideal opportunity to bounce back. A lot depends on whether the bye week has allowed us to re-integrate our England quartet and get back some of our injured players (Evans and David could be big additions for example), or does the opposite and gives Irish the opportunity to catch us cold. If we win, Top 4 looks odds on. Lose and it starts to look a bit precarious.

Results may also determine whether we see a Tigers first XV in Round 23 or whether they start resting players for the away games as FKAS mentioned. If Saracens pick up a BP win vs. Sale, they might feel like the gap has shrunk a bit too much.

Based upon remaining fixtures, I fancy it to be Tigers, Saracens, Quins, Gloucester, but it’s going to be hard fought.

[FKAS]

Results may also determine whether we see a Tigers first XV in Round 23 or whether they start resting players for the away games as FKAS mentioned.

Tigers have got back to back games with Clermont before they play Quins. Can't imagine those games will be anything less than brutal so an away game at Quins will probably see some rotation. Get some game time into squad players, Borthwick doesn't do weak or easy beat teams but I'd be surprised if we wheel out a near as first team for another game.

[Peej]

Wasps are going to finish 9th this season, they won't be spoiling anyone's tilt at the playoffs.

[Puja]

Wasps are going to finish 9th this season, they won't be spoiling anyone's tilt at the playoffs.

You were saying? They've just put a massive hole in Gloucester's and helped Exeter out significantly.

Puja

[Puja]

Back to the Prem this weekend and Exeter are looking in a stronger position than when we started this thread. Saints are their closest rivals and they've lost Biggar for 2 matches and Lawes to the end of the season.

Strange the Premiership still hasn't decided what to do yet about Gloucester vs Worcester.

Puja

[Mikey Brown]

Back to the Prem this weekend and Exeter are looking in a stronger position than when we started this thread. Saints are their closest rivals and they've lost Biggar for 2 matches and Lawes to the end of the season.

Strange the Premiership still hasn't decided what to do yet about Gloucester vs Worcester.

Puja

Yeah, they surely don’t want to leave it so late it is potentially the deciding factor in Gloucester qualifying, or has that ship sailed already?

[FKAS]

Back to the Prem this weekend and Exeter are looking in a stronger position than when we started this thread. Saints are their closest rivals and they've lost Biggar for 2 matches and Lawes to the end of the season.

Strange the Premiership still hasn't decided what to do yet about Gloucester vs Worcester.

Puja

Yeah, they surely don’t want to leave it so late it is potentially the deciding factor in Gloucester qualifying, or has that ship sailed already?

I dunno Chiefs aren't looking great and Glaws are likely to go legal if the Prem only award them 4 points.

As a Tigers fan I'd prefer Glaws to finish fourth if we stay top. Feel Glaws are on a similar journey to us with Skivington in charge but are a little further behind. Chiefs if they get everyone back and spark a bit of late form could be a real banana skin come the play offs.

[Scrumhead]

I’m pretty sure the points allocation for the Gloucester vs. Worcester game is being announced today.

This round is absolutely key to the play-off race.

I’m not sure on their injury situation but Exeter have the toughest game and if they don’t beat Saracens, I think 4th starts to look difficult as I’d fancy Gloucester and Saints to win. If Exeter can fashion a win, I’d agree that they look like a possible banana skin side in the play-offs.

Losing Biggar and Lawes is a big blow for Saints, but they should still have enough to beat Bath IMO.

It’s less of a ‘must-win’ for Quins this round but given that we only have our eggs in the one basket now, I think we’ll want to bounce-back after going out of the Champions Cup. After that, it’s Saints away which (as mentioned above) has just got a bit easier. A win or two and the play-offs are probably confirmed.

I’ll be curious to see what Tigers do. A top 2 place is pretty much guaranteed so I think they may well rest players where they can (they have a fair few injuries and suspensions to think about too) and prioritise their QF with Leinster. Equally, of their remaining fixtures, Quins at the Stoop is the toughest on paper. Maybe they go close to full strength for us and then rest vs. Bristol (H), Newcastle (A) and Wasps (H)?

[Puja]

I’m pretty sure the points allocation for the Gloucester vs. Worcester game is being announced today.

This round is absolutely key to the play-off race.

I’m not sure on their injury situation but Exeter have the toughest game and if they don’t beat Saracens, I think 4th starts to look difficult as I’d fancy Gloucester and Saints to win. If Exeter can fashion a win, I’d agree that they look like a possible banana skin side in the play-offs.

The problem for Gloucester is their run in. Assume Exeter lose to Saracens, Gloucester get 4 points against Wuss and 8 points against Bristol and Bath (hardly guaranteed). That puts them 5 points ahead of Exeter, but their remaining 2 games are Quins away and Saracens at home, which could conceivably see them get nil points. Conversely, Exeter have Bristol away which could make up that 5 points difference on its own and they'd back themselves to get more out of a final game of Quins at home than Glaws do against Saracens. Whether Glaws get that bonus point for the Worcester game could be absolutely crucial.

Jeez Quins have a tough run-in, don't they? Just noticed they crop up in every play-off contender's last few games!

I’ll be curious to see what Tigers do. A top 2 place is pretty much guaranteed so I think they may well rest players where they can (they have a fair few injuries and suspensions to think about too) and prioritise their QF with Leinster. Equally, of their remaining fixtures, Quins at the Stoop is the toughest on paper. Maybe they go close to full strength for us and then rest vs. Bristol (H), Newcastle (A) and Wasps (H)?

I think if we are going to rotate, it'll be for you or the Newcastle game - I think Borthwick wants the unbeaten home season. Mind, the joy of our system at the moment is that our rotated teams are still pretty dangerous as they're similar players fitting into the same system - the only major misses when we rest them are Ford, Genge, and Steward and I don't necessarily see us resting any of them against your lot.

Puja

[Raggs]

So wasps easily have a top 8 finish in their own hands. Top 4 is still doable but very much in the hands of others. Final week could very easily still see several sides in contention for top 4 of I've got it about right? Though equally it could ask be pretty much wrapped up by then too I think.

[Gloskarlos]

Worcester have altered their tune recently and are claiming the match was cancelled for Covid reasons rather than injury. This goes against their initial report completely, and flies in the face of the offer of players from Glos to get the fixture played. I believe the delay in the decision is more about the monetary compensation claims associated with the cancellation, as there can legitimately be match day losses apportioned to a cancelled fixture on injury grounds - not so for Covid. Dimes it seems is changing his story. If it ends up being 4-2 instead of 5-0 there will undoubtedly be uproar.

[Puja]

So wasps easily have a top 8 finish in their own hands. Top 4 is still doable but very much in the hands of others. Final week could very easily still see several sides in contention for top 4 of I've got it about right? Though equally it could ask be pretty much wrapped up by then too I think.

It's very, very plausible for Exeter, Saints, and Glaws to all be competing for 4th spot on the final day of the season and far from impossible for Sale to be in the mix as well. Probably the most competitive play-off run-in I've ever seen.

Found this statement from Diamond about the Glaws cancellation and the tribunal - apparently verdict due at 4pm today: https://warriors.co.uk/2022/04/20/press ... -20-04-22/

Puja

[Scrumhead]

I’m pretty sure the points allocation for the Gloucester vs. Worcester game is being announced today.

This round is absolutely key to the play-off race.

I’m not sure on their injury situation but Exeter have the toughest game and if they don’t beat Saracens, I think 4th starts to look difficult as I’d fancy Gloucester and Saints to win. If Exeter can fashion a win, I’d agree that they look like a possible banana skin side in the play-offs.

The problem for Gloucester is their run in. Assume Exeter lose to Saracens, Gloucester get 4 points against Wuss and 8 points against Bristol and Bath (hardly guaranteed). That puts them 5 points ahead of Exeter, but their remaining 2 games are Quins away and Saracens at home, which could conceivably see them get nil points. Conversely, Exeter have Bristol away which could make up that 5 points difference on its own and they'd back themselves to get more out of a final game of Quins at home than Glaws do against Saracens. Whether Glaws get that bonus point for the Worcester game could be absolutely crucial.

Jeez Quins have a tough run-in, don't they? Just noticed they crop up in every play-off contender's last few games!

I’ll be curious to see what Tigers do. A top 2 place is pretty much guaranteed so I think they may well rest players where they can (they have a fair few injuries and suspensions to think about too) and prioritise their QF with Leinster. Equally, of their remaining fixtures, Quins at the Stoop is the toughest on paper. Maybe they go close to full strength for us and then rest vs. Bristol (H), Newcastle (A) and Wasps (H)?

I think if we are going to rotate, it'll be for you or the Newcastle game - I think Borthwick wants the unbeaten home season. Mind, the joy of our system at the moment is that our rotated teams are still pretty dangerous as they're similar players fitting into the same system - the only major misses when we rest them are Ford, Genge, and Steward and I don't necessarily see us resting any of them against your lot.

Puja

Yeah. That’s what I thought, but actually I think it’s more likely to be Falcons. A) it’s the easier fixture and B) suspensions and injuries might limit what rotation can actually be done. By my reckoning, you’re potentially without Martin, Montoya and Kelly (injury) and Porter and Chessum (suspension).

Quins run in is tough, but there’s no reason for us not to go all out now and if we’re facing slightly weakened Tigers and Saints teams in this block of fixtures, winning either would probably seal at least 4th. I’d fancy us to beat Gloucester at home too, so I think we’ll get 3rd, making it a race for 4th for the chasing pack.

[Gloskarlos]

So wasps easily have a top 8 finish in their own hands. Top 4 is still doable but very much in the hands of others. Final week could very easily still see several sides in contention for top 4 of I've got it about right? Though equally it could ask be pretty much wrapped up by then too I think.

It's very, very plausible for Exeter, Saints, and Glaws to all be competing for 4th spot on the final day of the season and far from impossible for Sale to be in the mix as well. Probably the most competitive play-off run-in I've ever seen.

Found this statement from Diamond about the Glaws cancellation and the tribunal - apparently verdict due at 4pm today: https://warriors.co.uk/2022/04/20/press ... -20-04-22/

Puja

Compare with the statement released by Worcester just after the game was cancelled - I think this is why there are a few getting their knickers in a twist

https://warriors.co.uk/2022/03/25/club- ... cancelled/

[Puja]

So wasps easily have a top 8 finish in their own hands. Top 4 is still doable but very much in the hands of others. Final week could very easily still see several sides in contention for top 4 of I've got it about right? Though equally it could ask be pretty much wrapped up by then too I think.

It's very, very plausible for Exeter, Saints, and Glaws to all be competing for 4th spot on the final day of the season and far from impossible for Sale to be in the mix as well. Probably the most competitive play-off run-in I've ever seen.

Found this statement from Diamond about the Glaws cancellation and the tribunal - apparently verdict due at 4pm today: https://warriors.co.uk/2022/04/20/press ... -20-04-22/

Puja

Compare with the statement released by Worcester just after the game was cancelled - I think this is why there are a few getting their knickers in a twist

https://warriors.co.uk/2022/03/25/club- ... cancelled/

I suspect they'll get away with it though and I can kinda see their point. Yes, it's massively unfair on Glaws who need and probably would've got 5 points had the game been played, and yes the final front-row straw was an injury rather than COVID, but if they can show even two or three of their available front row were out because of COVID, it'll be argued that, if it wasn't for the plague, the game could've been played and I don't see how that can be argued against.

It's not fair because you needed the bonus point, but this is the way the COVID regs have been played all season.

Puja

[Gloskarlos]

I agree - I think it will be 4-2. What seems disingenuous is the change in tack from injury to Covid in their statements, and I guess the grey area that is - what percentage of players out have to be from Covid before that is the key reason for cancellation. It's not crystal clear to me. It also doesn't seem to be taking into account that healthy front row players were offered to Worcester to keep the game on.

[Puja]

I agree - I think it will be 4-2. What seems disingenuous is the change in tack from injury to Covid in their statements, and I guess the grey area that is - what percentage of players out have to be from Covid before that is the key reason for cancellation. It's not crystal clear to me. It also doesn't seem to be taking into account that healthy front row players were offered to Worcester to keep the game on.

I don't know it has to be a percentage of players; I think it just has to be that the game was not playable because of COVID. In theory, just one front rower would do it, although I suspect in practice there would be questions asked if you were that tight.

In googling, I've just found the actual rulebook: https://d2cx26qpfwuhvu.cloudfront.net/p ... _Final.pdf

It's helpfully vague and open to interpretation, but the key passages appear to be on page 50:

2. Where there is no recommendation or requirement from any governmental authority that a Match should not take place but either of:
a. the PGB Medical Advisory Group; or
b. the PGB Testing Oversight Group,
consider that the match taking place presents a risk to the health of players, Match Officials or staff of either Club because of the risk of infection of Covid-19, that group may refer the matter to the PGB

...

5. The Clubs recognize that assessing the risk to the health of individuals may be a subjective matter and that it is reasonable for all stakeholders to take a conservative approach. Any determination will be made on a case by case basis and will not be determined by any specific number of positive Covid-19 tests.

That reading to me seems to swing things back towards Gloucester as Wuss would have to prove they were worried about infections spreading. However, a further read leads me to this section:

3.4 Replacements
...
(b) In the interests of safety each team playing in the Premiership must have at least six (6) fit and able Players in the squad who can play at hooker, tight head prop and loose head prop who are suitably trained and experienced to ensure that on the first occasion that a replacement in any front row position is required (whether due to injury or consequent to a Player(s) being temporarily suspended or ordered off) the team can continue to play
safely with contested scrums. In the event that a Club is unable to field those six players, the Match shall be cancelled. PRL shall determine whether this is the direct result of Covid-19 and:

(i) if it is as a direct result of Covid-19, then Schedule 5 [4 points and 2 points - Puja] shall apply; or
(ii) if it not as a direct result of Covid-19, then Regulation 3.4(c) and Regulation 4.4(j) [5 points and 0 points - Puja] shall apply.

That reads like it's in Worcester's hands, as it specifically says a lack of 6 front row directly due to COVID-19 (which could just be one player) means Schedule 5 and a 4/2 split. Glaws may argue that they offered other front row, but Worcester can reasonably say that adopting an unknown front row on the day of the match posed a safety risk.

All things told, the rules are unclear and help no-one, it'll be a subjective decision, and somebody's going to end up very annoyed at the end of the day. Let's hope it's Diamond, just on general principles.

Puja

[Gloskarlos]

Yep - thanks for digging that out and posting. I had read it but the paraphrasing above has the key points identified. Over to the panel.....

[FKAS]

I’m pretty sure the points allocation for the Gloucester vs. Worcester game is being announced today.

This round is absolutely key to the play-off race.

I’m not sure on their injury situation but Exeter have the toughest game and if they don’t beat Saracens, I think 4th starts to look difficult as I’d fancy Gloucester and Saints to win. If Exeter can fashion a win, I’d agree that they look like a possible banana skin side in the play-offs.

The problem for Gloucester is their run in. Assume Exeter lose to Saracens, Gloucester get 4 points against Wuss and 8 points against Bristol and Bath (hardly guaranteed). That puts them 5 points ahead of Exeter, but their remaining 2 games are Quins away and Saracens at home, which could conceivably see them get nil points. Conversely, Exeter have Bristol away which could make up that 5 points difference on its own and they'd back themselves to get more out of a final game of Quins at home than Glaws do against Saracens. Whether Glaws get that bonus point for the Worcester game could be absolutely crucial.

Jeez Quins have a tough run-in, don't they? Just noticed they crop up in every play-off contender's last few games!

I’ll be curious to see what Tigers do. A top 2 place is pretty much guaranteed so I think they may well rest players where they can (they have a fair few injuries and suspensions to think about too) and prioritise their QF with Leinster. Equally, of their remaining fixtures, Quins at the Stoop is the toughest on paper. Maybe they go close to full strength for us and then rest vs. Bristol (H), Newcastle (A) and Wasps (H)?

I think if we are going to rotate, it'll be for you or the Newcastle game - I think Borthwick wants the unbeaten home season. Mind, the joy of our system at the moment is that our rotated teams are still pretty dangerous as they're similar players fitting into the same system - the only major misses when we rest them are Ford, Genge, and Steward and I don't necessarily see us resting any of them against your lot.

Puja

Yeah. That’s what I thought, but actually I think it’s more likely to be Falcons. A) it’s the easier fixture and B) suspensions and injuries might limit what rotation can actually be done. By my reckoning, you’re potentially without Martin, Montoya and Kelly (injury) and Porter and Chessum (suspension).

Quins run in is tough, but there’s no reason for us not to go all out now and if we’re facing slightly weakened Tigers and Saints teams in this block of fixtures, winning either would probably seal at least 4th. I’d fancy us to beat Gloucester at home too, so I think we’ll get 3rd, making it a race for 4th for the chasing pack.

I'd like to see some rotation for the Quins game. There's no need to take it to seriously and Quins losing to a Tigers rotated side at home would be a psychological blow whilst beating a rotated Tigers team at home wouldn't really boost morale like beating a full Tigers team would.

Whitcombe, Dolly, Cole
Snyman, Wells
Liebenburg, Weise, Reffell
Youngs, Burns
Scott, Moroni
Saumaki, Steward, Ashton

Clare, Genge, Heyes, Snyman, Ilione, JVP, Ford, Potter

Would be a good mix.

[fivepointer]

BREAKING: Gloucester have been awarded a 20-0, 5 point victory over Worcester after the Warriors forfeited their Premiership game last month.

That bumps Gloucester into fifth on 60 points.