RugbyRebels

Saracens: 67pts
Saints A
Irish H
Bath A

Sale: 56
Bristol A
Gloucester A
Newcastle H

Leicester: 53
Exeter H
Bye
Quins H

London Irish: 51
Bye
Saracens A
Exeter H

Northampton: 48
Saracens H
Newcastle A
Bye

Exeter: 43
Leicester A
Bristol H
(La Rochelle A)
Irish A

Bristol: 41
Sale H
Exeter A
Gloucester H

Harlequins: 41
Newcastle H
Bath H
Leicester A

Gloucester: 40
Bath H
Sale H
Bristol A

Bath: 32
Gloucester A
Quins A
Saracens H

Newcastle: 31
Quins H
Saints A
Sale A

Some interesting permutations there. On the initial face of the table, it appears that the fight for the play-offs is between Leicester, Irish and Saints, but all three of those still have a bye-week left to take. Will be useful in keeping the team fresh, but means all the teams below them could conceivably be 5 points closer once they've played their game in hand.

Irish have clearly the worst run-in with their first two weekends a bye and Saracens away. It's entirely plausible that they go into the last weekend still on 51 points. That means that, while the pundits are counting Bristol, Quins, and Glaws out of it, they could go into the final weekend right in the hunt. Quins especially - they've got the bottom two clubs at home for their next two games and, if results really go their way, could go into the final weekend in 5th/6th and needing just to get a better result than Irish to sneak into the playoffs.

Spare a thought for Northampton, who will have to set a target and then sit out the final day, hoping results go their way.

Exeter are intriguing, as they definitely have their fate in their own hands. Win all three handsomely and they're guaranteed 4th. Lose all three by a distance and they're even vulnerable to coming 9th and dropping out of the ERC next year.

At the very top, Saracens are pretty much safe - one win will do them and they'll probably do Bath a favour and play the second string in the last game. Sale are relatively safe in 2nd, as they should get enough points from their game in hand to pull away from Leicester and have enough to dispatch Falcons on the last day. Leicester technically need 6 more points from their last two games, but realistically one win will likely be enough, and both games being at home means I'm relatively confident.

At the bottom, both Newcastle and Bath can technically qualify for the ERC, but are more likely to have to try and spoil other people's days. Bath have the best chance - playing the two teams directly above them and then probably Saracens 2nd XV at home on the last day.

Puja

Wow if results go a certain way it could be a real bun fight on the final weekend.

I hope Tigers do the business Vs Chiefs this weekend and limit the chance for potential stress. Grab a TBP there and things start looking pretty decent heading into the bye week, particularly if Sale implode again.

Big games this weekend. Bristol v Sale, Saints v Saracens and Tigers v Exeter. 3 home wins would make things look very interesting.

After a dire start to the season Bristol have done very well and could be rewarded with a ERC place for next season.

Bad bye weekend for Irish - the teams above and below them all got 5 points and Saracens 1st XV got to take the weekend off so they'll be fresh to play them at the StoneX.

Table separated into two halves now - Northampton, Irish, Quins all chasing 4th place and the opportunity to be murdered by Saracens, and Exeter, Bristol defending the last two ERC spots from Gloucester and {checks notes} Bath?!

Puja

Puja, you are assuming that Sarries aren't going to send the second team out again or at least another heavily rotated side. They are likely to be top and if under threat can go hard and murder Bath on the last day of the season. They are still fighting on two front but have had a few knocks and injuries.

FKAS wrote: ↑Sun Apr 16, 2023 11:11 pm Puja, you are assuming that Sarries aren't going to send the second team out again or at least another heavily rotated side. They are likely to be top and if under threat can go hard and murder Bath on the last day of the season. They are still fighting on two front but have had a few knocks and injuries.

I was working on the assumption that they'll probably send the 1sts out for the home game and then take another weekend off against Bath. Wouldn't've thought they'd want to have too many weeks without a game.

Puja

Puja wrote: ↑Sun Apr 16, 2023 11:37 pm

FKAS wrote: ↑Sun Apr 16, 2023 11:11 pm Puja, you are assuming that Sarries aren't going to send the second team out again or at least another heavily rotated side. They are likely to be top and if under threat can go hard and murder Bath on the last day of the season. They are still fighting on two front but have had a few knocks and injuries.

I was working on the assumption that they'll probably send the 1sts out for the home game and then take another weekend off against Bath. Wouldn't've thought they'd want to have too many weeks without a game.

Puja

That way round is likely to be well received by the LI fans I'm sure.

Yeah, I'd definitely feel a bit stitched up if they go much stronger next week.

But what can you do. It's been one of those seasons where we shot ourselves in the foot, losing some absolute sickeners at the death before this decent run (7 games have finished within a 7 point margin - We lost every one of them). We've beaten a fully loaded Sarries team already this season though. Just need to do it again, and it is at least in our hands.

Tough on Irish now.
You'd expect Saints to win at Newcastle so Irish have to get something from the Saracens game.

fivepointer wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:45 am Tough on Irish now.
You'd expect Saints to win at Newcastle so Irish have to get something from the Saracens game.

be interesting to see what side Sarries put out. Though I'd think they'd prefer Saints get into the play offs than LI.

Banquo wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 8:40 am

fivepointer wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 7:45 am Tough on Irish now.
You'd expect Saints to win at Newcastle so Irish have to get something from the Saracens game.

be interesting to see what side Sarries put out. Though I'd think they'd prefer Saints get into the play offs than LI.

I happened to see this page while looking for another stat. You'd think Saints were winning the thing based on this.

https://www.premiershiprugby.com/gallag ... eam-stats/

Interesting how having the most tackles in the league ties in with their atrocious defence.

Most tackles, is generally a sign that you've played without the ball a fair bit during the season or been under pressure defensively. Rather than a sign necessarily of a good defence.

Tackle completion stats, points conceded or dominant tackle % would be a better measure of a good defence

Margin_Walker wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 11:12 am Most tackles, is generally a sign that you've played without the ball a fair bit during the season or been under pressure defensively. Rather than a sign necessarily of a good defence.

Tackle completion stats, points conceded or dominant tackle % would be a better measure of a good defence

Yeah, it was as much that it's a curious stat to have there (in isolation) to represent the top defensive team. They're 2nd on carries as well though, which along with the others would suggest they at least spend a fair bit of time in possession.

Yeah, I always find it a stat there that's potentially a bit misleading. No doubt Saints are an entertaining team to watch both ends of the pitch though.

One thing the PRL could always do a bit better is increase the content they have on the site stats wise with some meaningful stuff. It's a bit of an afterthought at the moment and would be good to give the average punter access to something a little more illuminating.

Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 11:17 am

Margin_Walker wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 11:12 am Most tackles, is generally a sign that you've played without the ball a fair bit during the season or been under pressure defensively. Rather than a sign necessarily of a good defence.

Tackle completion stats, points conceded or dominant tackle % would be a better measure of a good defence

Yeah, it was as much that it's a curious stat to have there (in isolation) to represent the top defensive team. They're 2nd on carries as well though, which along with the others would suggest they at least spend a fair bit of time in possession.

Third lowest on turnovers won though, which is interesting. I'd imagine they're probably pretty high on turnovers conceded though.

Puja

Puja wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 11:28 am

Mikey Brown wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 11:17 am

Margin_Walker wrote: ↑Mon Apr 17, 2023 11:12 am Most tackles, is generally a sign that you've played without the ball a fair bit during the season or been under pressure defensively. Rather than a sign necessarily of a good defence.

Tackle completion stats, points conceded or dominant tackle % would be a better measure of a good defence

Yeah, it was as much that it's a curious stat to have there (in isolation) to represent the top defensive team. They're 2nd on carries as well though, which along with the others would suggest they at least spend a fair bit of time in possession.

Third lowest on turnovers won though, which is interesting. I'd imagine they're probably pretty high on turnovers conceded though.

Puja

Third highest on penalties conceded (after Chiefs and Falcons). Not a good combination with winning so few turnovers.

Well, this turned into a damp squib just one game into the penultimate round. The top 4 is pretty much guaranteed in the order it's in (barring some unusual results), bottom spot is confirmed even though it doesn't matter, and the only slight interest is who's going to sneak the last three European places.

Puja

Battle for 8th place is the only issue to be resolved now.
Bristol and Bath are on 42 pts, Glos on 41.
Bath are at home to Saracens in the final game. Bristol take on Glos at AG. Bath might be helped out if Saracens rest players ahead of the SF.

fivepointer wrote: ↑Mon Apr 24, 2023 7:29 am Battle for 8th place is the only issue to be resolved now.
Bristol and Bath are on 42 pts, Glos on 41.
Bath are at home to Saracens in the final game. Bristol take on Glos at AG. Bath might be helped out if Saracens rest players ahead of the SF.

Rumors circulating that Lam needs 8th to save his job, with failure to get it triggering a break clause in his contract. Personally I don't think the side are capable of playing in the Euro Cup next year given the current (assumed) squad we'll have.

jimKRFC wrote: ↑Mon Apr 24, 2023 1:18 pm

fivepointer wrote: ↑Mon Apr 24, 2023 7:29 am Battle for 8th place is the only issue to be resolved now.
Bristol and Bath are on 42 pts, Glos on 41.
Bath are at home to Saracens in the final game. Bristol take on Glos at AG. Bath might be helped out if Saracens rest players ahead of the SF.

Rumors circulating that Lam needs 8th to save his job, with failure to get it triggering a break clause in his contract. Personally I don't think the side are capable of playing in the Euro Cup next year given the current (assumed) squad we'll have.

You'd have to say that's not unfair. With the money that's available to them, 8th is the minimum they should expect and he's already fallen below it once already.

Mind, it's not too hard a target. All they need to do is beat Gloucester by 8 more than Bath beat Saracens (!) and that shouldn't be outside of their capabilities.

Puja

Least exciting final day ever. The only positions that can change are 5th/6th/7th and 7th/8th/9th/10th (and some of those are only mathematical possibilities, rather than likely possibilities). The most interesting possible result is Quins getting a duffing from Leicester, combined with Bath and Bristol getting 5 point wins, which would see Quins out of Europe next season. And even that's stretching the definition of the word "interesting".

Puja

Stretching the plausible as well there considering some of the players Tigers are resting.