RugbyRebels

Posted: **Sat Aug 19, 2023 5:24 pm**

Any ideas?

Posted: **Sat Aug 19, 2023 7:59 pm**

19 forwards

9 front row

I can’t remember Tomas Francis ever getting the sort of doing that Assiratti did today. Personally I wouldn’t take Dillon Lewis, but I think Gatland takes Francis, Thomas and Lewis as tight heads, Thomas might be first choice.
Hookers - he will take Lake, Elias and Dee if they are all fit. Parry if one of them won’t make it. He might pick himself after that.
Loose head, Domachowski, Smith and Thomas. Mathias (like K Williams and T Williams) just hasn’t had any game time

4 second rows

Rowlands and Jenkins to start, subject to fitness. I think he’ll take Beard and the rest is up for grabs. Ben Carter looked good off the bench a couple of weeks ago, that might get him 4th spot, although he looked underpowered today.

Back row, 8 is easiest, Faletau and Wainwright although Wainwright went backwards today. Morgan to captain from 7, and I think that Gatland likes the look of Basham. 6 is a real problem. Lydiate might be the man to stop teams at source, although he had no chance today. My gut feeling is that he will pick Plumtree over Tshiunza, again subject to Plumtree’s fitness.

14 backs

3 scrum halves Williams, Davies, Hardy

310s Biggar and Costelow, and Anscombe if there is any chance he will be fit

Centres - I really don’t know, North is the only one inked in. I’d go Williams, (J) and Roberts. Gatland May pick Llewelyn over Tompkins.

Back 3, L Williams, LRZ and Adams. Probably Rio Dyer, just. The yellow card today and missed interception won’t have helped though. Halfpenny is in the mix and Gatland obviously likes Mason Grady, despite his contribution to the fourth try today.

Probably a good first 23 there somewhere

Posted: **Sat Aug 19, 2023 8:00 pm**

The selections that we've seen suggest that whatever he claims, Gatland had a very good idea what his squad was last month. It stands to reason that the spine will be the tried and trusted, players who he's largely kept out of the firing line, who he isn't worried about lacking recent game-time so long as they're training well.

Very few "possibles" have done enough IMO.

Posted: **Sat Aug 19, 2023 8:40 pm**

Wallpaperman wrote: ↑Sat Aug 19, 2023 7:59 pm 19 forwards

9 front row

I can’t remember Tomas Francis ever getting the sort of doing that Assiratti did today. Personally I wouldn’t take Dillon Lewis, but I think Gatland takes Francis, Thomas and Lewis as tight heads, Thomas might be first choice.
Hookers - he will take Lake, Elias and Dee if they are all fit. Parry if one of them won’t make it. He might pick himself after that.
Loose head, Domachowski, Smith and Thomas. Mathias (like K Williams and T Williams) just hasn’t had any game time

4 second rows

Rowlands and Jenkins to start, subject to fitness. I think he’ll take Beard and the rest is up for grabs. Ben Carter looked good off the bench a couple of weeks ago, that might get him 4th spot, although he looked underpowered today.

Back row, 8 is easiest, Faletau and Wainwright although Wainwright went backwards today. Morgan to captain from 7, and I think that Gatland likes the look of Basham. 6 is a real problem. Lydiate might be the man to stop teams at source, although he had no chance today. My gut feeling is that he will pick Plumtree over Tshiunza, again subject to Plumtree’s fitness.

14 backs

3 scrum halves Williams, Davies, Hardy

310s Biggar and Costelow, and Anscombe if there is any chance he will be fit

Centres - I really don’t know, North is the only one inked in. I’d go Williams, (J) and Roberts. Gatland May pick Llewelyn over Tompkins.

Back 3, L Williams, LRZ and Adams. Probably Rio Dyer, just. The yellow card today and missed interception won’t have helped though. Halfpenny is in the mix and Gatland obviously likes Mason Grady, despite his contribution to the fourth try today.

Probably a good first 23 there somewhere

Agree on that lot.

In terms of a 23, I think it might look a bit like this:

Thomas
Lake
Francis
Rowlands
Beard
Lydiate
Morgan
Faletau
Williams
Biggar
Dyer
J Williams
North
LRZ
L Williams

Domachowski, Elias, Thomas, Jenkins, Basham, Davies, probably Costelow but wouldn’t bet the farm on it, Grady.

I’d rather he dropped Beard but I don’t think he will for the big games. I suspect he would prefer Anscombe in there but since he hasn’t played it’s hard to put him in the 23 above Costelow or Owen Williams.

Gatland will want a physical and controlled game against Fiji, so forget any creativity. Percentage plays and rolling mauls will be top priority.

Posted: **Sun Aug 20, 2023 5:14 pm**

Sandy - isn’t Thomas tight head?

Posted: **Sun Aug 20, 2023 5:17 pm**

While Francis isn’t all that mobile around the field, he does have the advantage of locking the scrum, even against some heavyweight packs. I’d think he’s Gatland’s first choice.

Posted: **Sun Aug 20, 2023 5:21 pm**

normanski wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 5:14 pm Sandy - isn’t Thomas tight head?

Gareth Thomas

Posted: **Sun Aug 20, 2023 9:05 pm**

According to the Fail, Wales' likely 33-man squad is: Liam Williams, Leigh Halfpenny, Louis Rees-Zammit, Josh Adams, George North, Mason Grady, Johnny Williams, Nick Tompkins, Dan Biggar, Gareth Anscombe, Sam Costelow, Tomos Williams, Gareth Davies, Kieran Hardy, Nicky Smith, Gareth Thomas, Corey Domachowski; Tomas Francis, Henry Thomas, Dillon Lewis, Elliot Dee, Ryan Elias, Dewi Lake/Sam Parry, Will Rowlands, Dafydd Jenkins, Adam Beard, Ben Carter, Dan Lydiate, Christ Tshiunza, Jac Morgan, Taine Basham, Aaron Wainwright, Taulupe Faletau

Given that the actual match day squads for the warm ups were close to if not exactly the same as the Fail's 'likely' squad predictions, this might not be too far off what'll be announced tomorrow.

Posted: **Sun Aug 20, 2023 9:49 pm**

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 5:21 pm
normanski wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 5:14 pm Sandy - isn’t Thomas tight head?
Gareth Thomas

Oops!

Posted: **Mon Aug 21, 2023 1:11 am**

pompey-zebra wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 9:05 pm According to the Fail, Wales' likely 33-man squad is: Liam Williams, Leigh Halfpenny, Louis Rees-Zammit, Josh Adams, George North, Mason Grady, Johnny Williams, Nick Tompkins, Dan Biggar, Gareth Anscombe, Sam Costelow, Tomos Williams, Gareth Davies, Kieran Hardy, Nicky Smith, Gareth Thomas, Corey Domachowski; Tomas Francis, Henry Thomas, Dillon Lewis, Elliot Dee, Ryan Elias, Dewi Lake/Sam Parry, Will Rowlands, Dafydd Jenkins, Adam Beard, Ben Carter, Dan Lydiate, Christ Tshiunza, Jac Morgan, Taine Basham, Aaron Wainwright, Taulupe Faletau

Given that the actual match day squads for the warm ups were close to if not exactly the same as the Fail's 'likely' squad predictions, this might not be too far off what'll be announced tomorrow.

Since the fail has, on previous evidence, an inside man in the WRU, there's probably not much point in speculating further.

Assuming that is the squad it's not too surprising given what we've seen on the rugby pitch and in Gatland's selection preferences to date.

It's not too different from what I would pick, except I'd take Davies and Reffell instead of Carter and Tshiunza. (I'd like to find space for Keiran Williams since (despite what WOL might say) Johnny was a bit of a liability. In an ideal world we'd have seen more of both of them.)

One final question - what was the point in having Cai Evans in the squad if he could perform very well on his only chance and still not get picked? I guess it was between him and Halfpenny, and Gatland didn't have the guts to go for the form player over the aging legend. Tough call but I'm not clear what else Evans could have done.

Posted: **Mon Aug 21, 2023 6:53 am**

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 1:11 am
pompey-zebra wrote: ↑Sun Aug 20, 2023 9:05 pm According to the Fail, Wales' likely 33-man squad is: Liam Williams, Leigh Halfpenny, Louis Rees-Zammit, Josh Adams, George North, Mason Grady, Johnny Williams, Nick Tompkins, Dan Biggar, Gareth Anscombe, Sam Costelow, Tomos Williams, Gareth Davies, Kieran Hardy, Nicky Smith, Gareth Thomas, Corey Domachowski; Tomas Francis, Henry Thomas, Dillon Lewis, Elliot Dee, Ryan Elias, Dewi Lake/Sam Parry, Will Rowlands, Dafydd Jenkins, Adam Beard, Ben Carter, Dan Lydiate, Christ Tshiunza, Jac Morgan, Taine Basham, Aaron Wainwright, Taulupe Faletau

Given that the actual match day squads for the warm ups were close to if not exactly the same as the Fail's 'likely' squad predictions, this might not be too far off what'll be announced tomorrow.
Since the fail has, on previous evidence, an inside man in the WRU, there's probably not much point in speculating further.

Assuming that is the squad it's not too surprising given what we've seen on the rugby pitch and in Gatland's selection preferences to date.

It's not too different from what I would pick, except I'd take Davies and Reffell instead of Carter and Tshiunza. (I'd like to find space for Keiran Williams since (despite what WOL might say) Johnny was a bit of a liability. In an ideal world we'd have seen more of both of them.)

One final question - what was the point in having Cai Evans in the squad if he could perform very well on his only chance and still not get picked? I guess it was between him and Halfpenny, and Gatland didn't have the guts to go for the form player over the aging legend. Tough call but I'm not clear what else Evans could have done.

With Cai Evans, before the game I suspect he wasn't seen as a front runner for the squad, given that Liam Williams was down to start. It was a bonus then that he performed so strongly in, lets face it, difficult circumstances. What it probably had done though, is pushed him.up the pecking order as cover, should we get injuries to a 10 or one of the back three.

Posted: **Mon Aug 21, 2023 10:41 am**

It will seem almost an anticlimax when the squad is formally announced. I think the Fail squad is pretty much what Gatland wants. The biggest scope for surprise is if there have been injury developments.

.

Posted: **Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:10 pm**

Reffel in!

Posted: **Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:11 pm**

FORWARDS (19)

Taine Basham – Talywain | Dragons (13 caps)
Adam Beard – Birchgrove | Ospreys (47 caps) (2019 RWC)
Elliot Dee – Newbridge | Dragons | (43 caps) (2019 RWC)
Corey Domachowski – Gilfach Goch | Cardiff Rugby (2 caps)
Ryan Elias – Carmarthen Athletic | Scarlets (34 caps) (2019 RWC)
Taulupe Faletau – RTB Ebbw Vale | Cardiff Rugby | (100 caps) (2011 RWC)
Tomas Francis – Malton & Norton | Provence | (72 caps) (2015 & 2019 RWC)
Dafydd Jenkins – Porthcawl | Exeter Chiefs (7 caps)
Dewi Lake – Valley Ravens | Ospreys (9 caps)
Dillon Lewis – Beddau | Harlequins (51 caps) (2019 RWC)
Dan Lydiate – Rhayader | Dragons (71 caps) (2011 & 2015 RWC)
Jac Morgan – Cwmtwrch | Ospreys (11 caps)
Tommy Reffell – Pencoed | Leicester Tigers (10 caps)
Will Rowlands – Dragons (25 caps)
Nicky Smith – Waunarlwydd | Ospreys (44 caps) (2019 RWC)
Gareth Thomas – Newcastle Emlyn | Ospreys (22 caps)
Henry Thomas – Bath minis & juniors | Montpellier (2 caps)
Christ Tshiunza – Rhiwbina Squirrels | Exeter Chiefs (7 caps)
Aaron Wainwright – Whiteheads | Dragons (39 caps) (2019 RWC)

Posted: **Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:12 pm**

BACKS (14)
Josh Adams – Hendy | Cardiff Rugby (50 Caps) (2019 RWC)
Gareth Anscombe – Ponsonby | Tokyo Suntory Sungoliath (35 caps) (2015 RWC)
Dan Biggar – Gorseinon | Toulon (109 Caps) (2015 & 2019 RWC)
Sam Costelow – Pencoed | Scarlets (4 caps)
Gareth Davies – Newcastle Emlyn | Scarlets (69 Caps) (2015 & 2019 RWC)
Rio Dyer – Risca | Dragons (9 caps)
Mason Grady – Barry | Cardiff Rugby (4 caps)
Leigh Halfpenny – Gorseinon | unattached (100 Caps) (2011 & 2019 RWC)
George North – Llangefni | Ospreys (114 Caps) (2011, 2015 & 2019 RWC)
Louis Rees-Zammit – Rumney | Gloucester Rugby (27 caps)
Nick Tompkins – Old Elthamians | Saracens (28 caps)
Johnny Williams – Rams | Scarlets (6 caps)
Liam Williams – Waunarlwydd | Penlan | Kubota Spears (85 Caps) (2015 & 2019 RWC)
Tomos Williams – Treorchy | Cardiff Rugby (48 Caps) (2019 RWC)

Posted: **Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:19 pm**

So no Ben Carter. Just Rowlands, Jenkins and Beard as 2nd row, with Tshiunza as extra cover I suppose.

In tournamenmts, back rows do seem to suffer more attrition.
.

Posted: **Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:23 pm**

Graigwen wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:19 pm So no Ben Carter. Just Rowlands, Jenkins and Beard as 2nd row, with Tshiunza as extra cover I suppose.

In tournamenmts, back rows do seem to suffer more attrition.
.

No Plumtree either. Injured?

Posted: **Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:35 pm**

No Hardy, either, so just 2 scrum halves

Posted: **Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:45 pm**

In some order:

Looseheads: G Thomas, Domachowski, Nicky Smith
Hookers: Elias, Dee, Lake
Tightheads: H Thomas, Francis, Lewis
Second Rows: Beard, Rowlands, Jenkins
Hybrids: Tshiunza
Backrows: Reffell, Morgan, Lydiate, Wainwright, Faletau, Basham
Scrumhalfs: Williams, Davies
10s: Biggar, Anscombe, Costelow
12s: Tompkins, J Williams
13s: North, Grady
Wings: Dyer, Adams, LRZ
15s: L Williams, Halfpenny

Posted: **Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:47 pm**

I think the backs pretty much pick themselves, I can't grumble, it looks like the strongest 33 we have available currently.

Posted: **Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:47 pm**

pompey-zebra wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:35 pm No Hardy, either, so just 2 scrum halves

Those who didn’t make the cut are probably standing by for the call after the Fiji game - the hardest and most attritional game of the group stage.

Posted: **Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:51 pm**

normanski wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:47 pm
pompey-zebra wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:35 pm No Hardy, either, so just 2 scrum halves
Those who didn’t make the cut are probably standing by for the call after the Fiji game - the hardest and most attritional game of the group stage.

Yeah, and at least the RWC's in France so no need to fly replacements halfway round the world if anyone gets injured

Posted: **Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:58 pm**

pompey-zebra wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:35 pm No Hardy, either, so just 2 scrum halves

Costelow back up 9 apparently

Posted: **Mon Aug 21, 2023 2:16 pm**

Numbers wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2023 12:45 pm In some order:

Looseheads: G Thomas, Domachowski, Nicky Smith
Hookers: Elias, Dee, Lake
Tightheads: H Thomas, Francis, Lewis
Second Rows: Beard, Rowlands, Jenkins
Hybrids: Tshiunza
Backrows: Reffell, Morgan, Lydiate, Wainwright, Faletau, Basham
Scrumhalfs: Williams, Davies
10s: Biggar, Anscombe, Costelow
12s: Tompkins, J Williams
13s: North, Grady
Wings: Dyer, Adams, LRZ
15s: L Williams, Halfpenny

Sensible enough, since it's just in France and any later replacements have trained through the summer with the squad.

I guess having a third winger makes sense even if Dyer was pretty unconvincing.
The 12s have been quite unconvincing too but Tompkins looks like the only safe pair of hands.
I'd take Davies over Tshiunza.
The Fail rumour 33 did raise an interesting point by leaving Reffell out. Is it a luxury to have him there when Morgan is presumably going to start all the big games and we have Basham too?

We can put together a pretty strong team now but there are some key players where the replacement is a big step down or is currently injured ie
Dee
Rowlands
Biggar
North
LRZ and Adams

Posted: **Mon Aug 21, 2023 2:37 pm**

So if I was going to go all Lions and say Saturday team v Dirt trackers from that lot I'd go

for Fiji
L Williams, Adams, North, J Williams, LRZ, Biggar, T Williams
Domachowski, Elias, Francis, Rowlands, Jenkins, Lydiate, Morgan, Faleatau

B: Lake, Smith, H Thomas, Tshiunza, Wainwright, Davies, Anscombe, Grady

I think the backline picks itself given lack of game time for Anscombe. I think He will go with Anscombe and Grady on the Bench as between them they cover all the back line except 9
I think Gatland likes a hefty front 5, so Ive gone with that front 3 although Francis is very lucky, plus Jenkins over Beard for some dynamism, Back row - I think he will start Lydiate against Fiji and see where he goes from there.

for Portugal
Halfpenny, Dyer, Grady, Tompkins, Adams, Costelow, Davies
G Thomas, Dee, Lewis, Beard, Tshiunza, Basham, Reffel, Wainwright

B: Lake, Smith, Thomas, Jenkins, T Williams, Anscombe, North

Best performers from those 2 for the Aus match.

RugbyRebels

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