RugbyRebels

OK, so if we beat the Aussies, who really don’t look good at the moment, then it’s clear we can. Any win against Georgia sees us through as Champions.

But what if we don’t?

We currently have 10 points, Fiji and Aussie are both on 6.

I’ll assume both teams will score a BP against Portugal, and I think Fiji will get a BP against Georgia.

In that case, Fiji will end up with 16 points.

Scenario 1 - we lose to Australia and they get the maximum 5 points, we get nothing. That would put Australia on 16 points and we couldn’t catch them (or Fiji).

Scenario 2 - We lose to Aussie and both teams get a BP. We could then get to 16 points if we beat Georgia with a BP. Then its a 3 way tie which could get the rule makers properly agitated. It would probably come down to points difference, whih would be worrying because we didn’t put that many on the board against Portugal.

Scenario 3. We lose to Australia and we get a BP and they don’t. We could then get to 16 points still and tie with Fiji, which would mean we top the pool as the result of our head to head would take primacy in deciding the outcome.

Scenario 4. We beat Australia (or draw). Happy days.

Next weekend is going to be huge. If we can’t beat the Aussies then we need other results to go our way, and perhaps Fiji to take their eye of the ball against Georgia and lose or at least not get a BP.

Damn, I felt slightly dirty hoping for Eddies Jones's team to win that one, but Fiji failing to get 5 points is very helpful (as Australia's losing bonus is unhelpful).

First up, we looked far better against Fiji than Australia did. So on paper we should beat the Aussies. History is against us though, as is our last 15 minutes composure. This is when we could do with AWJ, Tipuric and Owens on the bench to keep things together.

In my head I'm just assuming each of the top teams will get 10 points from the Georgia and Portugal matches. Assuming that, Fiji's finished on 16, Australia has 11 and we have 15 going into the Aus/Wales game. So 2 points wins it for us and 1 point makes it 'interesting'. Yeah I don't like to think what'll happen if we all end up on 16. We'll need a cricket score against Georgia, I guess.

It's a tough call next week whether we should really target 4 tries or completely ignore that and concentrate only on the win. I'd say concentrate 100% on the win, if tries come that's great but a draw or win is all we need and is more under our control.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2023 7:32 pm Damn, I felt slightly dirty hoping for Eddies Jones's team to win that one, but Fiji failing to get 5 points is very helpful (as Australia's losing bonus is unhelpful).

First up, we looked far better against Fiji than Australia did. So on paper we should beat the Aussies. History is against us though, as is our last 15 minutes composure. This is when we could do with AWJ, Tipuric and Owens on the bench to keep things together.

In my head I'm just assuming each of the top teams will get 10 points from the Georgia and Portugal matches. Assuming that, Fiji's finished on 16, Australia has 11 and we have 15 going into the Aus/Wales game. So 2 points wins it for us and 1 point makes it 'interesting'. Yeah I don't like to think what'll happen if we all end up on 16. We'll need a cricket score against Georgia, I guess.

It's a tough call next week whether we should really target 4 tries or completely ignore that and concentrate only on the win. I'd say concentrate 100% on the win, if tries come that's great but a draw or win is all we need and is more under our control.

Our next game is Australia. I’d love a BP win over them

Oh yeah there is the scenario where Aussie wins with 4 points and we get 0. Then Fiji wins the group, Aussie ties with us on 15 but knocks us out because of the head to head.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2023 7:36 pm Oh yeah there is the scenario where Aussie wins with 4 points and we get 0. Then Fiji wins the group, Aussie ties with us on 15 but knocks us out because of the head to head.

Yeah, that would be a cruel way to go out but quite possible.

Fair play, this is a really competitive group! If the groups had been arrange by more recent seedlings, it might not have been this entertaining!

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2023 7:36 pm

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Sun Sep 17, 2023 7:32 pm Damn, I felt slightly dirty hoping for Eddies Jones's team to win that one, but Fiji failing to get 5 points is very helpful (as Australia's losing bonus is unhelpful).

First up, we looked far better against Fiji than Australia did. So on paper we should beat the Aussies. History is against us though, as is our last 15 minutes composure. This is when we could do with AWJ, Tipuric and Owens on the bench to keep things together.

In my head I'm just assuming each of the top teams will get 10 points from the Georgia and Portugal matches. Assuming that, Fiji's finished on 16, Australia has 11 and we have 15 going into the Aus/Wales game. So 2 points wins it for us and 1 point makes it 'interesting'. Yeah I don't like to think what'll happen if we all end up on 16. We'll need a cricket score against Georgia, I guess.

It's a tough call next week whether we should really target 4 tries or completely ignore that and concentrate only on the win. I'd say concentrate 100% on the win, if tries come that's great but a draw or win is all we need and is more under our control.

Our next game is Australia. I’d love a BP win over them

It gets my vote

Aussie has never missed a QF before. Please do this!

Lizard wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 12:11 am Aussie has never missed a QF before. Please do this!

Well we weren’t that bothered really, but now you’ve asked so nicely I’m sure we’ll have a go

I've stopped making predictions because I'm the worst in the world but the formula is simple. We beat Oz and we beat Georgia. Don't worry about what everyone else does. Win the group is our only objective. If we don't we only have ourselves to blame. This is the worst Oz team in living memory, we will never have a better chance. Then we build for the future, job done.

Lizard wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 12:11 am Aussie has never missed a QF before. Please do this!

I’m sure that most neutral supporters would be chuffed to bits if Eddie’s Aussies don’t make the QFs. So, Allez les Gallois!!

We can expect Eddie to throw out a few ‘grenades’ this week to try to unsettle Wales. It will be interesting to see how Gatland reacts.

Australia have their backs against the wall and we really need to dominate them in the first quarter, giving nothing away. They will be seriously revved up and if we can take the sting out of their game early on we have to hope we don’t have to rely on the bench to see out the game. Biggar needs to be on the field for the full eighty.

In case we don't...

If Wales finish on the same number of points as Fiji or Australia, the highest ranked team will be decided by the following criteria:

- Whoever won the match between the two tied teams
-The team with the best points difference
-The team with the best difference between tries scored and tries conceded
-The team with the highest amount of points scored
-The team with the highest amount of tries scored

If three teams are tied on same points, then it goes straight to best points difference ✔

slide rules at the ready. We are more than capable of beating Australia with our best players out on the park. I feel a few more twists and turns coming though, Georgia are no mugs

UKHamlet wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 12:11 pm In case we don't...

If Wales finish on the same number of points as Fiji or Australia, the highest ranked team will be decided by the following criteria:

- Whoever won the match between the two tied teams
-The team with the best points difference
-The team with the best difference between tries scored and tries conceded
-The team with the highest amount of points scored
-The team with the highest amount of tries scored

If three teams are tied on same points, then it goes straight to best points difference ✔

Yep could get complicated which is why the scores for the three teams against Portugal will be so important.

Tuco Ramirez wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 12:44 pm slide rules at the ready. We are more than capable of beating Australia with our best players out on the park. I feel a few more twists and turns coming though, Georgia are no mugs

Agreed. I really don’t want us to be chasing a BP against Georgia.

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 12:45 pm

UKHamlet wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 12:11 pm In case we don't...

If Wales finish on the same number of points as Fiji or Australia, the highest ranked team will be decided by the following criteria:

- Whoever won the match between the two tied teams
-The team with the best points difference
-The team with the best difference between tries scored and tries conceded
-The team with the highest amount of points scored
-The team with the highest amount of tries scored

If three teams are tied on same points, then it goes straight to best points difference ✔

Yep could get complicated which is why the scores for the three teams against Portugal will be so important.

We SHOULD have hammered Portugal with oiur second string. Thats Wales for you though. boils my p1ss

Eddie has tossed his first grenade, saying neither TH Toupou or lock and captain Skelton are unavailable for next Saturday. I wonder if he’s kidding and then announces both are in the side on Thursday.

normanski wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 1:32 pm Eddie has tossed his first grenade, saying neither TH Toupou or lock and captain Skelton are unavailable for next Saturday. I wonder if he’s kidding and then announces both are in the side on Thursday.

Yeah, I thought that too. It was way too straight an answer, given that they've spent the week pretending that Skelton was going to play versus Fiji before suddenly withdrawing him just before the match.

Puja

Tuco Ramirez wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 12:46 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 12:45 pm

UKHamlet wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 12:11 pm In case we don't...

If Wales finish on the same number of points as Fiji or Australia, the highest ranked team will be decided by the following criteria:

- Whoever won the match between the two tied teams
-The team with the best points difference
-The team with the best difference between tries scored and tries conceded
-The team with the highest amount of points scored
-The team with the highest amount of tries scored

If three teams are tied on same points, then it goes straight to best points difference ✔

Yep could get complicated which is why the scores for the three teams against Portugal will be so important.

We SHOULD have hammered Portugal with oiur second string. Thats Wales for you though. boils my p1ss

Our second string can't never be relied on for that*. But what we do have now is a well rested first string. And Faletau (who doesn't need rest). Beating Australia is more important than a big score against Portugal.


* Not even sure pur first can either, half the time.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 3:03 pm

Tuco Ramirez wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 12:46 pm

Sandydragon wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 12:45 pm
Yep could get complicated which is why the scores for the three teams against Portugal will be so important.

We SHOULD have hammered Portugal with oiur second string. Thats Wales for you though. boils my p1ss

Our second string can't never be relied on for that*. But what we do have now is a well rested first string. And Faletau (who doesn't need rest). Beating Australia is more important than a big score against Portugal.


* Not even sure pur first can either, half the time.

Don't do no parking here..

UKHamlet wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 12:11 pm In case we don't...

If Wales finish on the same number of points as Fiji or Australia, the highest ranked team will be decided by the following criteria:

- Whoever won the match between the two tied teams
-The team with the best points difference
-The team with the best difference between tries scored and tries conceded
-The team with the highest amount of points scored
-The team with the highest amount of tries scored

If three teams are tied on same points, then it goes straight to best points difference ✔

One further (vital) detail:

For clarification, in the case of a tie between three or more Teams at the end of the pool phase, once the highest ranked Team has been determined following the above criteria, to determine the next higher ranked Team the process would repeat, starting at the first criterion.

So the order of the second and third teams in a three way tie would probably be down to their head-to-head.

There’s only one way to end these infernal calculations - beat the Aussies this weekend.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2023 12:32 pm

UKHamlet wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 12:11 pm In case we don't...

If Wales finish on the same number of points as Fiji or Australia, the highest ranked team will be decided by the following criteria:

- Whoever won the match between the two tied teams
-The team with the best points difference
-The team with the best difference between tries scored and tries conceded
-The team with the highest amount of points scored
-The team with the highest amount of tries scored

If three teams are tied on same points, then it goes straight to best points difference ✔

One further (vital) detail:

For clarification, in the case of a tie between three or more Teams at the end of the pool phase, once the highest ranked Team has been determined following the above criteria, to determine the next higher ranked Team the process would repeat, starting at the first criterion.

So the order of the second and third teams in a three way tie would probably be down to their head-to-head.

So, if all three of you end up on equal points, but the points difference goes 1) Aus, 2) Fij, 3) Wal, it would be Australia and Wales to go through because you beat Fiji? That'd be controversial.

Agreed with normanski - go out and beat Australia to avoid any further permutations. I think the world will be on the Welsh side this weekend.

Puja

If we aren't good enough beat this Aus team, then the quarters are irrelevant as we won't be good enough to beat anyone else either.

Puja wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2023 1:10 pm

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Tue Sep 19, 2023 12:32 pm

UKHamlet wrote: ↑Mon Sep 18, 2023 12:11 pm In case we don't...

If Wales finish on the same number of points as Fiji or Australia, the highest ranked team will be decided by the following criteria:

- Whoever won the match between the two tied teams
-The team with the best points difference
-The team with the best difference between tries scored and tries conceded
-The team with the highest amount of points scored
-The team with the highest amount of tries scored

If three teams are tied on same points, then it goes straight to best points difference ✔

One further (vital) detail:

For clarification, in the case of a tie between three or more Teams at the end of the pool phase, once the highest ranked Team has been determined following the above criteria, to determine the next higher ranked Team the process would repeat, starting at the first criterion.

So the order of the second and third teams in a three way tie would probably be down to their head-to-head.

So, if all three of you end up on equal points, but the points difference goes 1) Aus, 2) Fij, 3) Wal, it would be Australia and Wales to go through because you beat Fiji? That'd be controversial.

Agreed with normanski - go out and beat Australia to avoid any further permutations. I think the world will be on the Welsh side this weekend.

Puja

Not sure why that should be more controversial than any other permutation, but the scenario that gives me nightmares is Australia and Wales being 2nd and 3rd. But I think head-to-head should never matter in these round-robin calculations. It always makes things ridiculously complicated and why should it matter more than points difference anyway?

Yeah, beat Australia and win the group without any questions, that would be ideal. And would take pressure off the Georgia game. Right, we'll do that then.