RugbyRebels

I feel like we need a thread about this.

This Sunday the first round of the French parliamentary elections will take place. National Rally is on 34%.
https://www.politico.eu/europe-poll-of-polls/france/

What consequences will this have for Europe?

Zhivago wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 2:08 pmWhat consequences will this have for Europe?

Bad ones.

But it looks like everyone wants a go at handing control to the much-further-right populists, to see if it works out better than every other time it's been tried.

Maybe... maybe USA and UK got lucky with Trump1 and Johnson being too lazy & incompetent?

Which Tyler wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 2:25 pm

Zhivago wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 2:08 pmWhat consequences will this have for Europe?

Bad ones.

But it looks like everyone wants a go at handing control to the much-further-right populists, to see if it works out better than every other time it's been tried.

Maybe... maybe USA and UK got lucky with Trump1 and Johnson being too lazy & incompetent?

O tempora o mores!

Yes, maybe we got lucky. We seem to be on a completely opposite track to the rest. Very strange situation. Everyone else is going rightwards and we're heading leftwards.

"Ye" largely kicked this off with brexit! (Not being very serious on this the French hard right predates brexit considerably?

Well certainly other populists took note

Migration from Syria/Ukraine etc (looking at you vlad) has been a huge factor

Bardella just looks like a horrible person

Swing to right didn't happen as bad as expected in Ireland but it could dlip further in national elections sometime in next 9 months

Zhivago wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 4:23 pm

Which Tyler wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 2:25 pm

Zhivago wrote: ↑Tue Jun 25, 2024 2:08 pmWhat consequences will this have for Europe?

Bad ones.

But it looks like everyone wants a go at handing control to the much-further-right populists, to see if it works out better than every other time it's been tried.

Maybe... maybe USA and UK got lucky with Trump1 and Johnson being too lazy & incompetent?

O tempora o mores!

Yes, maybe we got lucky. We seem to be on a completely opposite track to the rest. Very strange situation. Everyone else is going rightwards and we're heading leftwards.

Could argue that FPTP meant that we were stuck with our right-wing party for far too long, giving the public ample time (far too much of it) to see what a bunch of corrupt incompetents they are. Unfortunately this knowledge was gained at a very high cost. We look like we're heading for some respite but our own fascist genie is out of the bottle.

Easy to see the direction this takes Europe, hard to see how far along that road it will go.

A more Putin-friendly Europe, disaster for Ukraine (although that may be decided by the US in November), possibly for the Baltic states too. A Europe that seeks scapegoats, particularly migrants, particularly the non-white variety. A more unequal Europe. Whether governments in the major European are able to create Orbán- or Putin-esque semi-dictatorships depends on the strength of their democratic systems . . .

We're going to continue to see a lurch to the right considering so many people are absolutely in the crapper over jobs, cost of living, and other issues.

And the left have been appalling politically over the past decade.

You could say that Hungary somewhat led the way in this move toward fascism, and with the rise of a new "humanist right wing" in Peter Magyar, could be providing the blueprint for other European countries. We'll see.

TFFT
Exit polls have the (leftist) NFP as the biggest alliance, and the (centrist) Ensemble in 2nd place. Far-right RN in 3rd and (rightist) Les Republicans a distant 4th.
No overall majority, or even particularly close.

Now to see if A] it's accurate (the politicians seem to think so) and B] If those groups can find a way of working well enough together to form a coalition that lasts more than 3 weeks (though we all said the same in 2010 in the UK) or C] Macron appoints a temporary "go ernment of experts" to hold for the 12 month minimum before they can hold another GE

I think that's all the options - the French system is a touch Byzantine, and really not set up to deal with a hung parliament - and has no precedent of such to fall back on

This sort of thing where the fascists and nazis get a massive boost in the first round and then get their shit wrecked in the later rounds happens every now and then in French elections.

Hopefully exit polls are correct

Yes, but never to this extent, and it's hardly "getting their shit destroyed" if the exit polls are accurate

It's not the result Macron wanted but it's about as good as we could hope for. Hope he appoints a Prime Minister from the left (ie he doesn't sabotage the whole thing).

Which Tyler wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 10:17 pm Yes, but never to this extent, and it's hardly "getting their shit destroyed" if the exit polls are accurate

Still, a huge turnaround and worth celebrating. The turnout figures suggest that enough of the French population looked at the incoming fascism from the first round and though, "Shit, I'd better actually vote this time." Hopefully that will continue going forwards.

Puja

Puja wrote: ↑Mon Jul 08, 2024 12:16 am

Which Tyler wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 10:17 pm Yes, but never to this extent, and it's hardly "getting their shit destroyed" if the exit polls are accurate

Still, a huge turnaround and worth celebrating. The turnout figures suggest that enough of the French population looked at the incoming fascism from the first round and though, "Shit, I'd better actually vote this time." Hopefully that will continue going forwards.

Puja

tell Mikey

cashead wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 9:27 pm This sort of thing where the fascists and nazis get a massive boost in the first round and then get their shit wrecked in the later rounds happens every now and then in French elections.

Gaining 54 seats is sadly not a shit wrecking. Thankfully people seemed to have realised the danger and voted tactically. But there remains a significant future threat.

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Sun Jul 07, 2024 11:19 pm It's not the result Macron wanted but it's about as good as we could hope for. Hope he appoints a Prime Minister from the left (ie he doesn't sabotage the whole thing).

Looks like Macron is defying democracy, refusing to select left wing bloc's candidate for PM. Not a complete surprise though. The arrogant fool seems to want the far right to win the whole thing next time.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/artic ... -coalition

Well, he's trying to split both left and right wing alliances.
Can't fully blame him for trying (even if I disagree - strongly), but he really needs to give up on that after the first time or two of being told to sod off. He's up to what? 4 attempts now?

Macron selects the leader of the right wing party that came 4th as prime minister. And I thought the UK had a poor excuse for democracy.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/artic ... ter-france

Anything to exclude the left from power.

Expect a lost vote of no confidence at the first available opportunity.
He'll probably have a shorter term as PM than Truss

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 4:59 pm Macron selects the leader of the right wing party that came 4th as prime minister. And I thought the UK had a poor excuse for democracy.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/artic ... ter-france

Anything to exclude the left from power.

Incredible. Ran the last leg of the election with tactical voting from centre to left and left to centre in order to keep the fascists out, then stabs the left in the back the minute the election is over, finishing up with getting an "acceptable" PM over the line by getting the support of the fascists. Even for a politician, that's an incredible dearth of morals.

I hadn't realised that Barnier had gone full-Farage in his politics since finishing dealing with Brexit. Suggests we're contagious.

Puja

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 4:59 pm
Anything to exclude the left from power.

Agreed

Mellsblue wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 7:23 pm

Son of Mathonwy wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 4:59 pm
Anything to exclude the left from power.

Agreed

Normally a decent plan. Unless the alternative is Le Pen.

Oh look. Who would have thought that a PM no-one wanted would be ousted in Trussian speed?!?

Surely Macron HAS to give power to the left now...

He won't, though, he's become toxic.

Which Tyler wrote: ↑Thu Sep 05, 2024 5:45 pm Expect a lost vote of no confidence at the first available opportunity.
He'll probably have a shorter term as PM than Truss

Quite honestly, I'm impressed - I didn't think he had 3 months in him.