2018 World Cup poll

[rowan]

I'd hate to brag or anything, but looks like my pick is the only team still left in this . . .

[rowan]

France versus 1/6 of Yugoslavia in the final. Croatia are the smallest nation to reach the final in 68 years! Some of my earlier comments, notably on Croatia and England, are now looking prophetic - though I got it completely wrong with Germany (as most of the world probably did):

Probably you're right, but I just have a sneaking suspicion England could have a great tournament. No, they won't win it, but the fact they are being written off means the pressure is completely off them, and they might just thrive on that. With a little luck in the playoffs (ie avoiding the big guns), they could perhaps scrape into the semis - for just the third time in their history.

Meanwhile, the opposite applies to France. There are high expectations, the pressure is upon them, and I foresee the distinct possibility of a similar scenario to 2002 when they turned up as defending champs and failed to get out of what looked like a fairly easy group. I've picked them regardless.

But the conditions will reall suit the Germans. Were they to win, they would equal Brazil with 5 titles, and also become just the third team to successfully defend the trophy - Brazil having done so in 1962 and Italy in 1938.

Argentina are another team I'm expecting to do well. It all depends on whether they can use Messi as effectively as Barca do. This will be his last chance to win the big prize and truly earn his place among the pantheon of football gods, alongside Pele & Maradona et al.

Some have installed Brazil as favourites but I don't think so, and especially not in Russia. They'll dip out in the first or second round of play-offs. Christian Ronaldo might lead his Portuguese team that far as well, but won't have the players around him to go any further.

A couple of good bets for a surprise appearance in the semis could be Croatia (who have bee there once before) and Colombia (who haven't).

[rowan]

Anybody picking Croatia? I'd love to see it. But they've had a grueling run to the playoffs and I think France will take it 4-1.

[Adder]

Anybody picking Croatia? I'd love to see it. But they've had a grueling run to the playoffs and I think France will take it 4-1.

Croatia have shown spirit and are now used to getting back in the game. However France will be a more powerful better version of England.
France +2

[rowan]

Upsets are very rare in World Cup finals, with 1998 probably the only major one since the 1950s, when Uruguay and Germany sprung a couple of surprises. & generally - a little surprisingly, given the competitiveness and unpredictability of the tournament down the ages - there is a clear favorite in the final. 2006 aside, I can't think of another obvious exception in the post-War era. Perhaps 82. Not 86 because the South American team always won in the Western Hemisphere in those days, and not 74 0r 78 either, because that great Dutch team had the misfortune to encounter the host nation both times. Anyway, this augurs very well for France, and were diminutive Croatia to overcome them this weekend that might just go down as the greatest upset in the history of World Cup finals - even ahead of 98. The possible exception, 1950 - when Uruguay stunned Brazil in front of 200,000 spectactors in the Maracana, was a round-robin finale, but technically not the final.

[kk67]

Cool poll.

[rowan]

& the winner is . . . moi !!

Hopefully my pick on the Super Rugby Winner 2018 poll will prove as prophetic